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Old
03-14-2017, 06:15 PM
  #101
Preds33
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Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
Where did you get your numbers? Last I saw (has been a little bit since I checked) Preds were 7th in high danger shots allowed/60. They are also 5th in expected goals against. In any case, the defense is doing a very good job overall, this is all between the pipes. The people shouting from the rooftops that the Preds give up way too many chances, etc. are absolutely crazy. They actually compare very, very favorably across the league in chances and High Danger chances.



Wrong. The Preds are very good at limiting high danger chances and have the 5th lowest expected goals against (which is, in my opinion, pretty much the best current measure of defensive play in the advanced stats world). Watch around the league and you'll see just as many chances (Actually more on average unless you're watching one of 4 or 5 superior teams) allowed by other teams, difference is pretty much literally every goalie in the league is better than Rinne at stopping them.

Maybe for the whole season but as of late they gave been awful. Last night there were way too many high danger chances against.

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03-14-2017, 06:19 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
Maybe for the whole season but as of late they gave been awful. Last night there were way too many high danger chances against.
Okay, last night was admittedly a bad defensive game, but that doesn't explain Rinne being bad for most of the rest of this season, and the prior 2. And I wasn't exaggerating before, I think he is literally the worst goalie in the league at stopping decent chances. If not the absolute worst, he's very, very near the bottom, I haven't checked in a bit.

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03-14-2017, 07:44 PM
  #103
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I think I've said it before in other threads, but I think we have some serious tunnel vision going on when it comes to our defense vs other teams. If you watch more than just the Preds you will discover that everyone gives up breakaways and everyone gives up high danger shots. We aren't wildly worse than anyone else in that regard, it's just that it's our team so we pick it apart more.

At the end of the day the rest of the guys on the ice can't stop every single chance, they are going to give up odd man rushes, and some times the other team is just going to have some very good players that make very good plays. The job of the goalie is to make up for those breakdowns when they happen, and frankly for us that is where part of the problem lies.

Rinne simply hasn't been making the timely save for the most part. He isn't bailing us out, and in some cases with his poor positioning and sliding rebound control this season has actually made the problem worse at times.

Is it all his fault? No, you can only be expected to stop so much. However, at times it feels like every single mistake goes into the back of the net, which simply can not happen, especially when you are paying that guy the kind of money we are paying him.

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03-14-2017, 08:25 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
Where did you get your numbers? Last I saw (has been a little bit since I checked) Preds were 7th in high danger shots allowed/60. They are also 5th in expected goals against. In any case, the defense is doing a very good job overall, this is all between the pipes. The people shouting from the rooftops that the Preds give up way too many chances, etc. are absolutely crazy. They actually compare very, very favorably across the league in chances and High Danger chances.



Wrong. The Preds are very good at limiting high danger chances and have the 5th lowest expected goals against (which is, in my opinion, pretty much the best current measure of defensive play in the advanced stats world). Watch around the league and you'll see just as many chances (Actually more on average unless you're watching one of 4 or 5 superior teams) allowed by other teams, difference is pretty much literally every goalie in the league is better than Rinne at stopping them.
Goaltender stats on Corsica. Among starters, Rinne is 17th in HD SA, but dead last in HD Sv%, 70.1 percent. Compare to Devan Dubnyk, who leads the league at 91%. League average is about 85%.

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03-14-2017, 08:35 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by nomorekids View Post
Goaltender stats on Corsica. Among starters, Rinne is 17th in HD SA, but dead last in HD Sv%, 70.1 percent. Compare to Devan Dubnyk, who leads the league at 91%. League average is about 85%.
Oh, I see, that's the amount Rinne has faced, not a per 60 number. Makes sense he would be around 17 given the amount of games he's played. Thanks. Further highlights that the Preds are good at limiting high danger shots, Rinne is tied for 10th in games played, is 17th in high danger shots faced. Again, goaltending problem, not a defense or system problem.

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03-14-2017, 09:40 PM
  #106
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So you guys are arguing that basically if we had even a half decent starting tender we be waltzing to the President's Cup?

Seriously, at some point you need to take your fancy stats and tell us Luddites how many more wins this team would have I'd we had whoever the median goalie is in your rankings.

