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Armia vs Dano

View Poll Results: Who will be better?
Armia 94 45.19%
Dano 97 46.63%
They will be very similar 17 8.17%
Voters: 208. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-16-2017, 04:26 PM
  #101
surixon
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I have a hard time ranking Dano's performance this year due to all the time he's missed. He was the better of the two last year but not so sure Armia hasn't caught up in a number of areas except for production.

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Old
03-16-2017, 04:39 PM
  #102
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Armia is better defensively, but he is defensive in an offensive way.

Dano is more only offense and can drive plays really well.

But if we're talking who to protect over one, I say protect Dano.

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Old
03-16-2017, 05:36 PM
  #103
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Just reeeeally hope that Lowry isn't prioritized over these 2 and Las Vegas takes him. I mean Lowry is a good 4th line center but he's nothing special.

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Old
03-16-2017, 08:55 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Skiffer55 View Post
Just reeeeally hope that Lowry isn't prioritized over these 2 and Las Vegas takes him. I mean Lowry is a good 4th line center but he's nothing special.
Well I think he is a really good 4C so almost special. I would like to see a 3rd line of Dano, Petan, Armia. I suspect Armia's scoring would develop well with those 2 and his forecheck would help the other 2. Dano's forecheck is not bad either. Petan is the playmaker.

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Old
03-16-2017, 09:39 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
LOL. Okay sip.



When I want to discuss performance, I typically use performance to measure that.

Dano has been the better player this year per minute and also the better player the past few years as well...

Overall Value

Dano has provided the team with 3.1 goals above replacement over 378 minutes.
Armia has provided the team with 3.2 goals above replacement over 684 minutes.

Armia has provided basically the same value with almost twice the ice time.

Components

Even Strength Offensive Value

Even Strength Offense can be broken into two parts: Creating offense yourself and improving your linemates.

Individual Offensive Contributions
Dano is worth 0.18 goals per 60 minutes above replacement
Armia is worth 0.00 goals per 60 minutes above replacement

This is primarily driven by even strength scoring adjusted for linemate quality.
Dano ranks 123rd in 5v5 scoring with 1.69 points per hour despite playing on the fourth line mostly. Dano is typically the highest scorer per minute on his line.
Armia ranks 265th in 5v5 scoring with 1.22 points per hour despite playing on the third line mostly. Armia is typically the middle scorer per minute on his line.

There are other factors that impact this, like shot volume, shot quality, expected and actual shooting percentage, takeaways, and giveaways.

Team Expected Goal Impact

Think, Corsi, but with shot quality adjustments and usage adjustments. You can think of OXPM being how the player tilts the ice lending to improving linemate's offense.

Dano's Offensive XPM is 0.23 goals per hour above replacement.
Armia's Offensive XPM is 0.01 goals per hour above replacement.*

*To be honest, I think that the XPM model is overly awarding Lowry and underly awarding Dano, but there still is a gap.

Even Strength Defensive Value

Unlike offensive value, there is not really a boxscore component to defense. Blocks and hits statistics do not carry enough value to end up being a contribution to WAR. So, XPM becomes the sole weighting of a player's defensive value.

Dano's Offensive XPM is 0.30 goals per hour above replacement.
Armia's Offensive XPM is 0.21 goals per hour above replacement.

The XPM model states that both of these players have been highly effective on defensive value, and that aside from Perreault are the Jets largest per minute defensive impact players on the Jets. While the model suggests that Dano is the superior player in this regard, the gap is small enough that one could at least bring it up for debate if they provide sufficient evidence why the values may be skewed.

Other

Both have poor impact on power play offense this season, although Dano's is slightly better.
Both have similar mildly positive impact with drawing penalties.
Armia has a mildly better impact on taking penalties.
Neither have provided any face off value.
Armia has been better in providing penalty kill value.

Final tally:

1) Dano provides far more scoring punch relative to usage, and this does not seem to be an outlier from his historical performance. Clear and significant edge Dano.

