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NHL 2017 Entry Draft - Part II

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Old
04-10-2017, 12:48 AM
  #51
Mortimer Snerd
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Originally Posted by portamoral View Post
i really don't care about the lesser competition arguments. he can flat out play and it doesn't take better players surrounding him to see that or project him. he'd be doing nearly the same thing in the CHL too.
It takes better players against him.

I think back on a kid who played on the same team as my son. You would have sworn he was the next Gretzky. He could score almost any time he wanted to. He kept handing goals to other kids to pump them up. He was just that much better than any of the other 10 year olds. I think he is an engineer or something now.

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04-10-2017, 12:53 AM
  #52
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Jets should take the best player available obviously, but I would love to see them draft another Josh Morrissey. We are pretty thin on the blue line, and I am still unsure of what Chevy was doing in 2016, when he traded up a couple of positions to draft Logan Stanley at the expense of our 2nd round pick.

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04-10-2017, 12:56 AM
  #53
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The first time in years I haven't paid much attention to the draft. From Finnish perspective it would be fun if the Jets took one of the highly touted defenders (Heiskanen, Välimäki or Vaakanainen). Since this is the Jets v2.0 the team absolutely must have it's new Selänne - Numminen tandem!

Seriously speaking I don't know. If they go for the need it should be either a big skilled C or puck moving D. Not sure about centers but this year but it looks like there's an abundance of defense men available. Little is getting old and not sure how many years there's left in the tank. So if there's a new Scheifele out there, then hopefully the scouts hit another jackpot. Then again, you can never have large enough pool of D-prospects in the system. Didn't really like the Stanley pick last year. This time they hopefully look for other traits than height.

By the way if the Jets hadn't gone on the win streak and finished with 8 to 10 points less, I can only imagine all the options on the table. That combined with last year's lottery win would have been pretty sick. Not that I'm rooting to lose games but it's pretty interesting thought.

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04-10-2017, 01:04 AM
  #54
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04-10-2017, 03:06 AM
  #55
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It is quite tough (and meaningless) to predict anything at this point, but if one of Heiskanen, Liljegren, Välimäki or Makar is on the board at 12, it's a no-brainer for us.

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04-10-2017, 04:38 AM
  #56
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It is quite tough (and meaningless) to predict anything at this point, but if one of Heiskanen, Liljegren, Välimäki or Makar is on the board at 12, it's a no-brainer for us.
I tend to agree, but if one of them isn't available I think the Jets should be able to nab a very high end forward from a group that would include Glass, Pettersson and Necas.

I think there is a pretty large tier after Patrick and Hischier that will extend to the Jets' slot at #12.

Patrick
Hischier

Vilardi
Mittelstadt
Tippett
Liljegren
Tolvanen
Heiskanen
Makar
Valimaki
Glass
Pettersson
Necas

If all the 4 D are gone by #12, the Jets might be looking at Hague and/or Foote, but the worst case scenario might be looking at a forward like Pettersson, Necas or Glass. I don't mind that as a consolation prize.

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04-10-2017, 07:17 AM
  #57
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I don't mind being 12th because I like my top 12 list and I think all the players in it (except maybe Suzuki) are widely acceptex as top players in the draft. Of course some teams will reach, and maybe we will as well. Anyways, I'll feel a bit different if we get slotted with the 13th pick.

Hischier
Patrick

Necas
Mittelstadt
Glass
Suzuki
Liljegren
Pettersson

Makar
Heiskanen
Vilardi
Tippett

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04-10-2017, 07:26 AM
  #58
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But if Jets felt like JMo was BPA of them they lose that choice. That's the point.
My point is that BPA within certain talent tiers is marginal if at all discernable and there is a benefit to winning games that is is also marginal if at all discernable

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04-10-2017, 08:05 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
I tend to agree, but if one of them isn't available I think the Jets should be able to nab a very high end forward from a group that would include Glass, Pettersson and Necas.

I think there is a pretty large tier after Patrick and Hischier that will extend to the Jets' slot at #12.

Patrick
Hischier

Vilardi
Mittelstadt
Tippett
Liljegren
Tolvanen
Heiskanen
Makar
Valimaki
Glass
Pettersson
Necas

If all the 4 D are gone by #12, the Jets might be looking at Hague and/or Foote, but the worst case scenario might be looking at a forward like Pettersson, Necas or Glass. I don't mind that as a consolation prize.
Excellent post Whilee and it's nice to see it laid out like this to bring some comfort to tank nation and other draft junkies.

One of the people I have the most respect for ranking prospects feels there is a top 4 then a big tier but your point is still just as valid. If it is truely a big tier then losing two spots in this draft probably isn't going to be that material. However, there are those years like Trouba, Ehlers, and Stanley where I think one spot was huge. Our chance of winning the lottery did drop from 15 to 9 which doesn't help.

I am at piece for the exact reasons you laid out I think we will have very useful options at 12 and I think we may end up with someone who is top 5 on TNSE's board again. It is what it is this year and we may even be able to aquire a D asset that is BPA so I am looking forward to the draft.


