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My moves to put Boston over the top

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10-24-2003, 05:08 PM
  #1
Michael Karlstrom II
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My moves to put Boston over the top

First an apology to anyone reading this who hates fantasy moves. I know some feel these type of posts are a waste of their time so I warn you all that some of these moves may not be likely given the way the team operates, however; I believe the deals would all be possible if the management of the team wanted them to happen so I offer them up here now for the consideration of those who do like these types of posts and who might want to debate me why my deals wouldn't be possible or whatever.

Also before I begin, I do like the current team and believe we have a solid playoff team which could be upgraded to a legit cup threat with maybe a couple medium/minor type deadline rentals later. I don't need to see the team undgergo radical transformation to be happy but I think there are lots of oportunities out there that could really turn us into a powerhouse and here are a few I would do if I was running the club.

I would start immediately by going after Jagr in Washington. Forget about whatever attitude problem the dude has... when he does show up he is still the top offensive skilled player in the NHL and an unstopable force all by his lonesome. Put him on the second line with Samsonov while Joe and Glen take the top checking of the other team and our offense is better than Colorado's IMHO.

I don't think it would take much to get Jagr either as far as talent goes. Washington gave up next to nothing for him and is pretty much just looking to dump the 55 million left owing him over the next 5 seasons. It is a crapload of money to be sure but if a team is going to pay this type of contract it might as well be to the third best scorer in NHL history.

I would propose a trade basically of Martin Lapointe straight up for Jagr. Washington would still get a servicable player even if he is overpaid. The deal would be akin to Washington eating half of Jagr's salary which the rumors report they are consdiering willing to do.

I would hate to give up Lapointe's physicality but it might be easier to handle if the Caps would expand the trade to include Grier. My guess is that Grier will be an UFA at the end of the season. He will only be 29 but I think that the age treshold for UFA could come down to 27 or so to get a little closer to what the other leagues have in order to secure a cap agreement from the players associaition.

Grier has Boston area history and I have heard him speak highly of the city several times before. He has a ton of straightaway speed for such a big man and has thrown some of the most devastating impactful hits I have ever seen. He even scores 20 goals a season every now and then.

I would let the Capitals have their choice of Ivan Huml or Andy Hilbert in this deal. The Bruin's are getting into a numbers game with their young forwards and we aren't going to have room for all of them. I am now convinced neither Huml nor Hilbert figure to be first line players... they could still be decent second liners I suppose but neither is suited for third line. If the team plans to keep Samsonov and Murray and if my moves were to add Jagr than very quickly the first/second line spots fill up here. We can let a kid or two move.

So call the final deal Lapointe/Huml for Jagr/Grier. We get better immediately. Capitals shed some salary and a attitude problem of theirs and get a little younger. If the Capitals wanted another prospect/draft pick I would surrender one conditionally based on Jagr's production and tied into the Caps eating some additional salary but this would be my first move.

I would wait for a bit after making the move going with the lines of

Knuble/Thornton/Murray
Jagr/Zinovjev/Samsonov
Bergeron/Rolston/Axelsson
Grier/Green/Zamuner
McCarthy/Donato as the subs

With any luck Zino will love playing with Jagr/Sammy and Bergeron won't hit the wall and we can pretty much stay with this forward group for a playoff run.

However, if we did need to fine tune things any further up front my next target would be Alexei Zhamnov out of Chicago. With the Blackhawks looking to be challangers for the first overall pick in next year's draft and now having canned Mike Smith... I would think that the next GM there will very quickly realize that the skill on the team is far too soft to compete in the NHL.

Zhamnov is making 4 mill this year and is headed to UFA so he is pretty much useless to the Hawks on all fronts. They have Ruuto/Yabukov/Arnason and Bell too all looking for scoring line opportunities at center ice.

They have major problems on the blueline. In order to land Zhamnov I would use either Jonathon Girard if he is healthy by the time this deal goes down or Lars Jonsson in the alternative as the core to my offer. I would probably than have to add some sort of higher/midlevel draft pick to the package and I might have to add some sort of future considerations should the B's keep Zhamnov beyond this season.

I really doubt the price to pay would be much more than a prospect who can play soon and a 3rd/2nd round pick type thing.

I would doubt the price for Peter Nedved out of New York would be much more if the Rangers are out of the hunt come close to the deadline. I think Michael Nylander could be had for about the same cost.

If Zhamnov is gone by the time I judged Zino not ready there would be a few UFA rental types we could get to complement Jagr/Sammy.

Even a Craig Conroy out of Calgary could be a good pickup. Frankly I feel Jagr/Sammy should have amazing chemistry together and I doubt any team has enougth checking depth to shut down both a Murray/Thornton line as well as a Jagr/Samsonov line [not to mention us having the luxory of keeping Rolston on the third line and 20 goal candidate Grier now on the fourth line :}]

Our forward group would be a moster to deal with at this point after my one/two proposed moves but our d would still need some potential work.

I think I would hold off to the deadline to make my d moves.

My wish list starts with Keith Carney. Fresh off of a cup finals run he is primed with warrior know-how on what it takes to get the job done. He is a Boston area native... and he is both skilled enough and young enough even as an experience vet to be the leader of our young corps over the next 3-4 years as the team's youngsters learn to gel together.

I really can't see Anaheim turning things around. They weren't that good of a team last season and if anything I think they messed up their chemistry with their offseason moves. Gigure is a good goaltender but not the god he pretended to be last season. The rule change reducing pad sizes hurts him more than anyone.

