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Rasmus Ristolainen – Part 2

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Old
10-04-2016, 08:28 AM
  #26
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How good does Risto have to be tie the organizations hands and force an Ekblad level deal when we could have had him 1-2 mil cheaper this year? He's already our best defender if he maintains his trajectory he could end next season as our most valuable player without winning a Norris. 50 point defender playing close to 30 mins a night, you really interested in seeing what that arbitration would look like?

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10-04-2016, 08:33 AM
  #27
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How good does Risto have to be tie the organizations hands and force an Ekblad level deal when we could have had him 1-2 mil cheaper this year? He's already our best defender if he maintains his trajectory he could end next season as our most valuable player without winning a Norris. 50 point defender playing close to 30 mins a night, you really interested in seeing what that arbitration would look like?
We're not all idiots here. There's a reason we all pegged his contract at $6M going into the offseason. If our offer isn't close to that number and we end up doing a bridge followed by a huge deal, we're not doing ourselves any favors. Give him two more years at $4.5M, while he's playing 25 minutes and putting up 50 points, and you're just hurting yourself on the follow-up deal.

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10-04-2016, 09:15 AM
  #28
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It's a decent point, but TM/Bylsma plan on reducing his minutes. So while he may in fact play better his production likely stays around 40 pts.

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10-04-2016, 09:22 AM
  #29
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It's a decent point, but TM/Bylsma plan on reducing his minutes. So while he may in fact play better his production likely stays around 40 pts.
Or it might increase if he gets a more offensive role in those reduced minutes.

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10-04-2016, 11:14 AM
  #30
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With the comparables (Reilly: 6 yrs, $30 mill, $5 per; S. Jones: 6 yrs, $32.4 mill, $5.4 per) that are already out there, Risto's contract should have been easy for both sides to figure out. It is abundantly clear that either the Sabres are lowballing Risto, or Risto is looking for a fair amount higher than market value (or he is waiting for a Lindholm or Trouba deal to improve his bargaining position).

In my opinion, there is not a closer comparable to Ristolainen in the entire league than Seth Jones. Same draft year, similar draft position (4th vs. 8th), same age, same measurables, same NHL experience (3 yrs). While Jones' overall production is slightly higher over his three years (due to more NHL games played rookie year), Risto outproduced him this past year. That being said, once traded to Columbus, Jones' role, ice time, and production mirrored that of Risto's over the last half of the season.

Ultimately, past production and future trajectory is eeirly similar between these two players, IMO, and should have made Risto's contract easy to get done with Jones' comparable already in place. Analytics aside, I found Risto's past season to be slightly more impressive than Jones' (though future outlook between the two can be debated). Add in the fact that Jones' deal was signed first, and I think Risto should be looking at a slightly higher AAV than Jones.

A 6 yr, $34 mill deal (~$5.65 per) should have gotten this done months ago. If looking for more term, 7 yrs for $41 mill (~$5.85 per) or 8 yrs for $48 ($6 mill per) should have been easy enough to hammer out.

I am very interested to see where this contract lands, but really would be disappointed with a bridge deal with Eichel and Reinhart's deals to follow. While it would be hard to blame one side or the other not being privy to the negotiations, if it lands within the numbers stated above, both sides should be ashamed to have not arrived at such a simple outcome sooner.


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10-04-2016, 11:42 AM
  #31
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It's a decent point, but TM/Bylsma plan on reducing his minutes. So while he may in fact play better his production likely stays around 40 pts.
Perhaps, but any significant change to the Sabres' scoring rate will have a significant impact on Ristolainen's totals. The Sabres still had huge problems scoring last year, tied for 25th in GPG. One would think that should improve this season with the addition of Okposo, return of Ennis, year of development from Eichel and Reinhart, etc. There's still room for improvement on the PP from 11th-12th place and 18.9%, but the even strength scoring has almost nowhere to go but up. If it doesn't this team goes nowhere.

It'll be interesting to see if Risto is on the top PP unit all year as that is obviously a big part of how high-end defensemen tend to score points.

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10-04-2016, 01:06 PM
  #32
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Perhaps, but any significant change to the Sabres' scoring rate will have a significant impact on Ristolainen's totals. The Sabres still had huge problems scoring last year, tied for 25th in GPG. One would think that should improve this season with the addition of Okposo, return of Ennis, year of development from Eichel and Reinhart, etc. There's still room for improvement on the PP from 11th-12th place and 18.9%, but the even strength scoring has almost nowhere to go but up. If it doesn't this team goes nowhere.

