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Roster speculation 16-17 part 3

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Old
03-03-2017, 06:03 AM
  #51
McPhatty00
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Jack has to get ROR money. Reinhart is a 5 mil guy. If only Ennis can find his way or GMTM can find a buyer. That leaves Moulson's albatross of a salary. Maybe he can get McPhee to take him for a draft pick. I'd give LV a 2nd to take Moulson.

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03-03-2017, 07:04 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McPhatty00 View Post
Jack has to get ROR money. Reinhart is a 5 mil guy. If only Ennis can find his way or GMTM can find a buyer. That leaves Moulson's albatross of a salary. Maybe he can get McPhee to take him for a draft pick. I'd give LV a 2nd to take Moulson.
If I was LV, I would want more than a 2nd to take that contract on.

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03-03-2017, 07:15 AM
  #53
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Reinhart would be lucky to get 5 mil. I wouldn't put it past him to look for a short-term deal so he can raise his value. He is purely complimentary and not a driver. Those don't get top dollar.

Kane gets overpaid for what he's probably worth because he's looked at as a driver for the lines he plays on, even though under Bylsma I don't see him this way anymore.



Ennis still shows signs of life. I have a hard time thinking he isn't LV's automatic target. What other players are they going to be able to draft that have played 1C before? If Murray is smart he tries to prop his value before the season ends and then trades him to a team like Carolina who is struggling to retain all their D. If you can do that, it comes down to getting LV to take Moulson over Bogosian or ... Justin Kea? Every team has an Ullmark equivalent, I wouldn't worry there.


Last edited by makeitburn: 03-03-2017 at 07:27 AM.
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03-03-2017, 07:23 AM
  #54
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"Reinhart is not a driver" might be the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

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03-03-2017, 07:30 AM
  #55
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Guy who's production is largely based around standing in front of the net for tips isn't a driver.

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03-03-2017, 07:31 AM
  #56
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Among forwards on this roster, Reinhart ranks (all numbers from corsica, on-ice, zone/score/venue adjusted, per 60 minutes):

1st in total shot attempts
1st in unblocked shot attempts
3rd in shots
1st in scoring chances
1st in expected goals

And let's just ignore the fact that for the 2nd straight year, the best Sabres line is always the one Reinhart is on. Totally a coincidence. Must be. He's a passenger.

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03-03-2017, 07:52 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McPhatty00 View Post
Jack has to get ROR money. Reinhart is a 5 mil guy. If only Ennis can find his way or GMTM can find a buyer. That leaves Moulson's albatross of a salary. Maybe he can get McPhee to take him for a draft pick. I'd give LV a 2nd to take Moulson.

Moulson could also say 17/18 will be his last year and retire after the season...thus his conteract will come off.
What if he said---Ill retire in 2018 if you protect me in the draft???



Quote:
Originally Posted by Top Pair Imposter View Post
I don't understand the idea that fitting Kane can't work financially. Winning teams find ways to keep good players and work them in the cap. Sure, you get Blackhawks moves after cups, but that isn't really the same thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Top Pair Imposter View Post
Ennis' contract expires at the end of next year. He's off the books for the first year of the new Reinhart/Eichel deals, while Moulson has one left. After he's gone, it's time to re-sign McCabe. Bogosian is gash but unless someone is dumb enough to take him he'll still be around.

Anticipation of a rising cap is really all the room needed.

2018-2019

ROR 7.5
KO 6
EK 6.5
JE 8
SR 7
YW 2.5
MM 5

Budget ~11 for the other 6 forwards, that's 53m of an ~80m cap

RR 5.4
ZB 5.1
JM 1.6

Split 9.9m between the other 4 d and that's 22m on d.

5m left over for goalies.