Anaheim's one legitimate strength is on the blueline... when healthy they will have at least one legit top 5 type dman in the pressbox most nights. Carney coming up on UFA is the logical target to be moved.

He won't come cheap. Since my plan is to keep him over the long haul I would insist on a sign and trade deal. I would give Carney the money currently being paid to O'Donnell and justify the expense next season when I let O'D move or try to resign him at more like a million a season under the new Salary Cap rules.

If Carney was willing to accept a 4 year 12 million type offer to come home to Boston I would than settle on a talent price to be paid to Anaheim. I am guessing that the Ducks would be looking at our first round pick maybe? I'd be willing to part with it but if I did. I would want at least one other upgrade somewhere. Carney only cost the Ducks a second last time he moved and now he is headed to UFA.

Call my final proposal here Boston first in 2004 and a fourth in 2005 for Carney and the Ducks third in 2004.

The aquistition of Carney would really make our defense cup caliber in my opinion if they are all healthy going for the run.

Carney can pair up with Jillson if Jeff has stayed consistient all season and the pair would have the mobility/size that a top unit needs. Carney would be able to cover up for the odd Jillson mistake a bit better than McGillis can do to his slightly better speed and knowledge of the D-game.

McGillis could knock Gill out of the 3/4 pairing. I am not sure why Gill is struggling so much at the moment but his weak play is hurting Boynton. McGillis is best suited for 3/4 type duties on a cup run anyhow. He can be used some on the PP but not so much on the PK keeping his moments down and keeping him a bit fresher for even strength situations.

Gill would now drop down to partner up with O'Donnell in what could be a really nasty 5/6 pairing. If these two guys are only getting 16/18 min a game they should be able to stay fresh and be able to take more chances physically. They would be slow but the team could keep tham away from the other team's top lines except during PK. Their size makes both of them pretty decent PK defenders when they are focused.

I'm not totally sold on Potvin in the nets but I want to take a longer look at Raycroft and I am not sure Toivenen won't be ready by the time playoffs roll around so I wouldn't be planning to make a goaltender move yet.

Goaltending is so much a matter of confidence and playing behind a powerhouse team like this should really help in the confidence area.

With the additions of Jagr/Zhamnov/Grier/Carney for Lapointe and prospects/picks we would add maybe 7 million or so in payroll but give the team an additional playoff round and we would get that money back.

Here is how my final team looks as we enter the playoffs

Knuble/Thornton/Murray [we have seen this line and know it's as good as there is in the NHL}

Jagr/Zhamnov/Samsonov [line would be a bit soft maybe but has there ever been a more talented second line in the history of the NHL?]

Bergeron/Rolston/Axelsson [Rolston is the best counter punching third liner in the NHL. Bergeron and Axelsson are brilliant checkers]

Grier/Green/Zamuner [I would suggest this is the best fourth line in the NHL... Green is a very good faceoff guy and Grier/Zamuner are solid checkers who can counter punch... this line will eat it's competition and can take a regular shift to keep the top guys fresher]

Zinovjev is around for injury fillin as would be Samuelsson... both are around to take the spots of guys like Zhamnov/Zamuner when we have to let them go for salary concerns next season.

Defense sees us with

Carney/Jillson... our top unit usually pairs up with the Thornton line so Jillson can be a fourth attacker.

Boynton/McGillis... our top shutdown guys usually playing with Rolston's line against the other team's scorers. Strong transition skills should help Rolston spring away on a few additional breadaway attempts.

Gill/O'Donnell ... guys would go out and be able to stay deep with either the Sammy/Jagr lines or even the fourth line unit. Sammy/Jagr our puck position cycling experts so there wouldn't be a ton of turnovers exposing the slower foot speeds of Gill and OD.

Moran/Grosek can both be waived under my plan to save a few hundred thousand if someone takes them off our hands.

McCarthy is around to draw in if we are playing a specially goony oponent.

I give up a few picks which could hurt down the road but I would concentrate on getting Murray/Rolston/Carney locked up to 3-4 year deals here and adding them to the young core of Thornton/Samsonov/Boynton/Jillson/Raycroft and Jagr who is now signed for the next 5 years too.

We aren't really going to have a ton of openings for players to make the team over the next 3-4 years here.

Axelsson can stay around and so can Gill. Bergeron looks legit so far. Zinovjev/Samuelsson are showing that they should at least be counted on as decent fourth line contributors sooner rather than later.

The CBA and the salary cap/new UFA rules are going to let teams do alot of patchwork if needed. If there was ever a time a team could give up a pick or two its now [especially if the team is deep with near-NHL-ready prospects like we are.]

Even if a guy like Knuble might get priced out of our ability to keep him this season or if guys like McGillis/O'D won't make any sense to keep beyond this season at the 2+ mill they are going to be seeking... we have the kids in the system to fill into these spots vacated.

I really would like to see the Bruins go for the cup here. Roll the dice on a Jagr pickup. Maybe fans in the know would look at the move skeptically until Jagr turned things around but the average layperson would know the name Jagr and might be prompted to pick up some tickets to get the kids to an additional game or two.

Jagr is one of the few players in the NHL that DOES sell tickets with just his name alone.

He isn't really my type of player... but get me a cup and I wouldn't care if both Kovalenko AND Coffey were back with the team as part of it.

So many possibilities available this year that could really help a team go for it. I guess the important thing will be not to do too much and totally mess up chemistry while sacraficing all of the future.

