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Old
02-08-2017, 03:52 PM
  #51
triggrman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
Well yeah, that tends to happen when you get hurt.

Josi hasn't looked good either, and Ekholm has had some rough stretches as well. The only Dman that has been great all season is Ellis. Oddly enough though you don't here a ton about either player, certainly not like you hear with Subban.

Would I like Subban to play better? Sure I would and I would probably be much less forgiving if I knew he was healthy. We don't even know what the heck was wrong with him, so we don't know if it's something in his head or if he may still be injured.
The thing that grinds my axe is that when the same thing happened to Weber a few years ago pretty much everyone let it slide or at least gave him the benefit of the doubt.

Anyways to the person that asked me earlier about whether I thought it was similar to Forsberg injury and continuing to play, my answer basically is yes that is what I was getting at.
You're just speculating he's still hurt. I hope you're right, well, let's say I hope there's a true reason he's been so jekyl and hyde. He started off very slow, he got better, he got hurt he's looked bad at times since his return, maybe he's still injured, we don't know.

Josi or Ekholm had some adjustment issues for sure but both were far shorter lived than Subban's. Josi even though he wasn't producing offensively, I think he still looked good defensively, Josi was also injured but has come back and still looked strong. Ekholm has always had some of these issues, it's just now some of you are noticing them. Example. He's always been terrible when pressured in the corners when he has the puck, always. He turns it over on his wraps more than any of our guys. These are the things that keep him a 2nd pairing defensemen and at no point should he be expected to equal the play of a $9m elite defender. Ellis on the other hand has turned a corner and looks like he might actually become an elite defender.

Weber got the benefit of the doubt because he proved he could carry us, Subban hasn't carried anything for us yet.

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Old
02-08-2017, 03:54 PM
  #52
triggrman
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Originally Posted by Jarnberg View Post
I've yet to see so much analysis on an injured Predator before. Anyone who's ever watched him can see he's playing injured and isn't himself. If everything about this was the same except we had gotten an injured Karlsson, this thread won't be here.
GD.... please stop with this. Yes we would have been this hard on anyone traded for our captain that has played like ****.

He didn't start the season injured, btw....

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Old
02-08-2017, 03:57 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
GD.... please stop with this. Yes we would have been this hard on anyone traded for our captain that has played like ****.

He didn't start the season injured, btw....
No, he didn't start the season injured, but the season opener was his first game after an injury that cost him a big chunk of last season and the off-season.

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02-08-2017, 04:16 PM
  #54
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he injured himself filming the subban sleigh video.it explains why no one knows what the injury was or when it happened

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02-08-2017, 04:18 PM
  #55
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he injured himself filming the subban sleigh video.it explains why no one knows what the injury was or when it happened
You're grasping at straws buddy. It's just sad at this point.

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Old
02-08-2017, 04:32 PM
  #56
Jacques Oeuf
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I noticed he's on pace for 228 shots over an 82 game schedule. His best full seasons in shots were 204 / 205. So he's shooting more than he ever has but not producing as many points. Could it be bad puck luck that could break open at any time? Or teammates need to get used to where his rebounds are going?

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02-08-2017, 04:34 PM
  #57
Armourboy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
GD.... please stop with this. Yes we would have been this hard on anyone traded for our captain that has played like ****.

He didn't start the season injured, btw....
Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
You're just speculating he's still hurt. I hope you're right, well, let's say I hope there's a true reason he's been so jekyl and hyde. He started off very slow, he got better, he got hurt he's looked bad at times since his return, maybe he's still injured, we don't know.

Josi or Ekholm had some adjustment issues for sure but both were far shorter lived than Subban's. Josi even though he wasn't producing offensively, I think he still looked good defensively, Josi was also injured but has come back and still looked strong. Ekholm has always had some of these issues, it's just now some of you are noticing them. Example. He's always been terrible when pressured in the corners when he has the puck, always. He turns it over on his wraps more than any of our guys. These are the things that keep him a 2nd pairing defensemen and at no point should he be expected to equal the play of a $9m elite defender. Ellis on the other hand has turned a corner and looks like he might actually become an elite defender.

Weber got the benefit of the doubt because he proved he could carry us, Subban hasn't carried anything for us yet.

Of course I'm speculating, that about all we can do considering the crap injury report system the NHL is allowed to use. The fact is though he started out meh and got better, right up until he got hurt. He has really shown that play since, which leads me to believe if he hasn't started getting better yet then something is up. Yeah sure guys bounce up and down over the course of a season, but a guy doesn't get that kind of money from any team if he is just meh 75% of the time. It's the reason I think something is up.

