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Old
03-14-2017, 03:35 PM
  #151
Byrddog
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
I never thought the Blues were out. In fact I expected them as a top 3. The only reason Hitch got fired was their goaltending was terrible and lost them several games in a row.


and to Cashville's comment, All the Kings need is 4 wins more than us in these final 14 games. They also have a game in hand on us. So if they win their game in hand, they are 5 points back meaning 3 more wins than us gets them there and we are sitting on the outside.

Also I should point out, we have a very very tough schedule to close the year. Just some of the games listed below.

Washington
Calgary (10 straight wins)
San Jose
NY Islanders (When was the last time we won there)
Boston (Always a very hard match up with us)
Toronto
Minnesota (1-3 against them so far this year)
St. Louis (yes we have beaten them 3 times this year, but they are hot right now)
NY Islanders
Winnipeg (as we saw last night, anything can happen against this team)
I agree with you The strength of schedule the Preds has makes no difference to me really. They go out and beat teams easily that should be tough games and struggle the next game like last nights game. I would like to think they can get it together enough to have no worries but again and again this year they have shown no consistency. They could put a 4 game win streak together just as simply as a 6 game losing streak. I know this St Louis has 7 as close to sure bet wins as one could imagine against Colorado, Phoenix and Vancouver and that just finished beating the Elfs and Caps. The Kings will win 10 of there remaining games pretty surely and they have some tough games. I doubt the last spot is settled before the last few games.

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Old
03-14-2017, 03:39 PM
  #152
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So the Kings, who are 5-3-2 in they're last 10 are going to win 10 out of the final 15?

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Old
03-14-2017, 04:44 PM
  #153
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There's a big difference between what can happen, and what is likely to happen. The playoff probability dynamic comes up every year. Borrowing a post I made last year, as of March 9th in the season, Ottawa in 2015 overcame the greatest deficit in a decade to make the playoffs; that deficit was 5 points.

https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/i...s-all-but-over

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Since 2005-06, the standings on March 9 have been 95.1 percent accurate (137 of 144) at predicting the playoffs during 82-game seasons. Four of the nine seasons featured zero change to the top eight teams in each conference, four others saw one team bump another and the 2008-09 campaign featured three teams emerge from the back of the pack to clinch a postseason berth.

The seven teams since 2005-06 that pulled off the feat over that time were an average of 2.85 points out of a playoff spot; last season's Ottawa Senators overcame the greatest deficit in nearly a decade—five points—and all it took was a 13-3-2 finish to claim a wild-card spot.

In the nine seasons between 1995-96 and 2003-04, just 10 teams (93.1 percent) overtook a team in a postseason spot if they were out on March 9. Those seasons are before the NHL instituted the shootout and include four seasons without a loser point. For nearly 20 years, the NHL has shown that when teams have about one-sixth of their schedule remaining, only about six percent of teams have gone from out to in during that time.
Winnipeg was out before last night's game and is...extra out now; the outcomes needed to give them a playoff berth are beyond three standard deviations from the mean (i.e. less than 0.2% chance of occurring). LA has the same number of GP as STL and is 5 points behind them. Their record over the final 14 games would need to be close to Ottawa's from the article above in terms of win %. The LA board has their own "how many points do we need to make the playoffs?" thread; the latest update after last night's game is a 790 win% to surpass STL assuming STL's win % remains in line with its season average.

Can this happen? Sure. Will it happen? Very unlikely. There are some scheduling oddities that can skew this figure; LA plays EDM three times in their last 14 games and is 7 points behind EDM. If they win all three games in regulation, the math changes, but at EDM's expense primarily.

I'm not sitting on my laurels here saying we're good to go, but from a purely statistical point of view, LA making it at this point in the season given their record would be very unlikely from a statistical perspective.


Last edited by Cashville: 03-14-2017 at 04:59 PM.
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Old
03-14-2017, 05:06 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Preds33 View Post
All the Kings need is 4 wins more than us in these final 14 games. They also have a game in hand on us. So if they win their game in hand, they are 5 points back meaning 3 more wins than us gets them there and we are sitting on the outside.
LA couldn't score more than one goal last night in their most important game of the season, against the most realistic team for them to catch (STL). Despite the return of Quick and arrivals of Bishop and Iginla, they're further out of the playoff picture now than they were before. They also have one of the toughest remaining schedules. The chance of them outscoring 4 more teams than the Preds over the next 14 games is very slim. That doesn't mean that the Preds should take it easy, but they're very much in the driver's seat.

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Old
03-14-2017, 05:15 PM
  #155
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Trigg I know you do not watch any other team than the Preds you admitted that long ago. But the Kings 10 games ago did not have Johnathan Quick and his back-up Ben Bishop. They had Peter Frickin Bujaj and a scrub. So yes just as Calgary has rattled off 10 the Kings are just as capable this time of year especially.

