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Armia vs Dano

View Poll Results: Who will be better?
Armia 94 45.19%
Dano 97 46.63%
They will be very similar 17 8.17%
Voters: 208. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-17-2016, 11:49 PM
  #76
ruffus23
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Dano is pretty impressive and younger. Armia has much catchup to do.

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Old
07-18-2016, 01:27 AM
  #77
nobody important
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ellismate View Post
Yeah I agree. I know he had an interview with Sara Orlesky during that game where he scored 2 on Dallas, and it appeared like Armia barely spoke any English at all. I imagine it would be hard making a good first impression on a team when you can't communicate with most the team and the coaches. Learning the system seems like it would take more time when it can't be articulated to you.
Good Lord, he's been on this side of the pond for three years. You would think learning English might be a priority.

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Old
07-18-2016, 03:26 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by ellismate View Post
Kind of feel like the point discrepancy between the two may have had to do with the timing of when they joined the team. Armia got sentenced to play with Lowry and Thorburn, or someone of equal garbage quality for a good chunk of the season, and got to shine when our top 6 started to thin and he got promoted up the lineup. I kinda feel like Dano ONLY got to play during that time, and never had to fight through the trenches of our 4th line. Even Ehlers wasn't able to hold up the line he was on when he was playing on our 3rd. When Armia got to play with Ladd on the off wing, they right away seemed like an impact line. Same with when he played with Petan, and that brief time he got to spend (IIRC) in our top 6.
You are absolutely right. In short, it's called an illusion.

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Old
07-18-2016, 03:49 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by nobody important View Post
Good Lord, he's been on this side of the pond for three years. You would think learning English might be a priority.
The problem is the mic&camera, not his English. He's a little bit shy if you haven't noticed. Not yet comfortably in front of the media.

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Old
07-18-2016, 12:45 PM
  #80
ellismate
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Originally Posted by Sabrenator View Post
The problem is the mic&camera, not his English. He's a little bit shy if you haven't noticed. Not yet comfortably in front of the media.
Yeah I watched other interviews from Buffalo and his English seemed fine. I guess Sara's beauty sent him into a panic attack

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Old
07-18-2016, 02:34 PM
  #81
nobody important
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Originally Posted by ellismate View Post
Yeah I watched other interviews from Buffalo and his English seemed fine. I guess Sara's beauty sent him into a panic attack
Someone needs to tell him that the key to public speaking is to imagine the audience is naked.

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Old
07-18-2016, 04:17 PM
  #82
Gil Fisher
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Went with Armia. Feels like a late-bloomer to me. Appreciate Dano's had a much more effective start to his career, but development isn't always a straight-line progression. So just a gut call based on things I've seen.

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Old
07-18-2016, 07:50 PM
  #83
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I'll go with Armia........his ceiling is much higher...

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Old
07-18-2016, 08:26 PM
  #84
Gsus
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Armia. Somewhat struggled in NA but he still has very impressive offensive skills. I hope he shows that in the future with the Jets.

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Old
07-19-2016, 01:10 PM
  #85
roccerfeller
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Dano



And I really like Armia

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Old
07-19-2016, 01:16 PM
  #86
Flair Hay
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Was honestly shocked at Dano's possession numbers when I read here back in April. Never stood out to me much at all but his numbers are good enough so far that they can't be ignored.

Unless Armia starts lighting the lamp more this is Dano.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:05 PM
  #87
10Ducky10
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I thought I would bump this to see if anyone has changed their minds.
I would still take Armia but I did not envision him as a 3rd line checker.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:07 PM
  #88
garret9
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Dano still looks the superior player, but the gap has significantly closed.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:08 PM
  #89
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Armia's role is more important right now.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:28 PM
  #90
sipowicz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Dano still looks the superior player, but the gap has significantly closed.
Huh? Armia looks like a NHL capable 3rd or 4th line player who is very good defensively, Dano on the other hand looks closer to an AHL level talent than NHL talent!

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:30 PM
  #91
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I'd like to see Roslo between those two.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:38 PM
  #92
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Armia and it's not even close

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:41 PM
  #93
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Dano, but I love me some Armia and I'd love to actually see him get handed the keys for Laine and Schiefele for a test drive to see how he works with them.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:43 PM
  #94
MrBoJangelz71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Dano still looks the superior player, but the gap has significantly closed.
Superior?

Not sure what Dano does that I would classify as superior to what Armia does.

Been high on Armia for awhile now, and Dano's game has grown on considerably from when he came over, but Armia has more in the toolbox to work with and a higher ceiling.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:44 PM
  #95
kanadalainen
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Armia.

