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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IV: A New Hope For Advanced Stats

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Old
12-19-2016, 11:40 AM
  #101
Mac n Gs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hunter Gathers View Post
CBJ and NYR are basically performing like aces this year. Holy ****. Give them co-Cy Young awards.
I'm gonna guess that our numbers are reaaaaaallllly inflated due to that insane goal-scoring stretch we had at the beginning of the season. But, they've been playing better overall as of late, and slowly getting healthier always helps. Let's just hope they keep this up

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:17 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Hunter Gathers View Post
CBJ and NYR are basically performing like aces this year. Holy ****. Give them co-Cy Young awards.
K. Strikeouts. I see what you did there

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:20 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by an Girar i View Post
24th in Shot Generation. (51.83/60)

24th.

TWO FOUR.

I think the accepted stance on this is "Our defense sucks, they can't move the puck, we are always stuck in our own end. You can't generate shots from your own end."

Counter

"The team wouldn't have to play in the defensive zone and attempt to suppress as many shots if they were more adequate at playing in the offensive zone and generating shots." Defense are also responsible for this in the offensive zone too. It's clearly some combination of both. But, here, it's always just the defense.

The best Shot Generation team, Toronto (63.16/60), is also the 3rd worst Shot Suppression team(60.10/60)....The Penguins are a worse Shot Suppression team than the Rangers(58.15/60), but the 3rd best Shot Generation team in the league(61.41/60).

So, yeah, nonsense with it being only the defense thing.
Possession is a two-way street. Defense can absolutely influence shot generation.

Look at the names in our forward corps and the names in our defense corps and let's try to figure out who's responsible for being a **** possession team.

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:22 PM
  #104
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Also worth noting that two of our three best possession forwards are injured.

Who's missing on defense?

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:24 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Also worth noting that two of our three best possession forwards are injured.

Who's missing on defense?
Clendening.

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:25 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Adam Clendening View Post
Clendening.
Fair enough

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:27 PM
  #107
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Fair enough
Even with him, we still have no big threat on the point. He's just better than Girardi, and probably Holden.

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:30 PM
  #108
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Now there's guys we can certainly talk about in the forward corps.

Derek Stepan sucks and Kevin Hayes is the absolute worst non-4th-line shot generator in the NHL.

I mean we're only a 50% possession team when Girardi's off the ice. It's not like he goes away and we're the LA Kings. He's not the only problem.

But the fact that we're at 50 when he's off and the worst possession team in the league when he's on are problems one, two, and three before we even think about anything else.

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:42 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Possession is a two-way street. Defense can absolutely influence shot generation.

Look at the names in our forward corps and the names in our defense corps and let's try to figure out who's responsible for being a **** possession team.
Defense obviously influences shot generation, just like forwards obviously influence shot suppression. And, obviously D and F both impact Supression and Generation respectively.

Like you said, two way street. It's almost like defensemen are thought of having an exponential greater impact on possession as opposed to forwards.

Apart from keeping the puck out of the defensive zone, I am not sure there's anyother way to efficiently suppress shots. If we follow that logic, teams like the Penguins (if we look at the Shot Suppression metrics) must therefore spend a very similar amount, if not more, time in the defensive zone, no?

Unless the Rangers somehow spend more time in the defensive zone but are better at suppressing shots per defensive zone time? I call BS on that though.

And, yes, defenseman play a role in Shot Generation once they actually get in the offensive zone, like you said. By keeping pucks alive with pinches, becoming options by rotating in the zone, supporting the puck down low, etc.

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:45 PM
  #110
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The Penguins were 1st in CF% last year and top ten this year. I think the idea that they're spending as much time in the defense zone as we are is lunacy.

It's pretty simple. Rangers bad at possession. Penguins good at possession.

You're grasping at straws.

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:56 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
The Penguins were 1st in CF% last year and top ten this year. I think the idea that they're spending as much time in the defense zone as we are is lunacy.

It's pretty simple. Rangers bad at possession. Penguins good at possession.

You're grasping at straws.
Because the Penguins are a lot better at creating shots once in the offensive zone....

It's very possible the Penguins spend both more time in the defensive zone and offensive zone than the Rangers. The Ranger's don't play a very 'zonal' game.

The point is, just because you play in your zone a lot and don't suppress a lot of shots, doesn't mean you can't also generate a lot of shots in the offensive zone.

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Old
12-19-2016, 04:58 PM
  #112
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We're talking about 10th vs 27th in CF%

No, it's not possible that the Penguins spend more time in the defensive zone.