2) Dano improves his linemates offensive opportunities more, although I think the model likely over exaggerates that impact. Could be clear or slight edge Dano.

3) Dano suppresses opponent offensive opportunities slightly more, although you can debate the actual values since it is fairly tight and they are in the same tier of very good defensive players here. Wash.

4) Dano is slightly better in improving PP but Armia is slightly better in improving PK. Wash.

5) Armia is better at penalty differentials by being better at avoiding taking penalties, although both are equally competent drawers. Clear edge Armia.

Overall Dano has tracked as the superior player.
Armia has taken a large leap in development on the defensive aspects of the game, but Dano is no plug in those areas either.
Dano has a significant advantage in the offensive sides of the game and this has been the historical norm for the two.
Nice post Garret, appreciate the information.

Dano's game has grown on me considerably over the past year, but it is the type of game you have to watch closely to see its value. What Dano lacks in skill, he makes up in hockey smarts, positioning, hard work and he is strong on his skates.
He is a solid forechecker, he controls play well, but Armia can control the puck better, and control play.

What Armia lacks in hockey smarts he makes up in skill. His speed and size, along with his ability to control the puck, makes his forecheck ability strong. He can create more offensively on his own than Dano, who is more opportunistic when it comes to offense, relying on second hand chances, clean ups, deflections.

Dano seems more efficient in his offense than Armia, who struggles with finishing. He needs to improve his shot, as he generates chances that he has failed to finish.

To me, this is where the eye test favors Armia's game, while analytics favor Dano's. Both are solid players, hope we can retain both, Dano would be a nice replacement for Mathias on that line.

Superior is a strong variance in comparison, that I do not believe seperates their games.

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Old
03-16-2017, 09:41 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Well I think he is a really good 4C so almost special. I would like to see a 3rd line of Dano, Petan, Armia. I suspect Armia's scoring would develop well with those 2 and his forecheck would help the other 2. Dano's forecheck is not bad either. Petan is the playmaker.
I'd take that 3rd line.

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Old
03-16-2017, 10:39 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
I would like to see a 3rd line of Dano, Petan, Armia. I suspect Armia's scoring would develop well with those 2 and his forecheck would help the other 2. Dano's forecheck is not bad either. Petan is the playmaker.
The three of them ended up together for a short bit tonight and showed exactly what you describe. Armia forechecked super hard, earned a turnover, Petan cleaned it up and made a beautiful feed to Dano in front who nearly potted it.

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Old
03-16-2017, 11:17 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
LOL. Okay sip.



When I want to discuss performance, I typically use performance to measure that.

Dano has been the better player this year per minute and also the better player the past few years as well...

Overall Value

Dano has provided the team with 3.1 goals above replacement over 378 minutes.
Armia has provided the team with 3.2 goals above replacement over 684 minutes.

Armia has provided basically the same value with almost twice the ice time.

Components

Even Strength Offensive Value

Even Strength Offense can be broken into two parts: Creating offense yourself and improving your linemates.

Individual Offensive Contributions
Dano is worth 0.18 goals per 60 minutes above replacement
Armia is worth 0.00 goals per 60 minutes above replacement

This is primarily driven by even strength scoring adjusted for linemate quality.
Dano ranks 123rd in 5v5 scoring with 1.69 points per hour despite playing on the fourth line mostly. Dano is typically the highest scorer per minute on his line.
Armia ranks 265th in 5v5 scoring with 1.22 points per hour despite playing on the third line mostly. Armia is typically the middle scorer per minute on his line.

There are other factors that impact this, like shot volume, shot quality, expected and actual shooting percentage, takeaways, and giveaways.

Team Expected Goal Impact

Think, Corsi, but with shot quality adjustments and usage adjustments. You can think of OXPM being how the player tilts the ice lending to improving linemate's offense.

