HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Winnipeg Jets
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

What to do with Marko Dano?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-11-2017, 12:39 PM
  #51
ps241
Playoff push 2017
 
ps241's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 20,452
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guffman View Post
When you have a guy like Connor knocking on the door, I am expecting our top 9 to develop differently next year...especially if Armia can finally realize his potential.
Possibly but if we have Lowry on the 3rd line in a "shutdown role" and a face puncher on the 4th line then it will be business as usual.

ps241 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 12:45 PM
  #52
Gm0ney
Unicorns salient
 
Gm0ney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,435
vCash: 500
Call me crazy, but the last few meaningless games of the season might have been a good time to audition a skill-based 3rd line like Dano-Petan-Connor instead of whatever the **** Maurice was trying to accomplish with the same old **** he'd been doing all year.

Gm0ney is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 12:46 PM
  #53
surixon
Registered User
 
surixon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,799
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Possibly but if we have Lowry on the 3rd line in a "shutdown role" and a face puncher on the 4th line then it will be business as usual.
Well Connor torched the AHL with Cormier as his C so even if Lowry is the third line C it's highly possible that adding one dynamic player to the line will make the lines offense more potent.

surixon is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 12:57 PM
  #54
buggs
nanoo nanoo
 
buggs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: somewhere flat
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,139
vCash: 162
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Call me crazy, but the last few meaningless games of the season might have been a good time to audition a skill-based 3rd line like Dano-Petan-Connor instead of whatever the **** Maurice was trying to accomplish with the same old **** he'd been doing all year.
You're crazy. Glad to oblige. But I don't disagree with you. I think though that Maurice is set in his ways and he only doubles down when the team wins - don't want to mess with things even though he literally called them exhibition games. Uh, Paul, couldn't you try to experiment a little bit? You know, unshackle Petan from Thorbs even for a couple of shifts? Nah, never mind.

buggs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 01:07 PM
  #55
Guffman
Strait is Great!
 
Guffman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Country: Canada
Posts: 836
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
There's no extrapolation. It's literally his point per hour pace.
It's deceptive when it's heavily built on secondary assists. Furthermore, 20 points over two seasons is pretty telling. It's like saying how amazing Strait's offensive production is after three games.

Guffman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:00 PM
  #56
ps241
Playoff push 2017
 
ps241's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 20,452
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Well Connor torched the AHL with Cormier as his C so even if Lowry is the third line C it's highly possible that adding one dynamic player to the line will make the lines offense more potent.
Not a bad point perhaps they were "training him for the role with Adam"

ps241 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:05 PM
  #57
surixon
Registered User
 
surixon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 11,799
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Not a bad point perhaps they were "training him for the role with Adam"
That has been thought since I saw them assemble that line in the AHL and give it a very long run. It seemed to me they where trying to see how Connor did with a similarly assembled line in the AHL. It was reinforced with how Connor looked with Armia and Lowry in the last game.

surixon is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:41 PM
  #58
Guerzy
free marko
 
Guerzy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Friendly Manitoba
Country: Slovakia
Posts: 38,176
vCash: 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Possibly but if we have Lowry on the 3rd line in a "shutdown role" and a face puncher on the 4th line then it will be business as usual.
I was looking over stats from Chicago and is it possible Chevy/Maurice are "grooming" or playing Lowry for a similar role as Dave Bolland? 12-13 mins per game even strength, PK + PP, 16-17 avg TOI. Obviously with the injuries this year Lowry played some more minutes, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chevy/Maurice deployed Lowry much like Chicago did with Bolland.


Bolland 2010-11



Bolland 2011-12




Lowry 2016-17


Guerzy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:43 PM
  #59
ps241
Playoff push 2017
 
ps241's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 20,452
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by surixon View Post
That has been thought since I saw them assemble that line in the AHL and give it a very long run. It seemed to me they where trying to see how Connor did with a similarly assembled line in the AHL. It was reinforced with how Connor looked with Armia and Lowry in the last game.
Yea it would be interesting to see if he could drive scoring with two guys that have a bit of trouble generating points.

ps241 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:53 PM
  #60
Crocket
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 521
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
His results this year are pretty good. His underlying numbers are very good, he's had to carry around slugs for much of the year. He has shown to be a solid 3rd liner at least, with lots of potential to move up. Unfortunately the Jets have a coach who has no idea how to handle his own roster and he is getting shafted.
Hard to say, his sample is so small. Quenville didn't like him, tough roster though and Maurice "seems" to like him but he has been injured much of time. I know you want to see him be in the top 6 but as soon as he played a some games in succession, he was hurt again. That knee injury cost him dearly unfortunately. I like him on a 3rd line, seems effective when healthy.

Crocket is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:55 PM
  #61
Crocket
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 521
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Possibly but if we have Lowry on the 3rd line in a "shutdown role" and a face puncher on the 4th line then it will be business as usual.
We need a couple guys who can play and punch faces, which Thorbs is neither. The first thing Edmonton did is pickup a few guys that can play and bodyguard McDavid. We don't have that, so guys bully and run our players.

