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Old
02-08-2017, 11:35 AM
  #26
Drake744
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Originally Posted by Pred303 View Post
weber's gone, i'm over him. any critique of subban from me comes from the fact that i want him to be better to make our current team better. so when i say i'm 'disappointed' in his game so far, it's because well we need him to be better.

let me be perfectly frank on what i think he has done well and where he hasn't lived up to the post trade hype from a purely hockey perspective, as unbiased as i can personally try to be;

..subban's stick work is excellent. really superior. both offensively and defensively.
..his edgework is as advertised, in that he can turn on a dime, unusual for a big man.
..he is a real danger once set up on the blueline because of these two things in making quick moves and getting a shot on net.
..he has a hard shot.
..he is pretty solid running the pp out on the point.
..he sees the ice well.
..he is a better man to man defender down low in the zone than i expected.
..he does have a physical, chippy, at times downright mean aspect to his game that disrupts oppenents.
..he looks up ice for potential stretch passes more often than any of our other defensemen
..he's apparently a good. loud but evidently likeable guy to his teammates
..he seems to truly enjoy when the team succeeds
..obviously he's a charitable guy to the community.

all those are pluses without a doubt, and don't think any of them are truly disputable.

now things i have seen that i have been disappointed in. and i have watched subban play many games before this season;

..he's the slowest skater we have right now. Injury playing a part? possibly. i hope that's it. he simply looks much slower than past years.
..his lack of speed gets him in more trouble than anything else defensively.
..he has to be extremely careful when he decides to pinch down the wall, penatrate with the puck, or try to step up at the blueline because of this slowness to accelerate.
..because of that, at least 1-2 times per game he winds up chasing a man back down ice.
..many of his penalties have come as a direct result of trailing his man (like last night).
..like several of our players (johansen,neal, others) he can be undisciplined at the very worst times late in the game.
..he gets too many shots blocked out high from the point.
..like most guys who are excellent stickhandlers he tries to do too much too often and turns the puck over. which is much worse for a dman as last man back than a forward like forsberg deeper in the offensive zone. especially slow ones.
..he simply hasn't been the penetrating, defense busting, puck carrying dman in the offensive zone most of us thought we were getting. maybe it's trying to eliminate turnovers, maybe it's injury-speed related. don't know, but he looks mighty hesitant to carry the puck in deep.
..too often he's too careless with the puck, especially noticable on the short, soft backhand passes he tends to make that get cleanly intercepted, which seems to happen once per game.
..i think he is part of the new generation of hockey players who understand 'advanced stats' and that they will play a role in contract talks. as such i think he takes shots at times to simply 'help' those numbers. at least once or twice per game you see him take a shot from just across the redline (twice last night for example) and at times maybe take shots that get blocked from the blueline when no lane was really open. one or two shots per game makes tons of differences in corsi type numbers given the fact a dman tends to only play about a third of a game. (i realize this is a wild out there observation that might be totally off base, but i cann't help but think it watching nightly shots from the redline)

again, i have never been a personal 'fan' of subban, going back to the old rivalry with montreal fanboys that i thought overated him. i also am an older old school guy who simply has never liked what i thought were 'look at me' type players. i realize that age seems to be a dividing line here of old school versus personality in several cases. that's ok. it's ok to not be a personal fan of one of our players too. i try to be a fan of success and a non-fan of failure for us and not for or against individuals. again, i just want him to be better so that we are better.
Good assessment and I'm only quoting this so it doesn't get buried at the end of page 1.

One question for some people though. I'm more pro-Subban than anti-Subban despite his weaknesses and that's all well and good whether you agree with that or not. However we keep getting people saying how much we struggle this year after the trade and we have to be a better team, we have no chemistry, we're struggling, etc. The point is through 54 games this year we have 60 points and last year at this point we had 58. There's no doubt that something just doesn't pass the eye test with this year's team but we're getting results on par with, or slightly better, than last season's team. Are things really that bad in comparison? Subban or not? We missed him for 16 games or whatever it was and our top forwards not named Arvidsson SUUUCKED early on for way too long. Yet here we are, two points ahead of last season.

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02-08-2017, 11:46 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
Good assessment and I'm only quoting this so it doesn't get buried at the end of page 1.

