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Philly fans predict: Who is playoff darkhorse?

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Old
01-15-2006, 02:36 PM
  #51
BobbyClarkeFan16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Last time i checked there is a DIRECT correlation to a goal being scored when an assist is given to a player. I might have missed something in the statistical changes that occured in the last CBA, if so, enlighten me.

Actually it is more of a CLEAR indication that they are really really good. Forsberg has the 4th best Assister-Per-Game rate in the HISTORY of hockey (I'm not sure where he ranks in points-per-game, but it's close to that). Now, rationally what this means is that whenever he is on the ice, in the history of the NHL, you have the 4th best chance to have a goal produced for your team. 4th best. think about that. how many players have played in the NHL, he's the 4th best... What THAT means is that it is VERY VERY difficult for ANYONE to produce goals on a line anything remotely close to what Forsberg's going to produce. If you want to see "balanced" scoring on a team that has Forsberg leading the charge, you best have a HoF'er sitting on the second line for competition... and unless they're named Gretzky, Lemieux, and whoever (not sure who the other is) even that HoF player isn't going to create equal scoring to Forsberg.

22-23 minutes a night are going to the Forsberg line. so they are getting MORE ice time than the rest of the team... further complicating anyone's effort to produce anything on par with them... that 41% isn't a statistically anomaly, that's "peter forsberg is REALLY good."

more to the point that line struggled on this road trip that we just went 8-2-1 on and we were still successful. you like to bring up specific games from the past few weeks when making this statemnt... how about the games where they did step up?

we do not have the scoring depth that Detroit does... so, no, we shouldn't be scoring at the balanced rate that they do.

k... i'm so glad you make no decisions that are important to the Flyers. even if you're right about Hitch -- which you're not -- go back to the press conference when he was hired and read what Snider said. look at the fact that Dallas regretted firing him greatly... the man has this team, which has lost over 200 man games to injury, at the top of the NHL standings. it's fascinating that you are so against someone who has a team you supposedly root for playing so well...

First off Jester, we have differing opinions on this team and I'm cool with that. No need to get personal.

Second, I suggest you check the stats of the 11 game road trip and see which line contributed the most offense. Once again, it was the top line. If by struggling, you mean that instead of being the only line that scored, then I guess you could say that they struggled.

Third, there is a direct co-relation between teams that win the Cup and teams that don't in terms of balanced offense. All the ones that win the Cup do have balanced offenses. Say what you want about Detroit being better offensively and having a better offense. But it speaks in volumes that out of ALL the current teams in playoff positions, we are the only team to have less than 6 players score 10 or more goals. Everyone else who is a playoff contender right now has anywhere from 6 to 10 players on the team that have scored 10 or more goals already and they have atleast five or six more players close to reaching the double digit mark. Christ, even some of the non-contending teams have more players with 10 or more goals than we do. What does that tell you? It tells me that we're lagging behind in terms of offensive production from lines 2 through 4. That my friend is significant. If you don't believe me, check out the stats at ESPN.

Fourth, with regards to Handzus, I'll say it again. The game is won by scoring goals. 27 assists is nice, but they don't win games. It's the goal that ultimately wins the game. And you know what, I'd be willing to sacrifice the ice time the top line gets by about two or three minutes if it meant that we were going to get scoring from another line. I think you can also agree with me that there is no way guys like Brian Savage should be getting more ice time than guys like Carter and Umberger. Yet, he gets more ice time than both of those guys and he produces less than those two. If ice time is warranted in terms of production and play, would you then agree with me that Umberger and Carter's play have warranted them more ice time?

Finally, with regards to your comment "it's fascinating that you are so against someone who has a team you supposedly root for playing so well", I'm not going to get into a p-issing match with you in terms of how the team is run. The fact of the matter is that Brian Savage gets 15 minutes a night of ice time and produces squat. Carter gets 11 to 12 minutes a night and has produced at a rate that is only surpassed by uber rookies Ovechkin and Crosby. That speaks in volumes.

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01-15-2006, 03:48 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16
First off Jester, we have differing opinions on this team and I'm cool with that. No need to get personal.

