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Vezina, who has the edge?

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Old
03-06-2017, 05:25 PM
  #101
rynryn
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Quote:
Originally Posted by State of Hockey View Post
Uh, winning percentage, of course. You think this stuff against the Wild is all made up out of thin air?

As of today, the Capitals are playing the 7th toughest schedule and have played the 11th toughest so far. Also as of today, the Blue Jackets have the 2nd toughest schedule and have also played the 2nd toughest. Their schedule gets a lot easier the rest of the way.
Link?

Thin air? Hardly. It's cherry picked drivel for the most part that hasn't gained you an ounce of credibility, as essentially nothing you want to happen has been happening.

edit: have to say you'll be right in the end, we won't win the cup this year--so congratulations in advance for being "right". Panthers won't win the cup this year. See, I'm a genius!

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03-06-2017, 05:27 PM
  #102
MuckOG
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Must be hard for a Wild fan to constantly rip them. He can't even enjoy the current success because it's "unsustainable".

Seriously, if I were him, I would look for another team to be a fan of. This must be awfully difficult for him.


Last edited by MuckOG: 03-06-2017 at 05:33 PM.
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03-06-2017, 05:29 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by State of Hockey View Post
Uh, winning percentage, of course. You think this stuff against the Wild is all made up out of thin air?

As of today, the Capitals are playing the 7th toughest schedule and have played the 11th toughest so far. Also as of today, the Blue Jackets have the 2nd toughest schedule and have also played the 2nd toughest. Their schedule gets a lot easier the rest of the way.
I would love to see some stats showing that the wild have played the easiest schedule. Just to educate myself and get on your level of expertise

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03-06-2017, 05:33 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
Goals saved above average is the best metric ATM.
HR's GSAA is a great stat, but the only problem here is that it's a derivative or SV%, and SV% is too dependent on game by game shot volume occurrences.

Corsica uses different criteria in their GSAA stat. I think they take into account shot quality, but I'm not entirely sure.

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03-06-2017, 05:35 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Mnsportsfan22 View Post
I would love to see some stats showing that the wild have played the easiest schedule. Just to educate myself and get on your level of expertise
Take with a grain of salt, but hockey-reference has a stat called strength of schedule, aka SOS, and the Wild according to this statistic is last which means they've essentially had the easiest schedule. But as I said, grain of salt required.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017.html

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03-06-2017, 05:36 PM
  #106
rynryn
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or hey, what if one team played and lost to a red hot, healthy team while another team beat them when they were down a first pairing D, starting goalie, and top center. That second team must be better than the first. right?

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03-06-2017, 05:43 PM
  #107
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Nothing earth shattering about the top teams having the easier strength of schedule.....The Hawks, Ducks and the Wild all have the easiest schedules. Most years, the teams with the easier SOS are usually the ones that advance deepest into the playoffs.


Last edited by MuckOG: 03-06-2017 at 05:50 PM.
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03-06-2017, 05:44 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrisinroch View Post
If you believe that GSAA is the best indicator we have of measuring goalies across the league, then it's not even close.

Dubnyk 29.63 goals over 50 games. .59/gm
Holtby 23.23 goals over 49 games. .47/gm
Bob. 23.16 goals over 51 games. .45/gm
A few things here.

1. If Dubnyk has a bad week, that number could fall rapidly enough to where it evens out. A 6 goal gap might seem significant due to there being a clear gap, but it's still pretty close.

2. Dubnyk averages more shots against per game than Holtby which explains why Dubnyk's GSAA is better despite Holtby having a lower GAA.

3. Dubnyk has a higher SV% than Bobrovsky which also explains why his GSAA is better than Bob's.

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03-06-2017, 06:05 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by rynryn View Post
Link?

Thin air? Hardly. It's cherry picked drivel for the most part that hasn't gained you an ounce of credibility, as essentially nothing you want to happen has been happening.
Eastern:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternsosag.html

Western:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/westernsosag.html

Adding loser points doesn't change the rankings. A points percentage ranking still has the Wild tied for last, Washington tied for 7th, and Columbus tied for 2nd to the thousandth of a point.


