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Old
03-20-2017, 01:37 PM
  #151
Gm0ney
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
3rd on the Jets in goals/60 on the PP, ahead of Laine, Ehlers, Scheifele, etc.

Either we use stats, or we don't.
Goals are highly luck-based and non-predictive. He's shooting 20% on the powerplay -twice his 5v5 rate.

Sure, let's use stats, but why are goals the only numbers you want to talk about with Lowry? Is it because his numbers are meh-to-crap everywhere else? There's a term for that kind of use of stats...

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03-20-2017, 01:45 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Goals are highly luck-based and non-predictive. He's shooting 20% on the powerplay -twice his 5v5 rate.

Sure, let's use stats, but why are goals the only numbers you want to talk about with Lowry? Is it because his numbers are meh-to-crap everywhere else? There's a term for that kind of use of stats...
Playing defence and being able to defend the person your lined up against just doesn't ever really come into the equation does it

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03-20-2017, 01:48 PM
  #153
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Unfortunately the defense of protecting Lowry lies solely on how people view his inputs (size, etc)

It is very hard to make a case for lowering to be protected based on his output.

His outputs are weak enough that his "untrackable benefits" would have to be at a high end "second line" value for his overall worth to be close to that of Dano and Perraults trackable value.

I don't buy it, personally.

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03-20-2017, 01:53 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
Unfortunately the defense of protecting Lowry lies solely on how people view his inputs (size, etc)

It is very hard to make a case for lowering to be protected based on his output.

His outputs are weak enough that his "untrackable benefits" would have to be at a high end "second line" value for his overall worth to be close to that of Dano and Perraults trackable value.

I don't buy it, personally.
So in the expansion draft scenario where you protect 7 forwards you would choose Dano over Lowry?

I think it will be far easier for the Jets to replace Dano then Lowry. I also don't buy that Dano will produce at a much higher rate then he is if he can stay healthy. I would like to see his production over a full season at least 70+ games before I make any judgement on him. Especially considering Connor is likely to leapfrog him on the depth chart at wing.

While I don't want to lose Dano, I think because he plays left wing and with Connor coming along he is much easier to lose then Lowry.

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03-20-2017, 02:12 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
Unfortunately the defense of protecting Lowry lies solely on how people view his inputs (size, etc)

It is very hard to make a case for lowering to be protected based on his output.

His outputs are weak enough that his "untrackable benefits" would have to be at a high end "second line" value for his overall worth to be close to that of Dano and Perraults trackable value.

I don't buy it, personally.
Lowry's goals per 60 (5v5) exceed those of Dano and Perreault this season. He has higher primary points per 60 than Dano this season. Those are "trackable benefits" that shouldn't just be dismissed.

I accept that Perreault has been a better contributor over the past few seasons, but I think that should be offset somewhat by age, contract status and position. It's a closer call than advanced stats would indicate.

I would be very surprised if the Jets protected Dano over Lowry, all things, and I would be very surprised if Vegas selected Dano over Lowry if both were available.

I like Dano a lot and appreciate his visible contributions and underlying metrics. I'm a bit concerned about his durability, but that's another issue.

Overall, I think Lowry is a bit underrated around here.

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03-20-2017, 02:13 PM
  #156
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Playing defence and being able to defend the person your lined up against just doesn't ever really come into the equation does it
Are you saying he's particularly good at defending? I think he's alright...nothing spectacular. Not a guy I'd personally waste the 4th and final spot for XD protection on. If we went 7-3-1 there's room for him. But 4-4-1? I don't think so.

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03-20-2017, 02:23 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Goals are highly luck-based and non-predictive. He's shooting 20% on the powerplay -twice his 5v5 rate.

Sure, let's use stats, but why are goals the only numbers you want to talk about with Lowry? Is it because his numbers are meh-to-crap everywhere else? There's a term for that kind of use of stats...
Wrong.

Even with his rough sophomore season Lowry is an overall positive Corsi player, relative to team. According to Corsica, he's a positive xGF% player this season. He also has a better relative CF% than Dano this season. He plays a much more difficult role.

My posts about scoring were in reply to posts that specifically criticized his offensive production, which included secondary assists, that many analysts downplay. Goal scoring and primary points are a better guide to production than what was used.

Should we discount Scheifele and Laine's goal production on the PP ss luck too because off high shooting %? Do you think the fact that most of Lowry's shots are around the crease might lead to a high shooting %, especially on the PP, or is the typical eye test view that he's "stone hands" more to your taste?