Second, I suggest you check the stats of the 11 game road trip and see which line contributed the most offense. Once again, it was the top line. If by struggling, you mean that instead of being the only line that scored, then I guess you could say that they struggled.

Third, there is a direct co-relation between teams that win the Cup and teams that don't in terms of balanced offense. All the ones that win the Cup do have balanced offenses. Say what you want about Detroit being better offensively and having a better offense. But it speaks in volumes that out of ALL the current teams in playoff positions, we are the only team to have less than 6 players score 10 or more goals. Everyone else who is a playoff contender right now has anywhere from 6 to 10 players on the team that have scored 10 or more goals already and they have atleast five or six more players close to reaching the double digit mark. Christ, even some of the non-contending teams have more players with 10 or more goals than we do. What does that tell you? It tells me that we're lagging behind in terms of offensive production from lines 2 through 4. That my friend is significant. If you don't believe me, check out the stats at ESPN.

Fourth, with regards to Handzus, I'll say it again. The game is won by scoring goals. 27 assists is nice, but they don't win games. It's the goal that ultimately wins the game. And you know what, I'd be willing to sacrifice the ice time the top line gets by about two or three minutes if it meant that we were going to get scoring from another line. I think you can also agree with me that there is no way guys like Brian Savage should be getting more ice time than guys like Carter and Umberger. Yet, he gets more ice time than both of those guys and he produces less than those two. If ice time is warranted in terms of production and play, would you then agree with me that Umberger and Carter's play have warranted them more ice time?

Finally, with regards to your comment "it's fascinating that you are so against someone who has a team you supposedly root for playing so well", I'm not going to get into a p-issing match with you in terms of how the team is run. The fact of the matter is that Brian Savage gets 15 minutes a night of ice time and produces squat. Carter gets 11 to 12 minutes a night and has produced at a rate that is only surpassed by uber rookies Ovechkin and Crosby. That speaks in volumes.
Well said.

How the Devils having 1 less double digit goal scorer than the Flyers translates into them having a one line offense and the Flyers having a balanced offense per Jester is beyond me.

I am not saying that the Devils will beat the Flyers in a 7-game series. However, to not be the least bit concerned about a team that has Brodeur in net is foolish.


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Old
01-15-2006, 06:40 PM
  #53
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35% of Tampa's goals were produced by one line... Peter Forsberg is better at creating goals than anyone on that line. so the difference in goal production between the Flyers top-line and that top-line as of right now is 6% of team goals. Maybe Forsberg doesn't provide a 6% boost (though, i wouldn't bet he was far from it given his career numbers)... but it's pretty close.

Devs had 29% provided by the top line the year before (assuming i used the correct line) that helps your hypothesis.

40% of Detroits offense was provided by one line the year before.

balanced scoring is only important when you aren't a very good offensive team to begin with. when you have a line, like the Forsberg line which is one of the best in the league, it is very hard for other lines to keep up the pace and produce enough goals to compete in any % comparison.

this team is 5th in the league in scoring and was 2nd prior to the rash of injuries... the other lines on this team won't be nearly as efficient as the Forsberg line, so all you would get by giving them more ice time is a few more pts for their stat line, but less goals by comparison to what Forsberg produced.

again... an assist means that a goal was scored. assists don't win games, you're right. goals do... however, an assist means that a goal was, in fact, scored (Zeus gets a lot of first assists to boot). if the Forsberg/Gagne combo wasn't the BEST two-player combination in the league then this % argument would be much more towards the "balanced" scoring numbers that you would like to see... however, even if that line is contained, comparatively, this team would still be in the top-half of the league in scoring.

doesn't matter though... our second line is going to be improved at some point based on the Primeau situation... so we will all be happy. in fact, we'll probably be the second best team in the league offensively whenever that occurs.

and Pelts... the Devs have been a largely healthy team. Both Kapanen and Pitkanen would easily have 10+ goals at this point. look at the rosters in this discussion of the Devs... and, as I said, Brodeur has been human since Stevens' injury. there are more dangerous teams out there... personal opinion.