Cheap labor is key here but ELC and cheap RFAs are the light anyway
Ennis and Moulson contracts go to 2019....Reinhart and Eichel are due in 2018.

what do you think the cap will be in 2018----say $75M

remember Buffalo has Hodgson dead space on the cap--in 18/19 its actua;lly a negative $450K which helps some, then after that its $800K for 4 more years.

also remember Buffalo has Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching, Carrier due for new contracts

forward roster:

Bailey(BR)-ROR($7.5M)-Okposo ($6M)
Nylander (ELC)-Eichel ($6.25M)-Bailey(BR)
Kane ($6M)-Reinhart ($5.25M)- Baptiste(BR)
FGL($3M)-Rogrigues(BR)-Carrier(BR)
Moulson( $5M), Ennis ($4.6M)

I only see one of Foligno.,, Girgensosn, and Larsson being on the team in 18/19---the cap will be too close.

on defense:

McCabe($1.6M)-Risto ($5.4M)
vet($5.9M)-Bogo($5.1M)
Guhle (ELC)-2017 1st round(ELC)
vet ($2M)

Lehner( $4M)
backup ($1M)

forwards=$42.6M+ 1 ELC+ 5 BR
Dmen=$22M
goalie= $5M

assume ELC+BR are each $1M

$48.6+$22+$5= $75.6M


SO Buffalo will be right up against the cap.

As a result this also opens th3e door for BBFC to be offer sheeted by teams at around $3M per which would only cost thenm a 2nd round pick that buffalo will not be able to match.

For Buffalo to resign Kane(which i am fine with), Buffalo needs to get Moulson or ennis off the books in 2018.

even then in resigning Kane--ideally they would want it for just 4 yrs which will take him to the time when BBCF are all UFAs

in 2019 whomever was left (Moulson or ennis)---their money would then shift to McCabe.

in 2020 Bogo's contract is done so his space would be saved for Guhle/2017 1st round pick.

With a vet they acquired/signed they would like to limit him to about 5 yrs.

with Eichel and Reinhart the other option is to sign them to 5 yr deals at lower costs which will take them to when ROR/KO end.

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03-03-2017, 08:01 AM
  #58
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Lehner won't make 4 million

Eichel will make more than 6.25

Falk/Fedun will stay in depth at sub 1 million (or an equivalent player).

We will still have 2 of FLG around, at the 2.5 range each

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03-03-2017, 08:22 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by makeitburn View Post
Lehner won't make 4 million

Eichel will make more than 6.25

Falk/Fedun will stay in depth at sub 1 million (or an equivalent player).

We will still have 2 of FLG around, at the 2.5 range each
Not that pleased that Murray made the type of commitment he made to Lehner (1st Rounder). Now he's obligated. IMO Lehner hasn't been a difference maker. At least not yet. And we know how he is in shootouts. He has been more composed this year, with the exception of the Vancouver game, so that's good, but still not sure how big of a contract he should warrant. Concerned about term for him as well. Still think he needs to prove himself some. A contract with incentives would seem to make sense.

Going with Ullmark would certainly save some money. But given the commitment, that's not even an option.


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03-03-2017, 08:27 AM
  #60
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I like Bailey but he will not double shift.

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Old
03-03-2017, 09:50 AM
  #61
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Not that pleased that Murray made the type of commitment he made to Lehner (1st Rounder). Now he's obligated. IMO Lehner hasn't been a difference maker. At least not yet. And we know how he is in shootouts. He has been more composed this year, with the exception of the Vancouver game, so that's good, but still not sure how big of a contract he should warrant. Concerned about term for him as well. Still think he needs to prove himself some. A contract with incentives would seem to make sense.

Going with Ullmark would certainly save some money. But given the commitment, that's not even an option.
Performance bonuses are only allowed on ELC contracts. There are no such thing as contracts with incentives for non-ELC contracts. Murray isn't obligated to keep Lehner just because he paid a 1st. Ullmark has been disappointing in the AHL this year, has some fundamental issues of his own, and has even more to prove. Going with Ullmark should not be an option whether we had Lehner or not.

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03-03-2017, 10:13 AM
  #62
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Reinhart might not get 7, but I'd rather plan for the "worst"
I think $7per for Reinhart is tad high for worst case but close enough if you're rounding up. It's also difficult because what's he getting paid as? Future 2nd line center? Top 6 wing? Future 3rd line center? $7 per puts him tied for 21st highest paid forward in the league, meaning you'd want him to already be or at least soon be a top line forward regardless of C/W. I don't think he's there yet and may not reach there. I'd categorize him traditionally as a 2nd line player.

Of the forwards getting more than $7 per, most are on 3rd+ contracts buying almost all UFA years. Exceptions:

Tarasenko-8yrs 7.5per scored 73 points in 77 games the last year of his ELC, but was .5 and .67 the first 2
Ovechkin-no explanation needed

Reinharts not in that group.

