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Winnipeg Jets Prospects Thread 2016-17 Part III

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Old
02-21-2017, 05:08 PM
  #101
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People hate it when they are wrong

I think if he wasn't injured we would be seeing the progression that they envisioned him making when the drafted him.
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Originally Posted by ruffus23 View Post
Stanley was progressing nicely. I think last portion of the season and memorial cup run we would have seen serious progression.
As I pointed out earlier this year, Stanley's progression was about average (sliiiiightly below) for the player that scores like he did in his draft year.

http://jetsnation.ca/2016/12/2/by-th...-logan-stanley

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02-21-2017, 06:18 PM
  #102
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As I pointed out earlier this year, Stanley's progression was about average (sliiiiightly below) for the player that scores like he did in his draft year.

http://jetsnation.ca/2016/12/2/by-th...-logan-stanley
I believe his scoring curve has increased as season progressed. Second half he was showing larger progression. The big guy takes a little longer to get going.

Anyway to break down stats based on portion of seasons? say D+0-.5 and D+.5-1 or playoff specific?

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02-22-2017, 11:28 AM
  #103
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Season ending knee surgery when you're 18 and 6'7... I don't think it matters what his numbers are anymore, he's not making the NHL.

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02-22-2017, 11:58 AM
  #104
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Season ending knee surgery when you're 18 and 6'7... I don't think it matters what his numbers are anymore, he's not making the NHL.
Maybe in the 80s and 90s, but surgical repair and rehab is much better now.

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02-22-2017, 11:59 AM
  #105
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Season ending knee surgery when you're 18 and 6'7... I don't think it matters what his numbers are anymore, he's not making the NHL.
It's was a meniscus not a acl type injury.... It is not good news for a player but it will not be the reason he does or does not make the NHL ... IMO

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02-22-2017, 12:00 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by yukonfloyd View Post
Season ending knee surgery when you're 18 and 6'7... I don't think it matters what his numbers are anymore, he's not making the NHL.
I'm sure he'll get his fair share of NHL games with the Jets, even if he's bad.

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02-22-2017, 12:01 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by ruffus23 View Post
I believe his scoring curve has increased as season progressed. Second half he was showing larger progression. The big guy takes a little longer to get going.

Anyway to break down stats based on portion of seasons? say D+0-.5 and D+.5-1 or playoff specific?
I compared his numbers to Myers for fun... And I think he was a little ahead of Myers pace this year

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02-22-2017, 12:16 PM
  #108
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It's was a meniscus not a acl type injury.... It is not good news for a player but it will not be the reason he does or does not make the NHL ... IMO
It's the lost development time that's the biggest factor. He's a project and needs all the development time he can get. The injury hurts him a lot more than a more polished player.

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02-22-2017, 12:47 PM
  #109
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There's a number of notifications ridiculous players posted below Stanley in that ranking


Hell, having him above Logan brown is pretty frigging wild. Odd to say the least.

I just don't know how a guy rises like that after only playing less then half a season in which he improved at an average rate.

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02-22-2017, 12:47 PM
  #110
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I compared his numbers to Myers for fun... And I think he was a little ahead of Myers pace this year
Below though if you adjust for age, era, and team.

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02-22-2017, 12:51 PM
  #111
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It's the lost development time that's the biggest factor. He's a project and needs all the development time he can get. The injury hurts him a lot more than a more polished player.
He's still 3 or 4 years away, anyway. His development will depend mainly on his work ethic and drive to improve. It would be nice if he could get back in time for the Memorial Cup, but that seems doubtful, and even if he was healthy it would be tough for him to be effective after that much time off.

He needs to have an excellent off-season of training, with lots of involvement of the Jets' development staff. Then he needs to have a very strong final junior season next year, before turning pro with the Moose in 2018.

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02-22-2017, 01:28 PM
  #112
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I compared his numbers to Myers for fun... And I think he was a little ahead of Myers pace this year
Similar in draft years. Myers was well ahead in D+1.

