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What's wrong with Devan Dubnyk?

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Old
03-19-2017, 07:54 PM
  #26
Hockeyisl1fe
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Originally Posted by Grey Poupon View Post
I think you need to be at least a 920 goalie to give your team a shot. When he was 940, he was playing out of this world. He'all recover, I'm sure. I think he's at least a 920 keeper.
Exactly. He was playing over his level in the first half and now under.

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Old
03-19-2017, 07:57 PM
  #27
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All the Minnesota Wild fans that have been mocking things like "PDO" and "regression" are getting their expected reckoning from the hockey gods

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Old
03-19-2017, 08:40 PM
  #28
nhlfan9191
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He was a product of a system. Holtby is the same thing. Both of those guys are very good goalies but their teams have more to do with their success then anything. Bobrovsky and Price are the only ones who have shown they can actually carry teams.

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Old
03-19-2017, 08:42 PM
  #29
Sam Spade
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I don't know but his recent play has made the Vezina a two man race now.

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Old
03-19-2017, 08:42 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Raccoon Jesus View Post
All the Minnesota Wild fans that have been mocking things like "PDO" and "regression" are getting their expected reckoning from the hockey gods
/thread

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Old
03-19-2017, 08:43 PM
  #31
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What's wrong with him? It's hard to, if not impossible to sustain a .940+ save percentage over a full season. That's what's wrong with him.

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Old
03-19-2017, 08:50 PM
  #32
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He was overplayed early and BB calling him out on national TV when it was not his fault was a terrible choice. He will get it going again. Better now than the playoffs.

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Old
03-19-2017, 08:50 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raccoon Jesus View Post
All the Minnesota Wild fans that have been mocking things like "PDO" and "regression" are getting their expected reckoning from the hockey gods
nah man they are just taking really high qUality shots.

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Old
03-19-2017, 09:01 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Nithoniniel View Post
Metrics that take quality of chances against into account indicate that Dubnyk isn't as great as normal save percentage indicate, but that Wild are terrific at minimizing amount of quality chances per shot.

If one accepts that premise, then you might see a big effect if the team started to play sloppy in that regard all of a sudden. But I don't have the insight into this team to really say anything about whether this might be a feasible theory.
Eye test pretty much confirms this theory. Wild is giving up more quality chances and Dubnyk has fallen back to Earth.

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Old
03-19-2017, 09:45 PM
  #35
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He's Devan Dubnyk, an average goaltender. That is what is wrong with him. He's no Price.

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Old
03-19-2017, 10:22 PM
  #36
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There's a reason goalies rarely crack .930sv% if they play over 55 games.

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03-19-2017, 11:41 PM
  #37
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Dubnyk's stats have always been inflated. He has a very high save percentage because he has one of the worst non-traditional goalie abilities in the league and gives up so many quality chances by himself alone. That's what sets Dubnyk's best season with the Oilers and Talbot's current two seasons with the Oilers apart. Talbot actually helps prevent unnecessary chances and helps the defense, whereas Dubnyk makes the defenseman's lives more difficult even if he does make a lot of great saves.

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Old
03-20-2017, 12:22 AM
  #38
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law of averages...pretty simple

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Old
03-20-2017, 12:33 AM
  #39
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ive never been impressed by him, his positioning or his puck tracking ability. he's good, but not 940+ good. its only reality coming back

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Old
03-20-2017, 01:11 AM
  #40
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Im pretty sure its his face.

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Old
03-20-2017, 01:15 AM
  #41
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The way she goes

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Old
03-20-2017, 01:18 AM
  #42
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It's almost like the team in front of a goalie matters.

Who would have thought?

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Old
03-20-2017, 01:22 AM
  #43
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Played way above his head, now he's regressing to what he really is, a average goalie with a good defensive system. The only question is if the Wild will lose in the first or second round this year.

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03-20-2017, 02:09 AM
  #44
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This thread... All you regression stat beasts go check high danger scoring changes, 2-1s and slot shots. Most of you can't even calculate the regression.

Pants changed Feb 4th:

Dubnyk Feb 4th - March 20th .912 2.68 19games

Dubnyk Jan 1st - Feb 4th .910 2.58 10games

Pants don't seem to be the reason. Also Kuemper is full 2% lower Sv during the same time frame.

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Old
03-20-2017, 03:06 AM
  #45
JaegerDice
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Does anybody remember the Wild the season they picked up Dubnyk?

They started the year off solid, but then their goaltending struggled. They responded by completely losing their ****, the players lost faith in and abandonned their system and they went completely off the cliff.

Then Dubnyk comes in, keeps goals out, the team collects themselves, gets back to their system, goes on a long run thanks to all around solid play from the goaltender out.

Its happening again. Dubnyk may be slumping, anf the team was due a pdo regression, but the team in front of him is making it worse. Instead of remaining calm, sticking to the system, playing through the lull, they lose their **** and are a complete fire drill out there.

They have zero resiliency.

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Old
03-20-2017, 03:18 AM
  #46
Man Bear Pig
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Originally Posted by the edler View Post
It's almost like the team in front of a goalie matters.

Who would have thought?
That's the difference between elite goalies and just good ones. A guy like Price was ridiculous for years in front of a mediocre defense. Good goalies are only as good as the D in front of them.

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Old
03-20-2017, 05:18 AM
  #47
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Nothing wrong with him. This is who he is.

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Old
03-20-2017, 05:43 AM
  #48
Vali Maki Sushi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nhlfan9191 View Post
He was a product of a system. Holtby is the same thing. Both of those guys are very good goalies but their teams have more to do with their success then anything. Bobrovsky and Price are the only ones who have shown they can actually carry teams.
Not even close, Holtby's glove hand, reading the play, moving the puck, etc. is all elite and he's actually responsible for eliminating a lot of mistakes that the Caps make and helps start breakouts. Dubnyk is very system like goalie i agree, and the funniest thing is Dubnyk is one of the worst goalies in the league in giving up secondary high danger chances, yet he faces the lowest HDSA/60 5 on 5, meaning Wild's defense is super underrateed.

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Old
03-20-2017, 05:57 AM
  #49
nhlfan9191
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Originally Posted by RainierBeat View Post
Not even close, Holtby's glove hand, reading the play, moving the puck, etc. is all elite and he's actually responsible for eliminating a lot of mistakes that the Caps make and helps start breakouts. Dubnyk is very system like goalie i agree, and the funniest thing is Dubnyk is one of the worst goalies in the league in giving up secondary high danger chances, yet he faces the lowest HDSA/60 5 on 5, meaning Wild's defense is super underrateed.
I think we see the same thing when it comes to Dubnyk. I'll always have a soft spot for Braden because we went to high school together and had the same ring of friends. But he's been riding that Washington team to the top since Trotz took over. If it wasn't for the wins record last year, Bishop wins the vezina, he is a very good goalie like I said, and the parts of his game you pointed out are part of what makes him so good. But until I see him play on a mediocre team and see how he actually faces adversity, my opinion on him will stay the same.

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