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03-14-2017, 09:57 PM
  #107
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So according to the schedule on NHL.com and the NHL mobile app, as of this post the game on Thursday vs the Capitals is currently scheduled for 9PM our time. That's not right is it?

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03-14-2017, 10:33 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
So you guys are arguing that basically if we had even a half decent starting tender we be waltzing to the President's Cup?

Seriously, at some point you need to take your fancy stats and tell us Luddites how many more wins this team would have I'd we had whoever the median goalie is in your rankings.
No one said that, but it's a fact that the team would win more games if the goaltender was league average against tough shots. If a team puts up 10 high danger shots in a game on a league average goalie, you're looking at 1, maybe 2 goals. If they put up 10 on Rinne, you can pretty much bank on 3 goals. You don't see a problem there?

I wouldn't harp on Rinne so much if people like you weren't so quick to place the blame elsewhere and make excuses for the guy. He's awful, if we'll all accept that, I'll be happy to move on.

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03-14-2017, 10:33 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
So according to the schedule on NHL.com and the NHL mobile app, as of this post the game on Thursday vs the Capitals is currently scheduled for 9PM our time. That's not right is it?
the Score app has it at 6PM central

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03-14-2017, 10:35 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
No one said that, but it's a fact that the team would win more games if the goaltender was league average against tough shots. If a team puts up 10 high danger shots in a game on a league average goalie, you're looking at 1, maybe 2 goals. If they put up 10 on Rinne, you can pretty much bank on 3 goals. You don't see a problem there?

I wouldn't harp on Rinne so much if people like you weren't so quick to place the blame elsewhere and make excuses for the guy. He's awful, if we'll all accept that, I'll be happy to move on.
He is absolutely NOT "awful" and its ridiculous to say so.

There is no way in hell a team with an "awful" goaltender is a playoff team. Its simply incredulous to hear(read) someone use such a pejorative term.

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03-14-2017, 10:39 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
So you guys are arguing that basically if we had even a half decent starting tender we be waltzing to the President's Cup?

Seriously, at some point you need to take your fancy stats and tell us Luddites how many more wins this team would have I'd we had whoever the median goalie is in your rankings.
I know basically nothing about advanced hockey stats, but if you bump Rinne from 76% to 85% on high danger shots (trusting that as the league average), he allows 17 fewer goals. That would put our goal differential at +26, which would slot between Montreal (86 points, +17) and San Jose (89 points, +32). So unscientifically in the 7-10 points range.

That's very much a back of napkin calculation though, and those totals aren't guaranteed to be up to the minute (used Corsica.hockey and sportsclubstats, which looks like is only through yesterday).

Some obvious problems are that high danger shots likely generate extra chances when saved, so you're probably not getting all 17 of those back (but if 25% still end up as goals, we'd still be between Montreal and San Jose). Also our abysmal OT record has to have us underperforming our goal differential at least somewhat, although with fewer goals allowed, we likely go to less OT games, or possibly don't give up some of the OT game winners. So that could be a wash.

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03-14-2017, 10:41 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
He is absolutely NOT "awful" and its ridiculous to say so.

There is no way in hell a team with an "awful" goaltender is a playoff team. Its simply incredulous to hear(read) someone use such a pejorative term.
Alright, make an argument that Rinne is not at least in the bottom 1/3 of starting goalies and not miles behind the league elite, I'm all ears.

Michael Leighton was a Stanley Cup goalie. More than half the teams in the league make the playoffs, an awful goalie can absolutely be dragged to the playoffs. Dallas won the division with an awful duo last year (though Lehtonen was much better than Rinne against high danger shots and at even strength in general).

Also, to the above, Rinne is 70% on those shots, not 76%. Shockingly bad, I know.

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03-14-2017, 10:59 PM
  #113
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I pulled the stats from Corsica.hockey (no clue how they are but just saw them cited ITT). It's also only 5-on-5 even strength, so with PK/PP/OT/etc. included it's 26 goals, again keeping the 85% as average (which could change based on the situations). Would put us ahead of Chicago and San Jose in goal differential, behind Pittsburgh and NYR.