I don't know, I don't think Josi has looked that good for most of the season, including before he got injured. Offensively he has been way off, but even defensively he has seemed like a deer in headlights at times. Maybe that's because of all of the partner flopping, but I think he has been solidly average at best for most of the year. The telling thing for me though is that when he does screw up, most people just let it roll right off.

Weber got the benefit of the doubt because we drafted him and he was our guy. Josi is in the same boat currently, people brush off his rough play because of reasons. Frankly I've been more disappointed in him than I have Subban, but then I wasn't expecting some super mega defenseman either. I assumed most of it was just hype. Odd than now I'm one of the one's arguing it's ok and it will be alright.


As for the first, he didn't start injured, but he was coming off an injury. He also was playing with a new team, a new coach, new players, and a new system. I think that's more than enough reason to have a slow start.

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Old
02-08-2017, 04:40 PM
  #58
Armourboy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacques Oeuf View Post
I noticed he's on pace for 228 shots over an 82 game schedule. His best full seasons in shots were 204 / 205. So he's shooting more than he ever has but not producing as many points. Could it be bad puck luck that could break open at any time? Or teammates need to get used to where his rebounds are going?
Some of it is the system, when in doubt shoot. Also keep in mind, we haven't really had that guy that just stands in there to get those gritty type goals that come off rebounds. In all honesty we haven't had that since Hornquist got moved to Pittsburgh.

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02-08-2017, 04:40 PM
  #59
Drake744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
Of course I'm speculating, that about all we can do considering the crap injury report system the NHL is allowed to use. The fact is though he started out meh and got better, right up until he got hurt. He has really shown that play since, which leads me to believe if he hasn't started getting better yet then something is up. Yeah sure guys bounce up and down over the course of a season, but a guy doesn't get that kind of money from any team if he is just meh 75% of the time. It's the reason I think something is up.

I don't know, I don't think Josi has looked that good for most of the season, including before he got injured. Offensively he has been way off, but even defensively he has seemed like a deer in headlights at times. Maybe that's because of all of the partner flopping, but I think he has been solidly average at best for most of the year. The telling thing for me though is that when he does screw up, most people just let it roll right off.

Weber got the benefit of the doubt because we drafted him and he was our guy. Josi is in the same boat currently, people brush off his rough play because of reasons. Frankly I've been more disappointed in him than I have Subban, but then I wasn't expecting some super mega defenseman either. I assumed most of it was just hype. Odd than now I'm one of the one's arguing it's ok and it will be alright.


As for the first, he didn't start injured, but he was coming off an injury. He also was playing with a new team, a new coach, new players, and a new system. I think that's more than enough reason to have a slow start.
Classic case of where there's smoke there's fire. If people like the guy they're saying he's dealing with an injury. If they're not a big fan they'll say he's disappointing and is playing poorly.

The luckiest guy on the team is Josi because his crappy play for most of the season is being 98% overlooked because of the Subban hysteria. Case can be made that he's actually our most disappointing guy this year. On D at least

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Old
02-08-2017, 04:44 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
Classic case of where there's smoke there's fire. If people like the guy they're saying he's dealing with an injury. If they're not a big fan they'll say he's disappointing and is playing poorly.

The luckiest guy on the team is Josi because his crappy play for most of the season is being 98% overlooked because of the Subban hysteria. Case can be made that he's actually our most disappointing guy this year. On D at least
100% agree regarding Josi. It's a good thing Ellis decided to step up in a big way this year.

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02-08-2017, 04:47 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
Classic case of where there's smoke there's fire. If people like the guy they're saying he's dealing with an injury. If they're not a big fan they'll say he's disappointing and is playing poorly.

The luckiest guy on the team is Josi because his crappy play for most of the season is being 98% overlooked because of the Subban hysteria. Case can be made that he's actually our most disappointing guy this year. On D at least
I think there is no doubt Josi misses Weber more than anyone. I knew there was a chance it would happen, just kind of hoped it wouldn't. I don't think he's been down right bad, but I expected now that he was given the opportunity to be that guy that he would step up and show that it wasn't just cause he had Weber over there. Hasn't been the case, and yes for me, his play has been the most disappointing on the team. You could make an argument for Smith as well, maybe he's just been so bad that you try and forget it all together

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02-08-2017, 04:50 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
100% agree regarding Josi. It's a good thing Ellis decided to step up in a big way this year.
As well as Irwin. Funny to say, but that guy has to be the most unlikely guy to be an ass saver in the entire league. It may be one of those one year things, and I'm not saying fans are wrong that had him on other teams, but he has found something this year.