Of the rest of the players currently making more than $7mil, here's some notable 2nd contracts:
P. Kane 5yr $6.3per (11.09% 10-11) - 70, 72, 88 points 3 prior years .88-1.07 ppg
Toews 5yr $6.3per (11.09% 10-11) - 54, 69, 68 pts .84-.89 ppg
Kopitar 5yr $6.8per (11.99% 09-10) - 61, 77, 76 pts .8-.95 ppg
Perry 5yr $5.3per (9.39% 08-09) - 44, 54 pts .54-.77 ppg (has ranged .75-1.2 ppg since)
Stamkos 5yr $7.5per (11.66% 11-12) - 46, 95, 91 pts .58 ppg first year then 1.16, 1.11 ppg next 2
Giroux 3yr $3.75per (6.31% 11-12) - 27, 47, 76 pts .64, .57, .93 ppg (and went on to be a >1ppg player for next 3 years)
Spezza 7yr $7per (13.92% 08-09) - 87, 92 pts 1.21-1.3 ppg
Ryan 5yr $5.1per (8.59% 10-11) - 10, 57, 64 pts .43-.89 ppg
---
above: players currently making more than 7per
below: other comparable players 2nd contracts
---
P. Bergeron 5yr $4.75per (10.80% 06-07) - 39, lockout, 73 pts .9ppg in 73pt season
Gaudreau 6yr $6.75per (9.25% 16-17) - 64, 78 pts .8-.99 ppg
Monahan 7yr $6.375per (8.73% 16-17) - 34, 62, 63 pts .77/.78ppg 2nd/3rd year
Mackinnon 7yr $6.3per (8.63% 16-17) - 63, 38, 52 pts .59-.77 ppg
Scheifele 8yr $6.125per (8.39% 16-17) - 34, 49, 61 pts .54-.86 ppg
Nugent-Hopkins 7yr $6per (9.33% 14-15) - 52, 24, 56 pts .6-.84 ppg
Saad 6yr $6per (8.22% 15-16) - 27, 47, 52 pts .59-.63 ppg

And here's Reinharts ppg last year and this year: 15-16: .53, 16-17: .65

I know points aren't the most important measure of a player but they do have a big effect on contract negotiations. Of the players currently making more than $7per, Perry and Ryan are the best comparables to Reinharts production. Of the younger player, its hard to make a case for him to be paid more than Monahan based on production (but also not all that much less). Certainly not more than Gaudreau. You could probably make a case Reinhart deserves more than Mack or RNH. But Scheifele and Saad are also good comparables based on production. Tarasenko is an interesting comparable - very similar point production including G:A ratio first 2 years. I don't believe Sam will go on to be a 30-40 goal scorer tho like tarasenko became.

Just comparing Reinharts production to these players and what they cost, if Reinhart extends this summer we should expect something in the 5-7yr range, and between 8.5-9% of the cap. Even if the cap goes up to $75mil, thats a range of $6.375per to $6.75per. If the cap stays flat like some are predicting, that's a max of ~$6.5per. so capping it at $7per is probably fair for ballpark planning purposes, but I don't think he get that unless he waits until next year to extend and puts up a >70pt season next year.

As to those saying Reinhart is a $5mil guy, better prepare yourselves to be disappointed by his extension. The comparables don't really support that at all.

-Jordan Staal got 7.05% of the cap on his 2nd contract as a .6ppg player and recent 2nd overall draft pick. Even if the cap stays flat, thats $5.15per today. And Staals contract was only 4 years so did not buy many UFA years.

-Barkov is on a 6yr 5.9per contract he signed having never hit 60pts in a season (tho he was .79ppg when he signed his extension in the final year of his ELC and finished .89ppg).

-Seguin is in the middle of a $5.75 per contract but he didn't explode until after signing the extension. He earned the extension based on just a combined .77ppg in 129 games the final 2 years of his ELC. Also, that was still 9.58% of the cap when it was signed.

-You could even look at tavares and his $5.5per contract and argue that Reinhart shouldn't be paid anywhere near that. But that was still 8.55% of the cap when signed and would be $6.25per in todays cap dollar. And it was signed early, in the fall before the final year of his ELC, where his best season was 67pts and .85ppg, not yet the ppg player he went on to be for the next 4 years after signing.