Dano's Offensive XPM is 0.23 goals per hour above replacement.
Armia's Offensive XPM is 0.01 goals per hour above replacement.*

*To be honest, I think that the XPM model is overly awarding Lowry and underly awarding Dano, but there still is a gap.

Even Strength Defensive Value

Unlike offensive value, there is not really a boxscore component to defense. Blocks and hits statistics do not carry enough value to end up being a contribution to WAR. So, XPM becomes the sole weighting of a player's defensive value.

Dano's Offensive XPM is 0.30 goals per hour above replacement.
Armia's Offensive XPM is 0.21 goals per hour above replacement.

The XPM model states that both of these players have been highly effective on defensive value, and that aside from Perreault are the Jets largest per minute defensive impact players on the Jets. While the model suggests that Dano is the superior player in this regard, the gap is small enough that one could at least bring it up for debate if they provide sufficient evidence why the values may be skewed.

Other

Both have poor impact on power play offense this season, although Dano's is slightly better.
Both have similar mildly positive impact with drawing penalties.
Armia has a mildly better impact on taking penalties.
Neither have provided any face off value.
Armia has been better in providing penalty kill value.

Final tally:

1) Dano provides far more scoring punch relative to usage, and this does not seem to be an outlier from his historical performance. Clear and significant edge Dano.

2) Dano improves his linemates offensive opportunities more, although I think the model likely over exaggerates that impact. Could be clear or slight edge Dano.

3) Dano suppresses opponent offensive opportunities slightly more, although you can debate the actual values since it is fairly tight and they are in the same tier of very good defensive players here. Wash.

4) Dano is slightly better in improving PP but Armia is slightly better in improving PK. Wash.

5) Armia is better at penalty differentials by being better at avoiding taking penalties, although both are equally competent drawers. Clear edge Armia.

Overall Dano has tracked as the superior player.
Armia has taken a large leap in development on the defensive aspects of the game, but Dano is no plug in those areas either.
Dano has a significant advantage in the offensive sides of the game and this has been the historical norm for the two.
Sample size for Dano must be very small on the PK. Can you even make inferences? In fact, do you have any confidence intervals or p values for the differences? I'm increasingly wary of hockey stats without those significance tests. Just like any other area of statistical analysis we should expect to have measures of statistical error before interpreting statistical comparisons.

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Old
03-16-2017, 11:47 PM
  #109
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Tonight's eye test reaffirms my Armia pick.

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Old
03-17-2017, 05:48 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
When I want to discuss performance, I typically use performance to measure that.
Perfomance? You mean advanced stats? Again, advanced stats alone doesn't tell you individuals actual performance. Not even close, when we are talking about small sample size.

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Old
03-17-2017, 06:18 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Sabrenator View Post
Perfomance? You mean advanced stats? Again, advanced stats alone doesn't tell you individuals actual performance. Not even close, when we are talking about small sample size.
I don't know about you but I view point priduction and impacting goal differentials neither advanced nor something "not even close" to performance in a game where the most goals wins...

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03-17-2017, 06:20 AM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Sample size for Dano must be very small on the PK. Can you even make inferences? In fact, do you have any confidence intervals or p values for the differences? I'm increasingly wary of hockey stats without those significance tests. Just like any other area of statistical analysis we should expect to have measures of statistical error before interpreting statistical comparisons.

X2. I appreciate the stats and the work that goes into calculating them but without the standard tests required of statistics in any discipline to confirm significance and reliability they are tough to accept as hard and fast evidence favoring one player over another. I think in many cases the legitimacy of stats being produced is assumed but when sample sizes aren't massive and the "eye test" leads some fans to doubt these stats they should be presented

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Old
03-17-2017, 06:23 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Sample size for Dano must be very small on the PK. Can you even make inferences? In fact, do you have any confidence intervals or p values for the differences? I'm increasingly wary of hockey stats without those significance tests. Just like any other area of statistical analysis we should expect to have measures of statistical error before interpreting statistical comparisons.
It has nothing to do with Dano's performance on the PK, actually.