Last edited by Jester: 01-15-2006 at 06:49 PM.
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01-15-2006, 07:53 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
and Pelts... the Devs have been a largely healthy team. Both Kapanen and Pitkanen would easily have 10+ goals at this point. look at the rosters in this discussion of the Devs... and, as I said, Brodeur has been human since Stevens' injury. there are more dangerous teams out there... personal opinion.
Lets see, before Marty became a Devils Stevens had played 11 seasons and never made it to the finals, in fact the Devils never won a playoff series with Stevens until Marty became a Devil and Stevens never made it to the finals until his 13th season and only with Marty has a goalie.

Now explain me this, if Stevens was so great and solely responsible for Marty's success as you keep insinuating, what happen in the first 11 seasons of Stevens careers where he didn't take his other goalies by their hands and lead them to success like he supposely did for Marty?

Unbelievable. I officially give up man.

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01-15-2006, 08:03 PM
  #55
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I think the numbers are a little misleading. The flyers are a bit top heavy in scoring but when forsberg-gagne-knuble was either not in the lineup or during that time when they werent really coming up on the scoresheet (i think there was 4-5 games) The other guys did really step it up.

If forsberg / gagne / knuble werent having such monster years this wouldnt look as skewed as it does. Can't really fault them for racking it up

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01-15-2006, 08:10 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
and Pelts... the Devs have been a largely healthy team. Both Kapanen and Pitkanen would easily have 10+ goals at this point. look at the rosters in this discussion of the Devs... and, as I said, Brodeur has been human since Stevens' injury. there are more dangerous teams out there... personal opinion.
Would of, could of, should of equals doesn't. These players play in the real world and injuries are part of the game. That being said, neither Pitkanen nor Kapanen have 10 goals.

However, playing your game, it's pretty safe to say that Patrick Elias would have 10 goals by now if he didn't miss the first couple months of the season. Saying that the Devils have been a largely healthy team when one of their top scorers missed 40 games or so isn't exactly a true statement now, is it?

Yes, Brodeur had a shaky start of the season. However, he has won his last 5 starts and has let in only 6 goals in those games (including 3 shutouts). I'd hardly call that looking human.

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01-16-2006, 01:32 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pelts35.com
Would of, could of, should of equals doesn't. These players play in the real world and injuries are part of the game. That being said, neither Pitkanen nor Kapanen have 10 goals.

However, playing your game, it's pretty safe to say that Patrick Elias would have 10 goals by now if he didn't miss the first couple months of the season. Saying that the Devils have been a largely healthy team when one of their top scorers missed 40 games or so isn't exactly a true statement now, is it?

Yes, Brodeur had a shaky start of the season. However, he has won his last 5 starts and has let in only 6 goals in those games (including 3 shutouts). I'd hardly call that looking human.
yes... but it does in judging what is on the roster going forward, which is really what is up for discussion. you gotta evaluate talent... not pure stats, because the stats don't live in a vacuum. if anything, the fact that those guys have been hurt and we're where were at as of right now should be extremely encouraging to you... i mean, saying, "wow, we have X 10 goal scorers and they have Y goal scorers" doesn't matter for much in reality, matters who is lining up across from the other team when the puck drops and what their respective talent level is -- Kapanen and Pitkanen are very talented and very well suited to the skating going on under the new officiating.

yes, but at the loss of Mogilny, who didn't play great, but did put up 12 goals and 25 pts when he was with the team. so, while they would have gained a little in that trade, it wouldn't have really improved what amounts to a sub-par offensive team.

Brodeur has been shaky thus far this season. Was shaky the ENTIRE second half of the last season... and played AWFUL against the flyers in that series with multiple weak goals.


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01-16-2006, 01:50 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Lou is God
Lets see, before Marty became a Devils Stevens had played 11 seasons and never made it to the finals, in fact the Devils never won a playoff series with Stevens until Marty became a Devil and Stevens never made it to the finals until his 13th season and only with Marty has a goalie.

Now explain me this, if Stevens was so great and solely responsible for Marty's success as you keep insinuating, what happen in the first 11 seasons of Stevens careers where he didn't take his other goalies by their hands and lead them to success like he supposely did for Marty?