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Old
04-10-2017, 09:57 AM
  #60
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Looking at the lists, there should be a good player left at 12.

Players I think have 0 chance of being at 12:

Patrick
Hischier
Vilardi
Middlestadt
Tippett

Everyone else seems like a crapshoot:

Makar
Liljegren
Heiskanen
Valimaki

Glass
Petterson
Necas
Rasmussen
Anderson
Poehling

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04-10-2017, 10:21 AM
  #61
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My point is that BPA within certain talent tiers is marginal if at all discernable and there is a benefit to winning games that is is also marginal if at all discernable
On average the talent tiers tend to be much larger than what it looks like going into the draft. On average there are huge gaps in talent for the top 20 picks more than any other area. Due to market inefficiencies there are Virtanens and whatnot, so the order of the talent can be imperfect, but the trend is true. This is not without reason. However, there is no evidence to winning games at the end having any benefit. Not saying it isn't beneficial, but no one has actually been able to show this.

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04-10-2017, 10:38 AM
  #62
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How much more do you think the Jets could have done to ensure the tank? They had a mostly AHL D and at times AHL goalies, played Thorbs and Stu relentlessly and sat Petan and Dano regularly. Who else could they have shut down without risking the wrath of players or the league? Bring Pavs back early from his surgery? Sit the first line? Play Tanev for 60 minutes? Break Little's other hand?

I feel like management played a decent hand towards gaining their tank objectives and were undone by the inarguable talent of the team and some lacklustre performances from the opposition. I get being annoyed about the result but you can't legislate your players into losing. Even the Avs, who had an entire season to mismanage their way into dead last, won a few in GT.

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Old
04-10-2017, 10:41 AM
  #63
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I'm talking about the outcome, not the process.

I'm not saying the Jets should have done something different to tank.

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04-10-2017, 10:44 AM
  #64
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This is who I want in this order as of today.

Patrick
Hischier
Vilardi
Liljegren
Valimaki
Glass
Mittelstadt
Heiskanen
Petterson
Necas
Suzuki
Foote
Makar
Andersson

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Old
04-10-2017, 12:05 PM
  #65
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I'm talking about the outcome, not the process.

I'm not saying the Jets should have done something different to tank.
Oh, I wasn't addressing your post -- I've learned a ton from your articles over the years. More the trend of blaming the late-season wins and consequent draft position plummet on incompetent management and/or dream-destroying players. Those claims seem misguided to me.

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04-10-2017, 12:40 PM
  #66
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It's actually quite meaningful...

Imagine if the #12 team wanted Morrissey?!
We’d have taken Domi like the Jets and many posters here wanted?

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
But if Jets felt like JMo was BPA of them they lose that choice. That's the point.
If the reports we’ve seen are correct they player they really wanted did go just before they picked and they had the settle for the next guy on their list. Things turned out just fine in spite of that.


Last edited by lomiller1: 04-10-2017 at 12:49 PM.
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04-10-2017, 12:47 PM
  #67
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On average the talent tiers tend to be much larger than what it looks like going into the draft. On average there are huge gaps in talent for the top 20 picks more than any other area. Due to market inefficiencies there are Virtanens and whatnot, so the order of the talent can be imperfect, but the trend is true. This is not without reason. However, there is no evidence to winning games at the end having any benefit. Not saying it isn't beneficial, but no one has actually been able to show this.
it had a benefit to the fans in the arena who are paying the $$$. that has benefit. made my Saturday night enjoyable. But seriously, there are going to be variables that we can never quantify; wouldn't want to hang my hat on many of those, but in the face of the difference between Morrissey, Domi, Wennberg, a couple of wins doesn't hurt you.

Morrissey may have been the Jets BPA (though there are suggestions it was Domi), but doesn't mean he was. There was little consensus on who would be better between the three. If there is little consensus between 3 or 4 players, I would tend to group them in a tier.

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04-10-2017, 12:50 PM
  #68
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Click away...
http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

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04-10-2017, 12:51 PM
  #69
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Or here

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

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04-10-2017, 01:03 PM
  #70
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They both seem to work




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04-10-2017, 01:08 PM
  #71
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They both seem to work

This one would cause an absolute meltdown on the Canucks board.

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04-10-2017, 01:11 PM
  #72
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First try:

1.


2. :canucks


3.

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04-10-2017, 01:12 PM
  #73
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We’d have taken Domi like the Jets and many posters here wanted?


If the reports we’ve seen are correct they player they really wanted did go just before they picked and they had the settle for the next guy on their list. Things turned out just fine in spite of that.
As Garth Brooks would say" "Thank god for unanswered prayers"

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04-10-2017, 01:17 PM
  #74
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As Garth Brooks would say" "Thank god for unanswered prayers"
Domi might be a player who can actually compliment Burmistrov

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04-10-2017, 01:28 PM
  #75
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If the reports we’ve seen are correct they player they really wanted did go just before they picked and they had the settle for the next guy on their list. Things turned out just fine in spite of that.
Oh god what if their #1 choice was Sam Morin and the Flyers didn't pick him

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