I don't think my moves do sacrafice anything critical for the future... and I think if the moves were spread out some they wouldn't totally destroy chemistry [Of course I am counting on Jagr liking Boston more than Washington]

Anyhow... been writing for awhile here and could go on forever if I don't pick some place to end things.

Will say that despite my playing fantasy trader here I do really like the team and am confident the club will be able to rack up a 100 point regular season easy playoff appearance even if they dont make another move all season.

O'C gets very high grades from me for all of his moves [almost] and I do like his PLAN for the team. I will continue to cheer each win and just hope that a few more of those cheers are in the playoffs this season than there have been the last couple years,

Only time will tell I guess. Go Bruins Go

 
Old
10-24-2003, 05:24 PM
  #2
Mizral
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Exceptionally long post, but interesting. Let me just respond with a few notes:

#1 - I highly doubt the Ducks would let go of Carney for a 1st and a 4th unless they were out of the playoff picture. Carney could certainly be had as a UFA after this year, but certainly not for that price - except maybe if the Ducks were out of it, as I said.

#2 - The Caps would love to move Jagr, even if it meant taking Lapointe's contract. However, I ask you to understand what you are getting into. Jagr's contract has many more years to go at $11 million dollars. This might seem good, to add a top-flight player for next to nothing. But keep in mind, the Caps thought it seemed good once upon a time, too. Getting Jagr, in my mind, would spell the end of Joe Thornton on Beantown after this year. They simply could not afford to keep a $70 million dollar payroll. This is not the New York Rangers.

#3 - Heh, Zhamnov. Have you seen this guy play lately? Let me give you an idea of Zhamnov's play this past year, as I see my fair share of Hawks games: Imagine.. Sergei Samsonov.. with ZERO hustle, ZERO determination, ZERO physicality, and ZERO grit. That's Zhamnov, packaged with a $4.5 million dollar contract. Honestly, Zhamnov may be the biggest floater in the league most nights. The only reason why his point totals aren't in the basement is because of some good passing skills. Do the B's want to spend $4.5 million dollars on a guy they had last year for $2.? in Stumpel? Honestly, Zhamnov would be the worst thing to ever happen to Beantown since Landon Wilson.

#4 - I don't think Caps will deal Greir at the moment. He's supposed to take Konowalchuk's spot as the 'leader/physical grinder/defensive forward' role.

#5 - Even if all these deals were okayed by management, you're adding in something like $20 million dollars in payroll for this year, and many more millions for years to come afterwards. These are the kinds of moves that, in my opinion, create the New York Rangers', Washington Capitals', and Toronto Maple Leafs' of the league. And the B's REALLY don't want to be in their shoes.

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10-24-2003, 05:26 PM
  #3
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I thought DKH wrote long posts, but his pale in comparison...

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10-24-2003, 06:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misterjaggers
I thought DKH wrote long posts, but his pale in comparison...
That was some vintage Karlstrom right there.

Interesting thoughts, but Jagr has ruined the Caps, and he would ruin us too. Still as 4 more years at 11 per on there. No way I deal for him.

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10-24-2003, 06:22 PM
  #5
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Barnes and Noble called.

They're missing a novel. :p

I would love to see Joe and Jagr, but agree that the contracts may make that move prohibitive. You run into a pretty big problem if you DO get him, though, in that you have to get someone to dish the puck to both Jagr and Murray. Defenses don't respect Jagr's playmaking anymore, since there's no other threat (Lemieux) to worry about if you sell out to cover him. I doubt he'd do a whole lot better with Zino/Sammy than he's doing in Washington. Put him with Joe, and it's a whole new ball game...

I'm not so sure about Grier, either. Grier strikes me as a tougher but less skilled player of a nearly identical mold as Brian Rolston. Can you really have two of those guys on the same team and get the most out of them?

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10-24-2003, 06:28 PM
  #6
Michael Karlstrom II
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I have to plead guilty to having long posts... dont post as much since I got married but figure I might as well have something to say if I am going to sneak some time to induldge my love here.

Replying to Mizrael have to counter argue some.

First I know about the payroll I am adding. Jagr is making around 11 million while Lapointe is making around 5 million. This is a 6 million addition over the next 2 seasons than a 11 million for the 3 after that. It could be a problem but current thought is that a home playoff game is worth around 2 million pure profit. I am additionally factoring in that a Jagr led club could mean at least an additional 1000 tickets sold per home game just because winning teams with fancy superstars on them tend to sell out better. Jagr does still sell tickets.

I wouldn't take Zhamnov or Nedved or anyone until the deadline and until Zino proved he couldn't do the job. We would only be on the hook for a month of his contract thus and so add a million or so payroll increase.

Grier would effectively mean that Grosek gets waived. Add around a million differance here.

Carney would be added at the end of the season and would effectively waive Moran.

Even if we got stuck with Grosek and Moran... the fact that we are only taking Carney at the deadline and Zhamnov at the deadline still only adds around a million for both give or take and depending on our ability to dump Grosek/Moran.

Overall contract cost to make my moves is alot closer to 8 million increase than the 20 million you are predicting.

If you were figuring more cost 2-3 years down the road than please keep in mind that I am letting O'Donnell go at the end of this season to account for the new Carney contract... effectively no increase. I am letting any of Zhamnov/Nedved/Conroy walk since they are strictly rentals... no increase at all here and I let Zino try to win the job again next season. I wouldnt even make this deal at all if Zino wins the job this year.