It'll be interesting to see if Risto is on the top PP unit all year as that is obviously a big part of how high-end defensemen tend to score points.
For funsies - Risto earned a point in just over 20% of Sabres GF last season. Let's say they make a pretty big jump from 201 GF to 230, but his ATOI gets reduced from 25 to 23 mins. That results in a 6 pt jump from 41 to 47 pts. Ballpark stuff, but safe to say if the Sabres really increase their ES scoring Risto sees a minor bump in production if his mins are reduced (depending on what mins).

Not sure that would be heavy ammunition in contract talks, but it's a moot point as he'll be getting a multi-year deal (at least I sure as hell hope so).

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10-04-2016, 01:16 PM
  #33
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I think the impasse has to be more on Risto's side - Rielly and Jones are so similar to Risto's situation and I really can't see TM and Terry Pegula offering less than what they got. So I think Risto's asking for more and so far TM is being firm.

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10-04-2016, 01:23 PM
  #34
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I think the impasse has to be more on Risto's side - Rielly and Jones are so similar to Risto's situation and I really can't see TM and Terry Pegula offering less than what they got. So I think Risto's asking for more and so far TM is being firm.
The only thing I ask is how many years of RFA status did Reilly/Jones have before their deals were signed?

Because I believe Jones & Rielly have 4yrs of RFA status, so a 6yr deal eats 2yrs of UFA status.
Whereas Ristolainen, I believe, still has 5yrs of RFA status, meaning a 6yr contract only eats one year of UFA status.

This is where the organization could be seeing a difference for Ristolainen's contract.

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10-04-2016, 01:34 PM
  #35
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I predict the deal ends up something like 6 years 31.5 million... 5.25 per and right in between Reilly and Jones. I think this happens by GMTM holding strong and Risto and his agent moving off a 6ish demand a day or two before the season and accepting in lieu of a bridge deal. If so its a great deal for the club. I also dont WANT them to do a bridge deal, but i'd rather take my chances on a bridge deal than potentially overpay (granted, that is a relative term) for 6-8 years. gonna be an interesting week

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10-04-2016, 01:47 PM
  #36
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that and the small detail that PK won the Norris trophy during the bridge deal, which is highly unlikely for Rasmus in the next couple years on a team in transition....

The quality of montreal's team when pk won was not significantly better than what risto will have over the next few years.

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10-04-2016, 04:03 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by jshalt31 View Post
With the comparables (Reilly: 6 yrs, $30 mill, $5 per; S. Jones: 6 yrs, $32.4 mill, $5.4 per) that are already out there, Risto's contract should have been easy for both sides to figure out. It is abundantly clear that either the Sabres are lowballing Risto, or Risto is looking for a fair amount higher than market value (or he is waiting for a Lindholm or Trouba deal to improve his bargaining position).

In my opinion, there is not a closer comparable to Ristolainen in the entire league than Seth Jones. Same draft year, similar draft position (4th vs. 8th), same age, same measurables, same NHL experience (3 yrs). While Jones' overall production is slightly higher over his three years (due to more NHL games played rookie year), Risto outproduced him this past year. That being said, once traded to Columbus, Jones' role, ice time, and production mirrored that of Risto's over the last half of the season.

Ultimately, past production and future trajectory is eeirly similar between these two players, IMO, and should have made Risto's contract easy to get done with Jones' comparable already in place. Analytics aside, I found Risto's past season to be slightly more impressive than Jones' (though future outlook between the two can be debated). Add in the fact that Jones' deal was signed first, and I think Risto should be looking at a slightly higher AAV than Jones.

A 6 yr, $34 mill deal (~$5.65 per) should have gotten this done months ago. If looking for more term, 7 yrs for $41 mill (~$5.85 per) or 8 yrs for $48 ($6 mill per) should have been easy enough to hammer out.

I am very interested to see where this contract lands, but really would be disappointed with a bridge deal with Eichel and Reinhart's deals to follow. While it would be hard to blame one side or the other not being privy to the negotiations, if it lands within the numbers stated above, both sides should be ashamed to have not arrived at such a simple outcome sooner.
1. Well-written post. (I can follow your thoughts.)

2. While your facts are correct, there is still a difference between Jones/Rielly (and trouba & Lindholm) and Ristolainen. Jones/Rielly had 3 accrued NHL seasons and therefore 4 remaining RFA seasons before UFA when they signed their 2nd contracts/extensions. (Trouba and Lindholm will also have 3 accrued seasons when they sign, and therefore 4 remaining RFA years before UFA.) Ristolainen has only 2 accrued NHL seasons, and therefore 5 remaining RFA seasons before UFA. By offering a 6-year deal, BUF would only be buying 1 UFA year, which many of us here speculate Tim Murray is NOT willing to pay for as richly as you surmise.

