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Annual Season Goal Total Guesses

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Old
09-13-2016, 11:01 AM
  #1
Pred303
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Annual Season Goal Total Guesses

have done this every year for past 15 years about this time of year, so here goes this edition. forecast your best guess/expectations of individuals and team goal totals.

forwards;
Forsberg 35
Neal 35
Johansson 20
Smith 22
Wilson 18
Fisher 12
Ribeiro 6
Jarnkrok 12 (expect total to fall due to less top line type time)
Arvidsson 8
Salomaki 5
Fiala 10 (the real wildcard here)
Sissons 5
Watson 5
Bass 0
so 183 for the forwards

D
Josi 14
Subban 10 (and hope for more)
Eckholm 10
Ellis 10
Weber 5
Bitteto 2
Granberg 1
so 52 for the defense

that's a forecast of 235 for the team, 2.86 goals per game, a slight improvement from last year and a number that will place us in the top ten of the league

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Old
09-13-2016, 12:36 PM
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nomorekids
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Forsberg 34
Neal 39
Johansen 27
Smith 22
Wilson 18
Jarnkrok 15
Arvidsson 18 (I expect a breakout this year, I really think he's a little strength away from being a very good scorer)
Ribeiro 18
Fisher 20
Sissons 11
Salomaki 11

Bass\Watson -- maybe 5-6 total? I expect one or both to hit waivers this year

Subban 17
Josi 14
Ekholm 12
Ellis 13
Weber 6
Carle 8

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Old
09-13-2016, 02:53 PM
  #3
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Forwards

#9 Filip Forsberg - 36
#18 James Neal - 30
#12 Mike Fisher - 13
#15 Craig Smith - 20
#92 Ryan Johansen - 27
#33 Colin Wilson - 15
#63 Mike Ribeiro - 9
#19 Calle Jarnkrok - 8
#38 Viktor Arvidsson - 11
#10 Colton Sissons - 6
#16 Cody Bass - 1
#20 Miikka Salomaki - 5
#52 Austin Watson - 3

Overall: 184

Defensemen:

#76 P.K. Subban - 14
#59 Roman Josi - 12
#14 Mattias Ekholm - 9
#4 Ryan Ellis - 11
#25 Matt Carle - 0
#8 Petter Granberg - 2
#2 Anthony Bitetto - 3
#7 Yannick Weber - 4

Overall: 54

Forwards + Defense = 238 = 2,90 goals per game

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09-13-2016, 03:27 PM
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Drake744
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Stealing from the format above:

Forwards

#9 Filip Forsberg - 34
#18 James Neal - 32
#12 Mike Fisher - 15
#15 Craig Smith - 21
#92 Ryan Johansen - 19 (with a lot of assists)
#33 Colin Wilson - 14
#63 Mike Ribeiro - 8
#19 Calle Jarnkrok - 13
#38 Viktor Arvidsson - 7
#10 Colton Sissons - 4
#16 Cody Bass - 1
#20 Miikka Salomaki - 4
#52 Austin Watson - 5

Overall: 177

Defensemen:

#76 P.K. Subban - 12
#59 Roman Josi - 13
#14 Mattias Ekholm - 8
#4 Ryan Ellis - 16 (I'm calling a "breakout" year from him offensively, especially on the power play with Weber gone)
#25 Matt Carle - 0
#8 Petter Granberg - 1
#2 Anthony Bitetto - 2
#7 Yannick Weber - 2

Overall: 54

Forwards + Defense = 231 = 2.81 G/game. Last year would've put us at 11th and we finished 12th. The big unknowns that would obviously skew some of this are guys like Fiala and/or Kamenev plus anyone we may get in a trade but what's the fun in worrying about that?

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Old
09-13-2016, 03:46 PM
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Forwards

#9 Filip Forsberg - 35
#18 James Neal - 32
#12 Mike Fisher - 12
#15 Craig Smith - 22
#92 Ryan Johansen - 27
#33 Colin Wilson - 8
#63 Mike Ribeiro - 8
#19 Calle Jarnkrok - 15
#38 Viktor Arvidsson - 9
#10 Colton Sissons - 3
#16 Cody Bass - 0
#20 Miikka Salomaki - 5
#52 Austin Watson - 5

Overall: 181

Defensemen:

#76 P.K. Subban - 10
#59 Roman Josi - 14
#14 Mattias Ekholm - 7
#4 Ryan Ellis - 10
#25 Matt Carle - 1
#8 Petter Granberg - 1
#2 Anthony Bitetto - 3
#7 Yannick Weber - 1

Overall: 47

Total: 228 = 2.78 goals per game.

