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Drew Stafford to Boston for a Conditional 6th Rounder (2018)

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Old
03-18-2017, 02:01 AM
  #251
tbcwpg
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Originally Posted by peg View Post
Maybe this................

Jamie Benn, Round 5


NHL clubs still kick themselves for missing out on Benn. He currently stands third among his draft class in career points, behind only first overall pick Patrick Kane and seventh overall pick Jakub Voracek. The Dallas Stars' captain went 129th in 2007 and continues to rip up the league. This season, he's an Art Ross Trophy winner, and was a Ted Lindsay Award finalist.
Zetterberg and Alfredsson were 6th round picks - sure, Benn was a great pick in the 2007 5th round, but the 6th round in 2007 produced more NHL regulars (Scott Darling, Patrick Maroon, Nick Bonino) than the 5th (Benn and Muzzin).

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03-18-2017, 10:09 AM
  #252
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Originally Posted by tbcwpg View Post
Zetterberg and Alfredsson were 6th round picks - sure, Benn was a great pick in the 2007 5th round, but the 6th round in 2007 produced more NHL regulars (Scott Darling, Patrick Maroon, Nick Bonino) than the 5th (Benn and Muzzin).
I'm just seeing the higher picks as better for trading

Philadelphia's 3rd in 2016 was used for the Logan Stanley pick (i think our 22 and 36 for their 18 and 79?) so am hoping that Boston's 5th or maybe even 4th if it works out in 2018 could help with a good deal if needed.

Not much to be excited for so i'll take when I can get. 4th round > 5th round > 6th round

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03-18-2017, 12:59 PM
  #253
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I'm just seeing the higher picks as better for trading

Philadelphia's 3rd in 2016 was used for the Logan Stanley pick (i think our 22 and 36 for their 18 and 79?) so am hoping that Boston's 5th or maybe even 4th if it works out in 2018 could help with a good deal if needed.

Not much to be excited for so i'll take when I can get. 4th round > 5th round > 6th round
If we get the fourth, I would be totally fine trading back for a 5th and 6th

The difference in value from 4th round to these rounds is so small you more then make up for it with the additional lottery ticket.

Same goes for a fifth. Almost no difference between in probability of success between round five six and seven


He higher the pick we can get the more of those lottery tickets we can flip it for, OR added "fake" value to move up somewhere else/bring something new in.

4th round picks don't seem to be seen as the "dollar lottery" tickets they are, which is an advantage one could exploit

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03-18-2017, 02:38 PM
  #254
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If we get the fourth, I would be totally fine trading back for a 5th and 6th

The difference in value from 4th round to these rounds is so small you more then make up for it with the additional lottery ticket.

Same goes for a fifth. Almost no difference between in probability of success between round five six and seven


He higher the pick we can get the more of those lottery tickets we can flip it for, OR added "fake" value to move up somewhere else/bring something new in.

4th round picks don't seem to be seen as the "dollar lottery" tickets they are, which is an advantage one could exploit
I stand by 4th > 5th > 6th
but you're saying that a 5th AND 6th > 4th (in most cases)?
I'd agree with that.

What do you mean 'dollar lottery' tickets?

I honestly thought we'd get nothing for Stafford so am rooting for any advantage.

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03-18-2017, 02:42 PM
  #255
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If we get the fourth, I would be totally fine trading back for a 5th and 6th

The difference in value from 4th round to these rounds is so small you more then make up for it with the additional lottery ticket.

Same goes for a fifth. Almost no difference between in probability of success between round five six and seven


He higher the pick we can get the more of those lottery tickets we can flip it for, OR added "fake" value to move up somewhere else/bring something new in.

4th round picks don't seem to be seen as the "dollar lottery" tickets they are, which is an advantage one could exploit
We have 4th, 5th, 6th, two 7ths + whatever Stafford turns into. I would happily trade all 6 of those picks to LV for their '18 2nd (34 OA).

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03-18-2017, 09:06 PM
  #256
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We have 4th, 5th, 6th, two 7ths + whatever Stafford turns into. I would happily trade all 6 of those picks to LV for their '18 2nd (34 OA).
Then you're giving Chevy one swing of the bat to hit a home run. His slugging percentage after the first inning is pretty low. Better to give him 6 cracks at getting a single.

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03-18-2017, 09:22 PM
  #257
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Fairly certain the aggregate value of the 6 additional picks is worth more then 34 over all.

You'd need to have a real good handle on the guy you were taking at 34 to do that IMO

Knowing what I know about prospect probabilities not I'll take the six picks and smarter selections as opposed to the one higher pick

I just realized this doesn't include a 3rd. That might be easier to get behind....But still...

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03-18-2017, 11:39 PM
  #258
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Then you're giving Chevy one swing of the bat to hit a home run. His slugging percentage after the first inning is pretty low. Better to give him 6 cracks at getting a single.
Nope. I'll take a single in the 2nd over 6 almost guaranteed strike-outs in the later innings. That 34th OA pick not only has a much higher chance of success but also has a higher probable ceiling. Occasionally a good player is found in those late rounds but not often enough to get 1 in 6. I don't have numbers but I suspect the late round hits are becoming even more rare as scouting gets better. For example a lot of late round hits came from Europe a few years ago but Europe is being more heavily scouted now.

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03-19-2017, 11:35 AM
  #259
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Glad to see Mrs Stafford co-operating and giving birth while the Bruins were on a two day break (no game missed)


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03-19-2017, 11:41 AM
  #260
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She's a team player for sure.

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03-19-2017, 11:43 AM
  #261
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Glad to see Mrs Stafford co-operating and giving birth while the Bruins were on a two day break (no game missed)

Not saying she did this, but she could have had help.