As for Zhamnov sucking the last 2 seasons... agreed... that is why he is so cheap. Zhamnov is a world class talent. Watch him on a better team and he shows more. Put him with a gutless Chicago team surrounded by other soft players or goons who can't keep up and ridden hard by Sutter and we aren't going to see the best of him.

He might not fit Boston any better but if there is one thing this guy can do it's pass the puck. He was a threat to lead the league in scoring back in Winnipeg playing with Tkachuck and Selanne. He is older now and better suited for second line and even than I am not sure I wouldn't want Nedved or Conroy just as quick... my point in my proposal basically is let Zino try to win the job... or let Hilbert get healthy and take his shot if we don't move him in the Jagr deal... than go out at deadline time and fill the hole if there is still one.

Jagr is the real key for me here in my proposal and one simply doesnt add a 11 million dollar a year player unless one is willing to support the move with other support moves to give a real legitimate shot at a cup.

As for whether Grier would be available or not is sort of moot to me. I would try to insist on him if the Caps don't want to eat contract on the Jagr move. Jagr has 5 years left while Lapointe has 2... leaving us on the hook for around 40 million difference in the contracts of the two over 5 years. Figure that this 40 million is spread and think of us as paying Jagre 8 mill a year instead of 11. It's still a ton. I wouldn't count on Washington making Grier a deal breaker especially when I am quite sure he will be an UFA after the new CBA gets signed.

In any case... he is slotted for fourth line duty with me. Whether I land him or not it wouldn't be critical to the expected success I have with these moves.

Contract obviously is the key to my moves. Talent wise I think the moves are no-brainers. Someone might argue they would rather land Ricci or Zhitnik or whomever and I would go 'okay maybe' but there are numberous opportunities for the team willing to take salary this year.

I like Jagr myself cause he is a difference maker and would really counter the Colorado moves. Our defense/goaltending is better than Colorados... I think my moves would make us the favs for the cup.

Lengthy playoff runs generate profits...

finally as for your comment that the Bruin's arent the NY Rangers I say wrong...

we aren't the Rangers... their revenues are always number 1 but over the last 20 years every source I have seen on team revenues have had us ranked 2nd/3rd/4th depending on year and source right there with Detroit and Philadelphia.

The Bruins have claimed profits of nearly half a billion dollars over the last 25 years routinally declaring operating gains of 10 million plus... seeing an appreciation in team asset value of nearly 200 million... plus seeing a success of their media/concesion operations.

Money is not and never has been the problem with the team. We are a MAJOR MARKET operation. The only problem has been a willingness to spend. Team line has always been that they would spend to win if we got close enough... time to put up or shut up by my accounting.

Don't let Joe and Sammy go to waste like we did Bourque and Neely

It's time to give Boston a cup now!

 
Old
10-24-2003, 07:45 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Karlstrom II
I have to plead guilty to having long posts... dont post as much since I got married but figure I might as well have something to say if I am going to sneak some time to induldge my love here.

Replying to Mizrael have to counter argue some.

First I know about the payroll I am adding. Jagr is making around 11 million while Lapointe is making around 5 million. This is a 6 million addition over the next 2 seasons than a 11 million for the 3 after that. It could be a problem but current thought is that a home playoff game is worth around 2 million pure profit. I am additionally factoring in that a Jagr led club could mean at least an additional 1000 tickets sold per home game just because winning teams with fancy superstars on them tend to sell out better. Jagr does still sell tickets.

I wouldn't take Zhamnov or Nedved or anyone until the deadline and until Zino proved he couldn't do the job. We would only be on the hook for a month of his contract thus and so add a million or so payroll increase.

Grier would effectively mean that Grosek gets waived. Add around a million differance here.

Carney would be added at the end of the season and would effectively waive Moran.

Even if we got stuck with Grosek and Moran... the fact that we are only taking Carney at the deadline and Zhamnov at the deadline still only adds around a million for both give or take and depending on our ability to dump Grosek/Moran.

Overall contract cost to make my moves is alot closer to 8 million increase than the 20 million you are predicting.

If you were figuring more cost 2-3 years down the road than please keep in mind that I am letting O'Donnell go at the end of this season to account for the new Carney contract... effectively no increase. I am letting any of Zhamnov/Nedved/Conroy walk since they are strictly rentals... no increase at all here and I let Zino try to win the job again next season. I wouldnt even make this deal at all if Zino wins the job this year.

As for Zhamnov sucking the last 2 seasons... agreed... that is why he is so cheap. Zhamnov is a world class talent. Watch him on a better team and he shows more. Put him with a gutless Chicago team surrounded by other soft players or goons who can't keep up and ridden hard by Sutter and we aren't going to see the best of him.

He might not fit Boston any better but if there is one thing this guy can do it's pass the puck. He was a threat to lead the league in scoring back in Winnipeg playing with Tkachuck and Selanne. He is older now and better suited for second line and even than I am not sure I wouldn't want Nedved or Conroy just as quick... my point in my proposal basically is let Zino try to win the job... or let Hilbert get healthy and take his shot if we don't move him in the Jagr deal... than go out at deadline time and fill the hole if there is still one.

Jagr is the real key for me here in my proposal and one simply doesnt add a 11 million dollar a year player unless one is willing to support the move with other support moves to give a real legitimate shot at a cup.

As for whether Grier would be available or not is sort of moot to me. I would try to insist on him if the Caps don't want to eat contract on the Jagr move. Jagr has 5 years left while Lapointe has 2... leaving us on the hook for around 40 million difference in the contracts of the two over 5 years. Figure that this 40 million is spread and think of us as paying Jagre 8 mill a year instead of 11. It's still a ton. I wouldn't count on Washington making Grier a deal breaker especially when I am quite sure he will be an UFA after the new CBA gets signed.

