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Old
03-22-2017, 05:39 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Why did Sumter walk? Why did Hutton walk (they wanted to re-sign him)? Why do any free agents walk?

Answer: Location, Money, internal conflicts with the team/management, or a better chance to win. The reason can be any of these or any combination of them. If Nashville gets bounced in round 1 this year and next, Neal may think he has a better chance elsewhere. It doesn't matter who we have on the roster if we aren't getting results.
I was being sarcastic. Should have used the smilie there

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03-22-2017, 06:05 PM
  #102
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Neal is pretty simple either way, if he doesn't sign before the deadline you trade him in that last year. Either way you either get the player or you get good assests, unlike in the expansion draft where you just lose.


Besides Smith has the show, we all know that thing is the kiss of death rofl.

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03-22-2017, 06:44 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Then he walks next year and we are out 2 guys.
So you give away one of the best pure goal scoring wingers in the entire league for free because he might leave for free agency in a year? Excellent asset management

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03-22-2017, 07:07 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
So you give away one of the best pure goal scoring wingers in the entire league for free because he might leave for free agency in a year? Excellent asset management
He's good but this may be a liiiittle bit too complimentary. And yes I'm aware of the 20 goal stat. Don't get me wrong but I don't think he's elite and to be one of the best it implies you're elite.

BTW, wouldn't there be a chance that we protect, say, Jarnkrok over Neal and Vegas still goes with Wilson? I know Neal has name power but Wilson has the more stable contract. Of course I doubt Neal would re-sign with a team that didn't protect him but it would be nice to have him and Calle for another year if that happened.

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03-22-2017, 07:20 PM
  #105
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He's good but this may be a liiiittle bit too complimentary. And yes I'm aware of the 20 goal stat. Don't get me wrong but I don't think he's elite and to be one of the best it implies you're elite.

BTW, wouldn't there be a chance that we protect, say, Jarnkrok over Neal and Vegas still goes with Wilson? I know Neal has name power but Wilson has the more stable contract. Of course I doubt Neal would re-sign with a team that didn't protect him but it would be nice to have him and Calle for another year if that happened.
He's had a bit of a rough year this year, but I think his hand/wrist injury had a lot to do with that. Last year, 9 wingers scored more goals than Neal. From 2010-today, only 9 wingers have more goals (and one of those has 1 more goal in 61 more games played...). If that isn't one of the best, please tell me what is.

And no, there is literally zero chance that Vegas takes Wilson over Neal. Worst case they get ~60 games of Neal and a 1st+ at the deadline, that's a no-brainer.


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03-22-2017, 09:01 PM
  #106
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I get the love for Jarnkrok to some degree but the thing that never gets brought up in these discussions is his playoff performance or lack thereof. He has shown growth in his game this season and that's great, love to see that. However, until he proves he can be reliable in the playoffs, Neal and Wilson are more valuable to this team moving forward. The team absorbs the loss of him or Smith to LV. The team gets hurt if we lose Neal or Wilson.

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03-23-2017, 01:25 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by ILikeItILoveIt View Post
We will almost definitely protect 4D and 4F + 1 Goalie. That means our Top 4 D (PK, Josi, Ellis, Eck), forwards Forsberg, Neal, Arvy, and Joey, and Peks.

So the candidates are:
Smith ($4.25mm) signed for 3 more years after this year
Willie ($3.94mm) signed for 2 more years
Callie (($2.00mm) signed for 5 more years

Stats:
Smith 9G 11A 20Pts -2
Willie 12G 17A 29Pts +3
Callie 14G 14A 28Pts -4

Thoughts:
Willie is the strongest on paper. High draft pick, power forward, playoff success, perennial upside, decent contract. Downside is staying healthy, inconsistency, and least contract remaining of the group.

Callie comes in a strong 2nd. Versatility is his biggest attribute. Smartest hockey player of the 3. Would fill many roles on an expansion team. Outstanding contract with longest contract life.

