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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IV: A New Hope For Advanced Stats

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Old
12-12-2016, 06:54 PM
  #76
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I have a database of NWHL fancystats who wants to make this into a Shiny app for me?

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12-14-2016, 02:27 PM
  #77
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skip to 2:30

willing to bet this team is somewhat similar situation. not saying that's a good thing tho either.

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12-15-2016, 11:35 AM
  #78
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12-15-2016, 12:22 PM
  #79
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skip to 2:30

willing to bet this team is somewhat similar situation. not saying that's a good thing tho either.
Holy... just holy ****...

You mean Roy's system was predicated on AV's ridiculous "Skill over everything" system?

This doesn't WIN in today's NHL. maybe 6 years ago, but not today. Funny you show this video, look at the avalanche in the 14-15 and 15-16 seasons (that video is for the 13-14 season)--they have lots of skill guys, but when the skill doesn't work you're left with a bunch of forwards relying on their own hockey sense, and if they don't have that then you have a bunch of forwards relying on their defense, and when the defense can't handle that, now the entire team is reliant on the goaltender to keep them in the games, SOLELY so that the offense can capitalize "when they get a chance"...

It's almost like waiting for the puck to go your way, rather than trying to make the puck go your way.

Essentially, this type of hockey (aka AV's system) is actually PREDICATED on PDO... There's no possible way that stems to successful hockey.

This has been the rangers since the beginning of the 15-16 season... This alone tells me we need a new coach

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12-15-2016, 12:51 PM
  #80
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i believe Florida and its defenseman with those appealing shot numbers are inflated/deceiving.

top 10 in shots for but bottom 10 in expected goals. their previous management scheme was heavily stats based and probably forced the team into 'winning the corsi battle' and inflate the shot metrics

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12-15-2016, 12:58 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by 100Gs View Post
i believe Florida and its defenseman with those appealing shot numbers are inflated/deceiving.

top 10 in shots for but bottom 10 in expected goals. their previous management scheme was heavily stats based and probably forced the team into 'winning the corsi battle' and inflate the shot metrics
The idea that a coach "coaches for corsi" like perpetuated with Eakins is just absurd.

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12-15-2016, 01:07 PM
  #82
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The idea that a coach "coaches for corsi" like perpetuated with Eakins is just absurd.
Eakins was just a terrible coach.

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Old
12-15-2016, 01:13 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
The idea that a coach "coaches for corsi" like perpetuated with Eakins is just absurd.
Definitely debatable. Here's the distribution of attempts pre-understanding and post-understanding by the mainstream of the stats.




The first chart looks very 'natural' and balanced a result of playing actual hockey where something clearly looks like it shifted in the latter chart.

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12-15-2016, 01:18 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by 100Gs View Post
Definitely debatable. Here's the distribution of attempts pre-understanding and post-understanding by the mainstream of the stats.




The first chart looks very 'natural' and balanced a result of playing actual hockey where something clearly looks like it shifted in the latter chart.
This is a horrible instance of data analysis. Did you pull these charts from somewhere or is this your work? If you pulled it from somewhere, can you post the link to the full article? I'd like to see the method behind the madness.

Why on Earth was it a good idea to compare 6 seasons to 2?
Just because shot attempts weren't "mainstream" until 2014 doesn't mean teams didn't already have that knowledge (they did).

I just... ugh.

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Old
12-15-2016, 01:21 PM
  #85
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This is a horrible instance of data analysis. Did you pull these charts from somewhere or is this your work? If you pulled it from somewhere, can you post the link to the full article? I'd like to see the method behind the madness.

Why on Earth was it a good idea to compare 6 seasons to 2?
Just because shot attempts weren't "mainstream" until 2014 doesn't mean teams didn't already have that knowledge (they did).

I just... ugh.
Breathe...lol

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/03/16/nhl...y-george-soros

2 seasons of all 30 teams accumulated shot attempts should be a decent sample size?

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12-15-2016, 01:31 PM
  #86
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That's a massive shift in the distribution of attempts. 2014 was about the time teams really started hiring analytics specialists and when the stats started really becoming to fruition.

if you can show that a massive shift like this occurred in a 2 season+ span in that 08-14 time frame, then you might have a point.

it clearly looks like the 'rich got richer' in terms of trying to gain an edge in shot metrics

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12-15-2016, 01:57 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by 100Gs View Post
Breathe...lol

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/03/16/nhl...y-george-soros

2 seasons of all 30 teams accumulated shot attempts should be a decent sample size?
Quote:
I don’t want to overstate this phenomenon because the second sample is only one full season and about two-thirds of the current campaign. It also includes the 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres, who were so terrible that they may be a true outlier. So the jury is still out as to whether this relationship will hold up over the next couple of years.
He discredits his own analysis right in the article.

A better analysis would be to maybe try the two seasons (really 1 and 2/3s) prior to 2014, and then the sample after. Comparing 6 years of data to not even 2 years really makes no sense to me. I'd be fired if I did that.

