HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Central Division > Winnipeg Jets
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie
Notices

What to do with Marko Dano?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-11-2017, 09:20 PM
  #76
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 19,521
vCash: 500
It's off topic, but Lowry actually did a good of being a net front guy on the PP.

Also, closest 5v5 statistical comps (not WAR models but G/60, A/60, P/60, rel xGF/60, rel xGA/60, etc) to Lowry:
Adam Pyatt
Jordan Martinook
Marty Reasoner
Johan Larsson
Torrey Mitchell
Jay Beagle
Mark Parrish
Chris Clark
Jarret Stoll
Jeff Tambellini
Marcus Foligno
Lance Bouma
Leo Komarov
Zach Smith
Peter Holland
Derek Dorsett
Brian Flynn
Josh Jooris
Joakim Norstrom
Mark Letestu
Brandon Prust
James Sheppard
Jesse Joensuu
Marcel Goc
Joel Armia
Cal Clutterbuck
Colin Stuart
Jeff Halpern

garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 09:25 PM
  #77
Evil Little
Registered User
 
Evil Little's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 4,340
vCash: 1837
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
It's off topic, but Lowry actually did a good of being a net front guy on the PP.
Lol, garret.

Probably just in love with him because he won the scholastic player of the year.


Evil Little is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 09:48 PM
  #78
Grind
Stomacheache AllStar
 
Grind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Manitoba
Posts: 6,429
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
It's off topic, but Lowry actually did a good of being a net front guy on the PP.

Also, closest 5v5 statistical comps (not WAR models but G/60, A/60, P/60, rel xGF/60, rel xGA/60, etc) to Lowry:
Adam Pyatt
Jordan Martinook
Marty Reasoner
Johan Larsson
Torrey Mitchell
Jay Beagle
Mark Parrish
Chris Clark
Jarret Stoll
Jeff Tambellini
Marcus Foligno
Lance Bouma
Leo Komarov
Zach Smith
Peter Holland
Derek Dorsett
Brian Flynn
Josh Jooris
Joakim Norstrom
Mark Letestu
Brandon Prust
James Sheppard
Jesse Joensuu
Marcel Goc
Joel Armia
Cal Clutterbuck
Colin Stuart
Jeff Halpern

I'm pretty glad I decided to check this thread again before I went trolling for comps. You're quick.

Grind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 10:05 PM
  #79
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,183
vCash: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Who knows why but for whatever reason Maurice doesn't see a fit for him. I thought his comments about replacing young players at the bottom of the lineup who he deemed where flatelinning and not fitting with older players who fit better was pretty telling. I'd guess he views Dano and possibly Petan in that light.
With the healthy scratching at the end of the season I don't think there is any doubt of that - for both. I doubt either starts next season with the Jets. Odds are pretty good that both go to the GK's.

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 10:46 PM
  #80
surixon
Registered User
 
surixon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 13,003
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
With the healthy scratching at the end of the season I don't think there is any doubt of that - for both. I doubt either starts next season with the Jets. Odds are pretty good that both go to the GK's.
It's a shame as I think both could have roles if our coach wasn't so rigid.

surixon is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 10:52 PM
  #81
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,183
vCash: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil Little View Post
Well Bolland had some success there, then was traded for a nice bounty.

But I think the point is that there are fewer people who are willing to scoff at Bowman loving big men or write "lol, cuz Quenneville" over and over (and over) again.

Many of Maurice's mistakes merely happen to be things that NHL coaches--good and bad--do.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm still a little puzzled though.

If coaches habitually do something bad shouldn't they be called on it? An error being common doesn't make it less an error. Or in Lowry's case being used in a traditional role is not a good thing when bettsr alternatives are available.

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 11:06 PM
  #82
Guffman
Unregistered User
 
Guffman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,072
vCash: 500
Quote:
Twenty points over two seasons can be pretty telling but it can be telling of two things: the player scores bad and/or the player didn't get much ice time. What it tells though is dependent on ice time.
Dano has never played 40 games in any season. Two franchises have given up on him and many of us suspect that the Jets will steer Vegas into selecting him.

