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Roster speculation 16-17 part 3

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Old
03-07-2017, 09:42 AM
  #101
Gabrielor
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Zach Bogosian is quietly having a very bad season in comparison to last year, which was also pretty bad.

It also appears that Tyler Ennis has no form to regain.

I dislike Moulson and want to see him gone, but at least his numbers have improved from last year, unlike the 2 above. Too much salary doing too little.

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03-07-2017, 09:50 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Gabrielor View Post
Zach Bogosian is quietly having a very bad season in comparison to last year, which was also pretty bad.
Not quietly. It's very loud.
Quote:
It also appears that Tyler Ennis has no form to regain.
He hasn't lost a step, so it's really not clear to me where his game has gone. Maybe teams have just figured him out. It's too much money for what he brings. He has to find confidence somehow.
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I dislike Moulson and want to see him gone, but at least his numbers have improved from last year, unlike the 2 above. Too much salary doing too little.
Moulson has had a good a year as you could reasonably ask of him. He has spent most of the year at, or near, the top of the Sabres forwards in Relative Corsi. He clearly doesn't have the footspeed to keep up with the top lines, and Bylsma's system, which often leaves forwards WAY behind the play when the puck is coming back into the O zone, does him no favors. I don't actually mind him on the 4th line and 2nd PP. But he makes far too much money for that.

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03-07-2017, 09:55 AM
  #103
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Not quietly. It's very loud.

He hasn't lost a step, so it's really not clear to me where his game has gone. Maybe teams have just figured him out. It's too much money for what he brings. He has to find confidence somehow.

Moulson has had a good a year as you could reasonably ask of him. He has spent most of the year at, or near, the top of the Sabres forwards in Relative Corsi. He clearly doesn't have the footspeed to keep up with the top lines, and Bylsma's system, which often leaves forwards WAY behind the play when the puck is coming back into the O zone, does him no favors. I don't actually mind him on the 4th line and 2nd PP. But he makes far too much money for that.
Crazy to me that you don't think so because to my eyes he has clearly lost a step and I can see him laboring when skating in a straight line. Gionta at 38 right now is faster than Ennis.

My hope is that if he isn't taken by Vegas is that his slowness is due to the injury/surgery to his groin and will improve with time. He is not an NHL player if what we see of him now is a permanent situation for him.

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03-07-2017, 10:12 AM
  #104
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Not quietly. It's very loud.

He hasn't lost a step, so it's really not clear to me where his game has gone. Maybe teams have just figured him out. It's too much money for what he brings. He has to find confidence somehow.

Moulson has had a good a year as you could reasonably ask of him. He has spent most of the year at, or near, the top of the Sabres forwards in Relative Corsi. He clearly doesn't have the footspeed to keep up with the top lines, and Bylsma's system, which often leaves forwards WAY behind the play when the puck is coming back into the O zone, does him no favors. I don't actually mind him on the 4th line and 2nd PP. But he makes far too much money for that.
When it comes to Tyler Ennis I am sure the injuries take a psychological toll too, especially concussions.

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03-07-2017, 10:18 AM
  #105
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I'm not sure how Murray is going to be able to improve this team and move the dead weight that needs to be moved. I don't know if we make the playoffs next year either unless there's some big turnaround for some guys, or he trades nylander for NHL ready defense.

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03-07-2017, 10:19 AM
  #106
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I would lean the Taney way. I think Risto needs some help behind him to really move his game forward. It seems like there are going to be a lot of teams trying to fix their defense next year. We might have some competition.
Me too. I think RHD is going to be harder to find and acquire. Plus, Fowler is a free agent in 2018.

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Originally Posted by sabresandcanucks View Post
Vancouver radio was mentioning the Sabres were shopping Kane at the Deadline. (Check Matt Sekeres Twitter) We also know the Canucks were approached about Chris Tanev but don't know who that team was and the return on offer (Could very well have been the Sabres). Given Murray's less than committal comments about Kane post Deadline you have to think Kane is gone this summer for a top 4 D man. At least that will be the plan.
Sounds like GMTM was working some draft deal agreements. I think he worked out something around Fowler last TDL but was derailed by Kane's night club incident.

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I'm completely aligned with you. I'd add the Minnesota situation on the blueline as being a key player/component of the offseason market for defensemen
I'm super interested in how the Wild do in the expansion draft. If Fletcher is able to reach a protection deal with McPhee that allows him to keep his 5 defensemen, then that's the ideal Kane location. Brodin or Scandella are the obvious choices. I'd like to package Tuch into the deal.

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For the most part and in principle I'm with you, it's the details I don't necessarily agree with.

