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OT: When does a sports market become too saturated? (article about Twin Cities)

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Old
03-03-2017, 09:56 AM
  #1
cutchemist42
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OT: When does a sports market become too saturated? (article about Twin Cities)

https://www.minnpost.com/politics-po...-cities-suppor

Article got me thinking as Seattle is mentioned as well as Denver. With the expected franchise fees for the MLS expansion, I think the days of ignoring their impact are completely gone, right? How legit of a financial impact is a major university? (UW, UMinn, UT if Austin is ever considered, etc)

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03-03-2017, 10:27 AM
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Very interesting article. I do think the the MLS have got a great chance of finding new fans bored with traditional sports and building on the success of the sport among kids.

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03-03-2017, 10:38 AM
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Melrose Munch
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In seriousness the markets below 5 million 3+ teams will be always be stretched.

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03-03-2017, 11:58 AM
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nickschultzfan
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Yes, Twin Cities can support an MLS team. We are moving away from general sports fans and to specialized sports fans.

If anything, it might hurt the Twins and Vikings. Wild and Timberwolves won't be impacted much.

Minnesota Gopher hockey and Minnesota Wild have never had a problem.

Minnesota Gopher football lack of success has less to do with the Vikings and more to do with on the field play for decades.

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03-03-2017, 12:05 PM
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the Twins are basically a minor league team anyways

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03-03-2017, 12:24 PM
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Morgoth Bauglir
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nickschultzfan View Post
We are moving away from general sports fans and to specialized sports fans.
That's a phenomena I'm curious about. When I was young you could find just about any sport on over-the-air TV ("Spanning the globe to bring you the constant variety of sports.") It seemed like America was sports crazy back then and would watch damn near anything sports. Starting in the '90s that seemed to change and I'm not entirely sure why.

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03-03-2017, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Melrose Munch View Post
In seriousness the markets below 5 million 3+ teams will be always be stretched.
Boston has a TV market of 4.3 million and a metro of 4.8 million and supports top 5 revenue teams in all 4 major sports.
Detroit, Phoenix, Denver and Minneapolis also all have all 4 major sports.
that 5/13 that are below the 5 million threshold.
3-3.5 million is a better threshold.

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03-03-2017, 01:51 PM
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There are a ton of different factors.

How many people live in a market? How large is the area of the market? Can you draw people from outside the market? How much money is in the market?

I see no reason why the Twin Cities can't support an MLS team.

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03-03-2017, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Morgoth Bauglir View Post
That's a phenomena I'm curious about. When I was young you could find just about any sport on over-the-air TV ("Spanning the globe to bring you the constant variety of sports.") It seemed like America was sports crazy back then and would watch damn near anything sports. Starting in the '90s that seemed to change and I'm not entirely sure why.
Fragmentation and the death of the monoculture post internet. In a world with 3 channels, there are only so many niches that exist. In a world of 24/7 on demand global entertainment, the niches are unlimited.

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03-03-2017, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by IslesNorway View Post
I do think the the MLS have got a great chance of finding new fans bored with traditional sports and building on the success of the sport among kids.
I don't know how. If you are already bored with sports and then go and watch soccer you'd probably cut your eyes out!

I think the MLS is the best soccer league in the world with its restrictions and typical North American complexitiy keeping it a level playing field but at the end of the day, soccer is soccer and its not very entertaining

Personal opinion ofcourse!

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03-03-2017, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Bruins1233 View Post
Boston has a TV market of 4.3 million and a metro of 4.8 million and supports top 5 revenue teams in all 4 major sports.
Detroit, Phoenix, Denver and Minneapolis also all have all 4 major sports.
that 5/13 that are below the 5 million threshold.
3-3.5 million is a better threshold.
Boston is surrounded by a bunch of areas that are in the CSA and not metro. Because the way the census Bureau counts metro areas, Boston looks smaller than it is. The area used to be officially county as 5.8 million as the 2000 census before being split up. The Boston CSA currently has 8 milion, far larger then the official metro area.


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03-03-2017, 05:29 PM
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The Twin Cities may have the most sports teams (major, minor, college and high school) per capita than any other city in America. Probably reached its saturation point with regards to how many teams it can support. Good news with MLS is that it doesn't require significant additional revenue from the local populace and corporate base. Most MLS teams have revenues in the range of $20 - $30 million - a fraction of any of the big-4 leagues.