-Jamie Benn is another. 5yr $5.25 per contract signed after .81 and .89ppg seasons. You could ask why Reinharts contract should be anywhere near that, but it was 8.16% of the cap when signed so it's eqivalent to $6mil today. Benn didn't go on to become a consistent >ppg player until 2 seasons after signing the extension. You could probably put Reinhart at around $6mil today but prob not less than $5.5 based on this comparable. And thats still not long term, just 5 yrs. 6 or 7 years would cost more.

-Brayden schenn just signed a 5.125per 4 year contract (7.02%). It's his 3rd contract (signed a cheap bridge), but Sam is already way ahead of what Schenn produced on his ELC. If I average his bridge and 3rd contract it'd be 6yrs 4.25per (which isn't really the same as signing a 6yr contract). Schenn never bettered .5 ppg for a full season on his ELC. First year of his bridge he got .57 ppg. He hit .74ppg the last year of his bridge and signed his extension the summer after. Sam should hit .74ppg next season, the final of his ELC. Sam deserves to be payed more than Schenn by a lot.

-Kucherov, Trocheck, Nyquist, Little, Palmieri, Kreider, Johansson, Anisimov - you'd basically have to put Reinhart in this group of players essentially to call him a $5mil player. And Kucherov is the only one that outproduced Reinhart at equal development year. Kuch's contract is only 4 years, and he's not getting paid nearly what he's worth, so I'm not sure he's sufficient justification to call Reinhart a $5mil player.


I'm sure I overlooked some players and I didn't account for things like changes in league scoring averages over the years and just looking at points... not meant to be a comprehensive analysis, just a framework of comparable players to ballpark what Sam's next contract will likely be. Nobody should be surprised if/when Sam extends for something in the $6-7per range (8-9.5% cap) and Eichel in the $8-9 per range (11-12% cap, based on his ppg production). Hope for less if you want, under value, team friendly, etc. But there shouldn't be outrage if these are close to the numbers .

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03-03-2017, 10:25 AM
  #63
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If we could get Sam locked up long term for $5.5-6, I take that and run with it.

Give Jack whatever he wants.

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03-03-2017, 10:32 AM
  #64
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Sabres need to bring somebody in who can finish Eichel's awesome set ups. Reinhart isn't that guy (if anything he should be setting up Eichel). Kane has been playing that role, but he isn't really that guy either (he needs the puck on his stick too much to be that guy). We need a Moulson to Eichel's Tavares.

Some options:
- Alex Nylander
- T.J. Oshie (too expensive?)
- Kyle Okposo (I can't remember him ever being tried on Eichel's wing)
- Alex Radulov
- Thomas Vanek
- Patrick Sharp (not sure he has it anymore)

Any trade targets? Doesn't really need to be a complete player. Just a guy that can bury chances when they are served up on a silver platter.

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03-03-2017, 11:00 AM
  #65
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Myers was a member of an old pushover core. He and bogosian are a wash. I don't miss myers at all. If bogosian is still on this team when we are playoff bound you will feel the same. I'll take the heart and soul player over the talented under achiever everyday of the week.
As a third overall pick making 5 million a year and playing like a third pairing guy, isn't Zach Bogosian a quintessential talented underachiever?

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03-03-2017, 11:03 AM
  #66
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There we go again,

Kane, Girgensons and a 1st Rounder.


Nuts. Absolutely nuts!
Would you trade Kane, Girgensons, and a first for PK Suban?

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03-03-2017, 11:07 AM
  #67
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Sabres need to bring somebody in who can finish Eichel's awesome set ups. Reinhart isn't that guy (if anything he should be setting up Eichel). Kane has been playing that role, but he isn't really that guy either (he needs the puck on his stick too much to be that guy). We need a Moulson to Eichel's Tavares.

Some options:
- Alex Nylander
- T.J. Oshie (too expensive?)
- Kyle Okposo (I can't remember him ever being tried on Eichel's wing)
- Alex Radulov
- Thomas Vanek
- Patrick Sharp (not sure he has it anymore)

Any trade targets? Doesn't really need to be a complete player. Just a guy that can bury chances when they are served up on a silver platter.
Nylander was drafted to be that and hopefully he will be. Baptiste is a natural sniper. And Rodrigues and Eichel were great together at BU in their one season together - need to give them a look in the NHL.