Unbelievable. I officially give up man.
me:

"so you're saying teammates matter to making a good team? won't argue that... but i am suggesting that Marty's middle of the pack play relates back to Stevens' concussion almost directly. his struggles thus far this year compared to his previous seasons isn't something that came out of nowhere."

the combination of Stevens, Nieds, and Brodeur had a LOT to do with the Devils defensive success. hockey is a team sport and Marty has seen a fall off in his play since the loss of Stevens, THAT is what i'm saying.

in january and february of the last season following Stevens' injury, he posted .910 and .891 respective sv pct. falling from .943, and .923 in the previous two months. Stevens went down early january i believe?

he rebounded strong in March for the playoff run posting a .921 mark, but against the Flyers he fell down to a .902 sv pct and Primeau directly attributed the teams success against the Devils to the lack of Stevens.

thus far in this season, sans Stevens AND Nieds he has posted .883, .902, .901, and .946 (through 5 games).

thus, in a monthly breakdown since the loss of Stevens his sv pct. goes:

.910
.891
.921
.883
.902
.901
.946 (we'll guess Law of Averages puts this at a .925 mark... still a good month)

what's that mean..? he's about a .900 sv pct goalie since Stevens' injury. which, strangely, is EXACTLY where he is as of right now... and has him 21st in the league. does this mean i think he's a bad, or average, goalie? no. i'd take him on our team in a heartbeat... however, Marty isn't the bugaboo that opponents like to make him out to be and the team in front of him isn't nearly as strong as the teams he used to have in front of him. you know, or at least you should, that the Devs offense was ALWAYS underrated in those cup runs... they led the league in scoring in '01 for christ sake. Marty is a great tourney goalie, and he has the knack for stealing the game his team didn't have it for on a given night... however, IMO, that devs team isn't very scary.

Stevie Y didn't win much for most of his career either... still a great player. It's a team sport and Marty and Stevens helped each other immensely to achieve goals... same for Nieds. two of the three are gone... not shockingly, it affects the play of other people that were on those teams.

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01-16-2006, 04:19 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
however, Marty isn't the bugaboo that opponents like to make him out to be...
Believe me Jester, no insult intended here but I'm going to go with the opinion of those NHL players before I ever go with the opinion of a rivals biased fan.


Now I really am officially done!


And good morning to all, and in case I don't see ya, good afternoon, good evening, and good night!

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01-22-2006, 09:47 AM
  #60
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Jester,

With the recent play of the Devils (9 in a row, Brodeur player of the week last week, 11-5 since LL took the reigns, etc), I was wondering if you have changed your opinion about the New Jersey Uh Oh's?

Before you dismiss their winning streak by saying they have played bad teams, let me disfuse that argument off the bat since 4 of the 9 games were against very good teams (Nashville, Vancouver, Flyers and Buffalo).

In this streak, they have allowed less than 2 goals per game, while scoring an average of 2.88 per game.

BTW, if the season ended today, the Flyers would play the Devils in the first round as the Flyers are the 3rd seed and the Devils are the 6th.

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01-22-2006, 02:29 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pelts35.com
Jester,

With the recent play of the Devils (9 in a row, Brodeur player of the week last week, 11-5 since LL took the reigns, etc), I was wondering if you have changed your opinion about the New Jersey Uh Oh's?

Before you dismiss their winning streak by saying they have played bad teams, let me disfuse that argument off the bat since 4 of the 9 games were against very good teams (Nashville, Vancouver, Flyers and Buffalo).

In this streak, they have allowed less than 2 goals per game, while scoring an average of 2.88 per game.

BTW, if the season ended today, the Flyers would play the Devils in the first round as the Flyers are the 3rd seed and the Devils are the 6th.
they're hot right now... did i argue that they weren't?

Nashville and Buffalo are impressive victories... Vancouver has turned it around since that loss, but wasn't exaclty spectacular coming in there. We sucked in that game against them, not that they didn't play well... but we were just awful after the first period.

2.88 goals a game isn't scary in the slightest... i'm still waiting for someone to provide a player past the first line that worries you offensively at all (they have X players with double-digit goals is NOT the answer to that question).

go them... they're hot. law of averages suggests that they will go through another cold streak... other teams will get hot. they're right in that cluster at the bottom where it's going to be tight.