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02-22-2017, 01:41 PM
  #113
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How about 'knee surgery when you're 18 and 6'7 and need to significantly improve your skating and hockey sense...'

Is that better?

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02-22-2017, 02:31 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by yukonfloyd View Post
How about 'knee surgery when you're 18 and 6'7 and need to significantly improve your skating and hockey sense...'

Is that better?
Meh. It takes about 4 months out. They train 10-11 months a year. He'll have plenty of development time over the next 4 years to build up his strength and skating.

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02-22-2017, 02:51 PM
  #115
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To think that we could have come out of this draft with 2 of Rubstov, Clague and Girard. Imagine following Clague or Girard's season with hopes of them stepping in with the Jets in a couple of years,

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02-22-2017, 03:04 PM
  #116
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Meh. It takes about 4 months out. They train 10-11 months a year. He'll have plenty of development time over the next 4 years to build up his strength and skating.
He already has meniscus trouble. I'm no expert but that suggests to me that he will soon have bone on bone trouble. That will certainly shorten a hockey career. If someone is knowledgeable feel free to correct me. At 18 years old I can't see this being a minor issue. 10-15 years from now we will be hearing how a promising career was cut short by injury.

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02-22-2017, 03:51 PM
  #117
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He already has meniscus trouble. I'm no expert but that suggests to me that he will soon have bone on bone trouble. That will certainly shorten a hockey career. If someone is knowledgeable feel free to correct me. At 18 years old I can't see this being a minor issue. 10-15 years from now we will be hearing how a promising career was cut short by injury.
There have been substantial improvements in the management of meniscus tears over the past few decades. Many collateral ligament tears involve some damage to the meniscus (medial or lateral). I'm not sure whether Stanley had a medial or lateral meniscus injury (lateral are more uncommon).

In the past, they tended to remove a damaged meniscus (or trim it substantially), whereas they usually repair a torn meniscus now to preserve the joint surface protection. It will probably affect Stanley when he's older, but it's unlikely he'll have substantial cartilage degeneration for quite some time. It might cut his career a bit short if the damage is extensive, but that's not a given.

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02-22-2017, 03:57 PM
  #118
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To think that we could have come out of this draft with 2 of Rubstov, Clague and Girard. Imagine following Clague or Girard's season with hopes of them stepping in with the Jets in a couple of years,
That would be fun (though I highly doubt that either would step in as fast as Morrissey).

But how would the Jets have gotten all three of those prospects with picks #22, #36 and #97?

Those three were picked at #22, #47 and #51.

Could have had Rubstov and one of the D, or both D, but not all three.

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02-22-2017, 04:36 PM
  #119
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Thinking about drafting and developing defensemen, I wonder a bit about the LA Kings apparent success.

They have made a habit of drafting big, low-scoring defensemen, but have also converted some of them into effective NHLers...

Muzzin
Martinez
Forbort

If anything, they've put more emphasis on size (and low scoring) than the Jets. Maybe it's just a much longer development process that's playing itself out with the Kings' D. Most of them took several years after being drafted before really coming into their own at the pro level.

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02-22-2017, 05:30 PM
  #120
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There have been substantial improvements in the management of meniscus tears over the past few decades. Many collateral ligament tears involve some damage to the meniscus (medial or lateral). I'm not sure whether Stanley had a medial or lateral meniscus injury (lateral are more uncommon).

In the past, they tended to remove a damaged meniscus (or trim it substantially), whereas they usually repair a torn meniscus now to preserve the joint surface protection. It will probably affect Stanley when he's older, but it's unlikely he'll have substantial cartilage degeneration for quite some time. It might cut his career a bit short if the damage is extensive, but that's not a given.
OK, good information. So maybe it is not as serious as it would have been a few years ago. Or maybe it is, depending on specifics that we don't know. I'm also assuming the long recovery period is ominous but that probably falls into the same category. The devil is in the details, as usual.

