HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > New York Rangers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IV: A New Hope For Advanced Stats

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
12-12-2016, 05:54 PM
  #76
silverfish
Not a GM
 
silverfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Alphabetrium
Country: United States
Posts: 29,939
vCash: 500
I have a database of NWHL fancystats who wants to make this into a Shiny app for me?

silverfish is online now  
Old
12-14-2016, 01:27 PM
  #77
LiasAndersson
17-18 Calder Winner
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,540
vCash: 500


skip to 2:30

willing to bet this team is somewhat similar situation. not saying that's a good thing tho either.

LiasAndersson is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 10:35 AM
  #78
silverfish
Not a GM
 
silverfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Alphabetrium
Country: United States
Posts: 29,939
vCash: 500

silverfish is online now  
Old
12-15-2016, 11:22 AM
  #79
TheTakedown
Puck is Life
 
TheTakedown's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Country: United States
Posts: 10,656
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 100Gs View Post


skip to 2:30

willing to bet this team is somewhat similar situation. not saying that's a good thing tho either.
Holy... just holy ****...

You mean Roy's system was predicated on AV's ridiculous "Skill over everything" system?

This doesn't WIN in today's NHL. maybe 6 years ago, but not today. Funny you show this video, look at the avalanche in the 14-15 and 15-16 seasons (that video is for the 13-14 season)--they have lots of skill guys, but when the skill doesn't work you're left with a bunch of forwards relying on their own hockey sense, and if they don't have that then you have a bunch of forwards relying on their defense, and when the defense can't handle that, now the entire team is reliant on the goaltender to keep them in the games, SOLELY so that the offense can capitalize "when they get a chance"...

It's almost like waiting for the puck to go your way, rather than trying to make the puck go your way.

Essentially, this type of hockey (aka AV's system) is actually PREDICATED on PDO... There's no possible way that stems to successful hockey.

This has been the rangers since the beginning of the 15-16 season... This alone tells me we need a new coach

TheTakedown is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 11:51 AM
  #80
LiasAndersson
17-18 Calder Winner
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,540
vCash: 500
i believe Florida and its defenseman with those appealing shot numbers are inflated/deceiving.

top 10 in shots for but bottom 10 in expected goals. their previous management scheme was heavily stats based and probably forced the team into 'winning the corsi battle' and inflate the shot metrics

LiasAndersson is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 11:58 AM
  #81
Raspewtin
Fire Clowneault
 
Raspewtin's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Country: France
Posts: 32,948
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by 100Gs View Post
i believe Florida and its defenseman with those appealing shot numbers are inflated/deceiving.

top 10 in shots for but bottom 10 in expected goals. their previous management scheme was heavily stats based and probably forced the team into 'winning the corsi battle' and inflate the shot metrics
The idea that a coach "coaches for corsi" like perpetuated with Eakins is just absurd.

__________________
If you don't utilize any form of hockey statistics or willfully ignore them, please consider never making hockey judgments again.
Raspewtin is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 12:07 PM
  #82
Gardner McKay
Global Moderator
You had to be there
 
Gardner McKay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SoutheastOfDisorder
Country: United States
Posts: 16,918
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
The idea that a coach "coaches for corsi" like perpetuated with Eakins is just absurd.
Eakins was just a terrible coach.

__________________
--If we had no faults of our own, we should not take so much pleasure in noticing those in others. - Francois de La Rochefoucauld
--
Gardner McKay is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 12:13 PM
  #83
LiasAndersson
17-18 Calder Winner
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,540
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raspewtin View Post
The idea that a coach "coaches for corsi" like perpetuated with Eakins is just absurd.
Definitely debatable. Here's the distribution of attempts pre-understanding and post-understanding by the mainstream of the stats.




The first chart looks very 'natural' and balanced a result of playing actual hockey where something clearly looks like it shifted in the latter chart.

LiasAndersson is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 12:18 PM
  #84
silverfish
Not a GM
 
silverfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Alphabetrium
Country: United States
Posts: 29,939
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 100Gs View Post
Definitely debatable. Here's the distribution of attempts pre-understanding and post-understanding by the mainstream of the stats.




The first chart looks very 'natural' and balanced a result of playing actual hockey where something clearly looks like it shifted in the latter chart.
This is a horrible instance of data analysis. Did you pull these charts from somewhere or is this your work? If you pulled it from somewhere, can you post the link to the full article? I'd like to see the method behind the madness.