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03-03-2017, 11:10 AM
  #68
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Two penalties leading to PP's for Arizona, and back to the 4th line goes Girgs (let's hope 44 is a placeholder for Baptiste if Okposo can't go):


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03-03-2017, 11:15 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by DapperCam View Post
Sabres need to bring somebody in who can finish Eichel's awesome set ups. Reinhart isn't that guy (if anything he should be setting up Eichel). Kane has been playing that role, but he isn't really that guy either (he needs the puck on his stick too much to be that guy). We need a Moulson to Eichel's Tavares.

Some options:
- Alex Nylander
- T.J. Oshie (too expensive?)
- Kyle Okposo (I can't remember him ever being tried on Eichel's wing)
- Alex Radulov
- Thomas Vanek
- Patrick Sharp (not sure he has it anymore)

Any trade targets? Doesn't really need to be a complete player. Just a guy that can bury chances when they are served up on a silver platter.
I don't see us adding any wingers in the offseason. Assuming they bring back Gionta, you're looking at:

Kane, Carrier, Foligno, Okposo, Gionta, Bailey, Baptise, and one of our 5 centers at wing. And that's not even counting bums like Ennis, Moulson, and Des.

If we do bring in someone to try on Eichel's wing, I can't imagine it's anything more than a lotto ball, 1 million dollar 1 year longshot on a vet hoping to show he's still got something. I wonder what Hemsky would get on the open market.

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03-03-2017, 11:17 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by DapperCam View Post
Sabres need to bring somebody in who can finish Eichel's awesome set ups. Reinhart isn't that guy (if anything he should be setting up Eichel). Kane has been playing that role, but he isn't really that guy either (he needs the puck on his stick too much to be that guy). We need a Moulson to Eichel's Tavares.

Some options:
- Alex Nylander
- T.J. Oshie (too expensive?)
- Kyle Okposo (I can't remember him ever being tried on Eichel's wing)
- Alex Radulov
- Thomas Vanek
- Patrick Sharp (not sure he has it anymore)

Any trade targets? Doesn't really need to be a complete player. Just a guy that can bury chances when they are served up on a silver platter.
Vanek can not play in the top 6 with Eichel. Nylander should be the guy when he's ready.

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03-03-2017, 11:18 AM
  #71
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Two penalties leading to PP's for Arizona, and back to the 4th line goes Girgs (let's hope 44 is a placeholder for Baptiste if Okposo can't go):

Eh, who has the worst end of the stick, Rodriguez with Ennis and Moulson or Girgensons possibly with Bailey and Baptise?

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03-03-2017, 11:20 AM
  #72
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Would you trade Kane, Girgensons, and a first for PK Suban?
Certainly that would get me more interested, but honestly I think you're generally missing my point in how I think we should move forward with this team.

I don't believe we should be making blockbuster trades right now, because we're not deep enough to do that. To Murray's credit, he DID get the 2 best players in the O'Reilly and Kane deals, even though we gave up a lot to get them. Additionally, to think we are loaded up front right now is ludicrous.

But IMO moving Kane, after what it took to acquire him, is absolutely counterproductive. Especially considering his value to other teams doesn't seem to add up to what it is to ours, based on what teams are willing to give up to get him.

Time to find some 2nd tier prospects, draft and possibly acquire someone who may be more of a veteran presence who can help out our guys. Maybe even search abroad to find someone playing in a different league that you might be able to convince to come over.


This team is absolutely not deep enough to swing for the fences again.


But it's also not as far away to competing for/in the playoffs as some might think.


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03-03-2017, 11:52 AM
  #73
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Two penalties leading to PP's for Arizona, and back to the 4th line goes Girgs (let's hope 44 is a placeholder for Baptiste if Okposo can't go):

Jesus. Des back in? Yuck.

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03-03-2017, 12:06 PM
  #74
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Okposo out. I would assume at least the weekend.

Can we call baptiste back and not do the des thing again please


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03-03-2017, 12:33 PM
  #75
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I've missed large portions of the last few games but have they put Erod with Eichel yet? Even for a few shifts? If there is was there any chemistry

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