With Ellis to me it feels more like they finally gave him the chance to be who he could be. We look at this season, but tbh since they asked him to take a larger share of minutes last season, he has gotten better and better.

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Old
02-08-2017, 06:45 PM
  #63
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From today's Tennessean:

Quote:
ďItís frustrating at times because thereís times where maybe mentally I want to do certain things, but Iím not able to execute them," Subban said. "Itís not easy when you miss 16 games, especially the way I play. Iím not the type of guy that just sits back. A lot of times, I like to attack the game and create and generate offense from the back end. Just trying to get back into the groove of that.

"Individually, I still think that thereís a couple more levels to my game that I can definitely step up to."
Sounds like what some have been saying--good that he acknowledges he hasn't played tomporential and that the injury has hampered him

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Old
02-08-2017, 06:46 PM
  #64
triggrman
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Agreed on Ellis, disagree on Josi other than the stats, offensively he is a bit behind, not defensively though.

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Old
02-09-2017, 04:49 PM
  #65
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Weber has more penalty minutes than PK this year. Weber took plenty of penalties, weber was not a lidstrom. Weber slammed zetterbergs face in the glass in the P.O.'s after the game was over. Nothing happened from that but dont act like he didnt take dumb penalties too...
Weber has 3 more in PIMs in 18 more games. Subban draws a lot more per game. I still think this trade is going to play out to Nashville's advantage over the long run, but let's not draw misleading comparisons.

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02-09-2017, 04:58 PM
  #66
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Which means nothing to me. These advanced stats seem to lie or hide the truth sometimes.
There are lies, damn lies, and Corsi

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Old
02-09-2017, 05:30 PM
  #67
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Weber has 3 more in PIMs in 18 more games. Subban draws a lot more per game. I still think this trade is going to play out to Nashville's advantage over the long run, but let's not draw misleading comparisons.
an excellent point mwver, the fact both pro and con subban people tend to throw out half true type facts doesn't help either groups arguments;

here are three things that have bothered me reading as well;

1)..while weber has taken 16 minors this year, and subban only 11, weber has played in 18 more games as well, so basically they are taking minor penalties at pretty much the same rate. and generally have in the past as well.

2).. stat guys, especially MTL kids like to throw in the how well Subban is 'driving possession' for the preds based on corsi/fenwick numbers. without mentioning the fact that team corsi/fenwick numbers are in reality down significantly from last year and year before last without Subban. so how much is he really 'driving' possession?

3)the argument that we are pretty much the same as this time last year is sort of disingenuous as well, when we all know what a disappointment we were at this time last year when half the board was demanding Lavy be fired and the team blown up at about this point. if we are gonna use this type comparison we probably need to wait until year end

now again, I wouldn't trade subban back for weber at this point. that ship has sailed and we've gotten younger and hopefully it helps us in the future now. maybe tonight is the night he starts making things happen.

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02-09-2017, 06:53 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Pred303 View Post
an excellent point mwver, the fact both pro and con subban people tend to throw out half true type facts doesn't help either groups arguments;

here are three things that have bothered me reading as well;

1)..while weber has taken 16 minors this year, and subban only 11, weber has played in 18 more games as well, so basically they are taking minor penalties at pretty much the same rate. and generally have in the past as well.

2).. stat guys, especially MTL kids like to throw in the how well Subban is 'driving possession' for the preds based on corsi/fenwick numbers. without mentioning the fact that team corsi/fenwick numbers are in reality down significantly from last year and year before last without Subban. so how much is he really 'driving' possession?

3)the argument that we are pretty much the same as this time last year is sort of disingenuous as well, when we all know what a disappointment we were at this time last year when half the board was demanding Lavy be fired and the team blown up at about this point. if we are gonna use this type comparison we probably need to wait until year end
About our possession stats, do you have those numbers??? I could have sworn I read that we are in the top 10 (or maybe even higher) in the league. But I may be crazy.....

And I disagree with you on the comparisons to last year. Doesn't really matter if we were disappointing or not- the results are the results. We are disappointing this year, too.