In any case... he is slotted for fourth line duty with me. Whether I land him or not it wouldn't be critical to the expected success I have with these moves.

Contract obviously is the key to my moves. Talent wise I think the moves are no-brainers. Someone might argue they would rather land Ricci or Zhitnik or whomever and I would go 'okay maybe' but there are numberous opportunities for the team willing to take salary this year.

I like Jagr myself cause he is a difference maker and would really counter the Colorado moves. Our defense/goaltending is better than Colorados... I think my moves would make us the favs for the cup.

Lengthy playoff runs generate profits...

finally as for your comment that the Bruin's arent the NY Rangers I say wrong...

we aren't the Rangers... their revenues are always number 1 but over the last 20 years every source I have seen on team revenues have had us ranked 2nd/3rd/4th depending on year and source right there with Detroit and Philadelphia.

The Bruins have claimed profits of nearly half a billion dollars over the last 25 years routinally declaring operating gains of 10 million plus... seeing an appreciation in team asset value of nearly 200 million... plus seeing a success of their media/concesion operations.

Money is not and never has been the problem with the team. We are a MAJOR MARKET operation. The only problem has been a willingness to spend. Team line has always been that they would spend to win if we got close enough... time to put up or shut up by my accounting.

Don't let Joe and Sammy go to waste like we did Bourque and Neely

It's time to give Boston a cup now!
Some interesting thoughts.

I think we know Jagr would never happen just because of what Bruwinz20 said, too much money is involved and he's a risk in the locker room. His contract runs through 2008 at $11M per. If there's anything we know about the Bruins, it's that they would never have a player such as this on their payroll, not even in the good days and regardless if he was not a whiner. It goes against everything they've ever stood for about rising salaries.

As for Zhamnov, like you I thought of him too, but that was maybe a month ago. Now things are different. At this point, I would be very concerned about his back. He's on the lam for a stretch and who knows what he will be like on return. He'll be trying to hit stride 1/3 of the way through the season, which is tough, and he would be a gamble at that.

Conroy is a good target. I'm not sure how much he would cost but if the B's needed a vet center come February I'd be OK if they settled on him. Francis would be another in my book, as would Damphousse because of his playmaking ability and cup experience.

Carney I would think is a long shot because he is the Ducks defense. The guy carries that group and they know it. They will have to be far out of the race to consider it and even so, they would have to know there's no way they can bring him back -- unless they tried to pull a Wesley like Rutherford did.

Interesting idea to think about Jagr and Samsonov on the same line though, that would be outstanding.

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10-24-2003, 08:11 PM
  #8
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you have to wait for a legit problem to make moves of this magnitude. look at bergeron-he's being mentored by lapointe dont forget. losing him may well screw with bergerons confidence. what if our goaltending heads south and suddenly there's no lapointe for trade bait and a over-inflated jagr salary? what if we bank our coin upfront and then sustain injuries on the back end? what about the system sullivan is trying to get everyone to buy into? i know it might sound like a cliche but the fact is that we-like every team needs to take a look at their teams at different points in the season. unless a major injury occurs most teams today go by the quarter mark. after 20 games we need such and such...after 40 we need this position filled. that's why trades are so far and few inbetween today. there is SOOOO much changeover of players/couple with rookies coming in that there is alot of time needed for adjustment/judgement before making any rash decisions.

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10-24-2003, 09:51 PM
  #9
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Snipping out a lot of this just to get to the key points

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Karlstrom II
Replying to Mizrael have to counter argue some.

First I know about the payroll I am adding. Jagr is making around 11 million while Lapointe is making around 5 million. This is a 6 million addition over the next 2 seasons than a 11 million for the 3 after that. It could be a problem but current thought is that a home playoff game is worth around 2 million pure profit. I am additionally factoring in that a Jagr led club could mean at least an additional 1000 tickets sold per home game just because winning teams with fancy superstars on them tend to sell out better. Jagr does still sell tickets.
Even if you factor in those tickets, Jagr is going to cost the franchise big bucks. He would become a millstone around the Bruins neck over the couple of years. I agree he is a massive talent, I have even entertained thoughts of the Canucks picking him up if we get this Roman Abromavich owner (new rumours are swirling now with Abromavich retooling an aircraft in Vancouver to fit a sports team..).

However, tell the Caps that Washington sells tickets. Frankly, the Caps have terrible attendance. Yes, Washington is not the same as Boston, but even still - who is going to pay money to see Jagr if he doesn't turn back into an offensive god? This is a big risk you'd be taking. A potential roster-gutting mistake.

You did make one mistake though. 2 million pure profit per playoff game? No, not quite. I seem to recall piston (Kings fan who did the books on the Kings a while ago, very smart financial man) figured it to be 4 million revenue per round, 2 million operating costs - 2 million gain per playoff round. I imagine this is the standard for every NHL team, though perhaps in Montreal, with that huge building, they can eek out more.

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I wouldn't take Zhamnov or Nedved or anyone until the deadline and until Zino proved he couldn't do the job. We would only be on the hook for a month of his contract thus and so add a million or so payroll increase.
Not sure on the Zhamnov's or Nedved's contract length. Can't argue with this though, however I would take Nedved 10 times before Zhamnov. Nedved is not only more talented, but works much harder.

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Grier would effectively mean that Grosek gets waived. Add around a million differance here.
As I stated before, I don't think the Caps would move Grier.