One question for some people though. I'm more pro-Subban than anti-Subban despite his weaknesses and that's all well and good whether you agree with that or not. However we keep getting people saying how much we struggle this year after the trade and we have to be a better team, we have no chemistry, we're struggling, etc. The point is through 54 games this year we have 60 points and last year at this point we had 58. There's no doubt that something just doesn't pass the eye test with this year's team but we're getting results on par with, or slightly better, than last season's team. Are things really that bad in comparison? Subban or not? We missed him for 16 games or whatever it was and our top forwards not named Arvidsson SUUUCKED early on for way too long. Yet here we are, two points ahead of last season.
Exactly- I have been saying this over and over and over but of course, no one will ever acknowledge it because it hurts their argument that the trade has ruined our team and we have taken a huge step back. As I posted previously, not only do we have a better record, but also a better offense AND defense than at this time last year.............

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02-08-2017, 11:47 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
Good assessment and I'm only quoting this so it doesn't get buried at the end of page 1.

One question for some people though. I'm more pro-Subban than anti-Subban despite his weaknesses and that's all well and good whether you agree with that or not. However we keep getting people saying how much we struggle this year after the trade and we have to be a better team, we have no chemistry, we're struggling, etc. The point is through 54 games this year we have 60 points and last year at this point we had 58. There's no doubt that something just doesn't pass the eye test with this year's team but we're getting results on par with, or slightly better, than last season's team. Are things really that bad in comparison? Subban or not? We missed him for 16 games or whatever it was and our top forwards not named Arvidsson SUUUCKED early on for way too long. Yet here we are, two points ahead of last season.
My thoughts on this are that this opinion is banking on finishing strong like last year. No one knows how we will really finish. We basically have created a hole and now have semi dug out of it, but we are basically a bubble team at the moment and really need a great run to end the year.

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02-08-2017, 11:48 AM
  #29
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First of all I am glad there is a dedicated thread- hopefully I will have the will power to just stay out of it and keep my sanity.

But I find it hilarious- we get a separate thread and all you have to do is read the first few posts and you get the Cliffs Notes version of the Subban criticism- (he is slow, he isn’t dynamic, he doesn’t live up to the billing, etc, etc, etc).

What I find fascinating is that many who are ultra-critical of Subban act like they have never seen him play before. It’s as if we traded for some mythical player who came from Mars who no one has ever actually seen play, but just heard about.

“David Poile told us Subban was dynamic player”
“ I thought he was fast- he is much slower than I thought he would be”
“ Nowhere near as good as he was billed to be”
“ Montreal fans say he turns it on and is a beast in the playoffs- I will wait and judge him then”

Have any of you guys who are critical ever watched him play before??? I have never seen anything like this in that everyone bases their criticisms on what other people have said about him. I have been watching him since he came into the league- it wasn’t hard- he is only one of the most visible players in the entire league. I have watched him play for years- I don’t need to judge him based on what others have said about him.

And I continue to see people talking about how much slower he is- I guess I am in the minority, but I just don’t see it. He may have been slowed a little around the time of his injury and the first game or two back from it, but right now he looks the same to me as he has always been. I honestly think people are thinking he is something that he never was. I wish there was some way to definitively prove whether he actually is slower now than he used to be, so we could put this part of the discussion to bed.

Just reading through the unbelievably detailed posts in this new thread, and the passion people seem to have for criticizing him, I will just repeat what I have been saying- the whole PK Subban phenomenon is one of the most fascinating things I have ever seen in sports.

I am in the vast minority, but I am happy we have PK on our team and I firmly believe this trade will wind up being a good move for the Predators, and not just long term.

Finally, I was thinking about this last night- what if we had just signed Subban as a free agent, and not traded Weber for him? I guarantee you wouldn’t see half the criticism that you see now. Which is a pretty good clue as to the root cause of the negativity.

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02-08-2017, 11:53 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
First of all I am glad there is a dedicated thread- hopefully I will have the will power to just stay out of it and keep my sanity.

But I find it hilarious- we get a separate thread and all you have to do is read the first few posts and you get the Cliffs Notes version of the Subban criticism- (he is slow, he isn’t dynamic, he doesn’t live up to the billing, etc, etc, etc).