Those who trying to make a case for Dubnyk are in a tough conundrum. Those who follow the Wild closely commonly like to point to the stats that say the Wild has the best defense in the NHL. And I agree in thinking that the Wild has arguably played the best team defense in the NHL this year. So if Dubnyk is the deserving Vezina winner, for those people it means the Wild has both the best defense and best goaltender in the NHL. But if that's the case, why does Holtby have a stronger GAA? Why has Holtby given up 10 fewer 5 on 5 goals in only about a game less play? Why is Holtby's even strength save percentage slightly higher than Dubnyk's? Why are all of Bobrovsky's numbers almost identical to Dubnyk's numbers if he's not as good and doesn't have the defense behind him (no one will argue Columbus' defense is on the Wild's level)? And if you include backup goaltenders, the gaps wider further between teams. The Caps have given a whopping 26 fewer goals 5 on 5 than the Wild. And all that while the Wild has the easiest schedule, far easier than Columbus and Washington, and the Jackets and Capitals play in the most offensive division in the NHL (although the Central isn't far behind this year). These arguments fight against each other. You can't have both considering the circumstances. What is it? Does the Wild have the best defense? Or do they have the best goaltender? Or do they have neither?

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03-06-2017, 06:09 PM
  #110
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im leaning towards the guy who hasnt lost in regulation since DECEMBER.

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03-06-2017, 06:10 PM
  #111
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Remove the Colorado Avalanche and I wonder how much the strength of schedule rankings change? The Wild can't help that they gave up on the season after week 3.

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03-06-2017, 06:23 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by State of Hockey View Post
Eastern:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternsosag.html

Western:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/westernsosag.html

Adding loser points doesn't change the rankings. A points percentage ranking still has the Wild tied for last, Washington tied for 7th, and Columbus tied for 2nd to the thousandth of a point.


Those who trying to make a case for Dubnyk are in a tough conundrum. Those who follow the Wild closely commonly like to point to the stats that say the Wild has the best defense in the NHL. And I agree in thinking that the Wild has arguably played the best team defense in the NHL this year. So if Dubnyk is the deserving Vezina winner, for those people it means the Wild has both the best defense and best goaltender in the NHL. But if that's the case, why does Holtby have a stronger GAA? Why has Holtby given up 10 fewer 5 on 5 goals in only about a game less play? Why is Holtby's even strength save percentage slightly higher than Dubnyk's? Why are all of Bobrovsky's numbers almost identical to Dubnyk's numbers if he's not as good and doesn't have the defense behind him (no one will argue Columbus' defense is on the Wild's level)? And if you include backup goaltenders, the gaps wider further between teams. The Caps have given a whopping 26 fewer goals 5 on 5 than the Wild. And all that while the Wild has the easiest schedule, far easier than Columbus and Washington, and the Jackets and Capitals play in the most offensive division in the NHL (although the Central isn't far behind this year). These arguments fight against each other. You can't have both considering the circumstances. What is it? Does the Wild have the best defense? Or do they have the best goaltender? Or do they have neither?
When the toughest is 51% and weakest is 49%, seems like much ado about nothing. West is down this year and the Wild dont have to play the best team in the conference. Shocking they would be at the bottom...

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03-06-2017, 06:47 PM
  #113
rynryn
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Dubnyk doesn't deserve it because he faces more shots (save percentage is inflated) because our defense is superior?

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03-06-2017, 06:58 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rynryn View Post
Dubnyk doesn't deserve it because he faces more shots (save percentage is inflated) because our defense is superior?
Coaching system has an effect on shots allowed. Any coach who plays the flawed system of keeping the puck to the outside generally allows a good number of shots. It doesn't mean the defense is bad. Julien had a system like this in Boston.

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03-06-2017, 07:11 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Deathstroke View Post
Coaching system has an effect on shots allowed. Any coach who plays the flawed system of keeping the puck to the outside generally allows a good number of shots. It doesn't mean the defense is bad. Julien had a system like this in Boston.
How is this flawed?

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03-06-2017, 07:14 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
How is this flawed?
It typically doesn't work in the playoffs. It's also outdated. In this day and age, there is no such thing as a "low danger shot", and quantity typically is more important than quality.