3. Regardless of #2 above, why would both sides be ashamed to have not arrived sooner at an outcome if the eventual deal is in the range you speculate? If Ristolainen is indeed awaiting a Lindholm / Trouba deal to help bolster his case, how is that shameful? Conversely, if Murray is hell-bent on having a few-hundred-thousand more available when Eichel / Reinhart get their second deals, or wants the Lindholm and/or Trouba deals known to help set value, how is that shameful?

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10-04-2016, 05:59 PM
  #38
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The quality of montreal's team when pk won was not significantly better than what risto will have over the next few years.
i guess thats theorietically debatable, but i think you'd have very few on your side on this one. i remember for instance the second year of his bridge the Habs got the #3 seed and swept Tampa in the first round and then beat the Bruins in Game 7 of round 2 before losing to NYR in the ECF. I think its this kind of thinking of Buffalo fans (and i AM one) that has them overrating and in turn over valuing Risto. If people honestly believe Risto is in the same stratosphere of a Norris winner or the Sabres are on the brink of Eastern Conference finals, i can see how they'd be upset Risto hasn't signed for like 6.5+ million months ago

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10-05-2016, 08:19 AM
  #39
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Nothing on this? The clock is ticking

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10-05-2016, 09:18 AM
  #40
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Nothing on this? The clock is ticking
It is crazy to think about how many impact RFAs are still un-signed.

Risto, Johnny Hockey, Trouba, Lindholm, and Kucherov.

Throw Rakell in the mix and you have a great 5 man unit and one extra D left over.


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10-05-2016, 09:19 AM
  #41
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Nothing on this? The clock is ticking
I think it'll be resolved by the end of the weekend. Just a gut feeling.

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10-05-2016, 11:22 AM
  #42
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I think it'll be resolved by the end of the weekend. Just a gut feeling.
Am I allowed to be nervous yet?

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10-05-2016, 01:20 PM
  #43
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Am I allowed to be nervous yet?
Not before December. And you must hear Murray laughing while he states they are not even close to signing unless Risto goes all soft on Sabres and signs whatever paper is on the table.

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10-05-2016, 01:34 PM
  #44
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Am I allowed to be nervous yet?
Do you. The bright side is that he played meaningful games in the WCH - which were probably far more beneficial to him than any of these NHL preseason games - and he's skating with team. So the time to get up to speed will likely be minimal.

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10-05-2016, 01:36 PM
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After watching Eichel dominate the way he did last night, I'm getting pretty confident that we can be a really good team. Need to get Risto in there badly.

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10-05-2016, 02:40 PM
  #46
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Am I allowed to be nervous yet?
No one said you don't have permission when you asked this question 2 weeks ago. (i think it was you, lol).

You want to be nervous now? 2 weeks ago? 2 months ago? Go for it.

I personally won't be nervous until he sits out 35-40 regular season games. And i won't ask permission to be nervous before or after that time.

He'll get signed. And it will be for more than a few are willing to sign him for. Nature of the business.

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10-05-2016, 03:02 PM
  #47
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i guess thats theorietically debatable, but i think you'd have very few on your side on this one. i remember for instance the second year of his bridge the Habs got the #3 seed and swept Tampa in the first round and then beat the Bruins in Game 7 of round 2 before losing to NYR in the ECF. I think its this kind of thinking of Buffalo fans (and i AM one) that has them overrating and in turn over valuing Risto. If people honestly believe Risto is in the same stratosphere of a Norris winner or the Sabres are on the brink of Eastern Conference finals, i can see how they'd be upset Risto hasn't signed for like 6.5+ million months ago
I don't know if risto will win a norris, but i think he will put up the points to be discussed if the team is good enough.

As to that point, I think this team has the talent this year to make the playoffs. With a quality defender add or big growth by mccabe or guhle i could see them winning rounds in the playoffs in the next two or three years. Take a look at the roster on that montreal team, I think you will see the talent distribution is not much different than what buffalo will have.

Let's put it this way, if you think this team will not continue to improve over the next few years and or risto will not improve and or ride the team's successful wave, then by all means bridge him and save yourself long term money on a top 4 guy, which will still cost quite a bit down the road as the cap goes up.

But to me it seems like an extreme long shot. The team, with the current talent and resources, will undoubtedly get better. Risto is a young super talented player, who seems to have the psycho drive that separates people at this level. So i suspect he will continue to improve. And for him, improvement means top 15 defender in the league.

Let me ask you, if risto was signed to 6.5 for 8 years right now, what situation needs to happen for you to think that was a bad idea.

I'm thinking the only way that goes bad is if

1) risto bombs as a player
2) the cap nose dives
3) risto has massive injuries

1+ 3 seem unlikely or necessary risks in all contracts.