Or, as you said, breaking out that 08-14 sample and seeing if we can find a similar distribution, or an uneven distribution.

LOL @ the timing here:



Last edited by eyjee: 12-15-2016 at 03:51 PM.
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Old
12-15-2016, 04:35 PM
  #88
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5v4 shot location charts:




Not a ton of structure.

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Old
12-15-2016, 04:39 PM
  #89
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That's really ****ing weird because I was just on hockeyviz about to post this:



Things and stuff. Perimeter player.

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12-15-2016, 04:44 PM
  #90
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Rick Nash never goes to the dirty areas.

My column:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac n Gs View Post
That's really ****ing weird because I was just on hockeyviz about to post this:



Things and stuff. Perimeter player.

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Old
12-15-2016, 04:49 PM
  #91
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Also, that whole Hunwick-Polak comment saga by Babcock today was interesting. Guy predicates his whole system based on smart neutral zone defense and cycling in the offensive zone. I really wish there were ways to quantify good neutral zone defense.

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12-15-2016, 05:07 PM
  #92
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Raanta makes subtle, simple and smart plays with the puck. Hank does not. How much of a factor can that be in the better Corsi numbers when Raanta plays compared to how the team is playing in front of each goalie? I read alot regarding how the team has been playing better in front Raanta, which is probably somewhat true, but I also feel that Raanta helps his own cause by efficiently getting the puck out of zone whenever he has the opportunity.

I mean when comparing CF% with or without certain players no one says "well McD plays better for Skjei than he does for Girardi because he doesn't trust Brady as much he does Danny G". That would be weird. But for some reason with goalies its not only accepted but preached. I'm sure there is something to it but not as much as everyone seems to believe.

I used to devalue goalie puck handling skills because unless you're Brodeur level the results aren't necessarily that obvious. I used to believe that goalie's are meant to stop the puck so positioning, reflexes, athleticism and vision are what matter. But I'm starting to think that in today's game, much like puck moving defenseman, the puck handling skills of a goalie is becoming more and more valuable to relieve pressure and help promote offensive zone time.

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Old
12-16-2016, 02:59 PM
  #93
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24th in shot generation
23rd in shot suppression

Pittsburgh is actually a worse shot suppression team than the Rangers but a much better shot generation team.

It's so hard to make sense of shot generation vs shot suppression problems because of the overlap between offense and defense in hockey. Offense and Defense aren't rigidly defined like in baseball or football.

You'd think poor Shot Suppression (us) == Poor Defense
You'd also think poor Shot Generation(also us) == Poor Offense (from a possession POV not scoring)

but it's not that simple either. The Rangers are fast and can score but they also seemingly don't generate enough shots. By how much of fault that is to the forwards remains unclear.

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Old
12-17-2016, 11:46 PM
  #94
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So, when does Manson go from playing like an elite defenseman to IS an elite defenseman.

Can't believe he only plays (and dominates) ~19 mins a game.

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12-18-2016, 01:58 AM
  #95
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So, when does Manson go from playing like an elite defenseman to IS an elite defenseman.

Can't believe he only plays (and dominates) ~19 mins a game.
It'll happen really quick like it did with Stralman.

Stralman went from "carried by Staal" to one of the biggest signings on Free Agency Day in a matter of two weeks.

You know what it is, once the offseason hits and people stop watching games with their biases, they actually look at the damn evidence.

He'll get his tires pumped this summer.

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12-18-2016, 12:43 PM
  #96
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All aboard the Manson train choo choo

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Old
12-18-2016, 07:44 PM
  #97
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Yeah, get Manson.

I like Manny's K stat. His manuscript is a good read if you have the time.


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12-19-2016, 03:49 AM
  #98
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Would be interested to see how well K does in the playoffs like we see with corsi.

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12-19-2016, 12:25 PM
  #99
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24th in Shot Generation. (51.83/60)

24th.

TWO FOUR.

I think the accepted stance on this is "Our defense sucks, they can't move the puck, we are always stuck in our own end. You can't generate shots from your own end."

Counter

"The team wouldn't have to play in the defensive zone and attempt to suppress as many shots if they were more adequate at playing in the offensive zone and generating shots." Defense are also responsible for this in the offensive zone too. It's clearly some combination of both. But, here, it's always just the defense.

The best Shot Generation team, Toronto (63.16/60), is also the 3rd worst Shot Suppression team(60.10/60)....The Penguins are a worse Shot Suppression team than the Rangers(58.15/60), but the 3rd best Shot Generation team in the league(61.41/60).

So, yeah, nonsense with it being only the defense thing.

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Old
12-19-2016, 12:28 PM
  #100
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Would be interested to see how well K does in the playoffs like we see with corsi.
CBJ and NYR are basically performing like aces this year. Holy ****. Give them co-Cy Young awards.

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