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The Business of Hockey Discuss the financial and business aspects of the NHL. Topics may include the CBA, work stoppages, broadcast contracts, franchise sales, NHL revenues, relocation and expansion.

Phoenix CXXVI: Clowns to the left of me... jokers to the right...

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Old
04-06-2017, 04:09 PM
  #1
Killion
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Phoenix CXXVI: Clowns to the left of me... jokers to the right...

... and..... thanks to TFP & madhi for the title.... most appropriate....carry on!


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04-06-2017, 04:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madhi19 View Post
Definitively Phoenix CXXVI: Stuck in Desert with You

.... Stealers Wheel... round & round & round & round & round & round & round....

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04-06-2017, 04:28 PM
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Originally Posted by mesamonster
What has always perplexed me is the notion that somehow this franchise represents a business opportunity? Perhaps you could enlighten all of us as to what the metrics would look like for this to become an investment opportunity that actually makes sense. The opportunity as I understand it would first involve a minimum of $200MM upfront and would have to generate enough profitability to support those capital costs? The second business opportunity would involve the ultimate relocation of the franchise, or sale in market to a buyer willing to pay Andy (or someone else) a premium over their cost.

Legend, you continue to talk as though there is some economic benefit available to those willing to risk capital on this franchise, as far as i can look I see no viable business and therefore no new capital and certainly no new buyers.
There are many ways to get to $200M, some even include paying little to no cash. A prospective owner could assume most of the debt of the minority owners and probably get pretty close to that valuation. If someone were interested in retail development, they could look at this as a commercial transaction. Either they help get a new arena/develpment in the East Valley or they flip the franchise for re-location a year from now. If they assume some debt in the process, it may not be a problem if they are really wealthy. That loss could just be used as tax write-offs for years to come.

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04-06-2017, 04:30 PM
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Dirty Old Man
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Originally Posted by Killion View Post
.... Stealers Wheel.......
(first time I ever got an MRI: "you can't move a muscle for 20 minutes. here's some headphones so you can at least listen to some music" ... first song that plays? ^^. Har, har, har thanks guys)

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04-06-2017, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mesamonster
What has always perplexed me is the notion that somehow this franchise represents a business opportunity? Perhaps you could enlighten all of us as to what the metrics would look like for this to become an investment opportunity that actually makes sense. The opportunity as I understand it would first involve a minimum of $200MM upfront and would have to generate enough profitability to support those capital costs? The second business opportunity would involve the ultimate relocation of the franchise, or sale in market to a buyer willing to pay Andy (or someone else) a premium over their cost.

Legend, you continue to talk as though there is some economic benefit available to those willing to risk capital on this franchise, as far as i can look I see no viable business and therefore no new capital and certainly no new buyers.

Uh.... no. I just look at what possibilities there are.

If a person wants to know why someone would invest in the franchise at this stage you'd have to ask them. Or one can just continue to sit back and stay pessimistic about everything at every turn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg
You could be right...

If I'm looking to build a $500 million arena and I let it known that I'm only putting in $180 - $200 million, that's just not going to sell with a lot of gov'ts and taxpayers these days. It doesn't look like I'm willing to put a lot of skin in the game... But, for the same arena if I'm willing to put in $300 million, that shows commitment on my part and that I'm looking for a partnership with gov't and not a handout.

So maybe more money will do it,,, but one thing I would still be concerned about is the statement from IA that it will cost ~$25 million to run the place every year. That number just doesn't make sense and has that "subsidy" smell all over it.
I've never been truly sure what that $24.4 million is about other than it might have involved more than just an arena. Unless by some miracle that ASU got involved again (my tin foil hat scenario I referred to earlier. ), you'd probably be looking at a smaller project and that figure would be much less at this point.


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04-06-2017, 05:01 PM
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Tom ServoMST3K
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ugh, just twiddling our thumbs waiting for this ownership re-shuffle to finalize is pretty boring.

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04-06-2017, 05:34 PM
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The Feckless Puck
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... and..... thanks to madhi for the title.... most appropriate....carry on!
Look, Killion, I generally try not to toot my own horn, but I've come up with the last half-dozen megathread titles (including this one!) and as a Coyotes fan I need to take what small victories I can!