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03-20-2017, 02:31 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Wrong.

Even with his rough sophomore season Lowry is an overall positive Corsi player, relative to team. According to Corsica, he's a positive xGF% player this season. He also has a better relative CF% than Dano this season. He plays a much more difficult role.

My posts about scoring were in reply to posts that specifically criticized his offensive production, which included secondary assists, that many analysts downplay. Goal scoring and primary points are a better guide to production than what was used.

Should we discount Scheifele and Laine's goal production on the PP ss luck too because off high shooting %? Do you think the fact that most of Lowry's shots are around the crease might lead to a high shooting %, especially on the PP, or is the typical eye test view that he's "stone hands" more to your taste?

So you are saying Lowry is undervalued? Hard to replace? what exactly? Do you know?

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03-20-2017, 02:39 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by pucka lucka View Post
So you are saying Lowry is undervalued? Hard to replace? what exactly? Do you know?
I'm saying that Lowry has generally been undervalued by many fans and posters on this board, often based on the view that he is poor offensively.

I would say it's a close call whether he should be protected over Dano or Perreault.

I think the Jets are likely to value Lowry more highly than Dano and possibly Perreault, as would many teams in the NHL. I don't think that's an unsupportable assessment, all things considered.

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03-20-2017, 02:39 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
3rd on the Jets in goals/60 on the PP, ahead of Laine, Ehlers, Scheifele, etc.

Either we use stats, or we don't.
Sample size.

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03-20-2017, 02:39 PM
  #161
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I think Lowry is over valued by the coach. Possibly the GM too. He's pretty good defensively, that's about it. Toughness, heart, manliness, yes ok sure. I am concerned that Chevy will pay him too much.

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03-20-2017, 02:45 PM
  #162
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I think Lowry is over valued by the coach. Possibly the GM too. He's pretty good defensively, that's about it. Toughness, heart, manliness, yes ok sure. I am concerned that Chevy will pay him too much.
I have a huge problem when we celebrate players who are completely replaceable. A small market should be digging in the nooks and crannies for the Petans & Perreaults of the hockey world. Not Lowry's. Minimally offensively skilled big guys are the biggest blind spot in all of hockey. The output is what matters.

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03-20-2017, 03:20 PM
  #163
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So in the expansion draft scenario where you protect 7 forwards you would choose Dano over Lowry?

I think it will be far easier for the Jets to replace Dano then Lowry. I also don't buy that Dano will produce at a much higher rate then he is if he can stay healthy. I would like to see his production over a full season at least 70+ games before I make any judgement on him. Especially considering Connor is likely to leapfrog him on the depth chart at wing.

While I don't want to lose Dano, I think because he plays left wing and with Connor coming along he is much easier to lose then Lowry.
I believe he always played RW until Chi and now Winnipeg. Coach Q and now Maurice have insisted he learn to play the left side with mixed results. His best production came on the right side.

We are a little light on the RW. We have Laine (same issue but other side) and Wheeler in the top 6. Armia somewhere in the bottom 6. Then what, or who? We have Little and Roslovic if one of them is not playing C. We have Lipon and Kosmo in the A but neither of them is exactly kicking the door down.

3rd line can be Connor - Petan - Dano
4th line can be Matthias - Lowry/Copp - Armia One of Lowry/Copp gone to LV. Lots of variables from there but none that affect 4C or 3RW. Maybe Armia and Dano swap. Maybe Roslovic pushes Petan aside. But do we have another RW I'm forgetting about?

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03-20-2017, 03:30 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
I'm saying that Lowry has generally been undervalued by many fans and posters on this board, often based on the view that he is poor offensively.

I would say it's a close call whether he should be protected over Dano or Perreault.

I think the Jets are likely to value Lowry more highly than Dano and possibly Perreault, as would many teams in the NHL. I don't think that's an unsupportable assessment, all things considered.
Sticking to the XD scenario and leaving the Dano comparison debate for a while do you disagree that Copp is a replacement for Lowry?

I think we can easily give LV their choice between those 2. Whichever one they don't take becomes our 4C who can move up to the 3rd line whenever necessary and who can play LW equally well. Their styles are a little different but I don't see any significant difference in their effectiveness. That is without digging deeply into 'advanced' stats.

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03-20-2017, 07:32 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Sample size.
I think that's selective use of the "sample size" argument. Point is that Lowry has produced on the PP in this his first season on the PP. The fact is that he's produced in his PP time this season. He's also put up respectable goal and primary assist numbers at even strength, considering usage and line mates.