I'm a little pessimistic on Wilson (burned too many times), Ribeiro, and Fisher, because I don't expect Ribs and Fish to stay healthy all year. I think Smith will have a slightly better season, Forsberg and Neal will do well, and Johansen has scored 33 in the past so I'm going high on him.

I'm expecting lower goal scoring from the defense, but more assists so slightly higher scoring from the forwards. We'll see.

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Old
09-14-2016, 08:40 AM
  #6
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Forwards

#9 Filip Forsberg - 41
#18 James Neal - 36
#12 Mike Fisher - 9
#15 Craig Smith - 21
#92 Ryan Johansen - 26
#33 Colin Wilson - 11
#63 Mike Ribeiro - 7
#19 Calle Jarnkrok - 11 (this is so dependent upon where he plays in the lineup)
#38 Viktor Arvidsson - 9
#10 Colton Sissons - 5
#16 Cody Bass - 1
#20 Miikka Salomaki - 6
#52 Austin Watson - 0

Overall: 183

Defensemen:

#76 P.K. Subban - 15
#59 Roman Josi - 20
#14 Mattias Ekholm - 8
#4 Ryan Ellis - 13
#25 Matt Carle - 1
#8 Petter Granberg - 1
#2 Anthony Bitetto - 1
#7 Yannick Weber - 2

Overall: 61

Forwards + Defense = 244 = 2.98 goals per game

I don't know how this makes me feel.

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Old
09-14-2016, 09:07 AM
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nomorekids
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I'm surprised that most are predicting that Neal\Forsberg remain close to where they were last year. I think the presence of a Johansen at proper conditioning and for a full year will boost everyone a bit, and I think the increase in offensive possession introduced by Subban will be a factor as well. I feel pretty confident that one, if not both, of those guys ends up knocking on the 40 goal door.

I also expect Johansen to regain some of the goal scoring touch he's shown in the past.

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Old
09-14-2016, 06:42 PM
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Player Pos GP G A PTS
James Neal RW 73 28 24 52
Filip Forsberg LW 71 25 29 54
Craig Smith RW 82 22 20 42
Ryan Johansen C 81 21 43 64
Mike Fisher C 67 16 17 33
Roman Josi D 80 14 41 55
Colin Wilson LW 71 12 20 32
Mike Ribeiro C 81 11 42 53
Calle Jarnkrok C 67 11 12 23
P.K. Subban D 75 10 45 55
Ryan Ellis D 72 9 21 30
Mattias Ekholm D 78 7 19 26
Yannick Weber D 52 5 8 13
Viktor Arvidsson LW 30 4 4 8
Matt Carle D 65 3 13 16
Matt Irwin D 29 3 7 10
Miikka Salomaki RW 31 3 3 6
Austin Watson LW 29 2 4 6
Colton Sissons C 20 2 2 4
Anthony Bitetto D 16 1 3 4
Kevin Fiala LW 3 1 0 1
Petter Granberg D 16 0 1 1
Cody Bass C 9 0 0 0

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Old
09-14-2016, 09:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwhouk View Post
Mine

Player Pos GP G A PTS
James Neal RW 73 28 24 52
Filip Forsberg LW 71 25 29 54
Craig Smith RW 82 22 20 42
Ryan Johansen C 81 21 43 64
Mike Fisher C 67 16 17 33
Roman Josi D 80 14 41 55
Colin Wilson LW 71 12 20 32
Mike Ribeiro C 81 11 42 53
Calle Jarnkrok C 67 11 12 23
P.K. Subban D 75 10 45 55
Ryan Ellis D 72 9 21 30
Mattias Ekholm D 78 7 19 26
Yannick Weber D 52 5 8 13
Viktor Arvidsson LW 30 4 4 8
Matt Carle D 65 3 13 16
Matt Irwin D 29 3 7 10
Miikka Salomaki RW 31 3 3 6
Austin Watson LW 29 2 4 6
Colton Sissons C 20 2 2 4
Anthony Bitetto D 16 1 3 4
Kevin Fiala LW 3 1 0 1
Petter Granberg D 16 0 1 1
Cody Bass C 9 0 0 0
Well I hope your prediction doesn't come true- Unless my math is off that would be 18 fewer
than last year- and that total of 210 would put us around 25th in the league last year. We are in for a long year if that's the case....