"Clowns to the left of me... jokers to the right..."

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Originally Posted by TheLegend View Post
I've never been truly sure what that $24.4 million is about other than it might have involved more than just an arena. Unless by some miracle that ASU got involved again (my tin foil hat scenario I referred to earlier. ), you'd probably be looking at a smaller project and that figure would be much less at this point.
I don't think IA is going to back away from that "operating cost." They've learned a lot about how to hide subsidies since the Goldwater Institute's involvement six years ago.

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ugh, just twiddling our thumbs waiting for this ownership re-shuffle to finalize is pretty boring.
The calm before the storm...

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04-06-2017, 05:47 PM
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Killion
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Look, Killion, I generally try not to toot my own horn, but I've come up with the last half-dozen megathread titles (including this one!) and as a Coyotes fan I need to take what small victories I can!

"Clowns to the left of me... jokers to the right..."
.... oh gosh, sorry Feck, clearly I missed that earlier reference in one of your posts.... so... you get the 'V' for Valor & Victory... shared with madhi, and in good company ya be.

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04-06-2017, 05:48 PM
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.... oh gosh, sorry Feck, clearly I missed that earlier reference in one of your posts.... so... you get the 'V' for Valor & Victory... shared with madhi, and in good company ya be.
Don't get me wrong - madhi's advocacy helped sway the choice, so I will gladly share the credit with him!

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04-06-2017, 05:51 PM
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Killion
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Originally Posted by The Feckless Puck View Post
Don't get me wrong - madhi's advocacy helped sway the choice, so I will gladly share the credit with him!
... yep... you boys can tug on the V shaped wishbone... you get the bigger piece, Coyotes stay... mahdi wins, team moves to Quebec.... so it shall be.

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04-06-2017, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom ServoMST3K View Post
ugh, just twiddling our thumbs waiting for this ownership re-shuffle to finalize is pretty boring.
Don't give up hope on the house. It is still possible!

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04-06-2017, 05:55 PM
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madhi19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom ServoMST3K View Post
ugh, just twiddling our thumbs waiting for this ownership re-shuffle to finalize is pretty boring.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Feckless Puck View Post
The calm before the storm...
I do feel that once the shuffling is done we get a better look at who was pulling for what. Was the new arena idea something pushed by IA or Barroway? Off course the more entertaining outcome is if neither side got the cash to buy the other out. Now that would be funny.

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04-06-2017, 05:59 PM
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... yep... you boys can tug on the V shaped wishbone... you get the bigger piece, Coyotes stay... mahdi wins, team moves to Quebec.... so it shall be.
Those are the best odds I've had in 8 years. I'll take it!

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Originally Posted by madhi19 View Post
I do feel that once the shuffling is done we get a better look at who was pulling for what. Was the new arena idea something pushed by IA or Barroway? Off course the more entertaining outcome is if neither side got the cash to buy the other out. Now that would be funny.
That's the most likely scenario, but I'm with you - I'm legit interested to see the outcome if one or the other side gets bought out. So many questions. What happens to Drummond either way? Will we find out what the philosophical differences between the two groups were? Does the Tim Horton's franchise stay at GRA? THESE ARE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS!

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04-06-2017, 06:01 PM
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Killion
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Off course the more entertaining outcome is if neither side got the cash to buy the other out. Now that would be funny.
Yep, and I'd bet you Bettman had this thing absolutely telegraphed, nailed, having a good laugh over it himself the little Dickens.

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04-06-2017, 06:27 PM
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Yep, and I'd bet you Bettman had this thing absolutely telegraphed, nailed, having a good laugh over it himself the little Dickens.
Of all the outcome of this saga Garry Bettman getting the DOJ perp walk "a la Madof" would not really shock me. So maybe he did set this whole thing up to fail on his timetable. It's not really the first time a less than ideal ownership group was put together, only to be replaced with somebody with real money at the first chance. See Tampa. The big wildcard is what do you dangle to grab that guy with real wealth?