Smith has the best goal scoring resume of the 3, until this year. Fastest of the bunch. Has upside. Contract is on the high end for this year's production, but not for his history.

The Preds would prefer losing Smith. That probably won't happen. It'll be one of the others. Losing Callie would hurt the most considering everything he does and 5 more years of it at $2mm per year.

Another alternative is to leave Neal unprotected. He has a No Trade Clause in his contract, as opposed to a No Movement Clause. You don't have to protect NTC guys so Preds do have the option to leave him unprotected. He's got a relatively cheap contract ($5mm) but only one year left. If I were Poile, I'd try to sign Neal to more years before the expansion draft. If I couldn't, I'd leave him unprotected and protect Callie. If you can't sign him now, you won't sign him as a UFA the following year (learn from Suter). If Neal signs for more years, then be prepared to lose Callie or Willie.
Wilson - Not sheltered nor exposed (In a role sense). Solid defensive player with good contract and great upside.

Jarnkrok - Plays a defensive exposed role yet excels and produces well. Has the longest and cheapest and for this case the best contract out of three.

Smith - Worst defensively of the three, plays a very sheltered role. Usually the best offensively of the three, but this year he's been dreadful in that department, and could be a huge reason why Vegas stays away from him. Not a bad contract, but a bad contract for Vegas to take when Wilson and Jarnkrok are available.

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03-23-2017, 01:28 AM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Why did Sumter walk? Why did Hutton walk (they wanted to re-sign him)? Why do any free agents walk?

Answer: Location, Money, internal conflicts with the team/management, or a better chance to win. The reason can be any of these or any combination of them. If Nashville gets bounced in round 1 this year and next, Neal may think he has a better chance elsewhere. It doesn't matter who we have on the roster if we aren't getting results.
I'm really not trying to sound like an arrogant and ignorant d***he right now, but why would anyone choose to live in St. Louis over Nashville? You really think we couldn't offer more than the money the Blues offered Hutton? It's probably internal conflicts, and although St. Louis does not have a better chance than us to win it all, St. Louis's defense is far better (And I don't mean blueline), so Hutton probably feels safer playing for the Blues if he ever had to be relied on.

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03-23-2017, 03:28 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
I get the love for Jarnkrok to some degree but the thing that never gets brought up in these discussions is his playoff performance or lack thereof. He has shown growth in his game this season and that's great, love to see that. However, until he proves he can be reliable in the playoffs, Neal and Wilson are more valuable to this team moving forward. The team absorbs the loss of him or Smith to LV. The team gets hurt if we lose Neal or Wilson.
Amen.

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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Why did Sumter walk? Why did Hutton walk (they wanted to re-sign him)? Why do any free agents walk?

Answer: Location, Money, internal conflicts with the team/management, or a better chance to win. The reason can be any of these or any combination of them. If Nashville gets bounced in round 1 this year and next, Neal may think he has a better chance elsewhere. It doesn't matter who we have on the roster if we aren't getting results.
I don't recall them wanting to sign Hutton. I thought they were ready to give the Maz/Saros combo a go.

Neal's time here has been productive and especially if we land a guy like Duchene we can surround him with elite centers for the rest of his career.

Yes, I agree with you that the roster doesn't hold much weight if we don't succeed. But we've made the playoffs both times and will be doing so for the 3rd straight time. And, we've made progress there, first the WCQF and the second time we made it to the Game 7 of the WCSF.

And he's probably looking for raise, and we're willing/capable of giving him that. But are there really better teams than us ready to do so? He's part of the leadership group here which I think he enjoys.

I'd say there's little chance he walks.

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03-23-2017, 07:39 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by RainierBeat View Post
Wilson - Not sheltered nor exposed (In a role sense). Solid defensive player with good contract and great upside.
Wilson has played at least half of the last several years on the same line as Smith. It was only this year when they have been split for most of the year. Yes changes have been made off and on but Smith has had some of his better success while paired with Wilson. Calling Smith exposed and saying Wilson isn't is kind of silly.