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Old
09-15-2016, 03:46 PM
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jwhouk
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Those are ultra-conservative numbers. The players listed have those as their "established" level of performance - which means they have about a 50-50 chance of hitting at least those numbers.

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Old
01-08-2017, 09:15 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jwhouk View Post
Mine

Player Pos GP G A PTS
James Neal RW 73 28 24 52
Filip Forsberg LW 71 25 29 54
Craig Smith RW 82 22 20 42
Ryan Johansen C 81 21 43 64
Mike Fisher C 67 16 17 33
Roman Josi D 80 14 41 55
Colin Wilson LW 71 12 20 32
Mike Ribeiro C 81 11 42 53
Calle Jarnkrok C 67 11 12 23
P.K. Subban D 75 10 45 55
Ryan Ellis D 72 9 21 30
Mattias Ekholm D 78 7 19 26
Yannick Weber D 52 5 8 13
Viktor Arvidsson LW 30 4 4 8
Matt Carle D 65 3 13 16
Matt Irwin D 29 3 7 10
Miikka Salomaki RW 31 3 3 6
Austin Watson LW 29 2 4 6
Colton Sissons C 20 2 2 4
Anthony Bitetto D 16 1 3 4
Kevin Fiala LW 3 1 0 1
Petter Granberg D 16 0 1 1
Cody Bass C 9 0 0 0
JW looking back at these you are the closest IMO to any of the predictions at the halfway point. The two suprises Arviddson and Forsberg not something anyone really expected.

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Old
01-08-2017, 04:03 PM
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JW looking back at these you are the closest IMO to any of the predictions at the halfway point. The two suprises Arviddson and Forsberg not something anyone really expected.
uh no he's not. we are at 2.79 goals per game right now. his guess was 2.5 goals per game. I think i guessed 2.86 and several others were right around there.

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01-08-2017, 05:35 PM
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uh no he's not. we are at 2.79 goals per game right now. his guess was 2.5 goals per game. I think i guessed 2.86 and several others were right around there.
For the love of god man. What I was referring to was the number of goals each individual is pacing for the year. I I had meant total goals by the team I would have pointed that out directly.

Now as to total goals and gpg average. Right now at 2.79 could well be the peak of the year. Many guessed in the 230 to 240 area. At this point with injuries and all but collapse of the first half by every forward not named Neal or Arviddson it is safe to say the team total will be down to around 220 by years end. Leaving them at about 2.68. At 2.79 this is a .06 improvment over last year. The thing is last year there were only 2 teams over 3.0 gpg on the season. Right now there are 6 and if my math works on the team dropping to 2.68 by years end it will land them arround 16th in the league in scoring. Right now if they were at 2.86 as many had predicted it would place them in 7th. Now all that said this was supposed to be the year of the offensive explosion. There are two players pacing for 20 goals now TWO and one pacing for 30 if he gets off IR anytime soon. There are 20 players who have had at least 1 goal the issue 13 of them have 6 or fewer at the mid point.

I know you want to be the optimist about the team but its impossible to deny that as pretty as they skate and the things they do well is mitigated by the complete inability of abut 5 players the finish. Another issue is Johanson the frickin guy is flat out lazy. I have held my tounge about this and he should well be my new whipping bot since Smith has just totally **** the bed something that I am not suprised by.

Now im sure some are thinking I have jumped to another sinking team in the Bolts but they have there issues as well. Imagine this team had lost both Neal and another 20 goal scorer for the year. Losing Stamkos had that very impact, Also Kuch missed 10 days as well and Pallatte so injury has not just effected the Preds. Also the Preds took advantage of goaltending the other night which has been which has happened regularly since Bishop went down. This is pertinent to the Preds as well because Vasilevskiy is every bit as good as Sarro's who will have his issues for the next few years.

But back to the issue the young kids on the Preds roster for tonight have potential but it is still unrealized potential. Now not only do I see the Wilson and Smith contracts as a mistake I think Johanson is right in there as well. Sure sure he is due another contract. And a 60 point guy us great but this guy should be well above that for the price that was paid. There is not one person that can not say he does not have the skills to be a 20g 70 point guy but that again is potential.

How many OT's will this team have to play before a forward scores a goal????? Will the PP ever re-engage??? Too many people point at coaching. Well The decison was made to change coaches a while back and it was welcomed. The thing is now the chances these p-layers are getting just go by the wayside. You give them a two goal lead they will put up 5 or 6 goals but they can not play from behind or close games. They are 10-5-5 at home and 7-10-2 on the road or .500 at home and .360 on the road. The season may well be over by 1Feb with all the road games in Jan.