Vinik would never have put a cent in the Bolt if he did not get a crapload of cheap land in the deal. You can grab some wannabe "nouveau riche" group of guys with a AMF, but if you want real wealth you need a bigger bait.

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04-06-2017, 06:51 PM
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Of all the outcome of this saga Garry Bettman getting the DOJ perp walk "a la Madof" would not really shock me. So maybe he did set this whole thing up to fail on his timetable. It's not really the first time a less than ideal ownership group was put together, only to be replaced with somebody with real money at the first chance. See Tampa. The big wildcard is what do you dangle to grab that guy with real wealth?

Vinik would never have put a cent in the Bolt if he did not get a crapload of cheap land in the deal. You can grab some wannabe "nouveau riche" group of guys with a AMF, but if you want real wealth you need a bigger bait.
Precisely. And your Vinik analogy or comparison bang-on..... so.... if the Leagues & certainly IceArizonas' relationship with the COG wasnt so messed up & fractured... and when you consider that Westgate isnt even 1/3rd complete in terms of build-out from the original conception... and with the market finally starting to recover & showing signs of promise in the West Valley... if IA/NHL wasnt so thick-headed & obstinate and had a good relationship with the City then it would seem to me there would in fact be plenty to talk about in designing a nice big fat lure with the almost always overly generous municipality pursuant to Westgate's completion.... But no, theyve not only written them off, alienated the City, poisoned the well. Cant see the forest for the tree's.

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04-07-2017, 08:29 AM
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Morgoth Bauglir
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... and..... thanks to TFP & madhi for the title.... most appropriate....carry on!
Did you come up with the Stealer's Wheel reference?

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04-07-2017, 09:06 AM
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Rumor Friday...

Apparently, with the shake-up at the top, and Andrew Barroway taking charge (maybe)...there has been talk recently that the last and final option in the Valley is with the Talking Stick tribe...

There is some...some movement in that the Coyotes would 'manage' a new arena...if the funding for it comes through with an additional partner (Frankel)...but the sticking point seems to be the surrounding revenue aspect in that the tribe wants to 'share' in the ownership of the new arena...and not give it all to the Coyotes...which number-wise...will not work...unless Frankel, or another Balkan-type player, gets involved...

Still...any new arena, with split ownership (Coyotes and Tribe), is still near dead...just like the bill in the legislation...which is just five days from ending...

Clowns to the left of me...jokers to the right...

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04-07-2017, 09:18 AM
  #19
Killion
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Originally Posted by Morgoth Bauglir View Post
Did you come up with the Stealer's Wheel reference?
.... why yes, yes I did.... band from Paisley, Scotland... Gerry Rafferty the main songwriter, creative spark who also had a successful solo career, best known hit being Baker Street and a discography of album titles custom made for this thread.... North & South... On a Wing and a Prayer.... Over My Head.... City to City.... Can I Have My Money Back?... Poor guy died in 2010, basically drank himself to death, something some of us are no doubt at risk of if this charade doesnt end soon and either real people with real money show up & buy the team, kiss & make~up with Glendale or sell off-market & move out of state. Insane. Neverending Story.

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04-07-2017, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Llama19 View Post
Rumor Friday...

Apparently, with the shake-up at the top, and Andrew Barroway taking charge (maybe)...there has been talk recently that the last and final option in the Valley is with the Talking Stick tribe...

There is some...some movement in that the Coyotes would 'manage' a new arena...if the funding for it comes through with an additional partner (Frankel)...but the sticking point seems to be the surrounding revenue aspect in that the tribe wants to 'share' in the ownership of the new arena...and not give it all to the Coyotes...which number-wise...will not work...unless Frankel, or another Balkan-type player, gets involved...

Still...any new arena, with split ownership (Coyotes and Tribe), is still near dead...just like the bill in the legislation...which is just five days from ending...

Clowns to the left of me...jokers to the right...
Well if this rumour is true, it does make allot of sense.