Atlanta and Tampa still scare me much much more. looking at the teams at the bottom... NJ is the team i would MOST want to play in the first round. lock Zeus onto Elias and take it from there...

in this current winning streak that line is producing 48% of the 2.88 goals (which is good for a 19th in the league clip...). if you retard the scoring of that one line even a small amount their margin for error falls to almost nothing... plus, the last time i checked -- an absolute truth for any Flyer fan... -- it doesn't matter how well you're playing in january.

Atlanta's PP is terrifying... even w/out Bondra.

and Tampa is a sleeping giant offensively... if they acquire a goalie, which one would assume is on Feaster's mind down there, and that offense does what it should do they will be very scary. (btw, in your fascination with 10+ goal players... Tampa has 7).


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01-22-2006, 03:12 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
they're hot right now... did i argue that they weren't?

Nashville and Buffalo are impressive victories... Vancouver has turned it around since that loss, but wasn't exaclty spectacular coming in there. We sucked in that game against them, not that they didn't play well... but we were just awful after the first period.

2.88 goals a game isn't scary in the slightest... i'm still waiting for someone to provide a player past the first line that worries you offensively at all (they have X players with double-digit goals is NOT the answer to that question).

go them... they're hot. law of averages suggests that they will go through another cold streak... other teams will get hot. they're right in that cluster at the bottom where it's going to be tight.

Atlanta and Tampa still scare me much much more. looking at the teams at the bottom... NJ is the team i would MOST want to play in the first round. lock Zeus onto Elias and take it from there...

in this current winning streak that line is producing 48% of the 2.88 goals (which is good for a 19th in the league clip...). if you retard the scoring of that one line even a small amount their margin for error falls to almost nothing... plus, the last time i checked -- an absolute truth for any Flyer fan... -- it doesn't matter how well you're playing in january.

Atlanta's PP is terrifying... even w/out Bondra.

and Tampa is a sleeping giant offensively... if they acquire a goalie, which one would assume is on Feaster's mind down there, and that offense does what it should do they will be very scary. (btw, in your fascination with 10+ goal players... Tampa has 7).
I didn't say that you didn't admit they were hot, I was just curious to hear your opinion at this point in time now.

Whether 2.88 goals per game impresses you or not, allowing under 2 per game should impress you.

If things continue as such you may just get your wish.

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01-23-2006, 09:06 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com
I didn't say that you didn't admit they were hot, I was just curious to hear your opinion at this point in time now.

Whether 2.88 goals per game impresses you or not, allowing under 2 per game should impress you.

If things continue as such you may just get your wish.
if we can't beat that Devils team... we aren't winning the cup anyway. that simple. unless they make a trade to acquire someone to make you pause for even a moment after the top 3, they shouldn't be a problem for anyone.

Kozlov and Brylin do not strike fear in my heart...

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01-23-2006, 12:43 PM
  #64
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And besides I still don't think of NJ as a darkhorse. Not a fron runner as in the old days, but with what's left def not a darkhorse.

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01-28-2006, 02:38 PM
  #65
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back-to-back road shutouts? shocked.... shocked i say!

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01-28-2006, 03:50 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Jester
back-to-back road shutouts? shocked.... shocked i say!
Keep chirping, Jester.

Boy, it's real tough to pick 2 games out of an 82 game season, especially since the Devils were, at one point, not in the playoff race and now are in 6th place.

As I wrote earlier, if this all keeps up, you'll get your wish of playing the Devils in the first round. Funny, I'd even find a little bit of pleasure if the Devils beat the Flyers after all the smack of you have been talking about them.

All of this being said, with the not-so-stellar play of the Flyers as of late, it all may be irrelevant anyway.

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01-28-2006, 03:59 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com
Keep chirping, Jester.

Boy, it's real tough to pick 2 games out of an 82 game season, especially since the Devils were, at one point, not in the playoff race and now are in 6th place.

As I wrote earlier, if this all keeps up, you'll get your wish of playing the Devils in the first round. Funny, I'd even find a little bit of pleasure if the Devils beat the Flyers after all the smack of you have been talking about them.