That doesn't mean that I think he should be on the PP, but it's not based on objective statistics of his production on the PP.

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03-20-2017, 07:45 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Sticking to the XD scenario and leaving the Dano comparison debate for a while do you disagree that Copp is a replacement for Lowry?

I think we can easily give LV their choice between those 2. Whichever one they don't take becomes our 4C who can move up to the 3rd line whenever necessary and who can play LW equally well. Their styles are a little different but I don't see any significant difference in their effectiveness. That is without digging deeply into 'advanced' stats.
Actually, I'd be very happy if they kept both Lowry and Copp. Copp has shown that he can play quite well on LW, and then move to C if necessary. I also think he's developing into a decent PKer, and probably has the smarts and quickness to become even better.

Copp's sample size is getting bigger, and he continues to produce offense 5v5, even without playing with top linemates. Digging a bit into Copp's "advanced" stats, his expected GF% is actually very good (over 55%, according to Corsica). That suggests that he's doing something effectively on the ice. For me, the eye test for Copp is getting better and better. He plays fast, smart and big. He creates offense, and has shown good finish.

I think that the Jets will have a hard time letting any of Lowry, Perreault, Dano, Armia or Copp go. For me, it's actually becoming a closer and closer call among that group as we see more and more from each of them.

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03-20-2017, 07:50 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Actually, I'd be very happy if they kept both Lowry and Copp. Copp has shown that he can play quite well on LW, and then move to C if necessary. I also think he's developing into a decent PKer, and probably has the smarts and quickness to become even better.

Copp's sample size is getting bigger, and he continues to produce offense 5v5, even without playing with top linemates. Digging a bit into Copp's "advanced" stats, his expected GF% is actually very good (over 55%, according to Corsica). That suggests that he's doing something effectively on the ice. For me, the eye test for Copp is getting better and better. He plays fast, smart and big. He creates offense, and has shown good finish.

I think that the Jets will have a hard time letting any of Lowry, Perreault, Dano, Armia or Copp go. For me, it's actually becoming a closer and closer call among that group as we see more and more from each of them.
actually when you look at lowry copp armia Perrault dano and where the team plays them and with who I don't think they in their minds have a tough decision.

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03-20-2017, 07:54 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by pucka lucka View Post
I have a huge problem when we celebrate players who are completely replaceable. A small market should be digging in the nooks and crannies for the Petans & Perreaults of the hockey world. Not Lowry's. Minimally offensively skilled big guys are the biggest blind spot in all of hockey. The output is what matters.
What output?

Shots? Overall, Lowry is on the positive side of shot attempts relative to his team.
Goals and points? He's producing at a decent 3rd line clip now, especially considering goals and primary points.

I don't think it's objective to lump Lowry in with low production players. He has a good pedigree (he had 45 goals and was WHL player of the year), produced at a decent clip in his rookie AHL season (17 goals in 64 games), and has been producing at a reasonable pace this season (for a 3rd liner).

I like Petan and Perreault, but the narrative that Lowry is just a big lug is overstated.

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03-20-2017, 08:00 PM
  #169
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Not sure why people believe Copp has the same kind of defensive impact that Lowry does...

Is there some Data out there I'm missing?

Double checked both their Hero Charts and it's an interesting comparison between the two.

Lowry is clearly the superior player in shot reduction (1st line rate) and shot impact (2nd line rate). That takes into consideration the fact he isn't great at shot generation either.

Copp is clearly the superior player in scoring. He's prety much scored like a high end 2nd line player.

Not sure wich one is more valuable. I believe the jets nation article on forwards using XPM and Scoring had Lowry as close to 2nd liner and Copp as a 3rd...?

Wish I could post the hero charts but don't know how.

Anyways, depending on his contract and especially if it comes in pretty cheap I'm not sure he's as expendable as people think.

Lowry has done very well on the PP as far as the numbers show, especially compared to some of the other talent we have. Maybe it isn't sustainable but people should really cut out the he doesnt/hasn't shown he belongs there crap unless they have something I've missed to back it up. Just because you don't have great hands doesn't mean you can't effectively do a job well.

*I'd recommend anyone interested in checking out the Hero charts for forwards on Own the Puck. Makes the XD debate for guys Like Armia, Lowry, Copp and Dano more interesting. Judging only by them Dano appears to be the most balanced player producing in every catagory like a middle 6 player. Plus he is the youngest.

Still can't belive anyone would suggest loosing MP over any of these 4 players. He's the best by a country mile and is good value.