The 2 big issues working with the tribe IMO....or any third party developer is

a) The Coyotes would need to put more money into the project so getting a Frankel type player involved for at least more money than the rest of the clowns needs to be in place

b) The revenue split is always a deal breaker. If it's privately financed with the third party developer, it creates another mouth to feed so to day. Naturally, the other investors will want a rate of return on their investment. Otherwise, what's the point building a 3rd arena in the valley? It's the same reason why any bid to keep the Raiders in Oakland died.

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04-07-2017, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Killion View Post
.... why yes, yes I did.... band from Paisley, Scotland... Gerry Rafferty the main songwriter, creative spark who also had a successful solo career, best known hit being Baker Street and a discography of album titles custom made for this thread.... North & South... On a Wing and a Prayer.... Over My Head.... City to City and.... Can I Have My Money Back?... Poor guy died in 2010, basically drank himself to death, something some of us are no doubt at risk of if this charade doesnt end soon and either real people with real money show up & buy the team, kiss & make~up with Glendale or sell off-market & move out of state. Insane. Neverending Story.
Oh I know all about Rafferty Hell of a talent, sad it ended how it did. In fact, Stealer's Wheel broke up because of his boozing from what I've read

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04-07-2017, 09:23 AM
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Precisely. And your Vinik analogy or comparison bang-on..... so.... if the Leagues & certainly IceArizonas' relationship with the COG wasnt so messed up & fractured... and when you consider that Westgate isnt even 1/3rd complete in terms of build-out from the original conception... and with the market finally starting to recover & showing signs of promise in the West Valley... if IA/NHL wasnt so thick-headed & obstinate and had a good relationship with the City then it would seem to me there would in fact be plenty to talk about in designing a nice big fat lure with the almost always overly generous municipality pursuant to Westgate's completion.... But no, theyve not only written them off, alienated the City, poisoned the well. Cant see the forest for the tree's.
ok, here's a billion american dollars for you K, for free. only condition is that you have to buy the team and make a legitimate go of it there. let's say the NHL comes to their senses and wants $250M for it, all yours ... no clowns, no canadians with oil money, nobody else. so you have $750M mad money.

what do you do?

a) stay at GRA? for how long?
b) new marketing? like?
c) dig deep and buy Auston Matthews from the Leafs in a couple years?
d) play nice with Sarver?
e) coordinate with westgate
f) what else?

this is the sort of thing ive been hoping FOR YEARS would have actually happened ... to witness someone who knew what they were doing make a legitimate go. i thought it was actually possible with Jamison, but his pockets were a bit shallow and the league didnt seem all that serious with him for some reason.

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04-07-2017, 09:45 AM
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Killion
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Originally Posted by Mightygoose View Post
Well if this rumour is true, it does make allot of sense.

The 2 big issues working with the tribe IMO....or any third party developer is

a) The Coyotes would need to put more money into the project so getting a Frankel type player involved for at least more money than the rest of the clowns needs to be in place

b) The revenue split is always a deal breaker. If it's privately financed with the third party developer, it creates another mouth to feed so to day. Naturally, the other investors will want a rate of return on their investment. Otherwise, what's the point building a 3rd arena in the valley? It's the same reason why any bid to keep the Raiders in Oakland died.
.... and a 3rd... as an investor being asked to pony up tens of millions.... would you have the confidence in these guys (Barroway included) to make a success of the building & the team given their track record & serious case of the shorts? creating an even more difficult task with a new complex and a new arena when the market itself is already over-saturated? How do you get a return on your dollar when the Tribe will insist on an equitable & fair revenue split and... absent any massive on-going "Management Fee" how does any of it even begin to pencil out but for the very real possibility of yet another horror story?

.... 4th.... as the Native NA Tribes are Sovereign Nations (within a Nation) with their own Constitutions & Judiciary what happens if IA fails to deliver on revenues promised to the Tribe?... things get messy~ugly just a they did with Glendale and the already radicalized, hard ball and in many cases sharp as tacks Tribal Authority goes nuclear & locks out the team, seizes the building & any other adjoining infrastructure mid-season or at any other inopportune time, doesnt play powder~puff as the COG did but drops the gloves, shoots first, ask questions later, but those questions & concerns already answered with lack of performance, lack of transparency, promises broken, you lied.... kiss your investment goodbye and good luck ever seeing a dime of it again.