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Amen.

I don't recall them wanting to sign Hutton. I thought they were ready to give the Maz/Saros combo a go.

Neal's time here has been productive and especially if we land a guy like Duchene we can surround him with elite centers for the rest of his career.

Yes, I agree with you that the roster doesn't hold much weight if we don't succeed. But we've made the playoffs both times and will be doing so for the 3rd straight time. And, we've made progress there, first the WCQF and the second time we made it to the Game 7 of the WCSF.
NashvillePredators.comPoile says he continues to speak with Hutton’s agent, but the netminder may ultimately move in a different direction.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/news/p...sberg/c-885939



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Originally Posted by Scoresberg View Post
And he's probably looking for raise, and we're willing/capable of giving him that. But are there really better teams than us ready to do so? He's part of the leadership group here which I think he enjoys.

I'd say there's little chance he walks.
Are we capable of giving him a raise? This all depends on 1) How much Johansen gets, 2) Who we sign this summer, 3) Who we lose in expansion draft, and 4) what the cap is next summer.

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03-23-2017, 08:28 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Wilson has played at least half of the last several years on the same line as Smith. It was only this year when they have been split for most of the year. Yes changes have been made off and on but Smith has had some of his better success while paired with Wilson. Calling Smith exposed and saying Wilson isn't is kind of silly.



NashvillePredators.comPoile says he continues to speak with Hutton’s agent, but the netminder may ultimately move in a different direction.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/news/p...sberg/c-885939





Are we capable of giving him a raise? This all depends on 1) How much Johansen gets, 2) Who we sign this summer, 3) Who we lose in expansion draft, and 4) what the cap is next summer.
Smith, Ribeiro, and Forsberg were sheltered with almost no defensive zone responsibilities last season, and a lot of offensive chances. Jarnkrok has always been exposed with more defensive assignments. Wilson is a mixed bag. Neither Smith nor Wilson are that great defensive and I'd say both are at best only average, but Wilson is definitely more superior and isn't a liability unlike Smith and especially Ribeiro.

For forwards:
Fisher
Jarnkrok
Forsberg
Arvidsson
Neal

Are our top 5 best defensive forwards. Compare that to every team not named Dallas and Colorado in our division and our defensive play from forwards is relatively weak lol (Although Winnipeg's forwards while better defensively make a lot of boneheaded plays, so we have a slight advantage there).

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03-23-2017, 08:45 AM
  #112
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I don't know how you can say Watson isn't one of our best defensive forwards, he's well above Arviddsson and Neal for sure. I'd also say Forsberg is as good as Fisher now and Jarnkrok is better than both. But I use the eye test and not some stat to generate my opinion.

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03-23-2017, 09:06 AM
  #113
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Wilson and Smith while not great defensively are sure as hell not liabilities. Ribeiro was. Fiala to some extent is. Joey has bad looks defensively. McLeod slow as a turtle is bad defensively.

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03-23-2017, 09:11 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Wilson has played at least half of the last several years on the same line as Smith. It was only this year when they have been split for most of the year. Yes changes have been made off and on but Smith has had some of his better success while paired with Wilson. Calling Smith exposed and saying Wilson isn't is kind of silly.
Wrong. Last season Wilson spent just about 50% of his ice time with Fisher, who played pretty tough minutes. Smith spent 73.3% of his time with Ribiero who played incredibly easy minutes. Wilson and Smith did play together a bit (24% of Smith's Ice time), which is why Wilson is right around the middle for easy/tough minutes and competition. Make no mistake though, almost all of Craig Smith's minutes were against easier competition in offensive situations. It's the same story the prior year as well, 25% of Smith's ice time was spent with Wilson, most of the rest with Ribeiro. So not only is it not silly, it's 100% true...