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03-20-2017, 09:01 PM
  #170
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From Garret in the Little thread....

[IMG][/IMG]

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03-20-2017, 09:08 PM
  #171
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From Garret in the Little thread....

[IMG][/IMG]
Shows that the JETS have a nice collection of forwards that have differing skills. Now add a suppression specialist to play with Buff on D, get a goalie and it should be off to the races if Maurice can figure out our special teams.

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03-20-2017, 09:34 PM
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Not sure why people believe Copp has the same kind of defensive impact that Lowry does...

Is there some Data out there I'm missing?

Double checked both their Hero Charts and it's an interesting comparison between the two.

Lowry is clearly the superior player in shot reduction (1st line rate) and shot impact (2nd line rate). That takes into consideration the fact he isn't great at shot generation either.

Copp is clearly the superior player in scoring. He's prety much scored like a high end 2nd line player.

Not sure wich one is more valuable. I believe the jets nation article on forwards using XPM and Scoring had Lowry as close to 2nd liner and Copp as a 3rd...?

Wish I could post the hero charts but don't know how.

Anyways, depending on his contract and especially if it comes in pretty cheap I'm not sure he's as expendable as people think.

Lowry has done very well on the PP as far as the numbers show, especially compared to some of the other talent we have. Maybe it isn't sustainable but people should really cut out the he doesnt/hasn't shown he belongs there crap unless they have something I've missed to back it up. Just because you don't have great hands doesn't mean you can't effectively do a job well.

*I'd recommend anyone interested in checking out the Hero charts for forwards on Own the Puck. Makes the XD debate for guys Like Armia, Lowry, Copp and Dano more interesting. Judging only by them Dano appears to be the most balanced player producing in every catagory like a middle 6 player. Plus he is the youngest.

Still can't belive anyone would suggest loosing MP over any of these 4 players. He's the best by a country mile and is good value.
Copp has some pretty sick goal differential. Could be a fluke, but teams don't score much against
when he is out there.

Halischuk and Peluso werent too bad in this stat either fwiw

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03-20-2017, 10:08 PM
  #173
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Copp has some pretty sick goal differential. Could be a fluke, but teams don't score much against
when he is out there.

Halischuk and Peluso werent too bad in this stat either fwiw
Copp's xGF% is very good, so maybe not just a fluke. I've really liked his D zone play.

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03-20-2017, 11:15 PM
  #174
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#198 in goals / 60 (500+ minutes). You don't get a lot of assists (and especially second assists) with Matthias and Armia.
Matthis historically is a better goal scorer than what he has been this year and all 3 are better producers than Lowry.

If anything, Lowry is holding their offense back.

OBPM suggests that Lowry's individual offence contributions at 5v5 are below replacement level.

That said, XPM shows that Lowry helps out beyond the box score stats.

Still, Lowry is a bad point producer at evens, and his PP production has nothing to do with which line he's on at evens and how he performs at evens.

He is no doubt better than his scoring, but I honestly am worried the offensive contributions he has on XPM that's pulling his below replacement level box score stats (OBPM) and PP offence is unsustainable and he comes crashing down to just defensive specialist again.

I think one group is over valuing Lowry, and one group is undervaluing him. Oddly enough, the truth is probably in the middle.


Last edited by garret9: 03-20-2017 at 11:23 PM.
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03-20-2017, 11:59 PM
  #175
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Matthis historically is a better goal scorer than what he has been this year and all 3 are better producers than Lowry.

If anything, Lowry is holding their offense back.

OBPM suggests that Lowry's individual offence contributions at 5v5 are below replacement level.

That said, XPM shows that Lowry helps out beyond the box score stats.

Still, Lowry is a bad point producer at evens, and his PP production has nothing to do with which line he's on at evens and how he performs at evens.

He is no doubt better than his scoring, but I honestly am worried the offensive contributions he has on XPM that's pulling his below replacement level box score stats (OBPM) and PP offence is unsustainable and he comes crashing down to just defensive specialist again.

I think one group is over valuing Lowry, and one group is undervaluing him. Oddly enough, the truth is probably in the middle.
I think you're probably right in valuation approaches. I am guilty of thinking that Lowry adds something beyond stats in terms of leadership, physical presence, etc. I realize that is subjective, and I probably put excessive value on it.

I'm curious, do the models weight goals, primary assists and secondary assists equally? If so, do you think that is an optimal approach? I know McCurdy dismisses secondary assists as "noise", which is likely an overstatement but conveys a reasonable perspective.

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