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02-22-2017, 05:40 PM
  #121
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To think that we could have come out of this draft with 2 of Rubstov, Clague and Girard. Imagine following Clague or Girard's season with hopes of them stepping in with the Jets in a couple of years,
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That would be fun (though I highly doubt that either would step in as fast as Morrissey).

But how would the Jets have gotten all three of those prospects with picks #22, #36 and #97?

Those three were picked at #22, #47 and #51.

Could have had Rubstov and one of the D, or both D, but not all three.
See the bolded above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Thinking about drafting and developing defensemen, I wonder a bit about the LA Kings apparent success.

They have made a habit of drafting big, low-scoring defensemen, but have also converted some of them into effective NHLers...

Muzzin
Martinez
Forbort

If anything, they've put more emphasis on size (and low scoring) than the Jets. Maybe it's just a much longer development process that's playing itself out with the Kings' D. Most of them took several years after being drafted before really coming into their own at the pro level.
None of them is all that big. Muzzin is 6'3, Martinez 6'1, both 210+. Forbort is 6'4 but hasn't really arrived and proven much yet.

Martinez scored pretty well at the time of his draft. Muzzin started scoring well into his NHL career. I don't see a pattern here. Certainly not one that speaks to Stanley at 6'7.

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02-22-2017, 06:49 PM
  #122
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It's was a meniscus not a acl type injury.... It is not good news for a player but it will not be the reason he does or does not make the NHL ... IMO
ACL isn't super serious after repair either. Patella tendon and PCL are the ones which tend to cause the most issues in the long term.

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02-22-2017, 07:52 PM
  #123
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See the bolded above.



None of them is all that big. Muzzin is 6'3, Martinez 6'1, both 210+. Forbort is 6'4 but hasn't really arrived and proven much yet.

Martinez scored pretty well at the time of his draft. Muzzin started scoring well into his NHL career. I don't see a pattern here. Certainly not one that speaks to Stanley at 6'7.
Many of the Kings D were vet low scoring in their draft year, and they tend to be big.

Being 6'7" isn't a penalty, it's a lack of scoring, which is a characteristic that Stanley and a number of Jets drafted D share with a number of current Kings' D. They appear to have figured out how to develop and/or use those types of D.

Ooops... missed the two out of 3. Would have loved Rubtsov. Clague looks like a poor man's Morrissey without the same competitiveness. Girard's a fun player, for sure.

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02-22-2017, 09:18 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
He already has meniscus trouble. I'm no expert but that suggests to me that he will soon have bone on bone trouble. That will certainly shorten a hockey career. If someone is knowledgeable feel free to correct me. At 18 years old I can't see this being a minor issue. 10-15 years from now we will be hearing how a promising career was cut short by injury.
Lots of NFL linebackers recover from meniscus. No concerns.

Islander fans aren't whining about barzal who had meniscus tear prior to draft. But isles fans are pretty tough, not one complaint about that Ladd contract.

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02-22-2017, 10:17 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Thinking about drafting and developing defensemen, I wonder a bit about the LA Kings apparent success.

They have made a habit of drafting big, low-scoring defensemen, but have also converted some of them into effective NHLers...

Muzzin
Martinez
Forbort

If anything, they've put more emphasis on size (and low scoring) than the Jets. Maybe it's just a much longer development process that's playing itself out with the Kings' D. Most of them took several years after being drafted before really coming into their own at the pro level.
Pens drafted Muzzin. And I wouldn't say Martinez and Fobort were that low scoring in the years they were drafted. Martinez was over 0.5 P/GP in the NCAA (as a 20 year old when LA drafted him). Fobort was over 0.5 P/GP for the USNTDP. That's decent scoring for a defenseman. Stanley was just over 0.25 P/GP last year...but almost up to 0.5 this year.

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