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Old
04-05-2017, 04:09 PM
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Forwards

#9 Filip Forsberg - 35
#18 James Neal - 32
#12 Mike Fisher - 12
#15 Craig Smith - 22
#92 Ryan Johansen - 27
#33 Colin Wilson - 8
#63 Mike Ribeiro - 8
#19 Calle Jarnkrok - 15
#38 Viktor Arvidsson - 9
#10 Colton Sissons - 3
#16 Cody Bass - 0
#20 Miikka Salomaki - 5
#52 Austin Watson - 5

Overall: 181

Defensemen:

#76 P.K. Subban - 10
#59 Roman Josi - 14
#14 Mattias Ekholm - 7
#4 Ryan Ellis - 10
#25 Matt Carle - 1
#8 Petter Granberg - 1
#2 Anthony Bitetto - 3
#7 Yannick Weber - 1

Overall: 47

Total: 228 = 2.78 goals per game.

I'm a little pessimistic on Wilson (burned too many times), Ribeiro, and Fisher, because I don't expect Ribs and Fish to stay healthy all year. I think Smith will have a slightly better season, Forsberg and Neal will do well, and Johansen has scored 33 in the past so I'm going high on him.

I'm expecting lower goal scoring from the defense, but more assists so slightly higher scoring from the forwards. We'll see.
There's still a couple of games to go, but we're already at 232 goals; slightly higher than the 228 I guessed. Still, not too far off.

I'm mostly just bumping this because I thought it would be fun to see how bad I missed some of my guesses. 9 goals for Arvidsson.

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04-07-2017, 10:05 AM
  #15
Drake744
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Forwards

#9 Filip Forsberg - 34 - 31
#18 James Neal - 32 - 23
#12 Mike Fisher - 15 - 18
#15 Craig Smith - 21 - 12
#92 Ryan Johansen - 19 (with a lot of assists) -14G/47A
#33 Colin Wilson - 14 - 12
#63 Mike Ribeiro - 8 - 4
#19 Calle Jarnkrok - 13 - 15
#38 Viktor Arvidsson - 7 - swing and a miss
#10 Colton Sissons - 4 8
#16 Cody Bass - 1 - 0
#20 Miikka Salomaki - 4 - not a good sample size
#52 Austin Watson - 5 - 5

Overall: 177

Defensemen:

#76 P.K. Subban - 12 - 10
#59 Roman Josi - 13 - 12
#14 Mattias Ekholm - 8 - 4
#4 Ryan Ellis - 16 (I'm calling a "breakout" year from him offensively, especially on the power play with Weber gone) - 15
#25 Matt Carle - 0 - 0
#8 Petter Granberg - 1 - 0
#2 Anthony Bitetto - 2 - 0
#7 Yannick Weber - 2 - 1, and I don't know when this happened

Overall: 54
Still a game left, but I'm bored, so.....

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Old
04-07-2017, 10:27 AM
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Still a game left, but I'm bored, so.....
Good call on the breakout year from Ellis. I had him down for 10 goals.

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Old
04-07-2017, 11:15 AM
  #17
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Arvidsson 18 (I expect a breakout this year, I really think he's a little strength away from being a very good scorer)
While being slightly off, this was the boldest and closest guess for Arvy

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Old
04-07-2017, 03:23 PM
  #18
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Still a game left, but I'm bored, so.....
Not bad, I'm tempted to do a corrolation r on that.

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Old
04-10-2017, 05:59 AM
  #19
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So we scored 18 more goals than last season, only gave up 7 more than last season, Rinnes numbers improved over last season (slightly), Saros sure seemed to be better than Hutton was... and yet we have less points and finished in a lower position

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Old
04-10-2017, 01:23 PM
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We had pretty poor goal distribution, with a bunch of blowout wins in the fall. Had those wins been a bit closer and we spread out those goals more, our record would have been better.

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Old
04-10-2017, 01:40 PM
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Pred303
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well, typical for me, i was very close on team goals scored (235 guess) versus 238 actual, being a little under in number of goals by forwards (183 guess, 191 actual) and a little over on goals from defensemen (52 guess, 47 actual). and as usual off on many of the goal totals by individuals (specifically neal, arvidsson, smith, ekholm).

i always like this little pre-season drill right before the season. mentally gets you into the game.

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