What I find fascinating is that many who are ultra-critical of Subban act like they have never seen him play before. It’s as if we traded for some mythical player who came from Mars who no one has ever actually seen play, but just heard about.

“David Poile told us Subban was dynamic player”
“ I thought he was fast- he is much slower than I thought he would be”
“ Nowhere near as good as he was billed to be”
“ Montreal fans say he turns it on and is a beast in the playoffs- I will wait and judge him then”

Have any of you guys who are critical ever watched him play before??? I have never seen anything like this in that everyone bases their criticisms on what other people have said about him. I have been watching him since he came into the league- it wasn’t hard- he is only one of the most visible players in the entire league. I have watched him play for years- I don’t need to judge him based on what others have said about him.

And I continue to see people talking about how much slower he is- I guess I am in the minority, but I just don’t see it. He may have been slowed a little around the time of his injury and the first game or two back from it, but right now he looks the same to me as he has always been. I honestly think people are thinking he is something that he never was. I wish there was some way to definitively prove whether he actually is slower now than he used to be, so we could put this part of the discussion to bed.

Just reading through the unbelievably detailed posts in this new thread, and the passion people seem to have for criticizing him, I will just repeat what I have been saying- the whole PK Subban phenomenon is one of the most fascinating things I have ever seen in sports.

I am in the vast minority, but I am happy we have PK on our team and I firmly believe this trade will wind up being a good move for the Predators, and not just long term.

Finally, I was thinking about this last night- what if we had just signed Subban as a free agent, and not traded Weber for him? I guarantee you wouldn’t see half the criticism that you see now. Which is a pretty good clue as to the root cause of the negativity.
Are you able to watch every NHL game every night all season? You make it sound like that is something easy to do. I have seen a handful of Montreal games each year the past few years, but with that you only get a small sample size and not the full picture.

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02-08-2017, 12:17 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by drwpreds View Post
First of all I am glad there is a dedicated thread- hopefully I will have the will power to just stay out of it and keep my sanity.

But I find it hilarious- we get a separate thread and all you have to do is read the first few posts and you get the Cliffs Notes version of the Subban criticism- (he is slow, he isn’t dynamic, he doesn’t live up to the billing, etc, etc, etc).

What I find fascinating is that many who are ultra-critical of Subban act like they have never seen him play before. It’s as if we traded for some mythical player who came from Mars who no one has ever actually seen play, but just heard about.

“David Poile told us Subban was dynamic player”
“ I thought he was fast- he is much slower than I thought he would be”
“ Nowhere near as good as he was billed to be”
“ Montreal fans say he turns it on and is a beast in the playoffs- I will wait and judge him then”

Have any of you guys who are critical ever watched him play before??? I have never seen anything like this in that everyone bases their criticisms on what other people have said about him. I have been watching him since he came into the league- it wasn’t hard- he is only one of the most visible players in the entire league. I have watched him play for years- I don’t need to judge him based on what others have said about him.

And I continue to see people talking about how much slower he is- I guess I am in the minority, but I just don’t see it. He may have been slowed a little around the time of his injury and the first game or two back from it, but right now he looks the same to me as he has always been. I honestly think people are thinking he is something that he never was. I wish there was some way to definitively prove whether he actually is slower now than he used to be, so we could put this part of the discussion to bed.

Just reading through the unbelievably detailed posts in this new thread, and the passion people seem to have for criticizing him, I will just repeat what I have been saying- the whole PK Subban phenomenon is one of the most fascinating things I have ever seen in sports.

I am in the vast minority, but I am happy we have PK on our team and I firmly believe this trade will wind up being a good move for the Predators, and not just long term.

Finally, I was thinking about this last night- what if we had just signed Subban as a free agent, and not traded Weber for him? I guarantee you wouldn’t see half the criticism that you see now. Which is a pretty good clue as to the root cause of the negativity.
I did watch him before but never studied his play like I do now, because now, he's one of ours.



You keep telling us, what we said, and how you think it's so interesting, yet you've not told us yet what you think of his play. Why was trading our Captain, worth it to get this guy?