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Old
03-14-2017, 06:50 PM
  #156
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I don't watch a lot of other teams, and hell I barely get to watch anything not recorded, the Kings though, are often on late so I do get to see them some, there problem hasn't been the goalie, they can't score, one of the lowest scoring teams in the West.

But , we'll, you're the expert..


Last edited by triggrman: 03-14-2017 at 08:57 PM.
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Old
03-14-2017, 08:44 PM
  #157
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If we can get around 14 points out of our remaining 26 points left, we should be good to make the playoffs w/ a very tiny cushion. So if we can win a little over half the remaining of our games or a combination of that, I feel we are good. Not an easy task but doable. LA would then have to win 11 of it's remaining 14 games to pass us if that is the case, which would be an even more daunting task. Not impossible but very daunting.

So even if we lose we should try to get a point at least out of our games as every point will be important in this last stretch.


Last edited by klt2001: 03-14-2017 at 09:12 PM.
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Old
03-14-2017, 09:18 PM
  #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Byrddog View Post
So yes just as Calgary has rattled off 10 the Kings are just as capable this time of year especially.
So could the Preds or the Blues or any other good team fighting for a playoff spot.

Let's just for the sake of argument say the Kings go 11-0 in their next 11 games. That would take them to 94 points in 79 games. To match them in points we would need to go 6-2-2 over our next 10 games to get to the same number of points in the same number of games.

What's our record over our last 10? You guessed it, 6-2-2.

Consider our opponents in that span as well.

vs Colorado
vs Washington
vs Edmonton
@ Buffalo
@ Montreal
vs Chicago
@ Anaheim
@ Los Angeles
@ San Jose
vs Winnipeg

Not exactly the little sisters of the poor there.

Now consider our next 10 opponents.

@ Washington
@ Carolina
vs Arizona
vs Calgary
vs San Jose
@ New York Islanders
@ Boston
vs Toronto
vs Minnesota
@ St. Louis

Looks about the same in difficulty as the last 10 games where we went 6-2-2.

So let's go down and say they go 6-4-0 while Los Angeles, despite their negative goal differential and difficulty scoring defy all odds and go on an 11 game winning streak.

That would leave Los Angeles with 94 points and us with 91 with 3 games left. While playoff odds would probably be around 20-30% for us, we would have the advantage in schedule the final 3 games with a home game against the Islanders and road games against the Stars and Jets. Los Angeles would have home games with the Flames and Blackhawks (possibly fighting for division title) and a road game to finish the year against the Ducks who would love to knock the Kings out of the playoffs if it came down to it.

So even in the Kings best case scenario and us being slightly worse over the next 10 games than our last 10, we would still have an opportunity to beat out the Kings in the playoffs.

I'll worry about the Kings when they get within 2 points of us with a game in hand.

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Old
03-14-2017, 09:50 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by klt2001 View Post
If we can get around 14 points out of our remaining 26 points left, we should be good to make the playoffs w/ a very tiny cushion. So if we can win a little over half the remaining of our games or a combination of that, I feel we are good. Not an easy task but doable. LA would then have to win 11 of it's remaining 14 games to pass us if that is the case, which would be an even more daunting task. Not impossible but very daunting.

So even if we lose we should try to get a point at least out of our games as every point will be important in this last stretch.
I still think 90 points is good for WC2 and all we need is 5-7-1 to get there. LA would have to go 9-5-0 to catch us.

if we go 7-5-1 LA has to go 11-3.

I like our chances.

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Old
03-14-2017, 09:52 PM
  #160
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Also if we can't muster around 12-14 points out of our reminder 26 points, then to be honest I rather us not make the playoffs anyways as we wouldn't be good enough to get far in the playoffs anyways.

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Old
03-14-2017, 09:53 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
I still think 90 points is good for WC2 and all we need is 5-7-1 to get there. LA would have to go 9-5-0 to catch us.

if we go 7-5-1 LA has to go 11-3.

I like our chances.

Me too. I was just using that number to be on the safer side.

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Old
03-14-2017, 10:01 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by klt2001 View Post
Also if we can't muster around 12-14 points out of our reminder 26 points, then to be honest I rather us not make the playoffs anyways as we wouldn't be good enough to get far in the playoffs anyways.
While I would say I agreed with you. Making the playoffs is important for a team as young as this one and for attracting free agents.

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Old
03-14-2017, 10:05 PM
  #163
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While I would say I agreed with you. Making the playoffs is important for a team as young as this one and for attracting free agents.
True I agree but I would still say it would be a weak team going into the playoffs and the chances of that team going far in the playoffs while not impossible would be slime.

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Old
03-15-2017, 12:41 AM
  #164
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Well, the Kings just dropped one point against Arizona

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