Not to mention the fact that last year we were a completely healthy team AND had Weber. Therefore I think the comparisons are valid....

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02-09-2017, 09:19 PM
  #69
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About our possession stats, do you have those numbers??? I could have sworn I read that we are in the top 10 (or maybe even higher) in the league. But I may be crazy.......
of course or I wouldn't have said it.

this year for example we are 12th in corsi close. last year we were 7th, year before last we were 7th.

in overall 5 on 5 both corsi, and fenwick we are below each of the past two years as well, when we actually finished near the top of the league

I will quote the percentages tomorrow on those for you tomorrow, you can find the corsi close right here on nhl.com advanced stat site.

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02-09-2017, 09:37 PM
  #70
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of course or I wouldn't have said it.

this year for example we are 12th in corsi close. last year we were 7th, year before last we were 7th.

in overall 5 on 5 both corsi, and fenwick we are below each of the past two years as well, when we actually finished near the top of the league

I will quote the percentages tomorrow on those for you tomorrow, you can find the corsi close right here on nhl.com advanced stat site.
I wasn't doubting you, just curious to see the actual numbers.....

But I will say those don't appear to be huge differences, and again, we have been decimated with injuries to some of the key players who would drive those numbers up. Our top 4 D have only played together 23 out of 53 games going into tonight....

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Old
02-09-2017, 10:29 PM
  #71
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Subban has been playing better lately than are the beginning of the season and has been solid but imo hasn't lived up to the hype as an elite game changer. Hopefully this year is just an off year. Either way he doesn't seem to be hurting us at the moment and we are still doing better than we were last year at this time so overall the trade was fine. As long as we make the playoffs I'm fine. If we somehow don't then I would probably be singing a different tune.

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Old
02-09-2017, 11:24 PM
  #72
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Ryan Ellis is being overplayed by a lot. He needs to get back with Ekholm. I know Subban hasn't looked exciting and dominating especially for a 9 mill D but he's getting the results you would want.

Here are some basic stats below (not including Bitetto):
GoalsAgainst
Since Jan 1st: Josi (126 mins) 2.80 GA60, Ellis (299 mins) 2.60, Weber (211 mins) 2.35 GA60, Irwin (293 mins) 1.65 GA60, Subban (135 mins) 0.44 GA60, Ekholm (301 mins) 0.40 GA60.

CorsiAgainst
Since Jan 1st: Josi (126 mins) 63 CA60, Ellis (299 mins) 62 CA60, Weber (211 mins) 65 CA60, Irwin (293 mins) 56 CA60, Ekholm (301 mins) 52 CA60, Subban (135 mins) 48 CA60

Don't put any significant weight into these stats for such a sample size but it's just there to show he's not 'costing games' and he's producing net positive results. We just need to split Ellis back with Ekholm and Josi with Subban.

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02-09-2017, 11:27 PM
  #73
LeafingTheWay
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I say this all the time on the Leafs board but here:

Analytics should be only used to see how a player is doing in their usage. NOT to be used for seeing how good a player is. If we look at Ellis's stats before this year, we would say "Oh look he's fantastic, he can handle harder usage". If we look at Ellis's stats this year, we would say "Oh no, he needs to get not as hard usage as is right now".

In an ideal world, you would play around with everyone's usage till all the D produce net positive results. Right now the problem is the usage is not being divided among the D properly and it's causing D-men like Ellis to produce net-negative results (even though he's played good).

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Old
02-10-2017, 06:12 AM
  #74
Roman Yoshi
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This is still going on?

Here are my last thoughts on PK until the end of the season. He isn't bad, he isn't wonderful. He just is what he is, which is a very good hockey player who makes a lot of bone headed plays in his own end. Sometimes, he is too flashy for his own good or calls for the puck too often. Sometimes, all that fancy pants stuff works out and is amazing. He is a true talent. Just wish there was more consistency to his game.

On a different yet related note: people point to Subbans CF and "driving possession numbers" from last year. Who the hell else was going to do it for Montreal? Literally, no one. The difference is, here, we have defensemen who drive possesssion, which is why their numbers have suffered since Subban came. Too much of a good thing.

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Old
02-10-2017, 07:17 AM
  #75
bdub24
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I didn't think the trade was for a 'win now' scenario. Always thought it was about a horrible contract we signed because of the Flyers and a chance to get a little younger and faster and offensive on the back end. I'll see you guys in 3 years. For me, at the end of year 3 is more of the tell on whether this trade was a win or not.

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