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Originally Posted by Scoresberg View Post
Wilson and Smith while not great defensively are sure as hell not liabilities. Ribeiro was. Fiala to some extent is. Joey has bad looks defensively. McLeod slow as a turtle is bad defensively.
Smith is a liability defensively in my opinion, good forechecker, bad defensively. Wilson isn't, though he's not very good. Ribeiro was a train-wreck and Johansen is actually pretty good most of the time.

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03-23-2017, 09:12 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post




Are we capable of giving him a raise? This all depends on 1) How much Johansen gets, 2) Who we sign this summer, 3) Who we lose in expansion draft, and 4) what the cap is next summer.
We're talking about a raise of $1-1.5M dollars so yeah I think we are capable. If not, then something has gone south and fast.

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03-23-2017, 09:46 AM
  #116
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i wouldn't call smith a liability defensively. for a forward (and every other position to a lesser degree), offense is primarily skill and instinct, while defense is primarily effort and positioning. effort has never been one of smith's problems. execution yes. passing yes. puck handling yes. but never effort.

one can make the pure stat argument (which i hate) that 'he played' easy minutes because he was lined with ribeiro because of the number of offensive zone starts ribeiro got (because of ribeiro's obvious faceoff/defensive awfulness), but honestly, when one was lined with ribeiro he probably had to play tougher defensive minutes when the puck entered our zone than normal because ribeiro stopped playing defense once the puck crossed our blueline.

as a forward, smith's few defensive responsibilities include forechecking (which he is good at), covering the defenseman on the point (where he is no worse than any of our forwards honestly), and winning puck battles along the boards and then clearing the puck up the boards (where he isn't the best, but is probably better than most of our smaller forwards). it's not like he's a centerman asked to cover down low every shift.

again. i get the smith disgust this year (which to some degree is also tied to ribeiro failing, who he depended on to put the puck on his stick time after time in good scoring positions). i'm fine with him going away after this year. but one doesn't have to come up with other reasons other than his goal scoring failure for the salary he makes.

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03-23-2017, 09:48 AM
  #117
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We're talking about a raise of $1-1.5M dollars so yeah I think we are capable. If not, then something has gone south and fast.
We are far from anything remotely considered "cap trouble". Why people want to penny pinch on the long term contract for our team leader in points I do not understand. Our entire defense corps is on contracts unworthy of their actual value in a good way.

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03-23-2017, 10:40 AM
  #118
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i wouldn't call smith a liability defensively. for a forward (and every other position to a lesser degree), offense is primarily skill and instinct, while defense is primarily effort and positioning. effort has never been one of smith's problems. execution yes. passing yes. puck handling yes. but never effort.

one can make the pure stat argument (which i hate) that 'he played' easy minutes because he was lined with ribeiro because of the number of offensive zone starts ribeiro got (because of ribeiro's obvious faceoff/defensive awfulness), but honestly, when one was lined with ribeiro he probably had to play tougher defensive minutes when the puck entered our zone than normal because ribeiro stopped playing defense once the puck crossed our blueline.

as a forward, smith's few defensive responsibilities include forechecking (which he is good at), covering the defenseman on the point (where he is no worse than any of our forwards honestly), and winning puck battles along the boards and then clearing the puck up the boards (where he isn't the best, but is probably better than most of our smaller forwards). it's not like he's a centerman asked to cover down low every shift.

again. i get the smith disgust this year (which to some degree is also tied to ribeiro failing, who he depended on to put the puck on his stick time after time in good scoring positions). i'm fine with him going away after this year. but one doesn't have to come up with other reasons other than his goal scoring failure for the salary he makes.
No need to make anything up, he isn't at all good defensively in my opinion. He's a fine forechecker (which isn't much of an accomplishment) and middling at puck battles, that's all I could say in his favor. Defense is effort to a degree, but a good deal is also "hockey sense" regarding reading the play and positioning and this is where his greatest failure is. I'll agree that being poor defensively as a winger isn't really that big of a deal, and plenty of wingers are bad defensively, but he is certainly one of them.