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03-03-2017, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy View Post
The Twin Cities may have the most sports teams (major, minor, college and high school) per capita than any other city in America. Probably reached its saturation point with regards to how many teams it can support. Good news with MLS is that it doesn't require significant additional revenue from the local populace and corporate base. Most MLS teams have revenues in the range of $20 - $30 million - a fraction of any of the big-4 leagues.
Does Minnesota United then face a harder time to reach a high ceiling compared to what a SD MLS franchise might have? Or NHL in LV?

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03-03-2017, 09:27 PM
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This article mentions the Saints who average over 7000 at CHS Field but it does not mention that the twin cities lost their NLL team. Colardo Mammoth average over 12000 at the Pepsi Center in Denver.

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03-03-2017, 10:16 PM
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I honestly dont know who follows more than 2 sports, but they certainly dont do so avidly. If youre one of them, youre an anomaly, not the norm.

MU will succeed by converting soccer fans to follow an MLS team, in the same way that the Twins draw people who are baseball fans.

This idea that there is one pool of sports fan that gets shared around is silly.

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03-03-2017, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Mathers View Post
I honestly dont know who follows more than 2 sports, but they certainly dont do so avidly. If youre one of them, youre an anomaly, not the norm.

MU will succeed by converting soccer fans to follow an MLS team, in the same way that the Twins draw people who are baseball fans.

This idea that there is one pool of sports fan that gets shared around is silly.
I guess we'll have to define avid.

I know plenty of people that maintain fandom for multiple sports at a pretty high level. I'll admit that they're generally not the people hanging out in places like the prospects board here on Hf, but there's plenty of superfans of multiple sports.

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03-03-2017, 10:32 PM
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There are a ton of different factors.

How many people live in a market? How large is the area of the market? Can you draw people from outside the market? How much money is in the market?

I see no reason why the Twin Cities can't support an MLS team.
Same.

Atlanta is the one I'm more curious about as to whether or not it works long-term.

Also OT here, but 3 teams in the MLS with 'United' in the name, come on

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03-03-2017, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Bruins1233 View Post
Boston has a TV market of 4.3 million and a metro of 4.8 million and supports top 5 revenue teams in all 4 major sports.
Detroit, Phoenix, Denver and Minneapolis also all have all 4 major sports.
that 5/13 that are below the 5 million threshold.
3-3.5 million is a better threshold.
I think Boston is a special case - I wrote on another thread that it seems people are born there with Red Sox, Bruins, Celtics, etc. fandom in their DNA. Very deep in the culture and fun to observe as an outside fan.

By the way, Minneapolis doesn't have 4 major sports. The Twin Cities do, or Minneapolis-St. Paul does. A pet peeve of many on the St. Paul side of the Twin Cities. There's no "Minneapolis" metropolitan area or SMSA, or whatever they call it now. Don't even try to suggest to the dozens of towns on the eastern side of the Twin Cities that they're "suburbs" of Mpls. Kinda creeps us out. Best analogy I can think of if your airline intercom announces that you'll soon be landing in "Minneapolis" (which you won't be, by the way), is if you were on a tour flight of Jewish pilgrims to Tel Aviv and the stewardess says "please return your seats to the upright position as we begin our descent into 'Palestine.' Or you're going to Tibet, and the intercom says "Welcome to China!"

Some things just don't sound right!, and that word "Minneapolis" is one, unless you're actually in Minneapolis. Although rivalries aren't what they used to be when Mpls had the AAA minor league team for the Giants, and St. Paul for the Dodgers. They'd play holiday double-headers in both towns and fans would board the streetcars all beered up from the afternoon game to head to the other team's ballpark for the evening game and fights would break out all over the place. Then the players would get promoted to Brooklyn and NY and it'd be the same thing there! The cities had minor league hockey teams for the Bruins and Rangers, too. Big rivals back in the day, and a bit of that still survives, I guess.

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03-03-2017, 11:25 PM
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I guess we'll have to define avid.

I know plenty of people that maintain fandom for multiple sports at a pretty high level. I'll admit that they're generally not the people hanging out in places like the prospects board here on Hf, but there's plenty of superfans of multiple sports.
Maybe im reading it differently but you know people buying tickets regularly for 3 sports? Thats what I see as avid. I think anyone following more than that needs to get out....