Ironically the reason why Armia doesn't gain much value over Dano on PK is literally due to the large confidence intervals on PK performance, since PK performance measurements have fairly low year to year correlation.

So yes, the statisticians dealing with hockey statistics are well aware of the importance of significance testings... but I'm not going to slag on a discussion board about p values since that's not the appropriate audience here.

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Old
03-17-2017, 06:38 AM
  #114
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Armia's upside is much higher in my opinion. Armia has the skill to be a superstar. Whether he reaches that potential is another question.

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03-17-2017, 06:42 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
It has nothing to do with Dano's performance on the PK, actually.

Ironically the reason why Armia doesn't gain much value over Dano on PK is literally due to the large confidence intervals on PK performance, since PK performance measurements have fairly low year to year correlation.

So yes, the statisticians dealing with hockey statistics are well aware of the importance of significance testings... but I'm not going to slag on a discussion board about p values since that's not the appropriate audience here.
If you have people doubting your stats is it not worth it to mention them? I get that not everyone will understand every bit of the info but you'd think that more people would understand terms relevant across all types of research than stats that have been developed fairly recently and whose specifics aren't well known to most fans

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Old
03-17-2017, 07:07 AM
  #116
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Armia's upside is much higher in my opinion. Armia has the skill to be a superstar. Whether he reaches that potential is another question.
Dano is 20 months younger. Armia will be 24 in a couple months. Not very many players show significant improvement from that point, particularly offensively.

Armia is the nice looking player (skating, shooting) whose production never matches what it looks like it should. Dano is the bad looking player whose production is always higher than people think it should be. The second type always ends up more valuable, IMO.

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03-17-2017, 07:31 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Dano is 20 months younger. Armia will be 24 in a couple months. Not very many players show significant improvement from that point, particularly offensively.

Armia is the nice looking player (skating, shooting) whose production never matches what it looks like it should. Dano is the bad looking player whose production is always higher than people think it should be. The second type always ends up more valuable, IMO.
I'd agree with this.

Dano's a player who you actually have to watch on the ice (as opposed to just watching the play or following the puck) to see his strengths

He has very good awareness, is solid on his skates, and is very good at getting into seems and breaking his check in the ozone.

The issue being that unless his linemates are able to get him the puck in these situations, it goes completely unnoticed.

Armia on the other hand is a big guy that skates well, can really hang onto the puck, and does a "good job" in cycling (I use quotes because while he's good at keeping a board cycle going, I don't think it's always the most effective nor the proper decision)

Armia also has hands and is good with the puck in tight.

These are things that were going to see more often as it's less reliant on his teammates.

Dano on the other hand isn't a guy who holds onto the puck and cycles, if it's on his stick he's shooting, and that's not because that's all he knows how to do, but because when the picks on his stick he's almost always in a good position to shoot due to that ability to sneak into the softspots on the ice.

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03-17-2017, 07:36 AM
  #118
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Dano - Petan - Armia

Finisher, distributor, and cycler / puck retrieval guy, all with some offensive abilities. I like both players for different reasons, and would like to see that put together.

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Old
03-17-2017, 07:43 AM
  #119
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I had been on the fence with this one for a while but have decided I would rather lose Armia than Dano.

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03-17-2017, 09:45 AM
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Dano is 20 months younger. Armia will be 24 in a couple months. Not very many players show significant improvement from that point, particularly offensively.

Armia is the nice looking player (skating, shooting) whose production never matches what it looks like it should. Dano is the bad looking player whose production is always higher than people think it should be. The second type always ends up more valuable, IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
I'd agree with this.

Dano's a player who you actually have to watch on the ice (as opposed to just watching the play or following the puck) to see his strengths

He has very good awareness, is solid on his skates, and is very good at getting into seems and breaking his check in the ozone.

The issue being that unless his linemates are able to get him the puck in these situations, it goes completely unnoticed.