I follow defensemen because I love defense. I follow the Predators, because I love Nashville. I probably spend more time watching defensemen than I should, and sometimes, I need to see the bigger picture. So you tell me, where is the bigger picture, I'm missing. What value is he bringing to this team right now.

You keep talking about all the "hate" but not offering up any love, you're just bashing us.....

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02-08-2017, 12:25 PM
  #32
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Exactly- I have been saying this over and over and over but of course, no one will ever acknowledge it because it hurts their argument that the trade has ruined our team and we have taken a huge step back. As I posted previously, not only do we have a better record, but also a better offense AND defense than at this time last year.............
I think the point - with respect to the team - is that Subban for Webs was announced to have made us a better team right then. However..... I personally think that it's debatable. The trade isn't what is making us a better team, it's the stuff that would have happened anyway - like Ellis coming into his own. Or Arvy. Or Irwin saving our 3rd pair, and playing very capably up to cover injuries. Or Peks being Peks. Etc. None of that is PK. That's not a knock on him at all - I'm with 303 - the only thing that matters now is how PK is performing, and I would probably be in the camp that says he has not lived up to what we need him to do to get to that next step, which IS what Poile promoted to us when discussing the trade.

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02-08-2017, 12:28 PM
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From an advanced stats view his corsi is at 55% and his PDO is at 97. His average over the past 3 years is 52% and 100, which says to me that he is driving play better but bounces are not going his way.

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02-08-2017, 12:29 PM
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From an advanced stats view his corsi is at 55% and his PDO is at 97. His average over the past 3 years is 52% and 100, which says to me that he is driving play better but bounces are not going his way.
Which means nothing to me. These advanced stats seem to lie or hide the truth sometimes.

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02-08-2017, 12:40 PM
  #35
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Subban looked pretty good taking a penalty right after we scored last night and let the Canucks get to within one almost costing us the game.
The guy just is not as good as people think, plain and simple.
He only got so much hype because he played in mega market of the crap habs and was big with charity and is a character off the ice. He's not a star defenseman on the ice. Period.
Causes more goals against then he causes for.
Weber has more penalty minutes than PK this year. Weber took plenty of penalties, weber was not a lidstrom. Weber slammed zetterbergs face in the glass in the P.O.'s after the game was over. Nothing happened from that but dont act like he didnt take dumb penalties too...

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02-08-2017, 12:51 PM
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Which means nothing to me. These advanced stats seem to lie or hide the truth sometimes.
A good example of the type of thing that people say when they don't like what the stats suggest. Kind of like a reverse confirmation bias.

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02-08-2017, 12:58 PM
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A good example of the type of thing that people say when they don't like what the stats suggest. Kind of like a reverse confirmation bias.
I did say sometimes and not always. They are not always accurate, they are just a tool. Weber is an example of that. Was Weber in his last year or two a Norris worthy defenseman? No. However, I do not think he was as bad as those advanced stats show.

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02-08-2017, 01:03 PM
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A good example of the type of thing that people say when they don't like what the stats suggest. Kind of like a reverse confirmation bias.
It's more about criticizing the stat. He's developing more shots towards the opposition's goal than his own but that stat doesn't tell us which of the attempts made it all the way to the net.

It's about the scoresheet, and Subban has definitely been lacking a lot in that department. I'm not settling for a defenseman who's a corsi god but can't get points.

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02-08-2017, 01:07 PM
  #39
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It's more about criticizing the stat. He's developing more shots towards the opposition's goal than his own but that stat doesn't tell us which of the attempts made it all the way to the net.

It's about the scoresheet, and Subban has definitely been lacking a lot in that department. I'm not settling for a defenseman who's a corsi god but can't get points.
Corsi, for the zillionth time, shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum, and nor is it about points. It simply says that when Subban is on the ice, the team is on offense more than defense, and that's a very simple formula for winning games. Teams that do well on the possession sheet tend to have more success, and more sustained success than teams that don't.

Has Subban played to potential to this point? No, i don't think we've seen him any better than about 75 percent of what he can be...but all that said, he is doing what he was brought in to do, so it's not a total failure. I'm not saying that the critiques aren't without merit, and why isn't he playing to potential? Discomfort with system? Effort? Injury? That's a real question, but it would be disingenuous to say that he's not driving play, even if it doesn't directly translate to points.