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Old
03-16-2017, 02:51 PM
  #96
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I'll take Armia for the future. I think he's still on a decent development trajectory and is improving in some key areas. I like Dano too, but he seems to be more "what you see is what you get". I think he's been underutilized by the Jets in top-9 roles and in offensive circumstances, but I still think that Armia will be the more effective player over the next several years.

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Old
03-16-2017, 03:15 PM
  #97
lanky
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right hand shot settles it if there's a tie

armia

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Old
03-16-2017, 03:42 PM
  #98
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Huh? Armia looks like a NHL capable 3rd or 4th line player who is very good defensively, Dano on the other hand looks closer to an AHL level talent than NHL talent!
LOL. Okay sip.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBoJangelz71 View Post
Superior?

Not sure what Dano does that I would classify as superior to what Armia does.

Been high on Armia for awhile now, and Dano's game has grown on considerably from when he came over, but Armia has more in the toolbox to work with and a higher ceiling.
When I want to discuss performance, I typically use performance to measure that.

Dano has been the better player this year per minute and also the better player the past few years as well...

Overall Value

Dano has provided the team with 3.1 goals above replacement over 378 minutes.
Armia has provided the team with 3.2 goals above replacement over 684 minutes.

Armia has provided basically the same value with almost twice the ice time.

Components

Even Strength Offensive Value

Even Strength Offense can be broken into two parts: Creating offense yourself and improving your linemates.

Individual Offensive Contributions
Dano is worth 0.18 goals per 60 minutes above replacement
Armia is worth 0.00 goals per 60 minutes above replacement

This is primarily driven by even strength scoring adjusted for linemate quality.
Dano ranks 123rd in 5v5 scoring with 1.69 points per hour despite playing on the fourth line mostly. Dano is typically the highest scorer per minute on his line.
Armia ranks 265th in 5v5 scoring with 1.22 points per hour despite playing on the third line mostly. Armia is typically the middle scorer per minute on his line.

There are other factors that impact this, like shot volume, shot quality, expected and actual shooting percentage, takeaways, and giveaways.

Team Expected Goal Impact

Think, Corsi, but with shot quality adjustments and usage adjustments. You can think of OXPM being how the player tilts the ice lending to improving linemate's offense.

Dano's Offensive XPM is 0.23 goals per hour above replacement.
Armia's Offensive XPM is 0.01 goals per hour above replacement.*

*To be honest, I think that the XPM model is overly awarding Lowry and underly awarding Dano, but there still is a gap.

Even Strength Defensive Value

Unlike offensive value, there is not really a boxscore component to defense. Blocks and hits statistics do not carry enough value to end up being a contribution to WAR. So, XPM becomes the sole weighting of a player's defensive value.

Dano's Offensive XPM is 0.30 goals per hour above replacement.
Armia's Offensive XPM is 0.21 goals per hour above replacement.

The XPM model states that both of these players have been highly effective on defensive value, and that aside from Perreault are the Jets largest per minute defensive impact players on the Jets. While the model suggests that Dano is the superior player in this regard, the gap is small enough that one could at least bring it up for debate if they provide sufficient evidence why the values may be skewed.

Other

Both have poor impact on power play offense this season, although Dano's is slightly better.
Both have similar mildly positive impact with drawing penalties.
Armia has a mildly better impact on taking penalties.
Neither have provided any face off value.
Armia has been better in providing penalty kill value.

Final tally:

1) Dano provides far more scoring punch relative to usage, and this does not seem to be an outlier from his historical performance. Clear and significant edge Dano.

2) Dano improves his linemates offensive opportunities more, although I think the model likely over exaggerates that impact. Could be clear or slight edge Dano.

3) Dano suppresses opponent offensive opportunities slightly more, although you can debate the actual values since it is fairly tight and they are in the same tier of very good defensive players here. Wash.

4) Dano is slightly better in improving PP but Armia is slightly better in improving PK. Wash.

5) Armia is better at penalty differentials by being better at avoiding taking penalties, although both are equally competent drawers. Clear edge Armia.

Overall Dano has tracked as the superior player.
Armia has taken a large leap in development on the defensive aspects of the game, but Dano is no plug in those areas either.
Dano has a significant advantage in the offensive sides of the game and this has been the historical norm for the two.


Last edited by garret9: 03-16-2017 at 03:51 PM.
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Old
03-16-2017, 04:07 PM
  #99
10Ducky10
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I still take Armia.

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Old
03-16-2017, 04:19 PM
  #100
Gm0ney
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The gap has tightened, but Dano's still my preference. And in addition to Garret's dissertation, Dano's also a year-and-a-half younger than Armia (although Garret may have mentioned that somewhere in Chapter 8 ).

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