Why on Earth was it a good idea to compare 6 seasons to 2?
Just because shot attempts weren't "mainstream" until 2014 doesn't mean teams didn't already have that knowledge (they did).

I just... ugh.

silverfish is online now  
Old
12-15-2016, 12:21 PM
  #85
LiasAndersson
17-18 Calder Winner
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,540
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by eyjee View Post
This is a horrible instance of data analysis. Did you pull these charts from somewhere or is this your work? If you pulled it from somewhere, can you post the link to the full article? I'd like to see the method behind the madness.

Why on Earth was it a good idea to compare 6 seasons to 2?
Just because shot attempts weren't "mainstream" until 2014 doesn't mean teams didn't already have that knowledge (they did).

I just... ugh.
Breathe...lol

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/03/16/nhl...y-george-soros

2 seasons of all 30 teams accumulated shot attempts should be a decent sample size?

LiasAndersson is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 12:31 PM
  #86
LiasAndersson
17-18 Calder Winner
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,540
vCash: 500
That's a massive shift in the distribution of attempts. 2014 was about the time teams really started hiring analytics specialists and when the stats started really becoming to fruition.

if you can show that a massive shift like this occurred in a 2 season+ span in that 08-14 time frame, then you might have a point.

it clearly looks like the 'rich got richer' in terms of trying to gain an edge in shot metrics

LiasAndersson is offline  
Old
12-15-2016, 12:57 PM
  #87
silverfish
Not a GM
 
silverfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Alphabetrium
Country: United States
Posts: 29,939
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 100Gs View Post
Breathe...lol

http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/03/16/nhl...y-george-soros

2 seasons of all 30 teams accumulated shot attempts should be a decent sample size?
Quote:
I don’t want to overstate this phenomenon because the second sample is only one full season and about two-thirds of the current campaign. It also includes the 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres, who were so terrible that they may be a true outlier. So the jury is still out as to whether this relationship will hold up over the next couple of years.
He discredits his own analysis right in the article.

A better analysis would be to maybe try the two seasons (really 1 and 2/3s) prior to 2014, and then the sample after. Comparing 6 years of data to not even 2 years really makes no sense to me. I'd be fired if I did that.

Or, as you said, breaking out that 08-14 sample and seeing if we can find a similar distribution, or an uneven distribution.

LOL @ the timing here:



Last edited by silverfish: 12-15-2016 at 02:51 PM.
silverfish is online now  
Old
12-15-2016, 03:35 PM
  #88
silverfish
Not a GM
 
silverfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Alphabetrium
Country: United States
Posts: 29,939
vCash: 500
5v4 shot location charts:




Not a ton of structure.

silverfish is online now  
Old
12-15-2016, 03:39 PM
  #89
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
 
Mac n Gs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Country: United States
Posts: 12,171
vCash: 500
That's really ****ing weird because I was just on hockeyviz about to post this:



Things and stuff. Perimeter player.

Mac n Gs is online now  
Old
12-15-2016, 03:44 PM
  #90
silverfish
Not a GM
 
silverfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Alphabetrium
Country: United States
Posts: 29,939
vCash: 500
Rick Nash never goes to the dirty areas.

My column:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac n Gs View Post
That's really ****ing weird because I was just on hockeyviz about to post this:



Things and stuff. Perimeter player.

silverfish is online now  
Old
12-15-2016, 03:49 PM
  #91
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
 
Mac n Gs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Country: United States
Posts: 12,171
vCash: 500
Also, that whole Hunwick-Polak comment saga by Babcock today was interesting. Guy predicates his whole system based on smart neutral zone defense and cycling in the offensive zone. I really wish there were ways to quantify good neutral zone defense.

Mac n Gs is online now  
Old
12-15-2016, 04:07 PM
  #92
romba
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Brooklyn
Country: United States
Posts: 2,252
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to romba
Raanta makes subtle, simple and smart plays with the puck. Hank does not. How much of a factor can that be in the better Corsi numbers when Raanta plays compared to how the team is playing in front of each goalie? I read alot regarding how the team has been playing better in front Raanta, which is probably somewhat true, but I also feel that Raanta helps his own cause by efficiently getting the puck out of zone whenever he has the opportunity.

I mean when comparing CF% with or without certain players no one says "well McD plays better for Skjei than he does for Girardi because he doesn't trust Brady as much he does Danny G". That would be weird. But for some reason with goalies its not only accepted but preached. I'm sure there is something to it but not as much as everyone seems to believe.