Dano has been a healthy scratch. A bit player like him probably doesn't stay in the line-up unless he's 100% and performing. Lowry, on the other hand, played all 82 games and it's quite likely he wasn't 100% healthy for all of those games. Lowry doesn't get the benefit of a part-time rested schedule like Dano has.

I don't think it's appropriate to project performance based on 30ish games/season against a player that grinded out 82 NHL games a season. Would Dano maintain his metrics if he actually played a full season? I guess we probably won't know since I expect him to be an XD casualty.

Guffman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 11:18 PM
  #83
Ducky10
Playoff Enthusiast
 
Ducky10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 6,065
vCash: 50
Dano is a better player than most people give him credit for. He's been miscast with this team and I'd have no problem with him playing a regular role on a 3rd scoring line.

I like Lowry but the only thing he has over Dano is that he plays Centre.

Ducky10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-11-2017, 11:22 PM
  #84
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 19,521
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
1) Secondary assists are worth less, but not worthless. Although ~1/3 of your points is not at all what I'd call "heavily". His ratio is 3:2:3 as a Jet, which is a completely normal ratio.

We use OBP which weights these things appropriately, and Dano still comes well above those other players previously posted with the exception of Copp who moves a bit ahead.

If you want just primary points though, Dano as a Jet has paced (1.0/hr) about the same rate in primary points as Lowry has overall in points (1.15) and more than Lowry or Armia in their primary point paces (0.88 and 0.84) over the same timeframe.

2) Twenty points over two seasons can be pretty telling but it can be telling of two things: the player scores bad and/or the player didn't get much ice time. What it tells though is dependent on ice time. The truth is what it tells us for Dano is that he's scored about as much as you could expect given the ice time he has been given. If Marko Dano scored at a first line rate

Adam Lowry put up 18 points in 960 minutes this season.
Marko Dano put up 18 points in 730 minutes between this and last season.

Dano received 76% ice time over the two seasons than Lowry got just this year. Why would we expect him to be a massive scorer in those minutes. If he scored at a first-line pace over the same minutes, he'd have scored just 3 points per season more. So ya, maybe he should have scored like an average first line player and gotten three more points this year with Chris Thorburn.

3) It is not even remotely like Strait because we have two seasons where Dano posted similar numbers in similar situations, because we have on-ice and individual shooting percentages being in areas that should be considered sustainable, and we have a history of performing like that or better unlike Strait who has a history of worse.

Again:


It's not deceptive. It's the superior method and an industry standard:
https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/09/10...etrics-matter/

Yes, rates can be inflated by percentages and luck (as can totals), but rates cannot be inflated by ice time (unlike totals).

We can also look into the underlying numbers with Dano to see if there is any evidence that they are indeed inflated inflated, which there is none.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guffman View Post
Dano has never played 40 games in any season. Two franchises have given up on him and many of us suspect that the Jets will steer Vegas into selecting him.

Dano has been a healthy scratch. A bit player like him probably doesn't stay in the line-up unless he's 100% and performing. Lowry, on the other hand, played all 82 games and it's quite likely he wasn't 100% healthy for all of those games. Lowry doesn't get the benefit of a part-time rested schedule like Dano has.

I don't think it's appropriate to project performance based on 30ish games/season against a player that grinded out 82 NHL games a season. Would Dano maintain his metrics if he actually played a full season? I guess we probably won't know since I expect him to be an XD casualty.
https://www.nhl.com/player/jonathan-...ssault-8476539

garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-12-2017, 01:25 AM
  #85
Evil Little
Registered User
 
Evil Little's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 4,340
vCash: 1837
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Thanks for the explanation. I'm still a little puzzled though.