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03-14-2017, 11:30 PM
  #114
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And for those that say the Preds allow a ton of shots right in front of Rinne, this chart might be of some interest...



Here's Chicago...




But yeah, Rinne totally faces a ton of shots from right in front and in close, that explains it

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Old
03-15-2017, 07:17 AM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfatcat999 View Post

just a note. Stl's schedule is pretty easy from here on out but for lak it's not that great. Lak's schedule:

rest of this week: Arz & buf at home easy.

Preds have a 7 pt buffer on the kings. I'm not as scared about making the playoffs.
super easy

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03-15-2017, 07:23 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
the Score app has it at 6PM central
See attached. As of this posting, Pred's website shows 9PM Central.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg screenshot.30.jpg‎ (366.6 KB, 5 views)

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03-15-2017, 07:33 AM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
See attached. As of this posting, Pred's website shows 9PM Central.
And the Caps site has 10 pm eastern.

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03-15-2017, 08:10 AM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortiest Morty View Post
And for those that say the Preds allow a ton of shots right in front of Rinne, this chart might be of some interest...


:
one thing this graph does show is the abnormally large number of dangerous shots the preds give up in the mid to high slot and the top of the faceoff circles.... two areas assosicated with forward/centerman defensive coverage...

it actually does a good job illustrating that 'much' of our defensive problems are from forward defensive failings and not primarily defenseman coverage problems down very low in and and around the blue ice (which the chiago one seems to do).

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03-15-2017, 08:36 AM
  #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
See attached. As of this posting, Pred's website shows 9PM Central.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FossilFndr View Post
that's insane. I cant imagine a game starting at 10P local, even for national TV, or to avoid a conflict with the NCAA.

gotta be an error

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03-15-2017, 08:43 AM
  #120
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Time to look at Sports Club Stats again:

The Preds currently have an 89.647% chance of making the playoffs. The most likely scenario from their 5.4 billion-plus replays is a 7-5-1 record, which would put us (most likely, at 40%) in the #3 spot in the division. The likelihood of us finishing with the first Wild Card is 31%; 19% for the second.

Chicago is our most likely 1st round opponent at 37.6%; Minnesota is at 32.6% while San Jose is at 18.5%. The other three teams (Anaheim, Calgary, and Edmonton) are at less than 0.3%.

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03-15-2017, 08:58 AM
  #121
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
that's insane. I cant imagine a game starting at 10P local, even for national TV, or to avoid a conflict with the NCAA.

gotta be an error
TSN's website says 7 Eastern. Yeah, nhl.com says 10 Eastern and there's absolutely no way that's true.

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03-15-2017, 09:09 AM
  #122
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Quote:
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TSN's website says 7 Eastern. Yeah, nhl.com says 10 Eastern and there's absolutely no way that's true.
Just went to 'buy' Caps tickets and that shows a 7 pm eastern game

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03-15-2017, 09:12 AM
  #123
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TSN's website says 7 Eastern. Yeah, nhl.com says 10 Eastern and there's absolutely no way that's true.
My sister is going to the game. I'll get her to find out "for sure" what time it is.

nhl.com or espn was probably where the error arose and other sites and apps just pulled the information from there. My calendar program has it twice, once at 6 - 9 and the other at 9 - 11.15. It has every game twice, I don't know how to fix it.

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03-15-2017, 09:56 AM
  #124
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03-15-2017, 10:20 AM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
So you guys are arguing that basically if we had even a half decent starting tender we be waltzing to the President's Cup?

Seriously, at some point you need to take your fancy stats and tell us Luddites how many more wins this team would have I'd we had whoever the median goalie is in your rankings.
I think with a goaltender that's not Rinne, we would likely have another 4-5 wins, at a minimum. I don't know why I'm saying this, because you'll just say "that's ridiculous," but we're talking about someone that is breaking down by all measures -- advanced, traditional, and the good old fashioned eye test. He is, by far, our weakest link right now, and has been basically since he came back from hip surgery. Now, that also lined up with Mitch Korn leaving, so maybe that's part of it too, but Rinne's "elite" days are well behind him at this point. He's closer statistically to Kari Lehtonen, Robin Lehner than he is say -- Carey Price, Devan Dubnyk, etc.

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