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03-06-2017, 07:21 PM
  #117
rynryn
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Originally Posted by Deathstroke View Post
It typically doesn't work in the playoffs. It's also outdated. In this day and age, there is no such thing as a "low danger shot", and quantity typically is more important than quality.
No such thing? You haven't seen Suter shoot!


edit: seriously though, if you have a big, competent goalie and you keep players out of the shooting lane(and conveniently more out of position for a close-in deflection) that seems like it'd go a long way toward helping him out. If it's Kuemper in there we're boned (he looked a lot better when we were limiting shots against) but Dubnyk is doing great.

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03-06-2017, 07:22 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Deathstroke View Post
It typically doesn't work in the playoffs. It's also outdated. In this day and age, there is no such thing as a "low danger shot", and quantity typically is more important than quality.
You're saying that a shot from the blueline with the shooting lane cleared is just as dangerous as a shot from the slot?

You do realize that the Bruins won a Cup using this same strategy?

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03-06-2017, 07:38 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
You're saying that a shot from the blueline with the shooting lane cleared is just as dangerous as a shot from the slot?

You do realize that the Bruins won a Cup using this same strategy?
No I'm not saying all shots are equal. Quantity leads to quality.

And the Bruins won the cup that year because Thomas played like a god. They won despite the system not because of it.

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03-06-2017, 08:19 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by Deathstroke View Post
No I'm not saying all shots are equal. Quantity leads to quality.

And the Bruins won the cup that year because Thomas played like a god. They won despite the system not because of it.
OK....then what you are saying is that a hot goalie trumps all these advanced stats? We're in agreement then.

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03-06-2017, 08:25 PM
  #121
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Anyone who says Dubynk is system goalie needs to explain how whenever we play our Back up goaltender, we allow like 4+ goals?

And when Dubbyk plays, we give up 2 or less.

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03-06-2017, 08:25 PM
  #122
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I haven't seen much of Dubnyk. I have seen a lot of Holtby and he is extremely good. Much more of the real deal. You couldn't trade dubnyk for holtby right now.

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03-06-2017, 08:27 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by TheKingPin View Post
I haven't seen much of Dubnyk. I have seen a lot of Holtby and he is extremely good. Much more of the real deal. You couldn't trade dubnyk for holtby right now.
If you haven't seen much of Dubnyk, how can you make the claim that Holtby is "much more of the real deal"? To know this, wouldn't you have to have seen more of Dubnyk?


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03-06-2017, 08:31 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
Nothing earth shattering about the top teams having the easier strength of schedule.....The Hawks, Ducks and the Wild all have the easiest schedules. Most years, the teams with the easier SOS are usually the ones that advance deepest into the playoffs.
Got some evidence for that? When you exclude the SOS bias when you're a top team (because you don't face yourself), there's no logical argument to say that an easier schedule means your a better team and should go farther in the playoffs.

I know it doesn't jive with recent Stanley Cup winners, who more often come from the stronger conference.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
Remove the Colorado Avalanche and I wonder how much the strength of schedule rankings change? The Wild can't help that they gave up on the season after week 3.
Removing Colorado wouldn't have the effect one might think. Because if you take them out, you also drop the winning percentage of every team that has taken advantage of them. In won't materially change the Wild's placement in the Central or West SOS. It would change the East/West crossover, but only minimally, because it's just one team. And Colorado has actually been better against the East than the West this year.

Colorado is more of a symptom of a weaker West, not the cause.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatGuy22 View Post
When the toughest is 51% and weakest is 49%, seems like much ado about nothing. West is down this year and the Wild don't have to play the best team in the conference. Shocking they would be at the bottom...
~2% is more than it looks. It's like playing 72 games of the exact same schedule, then in the other 10 games one team plays San Jose and the other team plays Vancouver. There's a significant advantage for the 49% team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rynryn View Post
Dubnyk doesn't deserve it because he faces more shots (save percentage is inflated) because our defense is superior?
Quite the logical conundrum the "Dunbyk for Vezina" and "Wild for best defense" people have, don't they?

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03-06-2017, 08:32 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by TheKingPin View Post
I haven't seen much of Dubnyk. I have seen a lot of Holtby and he is extremely good. Much more of the real deal. You couldn't trade dubnyk for holtby right now.
Just watched Holtby allow 3 goals on 11 shots. Gets pulled. Dubynk Hasnt been pulled all year

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