1. Easier than anticipated? Nah. Both Tanev and Fowler would cost a king's ransom and Kane alone as a return won't cut it, as much as I would like that. Look at their respective contracts: Fowler has a lower cap hit and we all know about Anaheim being a budget team. Tanev is signed for two seasons longer than Kane at a lower caphit as well.
And that's even without accounting for value disparity due to position (dman > winger) as well as stiff competition from half the league who could also use those guys.

2. Hainsey might be a good idea or he might not, depending on his contract demands. Also, I'm all for making the kids earn it, but Guhle has pretty much earned it for the second year now. Barring a less than impressive camp, he should be on that 3rd pair.

Here's what I would do: Go all in for Trouba. It's gonna cost the (probably high) 2017 1st plus quite a bit more, but it gives you another guy who can anchor a top 2 pairing by himself. Sign Kulikov for rather cheap with the aim of him being replaced by Guhle eventually.

Then the Kane question is of less urgency. Trade him to replenish the pipeline or keep him for now, depending on the offers.
1. Anaheim has around $7M coming off the books this off-season. The can afford the $1M difference between Kane and Fowler. And Vancouver is reportedly interested in Kane. They've got 3 top 4 RHD and a need at LW.

2. Hainsey is a wash with Franson coming off the books. Hainsey means GMTM isn't forced to put Guhle in the lineup. Past two camps do not mean much. What if he regresses? What if GMTM thinks Rochester is his best spot? Hainsey allows for that.

3. Jets will want a LHD back for Trouba. McCabe doesn't start the conversation. Ready to give up Guhle++? I'm not. And the Jets don't need more wingers, so Nylander isn't getting it done. Plus Trouba is going to need the same minutes as Ristolainen. I don't think GMTM goes this route.

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03-07-2017, 10:26 AM
  #107
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http://www.startribune.com/wild-gm-c...cts/415403334/

The Wild's GM who is a friend of Tim Murray is going to be looking to get back some draft picks, we have an extra 2nd and 3rd round pick this year from Chris Stewart and Mike Weber trades.

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03-07-2017, 12:22 PM
  #108
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I'm completely aligned with you. I'd add the Minnesota situation on the blueline as being a key player/component of the offseason market for defensemen
Another thought - getting both Tanev and Fowler, as you suggested, would be the coup that truly fixes the defense. Substitute Wild defenders for either, as I think Scandella fills the defensive paring role, and Brodin can fill either role.

Kane for X is the way forward for one of the defenders. I think the trick is using the 2017 1st, Nylander, etc. to swing the second defender.

I'd love to send Nylander for Fowler. I don't think Nylander fits Anaheim's style of play. A don't know if a package of lesser parts works (eg: 2017 1st, Girgensons, Baptiste, etc). Depends how Anaheim values Fowler as an expiring contract, and if GMBM thinks the Ducks can put together another run. Maybe if they get bounced from the playoffs early again this year, it might spur him to make some reloading type moves with youth in mind.

If GMTM can translate Kane and assets into two legit top 4 defenders, one offensive and one defensive, he's done his work.

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03-07-2017, 12:39 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Der Jaeger View Post
Another thought - getting both Tanev and Fowler, as you suggested, would be the coup that truly fixes the defense. Substitute Wild defenders for either, as I think Scandella fills the defensive paring role, and Brodin can fill either role.

Kane for X is the way forward for one of the defenders. I think the trick is using the 2017 1st, Nylander, etc. to swing the second defender.

I'd love to send Nylander for Fowler. I don't think Nylander fits Anaheim's style of play. A don't know if a package of lesser parts works (eg: 2017 1st, Girgensons, Baptiste, etc). Depends how Anaheim values Fowler as an expiring contract, and if GMBM thinks the Ducks can put together another run. Maybe if they get bounced from the playoffs early again this year, it might spur him to make some reloading type moves with youth in mind.

If GMTM can translate Kane and assets into two legit top 4 defenders, one offensive and one defensive, he's done his work.
Unfortunately I think they'll move Vatanen and re-sign Fowler.

Kane for Scandella, 2017 1st + Bogosian for Tanev.

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03-07-2017, 12:44 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Ristoreilly View Post
2017 1st + Bogosian for Tanev.
Vancouver laughs, hangs up.

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03-07-2017, 12:45 PM
  #111
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McCabe doesn't start the conversation. Ready to give up Guhle++? I'm not.
Are you saying Guhle has more value than McCabe?

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03-07-2017, 01:00 PM
  #112
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McCabe is definitely worth more then Guhle. My guess is that there won't be a top pairing Dman added. It'll be Bogosian/Kulikov types... dmen who are second pairing guys in theory. I'd be happy this off season if all we did was move the deadweight off the roster and added a couple middle pairing dmen. McCabe on the top pairing is a lot more tolerable when you have a decent quality dman behind him on the second pairing. Free agency has very little to offer. I'd like Alzner but not for what it will likely cost. If he can be signed for $5.5~ mil or so I'd look into it, as long as Bogo is moved out.