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02-08-2017, 01:21 PM
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Has Subban played to potential to this point? No, i don't think we've seen him any better than about 75 percent of what he can be...but all that said, he is doing what he was brought in to do, so it's not a total failure. I'm not saying that the critiques aren't without merit, and why isn't he playing to potential? Discomfort with system? Effort? Injury? That's a real question, but it would be disingenuous to say that he's not driving play, even if it doesn't directly translate to points.
I know where you're going with this, but I have to disagree. Driving the offense up is a positive thing, but how many times has he generated a legitimate opportunity for a teammate to score? There's some I remember from recent games, but the general play he has had is just that he gets the puck up ice and it's just general hacking the puck forwards if possible. How often do high corsi numbers correlate to high point totals?

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02-08-2017, 01:34 PM
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I know where you're going with this, but I have to disagree. Driving the offense up is a positive thing, but how many times has he generated a legitimate opportunity for a teammate to score? There's some I remember from recent games, but the general play he has had is just that he gets the puck up ice and it's just general hacking the puck forwards if possible. How often do high corsi numbers correlate to high point totals?
That's not the intent of Corsi. You're suggesting that raw possession isn't valuable and shouldn't be used to measure a player -- inherently, I (and the NHL on the whole) disagree. You're asking it to do something it doesn't measure, and dismissing it as worthless without that information...which, again, I think you're wrong about.

You might see more value in the "Expected Goals" statistic, however:

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/...-goals-part-i/

This is something that I think some of you (Steve, you've mentioned a distaste for the disparity between Corsi and true scoring chances...this is an attempt to reconcile the two) may appreciate. It's the first advanced statistic that acknowledges and accounts for shot quality, using the metrics discussed above.

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02-08-2017, 01:44 PM
  #42
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Finally, I was thinking about this last night- what if we had just signed Subban as a free agent, and not traded Weber for him? I guarantee you wouldn’t see half the criticism that you see now. Which is a pretty good clue as to the root cause of the negativity.
I thought about the exact same thing this morning. (Okay it was acquiring him through the draft, not free agency, but semantics). There is less than zero doubt in my mind that there is a portion of the fan base who criticize him way too much because we gave up Weber for him. Which I get to an extent, but it's also not a fair bias to already have when judging Subban. Weber was my favorite player for years but it's not like he's a flawless defender these days either. We had a decade to build a defensive corps and scheme based around him so sure, missing him will be noticeable, but it is what it is. Maybe we've had a little bit of an identity crisis switching from Weber and Company on the blueline to The Big 4 including Subban but I do think long-term it was the right move. Is there a bit of trader's remorse right now? Maybe as it stands right at this exact point but I firmly believe 2 or 3 years down the road this bumpy start (even then that's harsh) will be a forgotten time.

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02-08-2017, 01:46 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by nomorekids View Post
That's not the intent of Corsi. You're suggesting that raw possession isn't valuable and shouldn't be used to measure a player -- inherently, I (and the NHL on the whole) disagree. You're asking it to do something it doesn't measure, and dismissing it as worthless without that information...which, again, I think you're wrong about.

You might see more value in the "Expected Goals" statistic, however:

http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/...-goals-part-i/

This is something that I think some of you (Steve, you've mentioned a distaste for the disparity between Corsi and true scoring chances...this is an attempt to reconcile the two) may appreciate. It's the first advanced statistic that acknowledges and accounts for shot quality, using the metrics discussed above.
Thanks. Talks like this give me a wider spectrum of how I see hockey. The article was good. I still need to venture more into the world of ''side-stats'' to understand them more though.