All of this being said, with the not-so-stellar play of the Flyers as of late, it all may be irrelevant anyway.
you think this is smack?

i pick those two games out because what did i say... very tough team to play at their place, but should be beatable at home w/ their roster.

you watching right now... really want Tampa? Atlanta is smoking hot right now as well (or were until dropping 4 in a row)... eventually they'll get Bondra back (just came back). clearly i had too much work this week...

saying they're the preferred option among the teams at the bottom isn't "smack talk." it's friggin looking at the teams and trying to come to a rational decision regarding them...

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01-28-2006, 05:08 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
you think this is smack?

i pick those two games out because what did i say... very tough team to play at their place, but should be beatable at home w/ their roster.

you watching right now... really want Tampa? Atlanta is smoking hot right now as well (or were until dropping 4 in a row)... eventually they'll get Bondra back (just came back). clearly i had too much work this week...

saying they're the preferred option among the teams at the bottom isn't "smack talk." it's friggin looking at the teams and trying to come to a rational decision regarding them...
Just as you think that I have been hostile about Esche, you have been equally so about the Devils.

Given how beatable the Flyers look at home right now it may all be irrelevant.

Yes, I watched the Tampa game and, to be honest with you, I think the Flyers made them look good with how bad they were this afternoon.

I'll wait to pass judgement on Atlanta until I see that Lehtonen is 100% healed and can withstand playing every other night for 7 games.

Besides, being hot in January and February is completely irrelevant. We'll see what a 2 week layoff does to a team being hot.

And, once again, any team that has Brodeur in net during the playoffs is going to be a team to reckon with.

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01-28-2006, 11:12 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
back-to-back road shutouts? shocked.... shocked i say!
Are you serious Jester? Before they ran out of gas in Florida - playing nine games in two weeks including seven on the road will do that to a team - they won 5 out of 6 on the road.

They were flatout exhausted going into the champs ice in Tampa and they still got a point and by the time they got to South Florida they had nothing left in the tank and it showed.

But yet you want to suggest that this validates your claim that the Devils will struggle on the road. Amazing.

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01-29-2006, 02:14 PM
  #70
Jester
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lou is God
Are you serious Jester? Before they ran out of gas in Florida - playing nine games in two weeks including seven on the road will do that to a team - they won 5 out of 6 on the road.

They were flatout exhausted going into the champs ice in Tampa and they still got a point and by the time they got to South Florida they had nothing left in the tank and it showed.

But yet you want to suggest that this validates your claim that the Devils will struggle on the road. Amazing.
the fact that they're below .500 on the road validates my claims...

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01-29-2006, 02:16 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com
Just as you think that I have been hostile about Esche, you have been equally so about the Devils.

Given how beatable the Flyers look at home right now it may all be irrelevant.

Yes, I watched the Tampa game and, to be honest with you, I think the Flyers made them look good with how bad they were this afternoon.

I'll wait to pass judgement on Atlanta until I see that Lehtonen is 100% healed and can withstand playing every other night for 7 games.

Besides, being hot in January and February is completely irrelevant. We'll see what a 2 week layoff does to a team being hot.

And, once again, any team that has Brodeur in net during the playoffs is going to be a team to reckon with.

saying Team's A, B, and C worry me more than the Devils is not being hostile...

they weren't a problem last time... and this Devils team isn't as good as that one.

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01-29-2006, 02:25 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountaineer
darkhorse: Pittsburgh (I think they're "poised for a cup run" )

difficult opponent: Atlanta
yes a cup run for 2012

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01-29-2006, 02:30 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by Willis
yes a cup run for 2012
much much sooner... they're going to get an excellent draft pick again this year... they got Malkin coming at some point... not that i'm convinced Craig Patrick is the guy to get them over the hump.

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01-29-2006, 02:54 PM
  #74
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at this time, do the Flyers count as a darkhorse?

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01-29-2006, 05:02 PM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
the fact that they're below .500 on the road validates my claims...
And how many of those loses were without Elias? With him they are 5-3 on the road and two of those loses were at the end of a grueling two week stretch when they had nothing left in the tank.

It continues to amaze me how much you underestimate what Elias means to this team.

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