If coaches habitually do something bad shouldn't they be called on it? An error being common doesn't make it less an error. Or in Lowry's case being used in a traditional role is not a good thing when bettsr alternatives are available.
Do we know those are better alternatives? There are players I want to see on the powerplay, there are players I want to see off of it.

There are also players I've wanted to see on the powerplay who did nothing with it, and there are players who I've wanted off the powerplay who actually produce really well.

Evander Kane never had trouble scoring. Until you try to get him to do so on the powerplay and suddenly it's like he's playing with Thorburn. Lowry scored really well in the role he was given and not every better player is going to do better.

Evil Little is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-12-2017, 11:26 PM
  #86
Mortimer Snerd
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,183
vCash: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil Little View Post
Do we know those are better alternatives? There are players I want to see on the powerplay, there are players I want to see off of it.

There are also players I've wanted to see on the powerplay who did nothing with it, and there are players who I've wanted off the powerplay who actually produce really well.

Evander Kane never had trouble scoring. Until you try to get him to do so on the powerplay and suddenly it's like he's playing with Thorburn. Lowry scored really well in the role he was given and not every better player is going to do better.
I wasn't thinking of PP in particular.

Mortimer Snerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2017, 06:27 AM
  #87
Sabrenator
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 645
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Marko Dano isn't Jonathan Marchessault.

Sabrenator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2017, 10:55 AM
  #88
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 19,521
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabrenator View Post
Marko Dano isn't Jonathan Marchessault.
He's in a Marchessault situation...

1) all his numbers suggest he is better than his ice time, by the very same stats that people like me said makes Marchessault a good player

2) multiple organizations gave up on him

The NHL market has a lot of inefficiency to it and until it is better I don't care how many organizations gave up or point totals of low ice time players if the underlying numbers paint a different picture. I know which side has been winning, running up the score, and gaining momentum, and I'm glad for it because I'm on that side and it pays my rent.

garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2017, 11:09 AM
  #89
pucka lucka
Registered User
 
pucka lucka's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Ottawa
Posts: 4,511
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
He's in a Marchessault situation...

1) all his numbers suggest he is better than his ice time, by the very same stats that people like me said makes Marchessault a good player

2) multiple organizations gave up on him

The NHL market has a lot of inefficiency to it and until it is better I don't care how many organizations gave up or point totals of low ice time players if the underlying numbers paint a different picture. I know which side has been winning, running up the score, and gaining momentum, and I'm glad for it because I'm on that side and it pays my rent.
I mean, what has the scientific approach ever done for anybody? I'm gonna ask Aristotle...

pucka lucka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2017, 11:19 AM
  #90
Evil Little
Registered User
 
Evil Little's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 4,340
vCash: 1837
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
I wasn't thinking of PP in particular.
What's the issue then? His penalty killing? I think he's been pretty good on the penalty kill.

The post you were puzzled by was specifically talking about how he doesn't get that much 5-on-5 time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
He's in a Marchessault situation...

1) all his numbers suggest he is better than his ice time, by the very same stats that people like me said makes Marchessault a good player

2) multiple organizations gave up on him

The NHL market has a lot of inefficiency to it and until it is better I don't care how many organizations gave up or point totals of low ice time players if the underlying numbers paint a different picture. I know which side has been winning, running up the score, and gaining momentum, and I'm glad for it because I'm on that side and it pays my rent.
Good luck convincing someone from Pori that Daňo is any good. Those battle line were drawn pretty deep this summer.

Evil Little is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2017, 05:13 PM
  #91
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 19,521
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil Little View Post
What's the issue then? His penalty killing? I think he's been pretty good on the penalty kill.

The post you were puzzled by was specifically talking about how he doesn't get that much 5-on-5 time.



Good luck convincing someone from Pori that Daňo is any good. Those battle line were drawn pretty deep this summer.
It's not like he's being god mode. He's just produced results that suggest he deserves more and better looks.