Armia on the other hand is a big guy that skates well, can really hang onto the puck, and does a "good job" in cycling (I use quotes because while he's good at keeping a board cycle going, I don't think it's always the most effective nor the proper decision)

Armia also has hands and is good with the puck in tight.

These are things that were going to see more often as it's less reliant on his teammates.

Dano on the other hand isn't a guy who holds onto the puck and cycles, if it's on his stick he's shooting, and that's not because that's all he knows how to do, but because when the picks on his stick he's almost always in a good position to shoot due to that ability to sneak into the softspots on the ice.
Agree with both of you, great posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Dano - Petan - Armia

Finisher, distributor, and cycler / puck retrieval guy, all with some offensive abilities. I like both players for different reasons, and would like to see that put together.
I'd like to see this ^

Ehlers - Scheifele - Laine
Perreault - Little - Wheeler
Dano - Petan - Armia
Matthias - Lowry - Copp

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Old
03-17-2017, 09:56 AM
  #121
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Ehlers - Scheifele - Laine
Perreault - Little - Wheeler
Dano - Petan - Armia
Matthias - Lowry - Copp

totally agree with this guerzy!

Make it happen Maurice!

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Old
03-17-2017, 09:57 AM
  #122
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Agree with both of you, great posts.



I'd like to see this ^

Laine - Scheifele - Ehlers
Perreault - Little - Wheeler
Dano - Petan - Armia
Matthias - Lowry - Copp
Fixed it for you. And for Maurice.

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Old
03-17-2017, 09:58 AM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
Agree with both of you, great posts.



I'd like to see this ^

Ehlers - Scheifele - Laine
Perreault - Little - Wheeler
Dano - Petan - Armia
Matthias - Lowry - Copp
Beautiful. I agree with YWGinYYG and Guerzy's suggestions.

Lets go MO, make it so.

Edit: with Board Bard's mod.


Last edited by kanadalainen: 03-17-2017 at 09:59 AM. Reason: salute the Bard
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Old
03-17-2017, 10:05 AM
  #124
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Just reeeeally hope that Lowry isn't prioritized over these 2 and Las Vegas takes him. I mean Lowry is a good 4th line center but he's nothing special.
Really, I would take Lowry over both of them because I think neither one of them will be more than marginal players.

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03-17-2017, 11:25 AM
  #125
Mortimer Snerd
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I'd agree with this.

Dano's a player who you actually have to watch on the ice (as opposed to just watching the play or following the puck) to see his strengths

He has very good awareness, is solid on his skates, and is very good at getting into seems and breaking his check in the ozone.

The issue being that unless his linemates are able to get him the puck in these situations, it goes completely unnoticed.

Armia on the other hand is a big guy that skates well, can really hang onto the puck, and does a "good job" in cycling (I use quotes because while he's good at keeping a board cycle going, I don't think it's always the most effective nor the proper decision)

Armia also has hands and is good with the puck in tight.

These are things that were going to see more often as it's less reliant on his teammates.

Dano on the other hand isn't a guy who holds onto the puck and cycles, if it's on his stick he's shooting, and that's not because that's all he knows how to do, but because when the picks on his stick he's almost always in a good position to shoot due to that ability to sneak into the softspots on the ice.
Interesting description of the contrast between the 2. I'm liking Armia more and more all the time for his ability to go and get the puck and then to hang onto it. Most of us have seen his highlight reel scoring which illustrates the scoring ability he has. I think his scoring has been very gradually coming on and will improve more if he is played with more skilled linemates.

I'd prefer Matthias and Lowry on the 4th line and Armia on a 3rd line with Dano and Petan. I expect that Armia and Dano would score at similar rates under those circumstances.

I hope we are able to keep both. I voted Dano in this poll originally but if I could only keep 1 right now it would be Armia. I think he is really outstanding at what he does best which makes him much harder to replace. Is there a better forechecker in the league?

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