I also don't agree with attributing his failures to Ribeiro's problems much at all. During Smith's best season to date (13-14) his most common linemates were Gabriel Borque, Nick Spaling, David Legwand and Matt Cullen, in that order. It's much more than a Ribeiro problem if he put up 24 goals and 50+ points with those guys. He even had 42 points at even strength, I honestly can't explain his failures.

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03-23-2017, 10:41 AM
  #119
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As a defenseman, I think the 2 things I value the most with my wingers is forechecking and covering the point man. If you're chasing a winger downlow in the defensive zone, you're not helping me, in fact you've put me in a bind and we're now going to get cycled on. You should only be down low if you're covering the defenseman who has moved down low, and then only if the winger did not cycling into the position on the point.

If you're not forechecking, the wingers are coming at me with all the speed in the world and I'm expected to cover them while skating and moving backwards, which makes gap control almost impossible. Sure, I can cut the angle but only if I can do it before the blueline, if I try and miss though, I've put my partner and the goalie into a 2 on 1.


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03-23-2017, 12:40 PM
  #120
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Maybe I'm missing something. If Poile offers Neal a contract extension and they can't agree, what makes you think when Neal has the added leverage of free agent status, he'll choose to re-sign after next year?

What's the downside of dispositioning Neal's future as a Pred before the Expansion draft? If he signs, great, we protect him and now we have him for multiple years. If he won't sign, then you have to assume he won't sign the year after either. This could play out just like Suter. Poile made the mistake of assuming he could sign him after his last year and it blew up in his face.

So, for argument sake, if you knew Neal wasn't going to resign with us after next year, you'd still protect him this year?

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03-23-2017, 12:47 PM
  #121
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Maybe I'm missing something. If Poile offers Neal a contract extension and they can't agree, what makes you think when Neal has the added leverage of free agent status, he'll choose to re-sign after next year?

What's the downside of dispositioning Neal's future as a Pred before the Expansion draft? If he signs, great, we protect him and now we have him for multiple years. If he won't sign, then you have to assume he won't sign the year after either. This could play out just like Suter. Poile made the mistake of assuming he could sign him after his last year and it blew up in his face.

So, for argument sake, if you knew Neal wasn't going to resign with us after next year, you'd still protect him this year?
If I am not mistaken, he can't sign until July 1, 2017 so that is about 2 weeks after the expansion draft. They can come to an agreement though.

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03-23-2017, 01:42 PM
  #122
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If I am not mistaken, he can't sign until July 1, 2017 so that is about 2 weeks after the expansion draft. They can come to an agreement though.
If if that's correct, they can reach an agreement before then, I agree.

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03-23-2017, 02:52 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by ILikeItILoveIt View Post
Maybe I'm missing something. If Poile offers Neal a contract extension and they can't agree, what makes you think when Neal has the added leverage of free agent status, he'll choose to re-sign after next year?

What's the downside of dispositioning Neal's future as a Pred before the Expansion draft? If he signs, great, we protect him and now we have him for multiple years. If he won't sign, then you have to assume he won't sign the year after either. This could play out just like Suter. Poile made the mistake of assuming he could sign him after his last year and it blew up in his face.

So, for argument sake, if you knew Neal wasn't going to resign with us after next year, you'd still protect him this year?
Yes and trade him at the deadline.

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03-23-2017, 08:00 PM
  #124
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Yes and trade him at the deadline.
Sounds nice in theory but is pretty unrealistic. Playoff teams don't usually sell off their valuable assets going in to the stretch run--at least not if they have any ambition for the postseason.

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03-24-2017, 03:20 AM
  #125
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Sounds nice in theory but is pretty unrealistic. Playoff teams don't usually sell off their valuable assets going in to the stretch run--at least not if they have any ambition for the postseason.
I have a strange feeling after what happened with Suter, Poile won't let Neal slide away for nothing, unless we look like we truly do have a shot at the Cup.

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