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Questioning PP stats

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Old
12-16-2005, 09:45 AM
  #1
abev
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Questioning PP stats

So many fans/media want to jump on the PP/PK bandwagon. I am not a true believer.

Consider this: the Rangers are 19th in the NHL (32 for 198) on the PP for a 16.1%. But the separation between the Rangers at 19th place and the Flyers at 10th place (at 18.6%) is only 5 goals.

"5 goals Abev? Thats alot", you say. Well I am not so sure. In the 166 PP chances that the Rangers did not score, all they would have needed was 1 goal every 33 chances to get themselves in 10th place.

Now while I am saying *all* they need was 5 more goals to get to a respectable PP, you say: "Thats just it, that *is* the difference between a good and bad PP". I kinda believe it comes down to a good bounce here or there. Asking for 1 more goal every 4 or 5 games is not out of the question.

Before you say scoring on the PP is the key to winning, consider this: The Minnesota Wild are 7th in the NHL on the PP at 19.5% (33-169). The Wild are in last place in the Northwest at 12-15-4 with 28 pts.

Now I am not saying to throw out the PP stat totally, but I just think too much emphasis is put on PP stats. It's one small part of the big stat picture.

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12-16-2005, 09:49 AM
  #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by abev
So many fans/media want to jump on the PP/PK bandwagon. I am not a true believer.

Consider this: the Rangers are 19th in the NHL (32 for 198) on the PP for a 16.1%. But the separation between the Rangers at 19th place and the Flyers at 10th place (at 18.6%) is only 5 goals.

"5 goals Abev? Thats alot", you say. Well I am not so sure. In the 166 PP chances that the Rangers did not score, all they would have needed was 1 goal every 33 chances to get themselves in 10th place.

Now while I am saying *all* they need was 5 more goals to get to a respectable PP, you say: "Thats just it, that *is* the difference between a good and bad PP". I kinda believe it comes down to a good bounce here or there. Asking for 1 more goal every 4 or 5 games is not out of the question.

Before you say scoring on the PP is the key to winning, consider this: The Minnesota Wild are 7th in the NHL on the PP at 19.5% (33-169). The Wild are in last place in the Northwest at 12-15-4 with 28 pts.

Now I am not saying to throw out the PP stat totally, but I just think too much emphasis is put on PP stats. It's one small part of the big stat picture.

I agree with you. However, I think the way we haven't been producing lately is largely due to the fact that our powerplay has been dormant. We are almost better off without a powerplay because then we cycle and work hard in the corners. On the powerplay we stand still and pass the puck back and forth. There's gotta be some other plan the coaching staff can work on with the PP units. I don't understand why we havent' seen a significant change in the PP style or some set plays tried.

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12-16-2005, 10:26 AM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by abev
So many fans/media want to jump on the PP/PK bandwagon. I am not a true believer.

Consider this: the Rangers are 19th in the NHL (32 for 198) on the PP for a 16.1%. But the separation between the Rangers at 19th place and the Flyers at 10th place (at 18.6%) is only 5 goals.

"5 goals Abev? Thats alot", you say. Well I am not so sure. In the 166 PP chances that the Rangers did not score, all they would have needed was 1 goal every 33 chances to get themselves in 10th place.

Now while I am saying *all* they need was 5 more goals to get to a respectable PP, you say: "Thats just it, that *is* the difference between a good and bad PP". I kinda believe it comes down to a good bounce here or there. Asking for 1 more goal every 4 or 5 games is not out of the question.

Before you say scoring on the PP is the key to winning, consider this: The Minnesota Wild are 7th in the NHL on the PP at 19.5% (33-169). The Wild are in last place in the Northwest at 12-15-4 with 28 pts.

Now I am not saying to throw out the PP stat totally, but I just think too much emphasis is put on PP stats. It's one small part of the big stat picture.