Crocket is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:57 PM
  #62
Gm0ney
Unicorns salient
 
Gm0ney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,435
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crocket View Post
Hard to say, his sample is so small. Quenville didn't like him, tough roster though and Maurice "seems" to like him but he has been injured much of time. I know you want to see him be in the top 6 but as soon as he played a some games in succession, he was hurt again. That knee injury cost him dearly unfortunately. I like him on a 3rd line, seems effective when healthy.
Wasn't he a healthy scratch for the last 6 games of the season?

Gm0ney is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 02:59 PM
  #63
Saintb
Registered User
 
Saintb's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Saintb
Posts: 347
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crocket View Post
We need a couple guys who can play and punch faces, which Thorbs is neither. The first thing Edmonton did is pickup a few guys that can play and bodyguard McDavid. We don't have that, so guys bully and run our players.
I wouldn't mind a guy like Simmonds that is for sure..

Saintb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:06 PM
  #64
ps241
Playoff push 2017
 
ps241's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 20,452
vCash: 50
Good point on Bolland Guerzy.

ps241 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:11 PM
  #65
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 19,303
vCash: 355
Quote:
Originally Posted by uTurris View Post
Would love to see Dano be packaged with Petan (and other prospects) for a star defenseman.

Such as Ekman-Larsson or Ekblad.
I assume there is more to the package than Dano and Petan.

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:13 PM
  #66
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 19,303
vCash: 355
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imcanadianeh View Post
This is how overrated Petan and Dano have become around here.

A trade for either of them does not start with Petan and Dano.
By around here you clearly mean 1 poster right?

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:17 PM
  #67
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 19,303
vCash: 355
Quote:
Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Well Connor torched the AHL with Cormier as his C so even if Lowry is the third line C it's highly possible that adding one dynamic player to the line will make the lines offense more potent.
Not an unreasonable interpretation but I don't think it translates to the NHL. Even though Lowry is much better than Cormier, Connor won't be able to dominate the competition like that. Without skilled linemates he will do next to nothing. It might just be possible that the combination of Connor and Armia can drag Lowry up to 3rd line level. Lowry is going to play most of the game about 50' behind Connor though.

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:18 PM
  #68
Holden Caulfield
Moderator
The Eternal Skeptic
 
Holden Caulfield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 18,025
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crocket View Post
Hard to say, his sample is so small. Quenville didn't like him, tough roster though and Maurice "seems" to like him but he has been injured much of time. I know you want to see him be in the top 6 but as soon as he played a some games in succession, he was hurt again. That knee injury cost him dearly unfortunately. I like him on a 3rd line, seems effective when healthy.
I want to do away with the top 6 mentality altogether. I want them to run 3 scoring lines, balance the talent. They have 9/10 players that can be mixed and matched to create a 3 balanced talented lines that will give other teams fits if they match up the styles properly (Laine, Scheifele, Ehlers, Little, Wheeler, Perreault, Copp, Dano, Connor, Petan). Really think a Matthias - Lowry - Armia 4th line is a great defensive line that can chip in offensively in 10-13 mins ES.

Doesn't matter who is lost to the expansion draft as their are 13 names there that should be everyday players. If it's Armia/Lowry slide Copp down. If it's Perreault/Copp well then you have your top 9 forwards. But they need to be balanced out to have maximized success, IMO.

Like if they lose Lowry for example.

Laine - Scheifele - Ehlers
Connor - Petan - Wheeler
Perreault - Little- Dano
Matthias - Copp - Armia

Obviously the Scheif line is #1 in this hypothetical, but you have matching styles and probably nearly equal contributions from lines 2 and 3. In a hypothetical game without penalties I could see minutes being 18-15-15-12. No way to line match that, would start making teams adjust to the Jets, rather than the Jets adjusting to opponents. Late in the game if trailing just swap Wheeler and Dano if needed going down to 2 lines.

Holden Caulfield is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:30 PM
  #69
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 19,303
vCash: 355
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
I was looking over stats from Chicago and is it possible Chevy/Maurice are "grooming" or playing Lowry for a similar role as Dave Bolland? 12-13 mins per game even strength, PK + PP, 16-17 avg TOI. Obviously with the injuries this year Lowry played some more minutes, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Chevy/Maurice deployed Lowry much like Chicago did with Bolland.


Bolland 2010-11



Bolland 2011-12




Lowry 2016-17

D'you mean like a 3C who plays special teams? Did Bolland do something special with that?

I'm afraid I'm completely missing your point.

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:35 PM
  #70
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 19,303
vCash: 355
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crocket View Post
We need a couple guys who can play and punch faces, which Thorbs is neither. The first thing Edmonton did is pickup a few guys that can play and bodyguard McDavid. We don't have that, so guys bully and run our players.
That whole concept has been torn to shreds so many times it should have died by now.