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Carney would be added at the end of the season and would effectively waive Moran.
I don't think the Ducks will miss the playoffs anytime soon (slow start or not), but even if they did, I'm not sure they'd move Keith Carney. One of the most underrated defensemen in the league, I'm pretty sure the Ducks would want at least one roster player like Boynton or Gill to come back to Duckland - IF they thought of trading Carney.

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If you were figuring more cost 2-3 years down the road than please keep in mind that I am letting O'Donnell go at the end of this season to account for the new Carney contract... effectively no increase. I am letting any of Zhamnov/Nedved/Conroy walk since they are strictly rentals... no increase at all here and I let Zino try to win the job again next season. I wouldnt even make this deal at all if Zino wins the job this year.
Alright, so let's say that you've brought in Jagr next year, and you don't resign those other guys. You are still adding on a $5.5 million amount on top of Lapointe's loss. How much of that $5.5 would be taken out of a potential Thornton contract? Honestly, would he sign in Boston for any less than $8 million dollars? I wonder. I'd also say, Jagr or no Jagr, Murray may move on (get the feeling he doesn't like Boston.. just from snippets on how he talks about management this past off season). Rolston is also another key UFA that would be difficult to retain with Jagr in the mix.

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As for Zhamnov sucking the last 2 seasons... agreed... that is why he is so cheap. Zhamnov is a world class talent. Watch him on a better team and he shows more. Put him with a gutless Chicago team surrounded by other soft players or goons who can't keep up and ridden hard by Sutter and we aren't going to see the best of him.
Honestly, I don't think there is any hope for Zhamnov anymore. He played on a line with Daze & Sullivan for quite some time, and just can't do anything.

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Jagr is the real key for me here in my proposal and one simply doesnt add a 11 million dollar a year player unless one is willing to support the move with other support moves to give a real legitimate shot at a cup.

As for whether Grier would be available or not is sort of moot to me. I would try to insist on him if the Caps don't want to eat contract on the Jagr move. Jagr has 5 years left while Lapointe has 2... leaving us on the hook for around 40 million difference in the contracts of the two over 5 years. Figure that this 40 million is spread and think of us as paying Jagre 8 mill a year instead of 11. It's still a ton. I wouldn't count on Washington making Grier a deal breaker especially when I am quite sure he will be an UFA after the new CBA gets signed.

In any case... he is slotted for fourth line duty with me. Whether I land him or not it wouldn't be critical to the expected success I have with these moves.
Fair enough.

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Contract obviously is the key to my moves. Talent wise I think the moves are no-brainers. Someone might argue they would rather land Ricci or Zhitnik or whomever and I would go 'okay maybe' but there are numberous opportunities for the team willing to take salary this year.

I like Jagr myself cause he is a difference maker and would really counter the Colorado moves. Our defense/goaltending is better than Colorados... I think my moves would make us the favs for the cup.
All due respect, but Boynton, Gill, & co. versus Foote, Blake, Morris, Skrastins, & chaff? I agree about goaltending. But honestly, I'd be worried more about matching up to New Jersey, Detroit, and Ottawa this year, than Colorado. They are not nearly as good as touted to be, as you guys witnessed first hand.

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Lengthy playoff runs generate profits...

finally as for your comment that the Bruin's arent the NY Rangers I say wrong...

we aren't the Rangers... their revenues are always number 1 but over the last 20 years every source I have seen on team revenues have had us ranked 2nd/3rd/4th depending on year and source right there with Detroit and Philadelphia.
Revenues are one thing, but operating costs are another. The Canucks have MASSIVE revenues, but their costs are through the roof with the building costs in particular. Different arenas have different deals. I believe the Nashville's Gaylord Arena has a hell of an arena deal which actually keeps that franchise somewhat afloat. However, from what I have read, Boston has one of the worst arena deals in the league, too.


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Money is not and never has been the problem with the team. We are a MAJOR MARKET operation. The only problem has been a willingness to spend. Team line has always been that they would spend to win if we got close enough... time to put up or shut up by my accounting.

Don't let Joe and Sammy go to waste like we did Bourque and Neely

It's time to give Boston a cup now!
Can't argue with any of this. Money has never been a problem in Boston. However, what is important is to understand this: The Bruins were amongst the teams that lost money last year (according to piston, again). How much, I'm not sure. But Jagr would be beyond a problem. He would be the sort of thing that simply turns the franchise completely upside down financially. Honestly, if these deals turned out for the Bruins, I think they'd have one heck of a playoff run, but then see Rolston & Murray walk off to another team, and perhaps Thornton turn into another Jason Allison situation.

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10-24-2003, 09:53 PM
  #10
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One quick addendum:

I think this would create a problem for Thornton, speficially in that he would see the Bruins bringing in Jagr at $11 million, and start measuring himself against Jags. I mean, if the Bruins were to bring him in, they must think Jagr is worth the money. If that's the case, Thornton has every reason in the world to ask for $11, or maybe more. Though the CBA might change things somewhat, I doubt it'd be by all that much!

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10-25-2003, 12:08 AM
  #11
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I'd love Ron Francais if he was willing to move. Last year he wasn't so not sure if he would be this year.

He would be a major target for me though if he was willing to come over and reunite with Jagr. I think they played together alot in Pittsburg didn't they?

As for playoff revenues... in rough numbers if a team sells 10 000 tickets at 100 dollars each it's a million dollars. 15 000 tickets would be 1.5 million.