I used to devalue goalie puck handling skills because unless you're Brodeur level the results aren't necessarily that obvious. I used to believe that goalie's are meant to stop the puck so positioning, reflexes, athleticism and vision are what matter. But I'm starting to think that in today's game, much like puck moving defenseman, the puck handling skills of a goalie is becoming more and more valuable to relieve pressure and help promote offensive zone time.

romba is offline  
Old
12-16-2016, 01:59 PM
  #93
LiasAndersson
17-18 Calder Winner
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,540
vCash: 500
24th in shot generation
23rd in shot suppression

Pittsburgh is actually a worse shot suppression team than the Rangers but a much better shot generation team.

It's so hard to make sense of shot generation vs shot suppression problems because of the overlap between offense and defense in hockey. Offense and Defense aren't rigidly defined like in baseball or football.

You'd think poor Shot Suppression (us) == Poor Defense
You'd also think poor Shot Generation(also us) == Poor Offense (from a possession POV not scoring)

but it's not that simple either. The Rangers are fast and can score but they also seemingly don't generate enough shots. By how much of fault that is to the forwards remains unclear.

LiasAndersson is offline  
Old
12-17-2016, 10:46 PM
  #94
gorangers0525
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,048
vCash: 500
So, when does Manson go from playing like an elite defenseman to IS an elite defenseman.

Can't believe he only plays (and dominates) ~19 mins a game.

gorangers0525 is offline  
Old
12-18-2016, 12:58 AM
  #95
Machinehead
You needa Chytil out
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: NYC
Country: United States
Posts: 66,991
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by gorangers0525 View Post
So, when does Manson go from playing like an elite defenseman to IS an elite defenseman.

Can't believe he only plays (and dominates) ~19 mins a game.
It'll happen really quick like it did with Stralman.

Stralman went from "carried by Staal" to one of the biggest signings on Free Agency Day in a matter of two weeks.

You know what it is, once the offseason hits and people stop watching games with their biases, they actually look at the damn evidence.

He'll get his tires pumped this summer.

__________________

Thank you for the fish, Dan Girardi!
Machinehead is offline  
Old
12-18-2016, 11:43 AM
  #96
silverfish
Not a GM
 
silverfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Alphabetrium
Country: United States
Posts: 29,939
vCash: 500
All aboard the Manson train choo choo

silverfish is online now  
Old
12-18-2016, 06:44 PM
  #97
Mac n Gs
Gorton plz
 
Mac n Gs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Country: United States
Posts: 12,171
vCash: 500
Yeah, get Manson.

I like Manny's K stat. His manuscript is a good read if you have the time.


Mac n Gs is online now  
Old
12-19-2016, 02:49 AM
  #98
Machinehead
You needa Chytil out
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: NYC
Country: United States
Posts: 66,991
vCash: 50
Would be interested to see how well K does in the playoffs like we see with corsi.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
12-19-2016, 11:25 AM
  #99
LiasAndersson
17-18 Calder Winner
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,540
vCash: 500
24th in Shot Generation. (51.83/60)

24th.

TWO FOUR.

I think the accepted stance on this is "Our defense sucks, they can't move the puck, we are always stuck in our own end. You can't generate shots from your own end."

Counter

"The team wouldn't have to play in the defensive zone and attempt to suppress as many shots if they were more adequate at playing in the offensive zone and generating shots." Defense are also responsible for this in the offensive zone too. It's clearly some combination of both. But, here, it's always just the defense.

The best Shot Generation team, Toronto (63.16/60), is also the 3rd worst Shot Suppression team(60.10/60)....The Penguins are a worse Shot Suppression team than the Rangers(58.15/60), but the 3rd best Shot Generation team in the league(61.41/60).

So, yeah, nonsense with it being only the defense thing.

LiasAndersson is offline  
Old
12-19-2016, 11:28 AM
  #100
Hunter Gathers
Thx Ghost in a Jar
 
Hunter Gathers's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: NJ/NYC
Country: United States
Posts: 102,298
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Hunter Gathers
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Would be interested to see how well K does in the playoffs like we see with corsi.
CBJ and NYR are basically performing like aces this year. Holy ****. Give them co-Cy Young awards.

__________________
"Of course giving Sather cap space is like giving teenagers whiskey and car keys." - SBOB
"Watching Sather build a team is like watching a blind man with no fingers trying to put together an elaborate puzzle." - Shadowtron
My MS Excel crashed so I couldn't watch the game. - ReggieDunlop68
Hunter Gathers is online now  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:52 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. @2017 All Rights Reserved.