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02-08-2017, 01:48 PM
  #44
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I thought about the exact same thing this morning. (Okay it was acquiring him through the draft, not free agency, but semantics). There is less than zero doubt in my mind that there is a portion of the fan base who criticize him way too much because we gave up Weber for him. Which I get to an extent, but it's also not a fair bias to already have when judging Subban. Weber was my favorite player for years but it's not like he's a flawless defender these days either. We had a decade to build a defensive corps and scheme based around him so sure, missing him will be noticeable, but it is what it is. Maybe we've had a little bit of an identity crisis switching from Weber and Company on the blueline to The Big 4 including Subban but I do think long-term it was the right move. Is there a bit of trader's remorse right now? Maybe as it stands right at this exact point but I firmly believe 2 or 3 years down the road this bumpy start (even then that's harsh) will be a forgotten time.
It's worth noting too that just by reading this board, you'd assume that Montreal fans were high-fiving up and down the street about the trade, but there's just as much hand-wringing over there. Their most popular player got traded, and the new guy's flaws are under the microscope. Every failed clear, every time he gets beat one on one...stuff that happened here but we were able to overlook...gets called out and ripped apart, "that never would have happened to PK"

I expect that in the next year or two, that will die down.

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02-08-2017, 02:06 PM
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Gnashville
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Originally Posted by maplepred View Post
Subban looked pretty good taking a penalty right after we scored last night and let the Canucks get to within one almost costing us the game.
The guy just is not as good as people think, plain and simple.
He only got so much hype because he played in mega market of the crap habs and was big with charity and is a character off the ice. He's not a star defenseman on the ice. Period.
Causes more goals against then he causes for.
I tend to agree with this assessment myself. Weber should have never been traded and I warned everyone when he was being offered for trash in trades.

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02-08-2017, 02:31 PM
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I did watch him before but never studied his play like I do now, because now, he's one of ours.



You keep telling us, what we said, and how you think it's so interesting, yet you've not told us yet what you think of his play. Why was trading our Captain, worth it to get this guy?

I follow defensemen because I love defense. I follow the Predators, because I love Nashville. I probably spend more time watching defensemen than I should, and sometimes, I need to see the bigger picture. So you tell me, where is the bigger picture, I'm missing. What value is he bringing to this team right now.

You keep talking about all the "hate" but not offering up any love, you're just bashing us.....
That is just not true- I have offered up my opinion on PK many times. I think he got off to a bit of a slow start (maybe due to fitting into a new system/team identity crisis?) but I thought he was really starting to look good until the injury derailed everything. As I posted in another thread, at the time of his injury he was on pace for 20 goals and 31 assists, which is EXACTLY the numbers Weber had last year.

And since the injury he has struggled to get back to where he was before the injury. But is looking better recently, albeit without many results on the score sheet.

As far as big picture- because of the style we want to play, and the ages of the players involved, I still believe the trade is going to be a good one for the franchise for years to come.

That's it.........

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02-08-2017, 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Are you able to watch every NHL game every night all season? You make it sound like that is something easy to do. I have seen a handful of Montreal games each year the past few years, but with that you only get a small sample size and not the full picture.
Of course not- but I do have the Center Ice package and watch a lot of hockey, and I am pretty familiar with the play of most of the top players in the league.

Obviously nothing close to the level of knowledge I have about Preds players, but excluding the injury there is nothing all that surprising (or different) about Subban's play this year vs. the rest of his career.

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02-08-2017, 02:39 PM
  #48
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There was a small stretch were Subban looked like an elite defender, but it was short lived.

I waiting for the dynamic player though, I don't think we've seen that yet.

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02-08-2017, 03:43 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
There was a small stretch were Subban looked like an elite defender, but it was short lived.
.
Well yeah, that tends to happen when you get hurt.

Josi hasn't looked good either, and Ekholm has had some rough stretches as well. The only Dman that has been great all season is Ellis. Oddly enough though you don't here a ton about either player, certainly not like you hear with Subban.

Would I like Subban to play better? Sure I would and I would probably be much less forgiving if I knew he was healthy. We don't even know what the heck was wrong with him, so we don't know if it's something in his head or if he may still be injured.
The thing that grinds my axe is that when the same thing happened to Weber a few years ago pretty much everyone let it slide or at least gave him the benefit of the doubt.

Anyways to the person that asked me earlier about whether I thought it was similar to Forsberg injury and continuing to play, my answer basically is yes that is what I was getting at.

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02-08-2017, 03:51 PM
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I've yet to see so much analysis on an injured Predator before. Anyone who's ever watched him can see he's playing injured and isn't himself. If everything about this was the same except we had gotten an injured Karlsson, this thread won't be here.

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