The average Boston ticket price would be at least 100 dollars I would think. Add in luxery boxes... tv revenues and so on... Jacobs owens the concessions...

playoff games are big money. Players recieve no pay from the team for playoff games. I guess they get their living allowance but it is nominal compared to the extra merchandising that a playoff run delivers to a team.

The Colorado Avalanche are actually a small market team and yet are able to spend with Detroit and New York. They manage this because 8 home playoff games a year toss them an extra 16 million or so in spendable income and increases the value of the franchise some 20 million plus.

Look at the Forbes rankings for teams that go to the cup... they always increase at least 20 mill in the year they go.

There is one website that gives all this business info for those interested. I wish I could remember the exact name. Think its something like hockeyzoneplus. They have various grids and things plus historical salary info.

On the topic of Jagr's arrival upsetting Thornton. It's a definite possibility. I would hope Joe would do what was right for the team and be happy the club was trying to get him the cup. Whether or not he wants 8 mill a year next year should have precious little to do with Jagr being on the team. Joe is now the best player in the game and it would surprise me if he didn't want to be paid accordingly.

Jagr is at UFA age. UFA always make more. Jagr has won MVP awards and scoring titles. Players are always paid for what they did in the past... rarely punished for what they did recently. If anything the B's might be able to argue Joe hasn't proven yet to be in Jagr's pay range given the accomplishments the cups... the age... the scoring titles.

On the other hand having Jagr on board might tick Joe off. I am afraid if it does though that Joe would be showing a problem attitude and I wouldn't want him on the team.

There is precious little chance of Joe becoming an UFA next season. I can't see the NHL dropping the age to under 27. I suppose I might be wrong but if I am not than Joe really has no option of leaving the team. He can sit out of course but if the B's have Jagr/Samsonov/Murray they would be in a good position to let Joe sit... much better than if they didn't have Joe.

If the B's get forced into trading Joe he has as much or more trade value than any other player in the NHL today.

I am not saying the B's think like I do... I would guess they do not. I think though that pure finance isn't a good argument against my suggestion. Teams like New York/Philadelphia/Detroit/St Louis/Dallas all have 9-10 million dollar players on them and Boston has the ability to spend with anyone this side of the Rangers.

Jagr doesn't sell tickets anymore in Washington but I would argue this is as much about Washington being a bad sports town as anything else. He has also been there for awhile now and his novelty has worn off. He wouldn't sell tickets over the long haul anywhere he went much. I mean there will always be the Jagr fans that would like to go to see him but I am sure there are Lapointe fans too. I am really counting on the Jagr name only for this season. The B's have several unsold tickets each game. I would expect at least a jump of 1000 tickets per game with Jagr. I have no proof that the ticket sales would jump that much... just my belief based on what the Gretzky move to LA did for them among other similar moves of a superstar into a repressed market place.

The B's faithful feel more than anything that management won't take the next step to try to go over the top. Right or wrong spending the money to pick up the highest paid player in the NHL would signal a major show to the fans that their support won't be taken for granted.

Let's for argument sakes say we make the moves I suggest... than lets say all hell breaks lose and Thornton forces his way off the team next season asking for 10 mill a year. Maybe Murray does too...

ok... what if the team used the 8 million savings from Thornton/Murray to go after Paul Kariya. He wants to play on a cup winner. Would the B's be looking more like a cup winner with a few of these types of moves made?

Trade Thornton and his holdout off to a team like Florida for argument's sake for Bouwmeister and Steven Weiss and maybe some sort of pick consideration... or to a team like Philadelphia for Pitkanen and Justin Williams or Jeff Carter.

Sure the move would suck I guess to lose my favorite Bruin but there is no guarantee that we wont be forced into dealing Joe anyhow. Some of it will depend how the new CBA cap works out but things happen.

Teams that continue to look 2-3 years down the road never win. The only real way to win a cup is to plan to get close and then to DO SOMETHING when you are close.

Let's play out the doomsday senerial.

I make my moves... and end up with these guys for my cup run

Murray/Thornton/Knuble
Jagr/Zhamonov/Samsonov
Bergeron/Rolston/Axelsson
McCarthy/Green/Zamuner
Donato/Zinovjev

Zhitnik/Jillson [no guarantee we would get Carney... there are a few other guys wo would work for me]
McGillis/Boynton
Gill/O'Donnell
Girard

Potvin
Raycroft

now lets ay that Murray demands 8 mill a year next year and New York gives it to him... Rolston wants 5 and the Islanders fork it over... Knuble wants three and gets it from Columbus. We let OD and McGillis both leave.

We now have 5 holes to fill... Thornton forces a trade so playing wheeler dealer I figure the Blackhawks are looking for a quick turnaround and I settle on Ruuto and a first round pick or two... I should be able to get more but I am trying to estimate worst case scenerials here. We are dealing the best young player in the NHL so we should get something for him.

Ruuto fills one hole on the team... or Pitkanen does... or Bouwmeister does... or maybe Kovalchuk does? I am sure someone would give one of their more unproven kids for Joe if they think they have a chance to win sooner than later with him.

We now have Jagr/Samsonov/Ruuto/Axelsson/Bergeron signed for forwards... I would guess that they would cost around 20 million for the 5 of them.

On defense call it Zhitnik/Boynton/Gill signed for around 6 million or so

In goal we have Raycroft/Toivenen for around 2-3 million whatever the bonues structure is.

We would definitely have some holes to fill. Call the cap at 40 million for arguments sakes.