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03-19-2017, 12:40 PM
  #262
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Not saying she did this, but she could have had help.
You think Chevy had Don Percy call her up and give her the "growl"?

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03-19-2017, 12:51 PM
  #263
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Glad to see Mrs Stafford co-operating and giving birth while the Bruins were on a two day break (no game missed)

lol awesome

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03-19-2017, 01:04 PM
  #264
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Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Nope. I'll take a single in the 2nd over 6 almost guaranteed strike-outs in the later innings. That 34th OA pick not only has a much higher chance of success but also has a higher probable ceiling. Occasionally a good player is found in those late rounds but not often enough to get 1 in 6. I don't have numbers but I suspect the late round hits are becoming even more rare as scouting gets better. For example a lot of late round hits came from Europe a few years ago but Europe is being more heavily scouted now.
Nope, characterizing 3rd & lower as almost guaranteed strike-outs is just so wrong. Seriously, would you rather they take a chance on one D-man in the 2nd, or 6 in the 3rd through 7th -- I'll take the latter any day. Maybe the chances of 3rd & lower aren't better than 1 in 6, but whats your chances with a high second? Say its 33% with that high second, you've just bettered your chances with the latter picks by 3x

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03-19-2017, 01:04 PM
  #265
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Glad to see Mrs Stafford co-operating and giving birth while the Bruins were on a two day break (no game missed)

Congratulations to both of them.

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03-19-2017, 01:11 PM
  #266
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03-19-2017, 01:40 PM
  #267
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lol Certainly you aren't suggesting that a 5th or 6th round is more likely to net a career NHLer than a 4th round due to 0.01 or 0.02 % increase - which defies logic (maybe GMs take more risks in the 4th round forwards or 2nd / 5th round defence ? aiming for high risk / high reward type players? scouting is broken?)

Though this does make it clear that historically, the difference between 4th and 6th is almost negligible.

Hopefully we still get the 4th and can flip it for more picks in that range (or helps us move up / make a trade that is advantageous) as I think that is where the real value lies in the higher pick.

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03-19-2017, 01:56 PM
  #268
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Nope, characterizing 3rd & lower as almost guaranteed strike-outs is just so wrong. Seriously, would you rather they take a chance on one D-man in the 2nd, or 6 in the 3rd through 7th -- I'll take the latter any day. Maybe the chances of 3rd & lower aren't better than 1 in 6, but whats your chances with a high second? Say its 33% with that high second, you've just bettered your chances with the latter picks by 3x
I didn't start at the 3rd. I started with the 4th round. 6 in the 4th through 7th will usually produce none. The few produced in those rounds may get over the standard 200 game barrier but how many of them make 500 games? Take a look at some of the players who do manage to exceed 500 games, just for context. I give you Thor, 739 games & Stuart, 662 games.

From pick 1 to pick 90 the success rate drops a long way but that range includes most of the picks who make it. From the 4th to the 7th round the rate doesn't drop nearly as steeply or as much. It can't considering how low pick 90 already is. In future the 4th round will start with pick 94 FWIW.

As I said earlier I think you will find that late round gems become even more rare than they have been in the past as teams up their scouting efforts. There are fewer chances for good players to go unnoticed, first in the US and now also in Europe. I prefer a pick when there are still known good players on the board to picks when you are just hoping to get lucky with a late blooming, not known good player. We'll see.

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03-19-2017, 02:47 PM
  #269
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lol Certainly you aren't suggesting that a 5th or 6th round is more likely to net a career NHLer than a 4th round due to 0.01 or 0.02 % increase - which defies logic (maybe GMs take more risks in the 4th round forwards or 2nd / 5th round defence ? aiming for high risk / high reward type players? scouting is broken?)

Though this does make it clear that historically, the difference between 4th and 6th is almost negligible.

Hopefully we still get the 4th and can flip it for more picks in that range (or helps us move up / make a trade that is advantageous) as I think that is where the real value lies in the higher pick.
I only suggest what you see me explicitly suggest.

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Old
03-20-2017, 07:25 PM
  #270
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Stafford 8/9 so far - 89%

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03-21-2017, 09:51 AM
  #271
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Stafford 8/9 so far - 89%
2 of the next 10 and I believe the requirement is met. No?

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03-21-2017, 10:46 AM
  #272
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2 of the next 10 and I believe the requirement is met. No?
It was reported he had to play 50% of reg season and playoff games. Not sure exactly what that means and how that applies without seeing the fine print.

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03-21-2017, 04:31 PM
  #273
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It was reported he had to play 50% of reg season and playoff games. Not sure exactly what that means and how that applies without seeing the fine print.
I thought it was 50% (assumed regular season) + make play-offs for 5th. Win a round for 4th. Maybe the 4th would require playing 50% of the games in round 1?

We probably don't find out for sure until the draft. It seems conditional terms are always a little vague as released.

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03-21-2017, 05:45 PM
  #274
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I thought it was 50% (assumed regular season) + make play-offs for 5th. Win a round for 4th. Maybe the 4th would require playing 50% of the games in round 1?

We probably don't find out for sure until the draft. It seems conditional terms are always a little vague as released.
Custance says reg season and playoffs and win a round in this tweet.

Does that mean if the bruins play 9 playoff games and Stafford dresses in only 4 of them that it doesn't move up? Or do they just get added to the 19 reg season games in which case 14GP would be 50%? That's the part that's not clear.


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03-21-2017, 06:44 PM
  #275
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Custance says reg season and playoffs and win a round in this tweet.

Does that mean if the bruins play 9 playoff games and Stafford dresses in only 4 of them that it doesn't move up? Or do they just get added to the 19 reg season games in which case 14GP would be 50%? That's the part that's not clear.

I understood it to meant that he has to play 50% of all reg. season games and 50% of all playoff games and they get past the first round.

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