It is imaginary. It doesn't exist. Nobody bodyguards anybody and if they try it doesn't work.

Who did Edmonton pickup that you would call a bodyguard? Lucic? He's tough but he's not a bodyguard.

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 03:51 PM
  #71
Grind
Stomacheache AllStar
 
Grind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Manitoba
Posts: 6,238
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guffman View Post
Lowry has been utilized in a lot of situations. He plays PP, PK, he has become more reliable in face-offs, he's big and utilizes his body, he is defensively responsible and has some offensive production.

If Lowry was plucked on XD, who do we have as established centres? Not Petan or Roslovic. They both need to develop further before we entrust half of our centre slots to them. I think our time of throwing unproven players into big responsibility positions is coming to a close. I don't see Petan or Roslovic being gifted good spots next year. They'll have to slowly earn their time based on merit.

If you like Dano because he gets in opponents faces, don't forget that Lowry leads the team in hits. If you think we lack a phsyical presence, taking a guy like Lowry out for Dano isn't solving it.

No chance that Dano gets protected over Lowry.
Established centers that are as effective as Lowry are being grossly overrated. They are not difficult to pickup

Grind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 05:42 PM
  #72
MrBoJangelz71
Registered User
 
MrBoJangelz71's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,963
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
Established centers that are as effective as Lowry are being grossly overrated. They are not difficult to pickup
Examples at similiar costs?

MrBoJangelz71 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 07:21 PM
  #73
Guffman
Strait is Great!
 
Guffman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Country: Canada
Posts: 836
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
Established centers that are as effective as Lowry are being grossly overrated. They are not difficult to pickup
Oh? Who would you sign this offseason to replace what Lowry does and how much will he cost?

Guffman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 08:51 PM
  #74
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 18,875
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guffman View Post
It's deceptive when it's heavily built on secondary assists. Furthermore, 20 points over two seasons is pretty telling. It's like saying how amazing Strait's offensive production is after three games.
1) Secondary assists are worth less, but not worthless. Although ~1/3 of your points is not at all what I'd call "heavily". His ratio is 3:2:3 as a Jet, which is a completely normal ratio.

We use OBP which weights these things appropriately, and Dano still comes well above those other players previously posted with the exception of Copp who moves a bit ahead.

If you want just primary points though, Dano as a Jet has paced (1.0/hr) about the same rate in primary points as Lowry has overall in points (1.15) and more than Lowry or Armia in their primary point paces (0.88 and 0.84) over the same timeframe.

2) Twenty points over two seasons can be pretty telling but it can be telling of two things: the player scores bad and/or the player didn't get much ice time. What it tells though is dependent on ice time. The truth is what it tells us for Dano is that he's scored about as much as you could expect given the ice time he has been given. If Marko Dano scored at a first line rate

Adam Lowry put up 18 points in 960 minutes this season.
Marko Dano put up 18 points in 730 minutes between this and last season.

Dano received 76% ice time over the two seasons than Lowry got just this year. Why would we expect him to be a massive scorer in those minutes. If he scored at a first-line pace over the same minutes, he'd have scored just 3 points per season more. So ya, maybe he should have scored like an average first line player and gotten three more points this year with Chris Thorburn.

3) It is not even remotely like Strait because we have two seasons where Dano posted similar numbers in similar situations, because we have on-ice and individual shooting percentages being in areas that should be considered sustainable, and we have a history of performing like that or better unlike Strait who has a history of worse.

Again:
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Dano 2015-16 1.41 points/60
Dano 2016-17 1.56

Lowry 2014-15 1.12
Lowry 2015-16 1.05
Lowry 2016-17 1.10

Armia 2015-16 0.88
Armia 2016-17 1.12

Copp 2015-16 1.42
Copp 2016-17 1.35

Seems pretty consistent for an extrapolation...
It's not deceptive. It's the superior method and an industry standard:
https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/09/10...etrics-matter/

Yes, rates can be inflated by percentages and luck (as can totals), but rates cannot be inflated by ice time (unlike totals).

We can also look into the underlying numbers with Dano to see if there is any evidence that they are indeed inflated inflated, which there is none.


Last edited by garret9: 04-11-2017 at 09:17 PM.
garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 09:17 PM
  #75
Evil Little
Registered User
 
Evil Little's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 4,084
vCash: 1837
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
D'you mean like a 3C who plays special teams? Did Bolland do something special with that?

I'm afraid I'm completely missing your point.
Well Bolland had some success there, then was traded for a nice bounty.

But I think the point is that there are fewer people who are willing to scoff at Bowman loving big men or write "lol, cuz Quenneville" over and over (and over) again.

Many of Maurice's mistakes merely happen to be things that NHL coaches--good and bad--do.

Evil Little is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:33 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2017 All Rights Reserved.