2 is possible... but still unlikely and more likely the cap goes up and this deal in 4 years is a league wide steal.

Worst case scenario is signing a bridge deal and then getting hammered with a 7-8 cap hit long term because Risto proved he was the franchise cornerstone we all think he is.

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10-05-2016, 03:36 PM
  #48
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Let me ask you, if risto was signed to 6.5 for 8 years right now, what situation needs to happen for you to think that was a bad idea.

I'm thinking the only way that goes bad is if

1) risto bombs as a player
2) the cap nose dives
3) risto has massive injuries

1+ 3 seem unlikely or necessary risks in all contracts.

2 is possible... but still unlikely and more likely the cap goes up and this deal in 4 years is a league wide steal.

Worst case scenario is signing a bridge deal and then getting hammered with a 7-8 cap hit long term because Risto proved he was the franchise cornerstone we all think he is.
I don't think Risto will bomb as a player. I think he is clearly still climbing toward whatever his peak potential is. the cap probably won't nosedive anytime, especially with Las Vegas coming aboard next year. As for massive injuries, i guess the best predictor of future performance is past.... and Risto has been very healthy. All that to say, i agree with all your points generally.

Nothing has to happen for me to think that 6.5 for 8 is a bad idea; the contract itself is bad on its face. I am a Bruins season ticket holder and have witnessed first hand the rise and (relative) fall of a team in cap jail. After Ehrhoff, Leino, Moulson, and sooo many more bad contracts over the years for the Sabres... i think its more important than ever to be responsible and save where we can now that we actually have an exciting team on the rise. THIS Risto contract will effect the team when its a contender for many years. The team is only really negotiating with itself, they have the majority of the leverage. Why when Reilly is getting 5, Jones 5.4, Dougie 5.75 (eetcc) would Murray give 6.5, when he OWNS Risto's rights for many more years? Merely out of good will? Because we all like Risto and want to watch him next week? We feel some sense of fan loyalty to him to say "pay the man! pay the man!"? I hope he will get paid, whatever Tim Murray deems him worth and not a cent more. The CBA is rigged heavily against someone in Risto's position, and it would be very foolish to ignore that as the employer. If the team starts slow the leverage balance will shift...

Let me ask you... what is the downside of taking this negotiation as far as the deadlines reasonably allow (Dec 1), in an attempt to get what could be Stanley Cup make-or-break level salary cap room for many years to come? The Sabres are unarguably a cap team and alwasy will be as long as Pegula owns them. So no one will ever call them cheap. Wouldn't it be nice for everyone to accuse them of being SMART instead?

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10-05-2016, 03:39 PM
  #49
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I don't think Risto will bomb as a player. I think he is clearly still climbing toward whatever his peak potential is. the cap probably won't nosedive anytime, especially with Las Vegas coming aboard next year. As for massive injuries, i guess the best predictor of future performance is past.... and Risto has been very healthy. All that to say, i agree with all your points generally.

Nothing has to happen for me to think that 6.5 for 8 is a bad idea; the contract itself is bad on its face. I am a Bruins season ticket holder and have witnessed first hand the rise and (relative) fall of a team in cap jail. After Ehrhoff, Leino, Moulson, and sooo many more bad contracts over the years for the Sabres... i think its more important than ever to be responsible and save where we can now that we actually have an exciting team on the rise. THIS Risto contract will effect the team when its a contender for many years. The team is only really negotiating with itself, they have the majority of the leverage. Why when Reilly is getting 5, Jones 5.4, Dougie 5.75 (eetcc) would Murray give 6.5, when he OWNS Risto's rights for many more years? Merely out of good will? Because we all like Risto and want to watch him next week? We feel some sense of fan loyalty to him to say "pay the man! pay the man!"? I hope he will get paid, whatever Tim Murray deems him worth and not a cent more. The CBA is rigged heavily against someone in Risto's position, and it would be very foolish to ignore that as the employer. If the team starts slow the leverage balance will shift...

Let me ask you... what is the downside of taking this negotiation as far as the deadlines reasonably allow (Dec 1), in an attempt to get what could be Stanley Cup make-or-break level salary cap room for many years to come? The Sabres are unarguably a cap team and alwasy will be as long as Pegula owns them. So no one will ever call them cheap. Wouldn't it be nice for everyone to accuse them of being SMART instead?

You really have to ask that?

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10-05-2016, 03:41 PM
  #50
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Let me ask you... what is the downside of taking this negotiation as far as the deadlines reasonably allow (Dec 1)
Teams make or do not make the playoffs in October and November...our chances are basically zero if we play those two months of the season without our best defenseman.

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