I just don't think a major retooling of the blue line is feasible or realistic. If anything I could see a trade for a dman to replace Kulikov, and a couple bottom pairing guys to replace Franson and for when Bogo misses his annual 25-30 games.

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03-07-2017, 01:04 PM
  #113
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Are you saying Guhle has more value than McCabe?
Prior to the expansion draft he might. Since he wouldn't need to be protected and McCabe would.

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03-07-2017, 02:00 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Prior to the expansion draft he might. Since he wouldn't need to be protected and McCabe would.
So when teams are afraid of losing him for nothing. That's a rare scenario and one in which we'd be ill advised to deal him at all -- position of maximum weakness, lowest value.

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03-07-2017, 04:11 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Ristoreilly View Post
Unfortunately I think they'll move Vatanen and re-sign Fowler.

Kane for Scandella, 2017 1st + Bogosian for Tanev.
GMTM would need to see how Minnesota played the expansion draft. If they protect 7-3-1 and lose a defender, that' puts them at 4 top 4 defenders. I don't think Fletcher is looking to trade a defender then.

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Are you saying Guhle has more value than McCabe?
See below for one reason. Another is potential. I think Guhle has more upside that McCabe. I think McCabe is a really solid top 4 defender who complements his partner but probably doesn't drive the pairing. Guhle still has the potential to grow into more.

And I'm a huge McCabe fan.

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Prior to the expansion draft he might. Since he wouldn't need to be protected and McCabe would.

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03-07-2017, 08:25 PM
  #116
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Unfortunately I think they'll move Vatanen and re-sign Fowler
I'd assume so as well, but it depends what Kane's value is this off-season.

I think Murray realizes he has enough Forward talent (Eichel-O'Reilly-Reinhart-Okposo supported by Bailey Baptiste Rodrigues and eventually Nylander, plus likely two of Girgensons/Foligno/Larsson)
that Kane is expendable.

The main question is what could he bring in return?

He's been out of trouble since the summer.

He's closing in on 30goals.

He plays a style that is deeply appreciated by GM's around the league (big fast shoots and hits, non-stop motor on the ice).

If the return is Fowler/Tanev/Brodin... then just do it. But I just wonder if GM's will pay that price given his history.


I also think one of Girgensons/Larsson/Foligno is also dealt for a lesser defenseman. Someone along the level of DeHann or Van Riemsdyk (possibly after being selected by Vegas).

Could give us a couple scenarios...

Scenario 1:
Fowler/Brodin-Ristolainen
McCabe-Van Riemsdyk
Falk-Bogosian
Gorges

Scenario 2:
DeHann-Ristolainen
McCabe-Tanev
Falk-Bogosian

I'd much rather go with scenario 1:
A lot depends on Fowler's negotiations with Anaheim. If they can't get him extended this seems to be a much more likely scenario.

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03-07-2017, 08:49 PM
  #117
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Me too. I think RHD is going to be harder to find and acquire. Plus, Fowler is a free agent in 2018.



Sounds like GMTM was working some draft deal agreements. I think he worked out something around Fowler last TDL but was derailed by Kane's night club incident.



I'm super interested in how the Wild do in the expansion draft. If Fletcher is able to reach a protection deal with McPhee that allows him to keep his 5 defensemen, then that's the ideal Kane location. Brodin or Scandella are the obvious choices. I'd like to package Tuch into the deal.



1. Anaheim has around $7M coming off the books this off-season. The can afford the $1M difference between Kane and Fowler. And Vancouver is reportedly interested in Kane. They've got 3 top 4 RHD and a need at LW.

2. Hainsey is a wash with Franson coming off the books. Hainsey means GMTM isn't forced to put Guhle in the lineup. Past two camps do not mean much. What if he regresses? What if GMTM thinks Rochester is his best spot? Hainsey allows for that.

3. Jets will want a LHD back for Trouba. McCabe doesn't start the conversation. Ready to give up Guhle++? I'm not. And the Jets don't need more wingers, so Nylander isn't getting it done. Plus Trouba is going to need the same minutes as Ristolainen. I don't think GMTM goes this route.
Biggest problem is that Kane likely won't be enough, neither for Tanev nor Fowler or Brodin. Scandella, sure, but does he fit with Risto?
McCabe + 1st absolutely does start the conversation on Trouba, but I wouldn't do it.
Guhle, however, as the main piece if Trouba indicates that he'll resign with Buffalo? It'd sting, but I'd likely do it. Risto and Trouba competing for the same minutes should be a solvable problem.

That being said, I'm not opposed to getting Tanev + Fowler at all. I think it would be ideal. Just not as easy and cheap as you may hope.