Personally, I only have money/time to consume Blue Bomber tickets while paying to play golf/curling/re hockey. Theres no way I could find the time for the Jets.

And like past LV threads have covered....its also just as much about fighting for sponsorship/corporate money locally.

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03-04-2017, 03:24 AM
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Same.

Atlanta is the one I'm more curious about as to whether or not it works long-term.

Also OT here, but 3 teams in the MLS with 'United' in the name, come on
I don't think there's any doubt it working. Minnesota is capping season tickets at ~11,000 I believe. Atlanta has 30,000 STs. They'd have to mess up pretty hard to lose 10-15,000 STs in the future, and even then they'd be doing pretty well comparatively.

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03-04-2017, 10:28 AM
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Fragmentation and the death of the monoculture post internet. In a world with 3 channels, there are only so many niches that exist. In a world of 24/7 on demand global entertainment, the niches are unlimited.
This. You can watch almost any sport on the globe right now if you really want to.

You are not forced to follow your local football or baseball team just because everybody else seems to be doing that.

That is bad for the NFL and probably the NBA and MLB, but it is better for the more niche sports.

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03-04-2017, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by cutchemist42 View Post
https://www.minnpost.com/politics-po...-cities-suppor

With the expected franchise fees for the MLS expansion, I think the days of ignoring their impact are completely gone, right? How legit of a financial impact is a major university? (UW, UMinn, UT if Austin is ever considered, etc)
According the the MLS Wikipedia page their goal is to be one of the biggest leagues in the world by 2022. They are already, after only 23 years of existence and no more than 21 teams, the #15 sports league in the world for revenue and #9 for soccer leagues. That's very impressive.

After only six years it already looks like the Whitecaps are about to eclipse the BC Lions as the #2 favorite team in Vancouver.

I predict in the next 10-20 years the "Big 4" in North America will be upgraded to 5 with the MLS being the other entry. This league keeps becoming more relevant every year and sooner or later the other leagues will be looking at it as legit competition.

Having said this, I am a little curious to see how Atlanta will do. ATL is notorious for not always being the most supportive sports town and I can't imagine it being better for soccer.


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03-04-2017, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by End on a Hinote View Post
According the the MLS Wikipedia page their goal is to be one of the biggest leagues in the world by 2022. They are already, after only 23 years of existence and no more than 21 teams, the #15 sports league in the world for revenue and #9 for soccer leagues. That's very impressive.

After only six years it already looks like the Whitecaps are about to eclipse the BC Lions as the #2 favorite team in Vancouver.


I predict in the next 10-20 years the "Big 4" in North America will be upgraded to 5 with the MLS being the other entry. This league keeps becoming more relevant every year and sooner or later the other leagues will be looking at it as legit competition.

Having said this, I am a little curious to see how Atlanta will do. ATL is notorious for not always being the most supportive sports town and I can't imagine it being better for soccer.
I wonder if Braley ever gets tired of running CFL teams into the ground. The Lions would be on life support if Vancouver landed an MLB team.

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03-04-2017, 02:14 PM
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Fragmentation and the death of the monoculture post internet. In a world with 3 channels, there are only so many niches that exist. In a world of 24/7 on demand global entertainment, the niches are unlimited.
Probably a different topic, but how has this worked out in Europe and the way tv is handled there?

Just a feeling but I feel soccer and rugby have benefitted more from the opening up than American sports have.

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03-04-2017, 02:18 PM
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I wonder if Braley ever gets tired of running CFL teams into the ground. The Lions would be on life support if Vancouver landed an MLB team.
He should be tired of it. The Canucks have been interested in buying them for quite a while...old man needs to get off the pot

But back to the topic I agree with your premise re: the later.

The rise of MLS have eclipsed their CFL counterparts in the 3 big cities at this time.

Part of the reason why I think it will be a serious challenger to the other leagues down the road and more specifically the NHL.

More competition means more choiced for consumers and more specifically the casual crowd. Each league will always have the hardcores but that won't be enough in they're nor winning and the local competition is. Most NHL teams don't have biv enough TV/media dollars to fall back on during the down cycle.

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