Plan to promote Zinovjev and Samuelsson into regular roles up front and Morrisonn into a position on the blueline.

I would guess we would now have around 8 mill for the remainder of the team. If the NHL adopted a 'Franchise player exception' type grandfather clause Jagr's salary might not count against the cap. if so we would be in slighly better shape. If not we would be looking sort of bleak here.

I would guess it would be hard for most teams to get under 40 million.

Anyhow... I have fun with these types of extrapolations. I saw the comment about Lapointe being important to Bergeron's development. I would take it to the next level and say that Lapointe is a well reknown leader who helps everyone on the team take it to the next level. His leadership is why the team paid the big money to land him.

I wouldn't be quick to let Lapointe go. I would love to see the team make a move though.

Lapointe for Cujo... Lapointe for Lindros... Lapointe for Allison?

Come time for teams to try to get under 35/40 million there will be a ton of salary available in dumps for nothing at all. This is the year to take a run for it.

If someone wanted to watch St Louis fall apart with their pourous defense and then go after Weight or Tkachuk or Pronger it might be a good way to go too. Or maybe the Islanders will fall apart again and Peca/Hamerlik will be available?

I'm overloading now and bed is calling. Guess I will take the rest of this to my dreams...

 
Old
10-25-2003, 01:38 AM
  #12
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Regarding the revenue for home playoff games, there was an article in the business section of the Globe a couple years back that said all revenue from the first round goes to the NHL to cover its operating costs. I'm not going to bother to look for the link cuz I think the Globe's online archives cost something anyways.

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10-25-2003, 02:36 AM
  #13
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Originally Posted by BBBBruin
Regarding the revenue for home playoff games, there was an article in the business section of the Globe a couple years back that said all revenue from the first round goes to the NHL to cover its operating costs. I'm not going to bother to look for the link cuz I think the Globe's online archives cost something anyways.
it would be interesting if true... I try to be up on all the CBA/NHL finance rules and such since I do find it of personal interest to myself. I know I have listened to alot of interviews over the years where NHL GM's have talked about their costs... interviewers have suggested that playoffs equal additional money. No GM has ever responded that the clubs dont make money from a playoff revenue.

I have actually heard team officials mention that they did make money from playoff appearences. I cant rightly recall if the team in question went beyond the first round though.

Everytime I have ever seen any reference to playoff money it has always revolved around the basic fact that players don't get paid for playoffs so all money goes straight to the owners.

I think my source is Power Play the book on NHL finance written my Gil Stein as to the idea that a home playoff game is worth a million dollars. If I remember right Stien wrote his book in 1994 or there abouts. He was the former head of the NHL so I take his numbers as authoratative. I can't be sure I am remembering them correctly though as it was a few years ago I read the info. Can't even be sure his book is where I get the former million dollar a game number.

More recently I wonder where I get my 2 million dollar figure from. Wish I could remember. I know I considered the source good and then I went to figure it out on my own afterwards. I like to make sure that my fantasy proposals are as grounded in feesible reality as is possible so I try to take contracts into accounting always.

Anyhow, the Bruins publically declare profits every year. I have never once seen them declare a loss. I know I have argued for Jacobs before that any business man should be able to expect a good return on his investments. Jacobs now has around 400 million in asset value tied up with the team and the rink. Even at 3% type bank interest a person would expect 12 million back from a 400 million dollar deposit.

I don't begrudge the Jacob's family a profit. I just wish they realized they are holding a trust. If all that they wanted was profit they should have their money in the bank. The only worth of the Bruins is that of a entertainment source to the fans of the team and as a repersentation of the city in the arena of hockey. If the team stops being entertaining or if the city gets no prestige from the team than there really is no purpose left.

Winning adds to entertainment and prestigue. The club has cut corners and controlled costs for a number of years during which time I supported them always as doing the smart thing for the good of the game. We are now about to enter armedggedon with the CBA. We have the best player in the game at the peak of his career. We have a decent 10-14 man deep support group around him. It wouldn't take a ton to put us over the top.

I gave the Bruins all my heart for the last 28 years. It's time for them to return my support and that of all the other good fans here. Whether the team goes with something similar to my ideas or in an entirerly other direction as to whom they choose to add... I think the team does need a little help before playoff time.

Spend the money. We have it. Go Bruins go.

 
Old
10-25-2003, 03:51 AM
  #14
misterjaggers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Karlstrom II
...I would start immediately by going after Jagr in Washington. Forget about whatever attitude problem the dude has... when he does show up he is still the top offensive skilled player in the NHL and an unstopable force all by his lonesome. Put him on the second line with Samsonov while Joe and Glen take the top checking of the other team and our offense is better than Colorado's IMHO...
Jagr's a mess right now:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2003Oct20.html

And you can blame this former Miss Slovakia:
http://www.ps-models.de/zoom,475,2

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10-25-2003, 05:49 AM
  #15
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Mike, I like a lot of what you are saying, but getting Jagr could literally kill this franchise for years. You yourself gave the scenario of dealing Thornton. I mean could you imagine trading a 26 year old Thornton because we dealt for a 32 year old Jagr? Wow....that is flat out GM suicide.

I like your creativity, but Jagr is the answer to one thing...disaster.

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10-25-2003, 07:18 AM
  #16
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Originally Posted by Bruwinz20
That was some vintage Karlstrom right there.

.


you bet...and very good to see the Alberta Bruin back !


a tip for newbies when it comes to Michael... Over the years , I cheat and read his last paragraph first...

Just so I know where he's going.


Good to see ya , MDK...

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