Consider this:

The Rangers have lost 9 games by one goal:

10/8 vs. MON (4-3 in OT)
10/8 vs. NJD (3-2 in OT)
10/10 vs. WAS (3-2)
10/19 vs. NYI (3-2 in OT)
10/20 vs. NYI (5-4)
11/7 vs. PIT (3-2)
11/15 vs. TOR (2-1)
12/7 vs. CHI (2-1 in OT)
12/13 vs. VAN (3-2)

Now, add in five goals over that stretch and the Rangers could have won or earned a point in over half those games.

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12-16-2005, 12:05 PM
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DutchShamrock
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Another thing to consider is that with the increase of penalties being called, some power plays only last 17 seconds or so, seriously driving down PP efficiency. Now, its true that you deserve to suck on the PP if you take penalties during it, but it is also punishing your PP numbers if your PK draws one. I'm not so bothered by the PP being under 20%. It is true, however, that this is the scenerio throughout the league. So 19th overall is 19th overall. "Shoooooot!" God I hate hearing that at games.

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Old
12-16-2005, 12:17 PM
  #5
Fletch
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Freakin' Singin'

took my post. Ditto what he said...

Consider this too...even though some PPs last for shorter periods of time (which has always been the case), but since you make this point, wouldn't it make sense that we're seeing more 5-on-3s as a result and those effects should wash each other out.

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Old
12-16-2005, 01:57 PM
  #6
abev
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There needs to be "PP goals per minute of PP" stat. Nothing like that Ranger PP only to be followed up with a Rangers penalty 20 seconds later.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Singn
The Rangers have lost 9 games by one goal:

10/8 vs. MON (4-3 in OT)
10/8 vs. NJD (3-2 in OT)
10/10 vs. WAS (3-2)
10/19 vs. NYI (3-2 in OT)
10/20 vs. NYI (5-4)
11/7 vs. PIT (3-2)
11/15 vs. TOR (2-1)
12/7 vs. CHI (2-1 in OT)
12/13 vs. VAN (3-2)
Vs Mon - PP 1-6
Vs NJD - PP 1-8
Vs WAS - PP 2-8
Vs NYI - PP 1-8
Vs NYI - PP 2-6
Vs PIT - PP 0-7
Vs TOR - PP 0-4
Vs CHI - PP 0-9
Vs VAN - PP 1-5

Good point Singn. Lets take it a step further. During these games the Rangers were 8-61(13.1%). Not good. So lets imagine one more goal during these games 17-61(27.9%). Alot to ask.

Even when your team already has 1 PP that night, asking for 2 PP goals in a night (statistically) is not very probable. The average penalties given is about 7; 2-7 on the PP is pretty darn good (28.6%).

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12-16-2005, 02:02 PM
  #7
Fletch
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That stat's not perfect...

but it is probably smoothed-out in the sense that other teams have PPs cut short too. The PPGs/PP minutes is a tough stat because if you score, the PP is obviously shorter than the two minutes - often significantly shorter. While the current stat isn't all encompassing, it's pretty close to an apples to apples comparison.

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Old
12-16-2005, 02:36 PM
  #8
NYR469
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the problem isn't simply success rate. obviously thats the stat, but sometimes you get an 0 for 1 on the pp because a pker drew a penalty and you end up with a :20 pp or something like that...

you can't score on every pp, in fact even a good pp will fail to score the majority of the time. but the thing that good pps do that ours doesn't is generate chances and create momentum. if your pp gets 2:00 of setup time and gets 7 shots on goal and forced the other teams goal to make some big saves, maybe hits a post then even if they don't score suddenly the 'ice is slanted' toward that end of the ice even after the pp ends...

but when our pp takes 1:35 just to get setup in the zone and then only manages 1 weak shot on goal suddenly the team killing the penalty gets the momentum...

not to mention the fact that if your pp scares the other team you have more room to work at evenstrength. against the rangers its easier to prevent them from scoring when shorthanded. in fact its so pathetic imo that if i was the other team and protecting a 1 goal lead i'd tell my team to take penalties because each one guarantees 2:00 without the rangers scoring.

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