Another guy I'd look into btw. is Fleury from the Canes. Should be available plus a reasonable risk vs. reward prospect.

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03-07-2017, 10:33 PM
  #118
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I'm about the biggest Justin Bailey fan on here but he's disappointing me, he's not making things happen. He has the tools. I know he's no longer on one of the top lines but still when he gets on the ice as a 4th liner he has to make things happen and he isn't now.

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03-08-2017, 09:36 AM
  #119
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I love Sam Reinhart but hear me out.

And yes, I think Sam's best years are ahead of him.

And yes, I would hate to rip Jack's good friend and teammate away from him. This is the one that hurts me the most.

BUT

If you're making a hockey trade and trying to match salary somewhat in the process, what better player is there to move for a young defenseman than him?

Moving Kane is a waste and counterproductive. I love what he brings to the table and look what we gave up to get him. He's only 25 himself. Plus, the return on him is absolutely NOT what he's worth to us on the ice.


Lets' make the move now while Reinhart's young and not look back. And after that, we just keep drafting right and possibly make a smaller and smarter move or 2 to tweak things. There is not another move trade wise that would help us more than this as far as being a competitive team for years to come IMO.

If people would just have an open mind, I really don't see how this isn't the best move.


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03-08-2017, 09:42 AM
  #120
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Another thought - getting both Tanev and Fowler, as you suggested, would be the coup that truly fixes the defense. Substitute Wild defenders for either, as I think Scandella fills the defensive paring role, and Brodin can fill either role.

Kane for X is the way forward for one of the defenders. I think the trick is using the 2017 1st, Nylander, etc. to swing the second defender.

I'd love to send Nylander for Fowler. I don't think Nylander fits Anaheim's style of play. A don't know if a package of lesser parts works (eg: 2017 1st, Girgensons, Baptiste, etc). Depends how Anaheim values Fowler as an expiring contract, and if GMBM thinks the Ducks can put together another run. Maybe if they get bounced from the playoffs early again this year, it might spur him to make some reloading type moves with youth in mind.

If GMTM can translate Kane and assets into two legit top 4 defenders, one offensive and one defensive, he's done his work.
Vancouver does want to get a little younger. So maybe they can move Kane for Tanev. I think the LD can come from Vegas. I am pretty Vegas would love to get their hands on Nylander. I am guessing Scandella could be the guy in Vegas for us to target.

Another lower level LD to target would be Brandon Davidson.

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03-08-2017, 09:46 AM
  #121
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Vancouver does want to get a little younger. So maybe they can move Kane for Tanev. I think the LD can come from Vegas. I am pretty Vegas would love to get their hands on Nylander. I am guessing Scandella could be the guy in Vegas for us to target.

Another lower level LD to target would be Brandon Davidson.
Maybe they could move Kane for Tanev? You think?

I swear, the proposals I hear around here are going to cement us into the ground for years to come.

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03-08-2017, 09:49 AM
  #122
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I love Sam Reinhart but hear me out.

And yes, I think Sam's best years are ahead of him.

And yes, I would hate to rip Jack's good friend and teammate away from him. This is the one that hurts me the most.

BUT

If you're making a hockey trade and trying to match salary somewhat in the process, what better player is there to move for a young defenseman than him?

Moving Kane is a waste and counterproductive. I love what he brings to the table and look what we gave up to get him. He's only 25 himself. Plus, the return on him is absolutely NOT what he's worth to us on the ice.


Lets' make the move now while Reinhart's young and not look back. And after that, we just keep drafting right and possibly make a smaller and smarter move or 2 to tweak things. There is not another move trade wise that would help us more than this as far as being competitive sooner rather than later IMO.

If people would just have an open mind, I really don't see how this isn't the best move.
I agree that Sam is the right piece to consider moving. It would also allow us to draft BPA. As of now, it feels like we have no choice but draft a defenseman, which can put you in a bad spot.

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03-08-2017, 09:52 AM
  #123
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I agree that Sam is the right piece to consider moving. It would also allow us to draft BPA. As of now, it feels like we have no choice but draft a defenseman, which can put you in a bad spot.
Love your point about drafting best player. Although tough at first, this really seems like the best hockey move moving forward.

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03-08-2017, 09:54 AM
  #124
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The people clamoring for trading Reinhart are the same people who scoff at the idea at trading Kane for Tanev.

This says a lot.

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03-08-2017, 09:54 AM
  #125
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Maybe they could move Kane for Tanev? You think?

I swear, the proposals I hear around here are going to cement us into the ground for years to come.
I know you are a huge Kane fan. So am I but he is one of our best assets to use in order to get a Defenseman. We are so lost in the defensive zone right now. If we keep Kane and use other assets our D is going to be similar to this year. If we want to move forward we have to add higher end guys.

I have never seen you respond with how you would fix the D. What would you do?

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