You're just doing mental gymnastics to pin all of our problems on a forward corps that has been one of the best in the league.

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Old
12-19-2016, 05:04 PM
  #113
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I think the problems with our possession are as follows

1)Dan Girardi is an infection

2)Kevin Hayes is a infection (but at least he scores)

3)There is exactly one possession driver in our entire defense corps. Holden, Klein, and Skjei are fine. Staal has been fine. But they're all meh. None of them carry play.

4)Derek Stepan

Our forward corps as a whole though, outside of Hayes, is as good as it gets. We have two major injuries and we still can't find spots for guys who should be playing in the NHL.

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Old
12-19-2016, 05:07 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
We're talking about 10th vs 27th in CF%

No, it's not possible that the Penguins spend more time in the defensive zone.

You're just doing mental gymnastics to pin all of our problems on a forward corps that has been one of the best in the league.
I don't have the Time on Possession stats and I doubt you do either.

Best in the league at what? Finishing, creating scoring chances, yeah maybe. In terms of overall offensive zone play and creating shots and dictating the pace, no.

Here are the teams stats when tied.

PIT: 50.64% CF% in 570 minutes
NYR: 49.50% CF% in 577 minutes


Why are you acting like there's some monumental difference between these teams? The amount of time the Rangers have played with 2-3+ goal leads this year heavily skews their numbers. They go full on turtle in those situations and aren't 'trying' to do anything in terms of a possession game. I am not agreeing with this strategy though.

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Old
12-19-2016, 05:26 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I think the problems with our possession are as follows

1)Dan Girardi is an infection

2)Kevin Hayes is a infection (but at least he scores)

3)There is exactly one possession driver in our entire defense corps. Holden, Klein, and Skjei are fine. Staal has been fine. But they're all meh. None of them carry play.

4)Derek Stepan

Our forward corps as a whole though, outside of Hayes, is as good as it gets. We have two major injuries and we still can't find spots for guys who should be playing in the NHL.
I wonder if it's worth noting that over the past two seasons, 33% of Stepan's 5v5 TOI was played with Girardi.

Together: 43.5%
Stepan apart: 51.4%
Girardi apart: 41.6%

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Old
12-19-2016, 05:31 PM
  #116
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Here are the 'non-leading' stats for both the Rangers and Penguins.

Total 5v5 TOI - 5v5 TOI Leading or 5v5 TOI Tied + 5v5 TOI Trailing

Rangers

TOI: 1000 (62% of total 5v5 TOI)
CF: 960
CA: 897
CF%: 51.69%

Penguins

TOI: 1035.6 (70% of their total 5v5 TOI)
CF: 1101
CA: 987
CF%: 52.72%

The Penguins are 1% better possession team when ignoring ice time with the lead which unjustly punishes the Rangers.

Let's go ahead and stop pretending that were the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh are the Lidstrom-era Red Wings. Let's also stop pretending that this the greatest forward group in the league who get no help from the defense, too.

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Old
12-19-2016, 05:33 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyjee View Post
I wonder if it's worth noting that over the past two seasons, 33% of Stepan's 5v5 TOI was played with Girardi.

Together: 43.5%
Stepan apart: 51.4%
Girardi apart: 41.6%
Certainly worth noting.

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Old
12-19-2016, 05:35 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Certainly worth noting.

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Old
12-19-2016, 05:57 PM
  #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by an Girar i View Post
Here are the 'non-leading' stats for both the Rangers and Penguins.

Total 5v5 TOI - 5v5 TOI Leading or 5v5 TOI Tied + 5v5 TOI Trailing

Rangers

TOI: 1000 (62% of total 5v5 TOI)
CF: 960
CA: 897
CF%: 51.69%

Penguins

TOI: 1035.6 (70% of their total 5v5 TOI)
CF: 1101
CA: 987
CF%: 52.72%

The Penguins are 1% better possession team when ignoring ice time with the lead which unjustly punishes the Rangers.

Let's go ahead and stop pretending that were the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh are the Lidstrom-era Red Wings. Let's also stop pretending that this the greatest forward group in the league who get no help from the defense, too.
Playing devils advocate - teams' CF% generally go up when they're trailing. Teams with a lead tend to go into a shell and the trailing team generates more chances because of it. It's probably better to look at score adjusted CF% or tie-game CF% if you don't trust the score-adjusted metric.