I mean, Petan I get more with people disagreeing with me. Petan has been Jekyll and Hyde depending on usage, but Dano has just been good regardless of who he is with or his usage.

garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-13-2017, 06:13 PM
  #92
Hank Chinaski
Global Moderator
\_(ツ)_/
 
Hank Chinaski's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: YWG
Country: Canada
Posts: 18,565
vCash: 50
Awards:
Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Raise your hand if you had no clue that Marchessault hit 30 goals and 50 points this season.


Hank Chinaski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-14-2017, 02:57 PM
  #93
Bob E
Registered User
 
Bob E's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Winnerpeg
Posts: 5,971
vCash: 500
I predict Dano scores 20+ goals with Vegas.

Bob E is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-14-2017, 03:27 PM
  #94
Grind
Stomacheache AllStar
 
Grind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Manitoba
Posts: 6,429
vCash: 500
If Vegas takes him I wouldn't be surprised to see him out up 40+ points as soon as next year given there's a good chance he'd be a go-to guy as opposed to the spare part usage he's getting now

Grind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-14-2017, 03:52 PM
  #95
Whileee
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 27,264
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
If Vegas takes him I wouldn't be surprised to see him out up 40+ points as soon as next year given there's a good chance he'd be a go-to guy as opposed to the spare part usage he's getting now
Possible. Considering the Jets forward roster I can't see him getting top 6 usage on the Jets, and might struggle to make the top 9 fairly soon.

Wheeler
Ehlers
Laine
Perreault
Armia
Connor

Whileee is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-14-2017, 06:17 PM
  #96
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
 
garret9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 19,521
vCash: 500
On average, we'd expect an average, 9 point, fourth line player to score about 24 points on the top line, just due to shift of usage.

Now, Dano has been scoring per minute at about 150% the rate of the average fourth line player, so that would give us 36 points with top line minutes and usage.

As a very rough, rough estimate.
This does not account for some players likely improving non-linearly with linemate quality.

garret9 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-14-2017, 06:23 PM
  #97
Grind
Stomacheache AllStar
 
Grind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Manitoba
Posts: 6,429
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Possible. Considering the Jets forward roster I can't see him getting top 6 usage on the Jets, and might struggle to make the top 9 fairly soon.

Wheeler
Ehlers
Laine
Perreault
Armia
Connor
I personally still don't put Armia nor Connor defacto ahead of Dano. Maybe Connor.

That being said, I agree that the jets likely will out both of them ahead of him

Grind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-14-2017, 06:36 PM
  #98
Mud Turtle
Registered User
 
Mud Turtle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,917
vCash: 500
Had we put together a talented 4th line all year with players like Petan, Dano and Copp, instead of plugs like Ghorburn, all three of those players would have likely upped their trade value quite a bit.

Mud Turtle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-15-2017, 02:16 AM
  #99
Whileee
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 27,264
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducky10 View Post
Dano is a better player than most people give him credit for. He's been miscast with this team and I'd have no problem with him playing a regular role on a 3rd scoring line.

I like Lowry but the only thing he has over Dano is that he plays Centre.
The problem for Dano is that he would have a tough time making the Jets top 9. He'd have to beat out Connor and Armia. I think Connor is poised to become a top end winger, and Armia has been very effective, including on the PK.

So, unless the Jets move Armia or Perreault, it's hard to see Dano fitting in the top 9.

I'd be happy with him on the 4th line with some combination of Copp, Petan and Matthias.

However, I also think that Roslovic will be pushing for a roster spot sooner than we might think. I really like his game.

Whileee is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-15-2017, 02:19 AM
  #100
Whileee
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 27,264
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grind View Post
I personally still don't put Armia nor Connor defacto ahead of Dano. Maybe Connor.

That being said, I agree that the jets likely will out both of them ahead of him
I don't disagree, though I think Armia is going to have a very good year next season. He's really putting it together. Dano plays a much simpler game with the puck, which translates quickly to the NHL. Armia has taken some time to figure out how to execute what he does best at the NHL level.

Whileee is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:48 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. @2017 All Rights Reserved.