.... theres also 5ths, 6ths, 7ths... on & on.

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04-07-2017, 10:09 AM
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.... and a 3rd... as an investor being asked to pony up tens of millions.... would you have the confidence in these guys (Barroway included) to make a success of the building & the team given their track record & serious case of the shorts? creating an even more difficult task with a new complex and a new arena when the market itself is already over-saturated? How do you get a return on your dollar when the Tribe will insist on an equitable & fair revenue split and... absent any massive on-going "Management Fee" how does any of it even begin to pencil out but for the very real possibility of yet another horror story?

.... 4th.... as the Native NA Tribes are Sovereign Nations (within a Nation) with their own Constitutions & Judiciary what happens if IA fails to deliver on revenues promised to the Tribe?... things get messy~ugly just a they did with Glendale and the already radicalized, hard ball and in many cases sharp as tacks Tribal Authority goes nuclear & locks out the team, seizes the building & any other adjoining infrastructure mid-season or at any other inopportune time, doesnt play powder~puff as the COG did but drops the gloves, shoots first, ask questions later, but those questions & concerns already answered with lack of performance, lack of transparency, promises broken, you lied.... kiss your investment goodbye and good luck ever seeing a dime of it again.

.... theres also 5ths, 6ths, 7ths... on & on.
True...does not pencil out any number of ways...if trying to beat the Tribe at their own game...they are the house...control the odds of success...leaving the rest of the 'ownership' group at a disadvantage...hunting the couch cushions, again, for loose change...keep pumping that slot machine...hoping to cash-out...win the big jackpot...but alas...just running up more debt...

And speaking of 5ths...as far as what this ownership group can afford...is just a 5th of rotgut...

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04-07-2017, 10:12 AM
  #25
Killion
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Originally Posted by GuelphStormer View Post
ok, here's a billion american dollars for you K, for free. only condition is that you have to buy the team and make a legitimate go of it there. let's say the NHL comes to their senses and wants $250M for it, all yours ... no clowns, no canadians with oil money, nobody else. so you have $750M mad money.

what do you do?

a) stay at GRA? for how long?
b) new marketing? like?
c) dig deep and buy Auston Matthews from the Leafs in a couple years?
d) play nice with Sarver?
e) coordinate with westgate
f) what else?

this is the sort of thing ive been hoping FOR YEARS would have actually happened ... to witness someone who knew what they were doing make a legitimate go. i thought it was actually possible with Jamison, but his pockets were a bit shallow and the league didnt seem all that serious with him for some reason.
... fantasy time huh?.... ok, I'll play...

a) yep, kiss & make-up with Glendale, give it 7yrs, squeeze AEG out & craft an equitable AMC with the COG.
b) seriously amp'd up marketing, promotion, cross-promotions, direct consumer & sponsorship sales.... Boiler Room included, and I mean Vipers. Alec Baldwin type in charge. You want Leads? Heres the phone book. Start dialing Slick.
c) no, just wait n' see on that one. and if that means waiting in vain or until he's a UFA so be it.
d) no, Sarver, the NBA = The Enemy. Game on Buddy. Goin after your sponsors, your bookings, bringing in House of Blues, LiveNation, all bolstered by my own in-house team.
e) yes, coordinate with Westgate & through negotiations with the COG pickup all the marbles Ellman dropped & start building again, including the revival of Sportsmans Park with the Bidwills & if they dont wanna play nice with us? So be it. You want a Parking War etc etc? Bring it. New Sheriff in town.
f) oh, all kinds of "other stuff".... Guerilla Marketing of the kind you dont acknowledge as having authored or approved. Full range of activities GS.

Totally embrace the State, City, Valley of the Sun on every level. Culturally, socially etc. Hire an offensively minded Coach & GM, ice a team with some Hot Tamale's and that would include a couple of Psych Jobs. On & on. Tell the public "look, weve got 5yrs to resurrect the patient, were working 24/7-365, you people need to step up to the plate & vote with your wallets" and set Goals for Seasons Tickets on a graduated scale, include Mini-Packs & so on & so forth, comfortable terms etc etc etc.

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