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Old
12-19-2016, 06:02 PM
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Knee1T View Post
Playing devils advocate - teams' CF% generally go up when they're trailing. Teams with a lead tend to go into a shell and the trailing team generates more chances because of it. It's probably better to look at score adjusted CF% or tie-game CF% if you don't trust the score-adjusted metric.
Yea. I really don't trust the some formula to 'adjust' for this. I doubt anyone posting in here can even tell me how it works in the fine details.

The Rangers have spent a similar time Trailing with Pit but lead the league in TOI when leading (almost 200 more minutes than Pit), hence removing it from the discussion.

I posted the Tied stats above, too, which favor Pittsburgh, but ever so slightly. The Rangers % is heavily skewed by 1) spending the most time with the lead in general and further by 2) spending the most time with multi-goal leads, which really drops CF%s.

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Old
12-19-2016, 06:44 PM
  #121
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Corsi against REL

Zucarello: -4.67
Vesey: -4.98
Kreider: -5.83
Fast: -6.90

Hrivik has only played 13 games as a Ranger but he's around -8. Buchnevich is at -8.88.

Centers and D leave a lot to be desired but we have some sick defensive wingers.

That's our ****** possession forwards for you.

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Old
12-19-2016, 08:20 PM
  #122
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From Michael Lewis's new book, The Undoing Project:

Quote:
People predict by making up stories
People predict very little and explain everything
People live under uncertainty whether they like it or not
People believe they can tell the future if they work hard enough
People accept any explanation as long as it fits the facts
The handwriting was on the wall, it was just the ink that was invisible

People often work hard to obtain information they already have
And avoid new knowledge
Man is a deterministic device thrown into a probabilistic Universe
In this match, surprises are expected
Everything that has already happened must have been inevitable
In the future, I think something fun that might be worth doing in this thread, is having everyone put a % chance that the Rangers win or lose a particular game that night. But don't just give a number, give a reason for your number.

Let's take tomorrow, for instance. I'm giving the Rangers a 42% chance of winning if Hank starts, and a 41% chance of winning if Raanta starts.

Why?

On the road.
Pittsburgh is really good
Not only is PIT good, but they're hot. Over the past two weeks, they have the 5th best 5v5 xGF% in the league. Rangers 20th.
No Rick Nash.


Last edited by silverfish: 12-19-2016 at 08:47 PM.
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Old
12-19-2016, 10:07 PM
  #123
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Ok much like Raspewtin did to Girardi a couple of years ago, I'm making an all-encompassing zone starts execution post.

Situation 1 - player takes a faceoff in the defensive zone; average CF% - 37.7%

Situation 2 - player takes a faceoff in the offensive zone; average CF% - 59.8%

Situation 3 - player takes a faceoff in the neutral zone; average CF% - 47.7%

Situation 4 - player jumps over the boards; average CF% - 50.9%

Those averages are from faceoff until leaving the ice or a whistle.

https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/...-in-aggregate/

____

Now, the isolated effects of situations 1 and 2 are massive, but how often do situations 1 and 2 happen?

Let's take 2,000 shifts for a heavy OZ start player, who fans claim "has good corsi because he starts in the offensive zone."

60% of his shifts start when he jumps over the boards. 1,200 shifts gone. Down to 800.

One third of his remaining shifts start in the neutral zone. That's 264. 536 shifts left.

Now even for a player who is OZ heavy, he'll still start 40% of the remaining 536 shifts in the defensive zone. (60% is a lot) Now we're down to 322 shifts.

Half of those 322 shifts, you lose the faceoff anyway and nothing happens.

161 shifts. 161 shifts out of 2,000 will be boosted by zone starts.

161 in 2,000 is 8%. Zone starts affect a given shift 8% of the time.

Zone starts in isolation have a massive effect. That's what everyone logically concludes (rightfully so) so they think it affects corsi as a whole. But these situations come up only 8% of the time. It's like a player who scores a goal of the year candidate every 10 games, and ends up with 8 goals.

They're useless.


Last edited by Machinehead: 12-19-2016 at 10:17 PM.
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Old
12-19-2016, 10:17 PM
  #124
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Derek Stepan is really good at hockey, and I hate all of you that say otherwise. FFS people. Razor-sharp analysis, I know.

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Old
12-19-2016, 10:18 PM
  #125
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Quote:
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Derek Stepan is really good at hockey, and I hate all of you that say otherwise. FFS people. Razor-sharp analysis, I know.
But what do his zone starts say?

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