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Realistic Off-season Expectations from Chevy

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04-10-2017, 12:57 PM
  #1
Mortimer Snerd
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Realistic Off-season Expectations from Chevy

Lately we have had a lot of predictions of next year's roster and talk about off-season moves. There is pretty broad agreement that we need a goalie and a LHD.

Lots of ideas have been floated about FA signings, expansion moves and more standard trades. Some of the suggestions have been more ambitious than others. Some may even be seen as far fetched by most. But many seem reasonable and probably available.

I have become tired of going into the off-season expecting some level of pro-activity from Chevy. He drafts - and he occasionally tinkers, nibbles around the edges. AFAICR he has never identified a specific area of weakness and targeted a solution. Can anyone else recall one?

Jokes about feet up at the cottage aside I don't think he has ever been active in the off-season after the first one when he scrambled to fill a roster. Never mind targeted solutions to problems, he has been relatively inactive in general.

With all that I don't expect much. Like everyone else I have my wish list. I've chosen a goalie and a plan B. I have my preferred FA LD. Those are my wishes. My expectations are for much less.

I expect 4+4+1 at the expansion draft. We lose a good player. I expect we will draft BPA and come away with 1 good prospect and a bunch of hope. I expect to go into next season with the same coaching staff as this year. I expect some contract signings, Little and Maurice both extended. I expect much the same roster as this year minus 1 player to LV and Thor, Postma and Pavelec gone to FA.

Ehlers - Scheifele - Wheeler
Perreault/Connor - Little - Laine
Connor/Perreault - Roslovic - Armia
Matthias - Copp - Dano

Morrissey - Trouba
Enstrom - Buff
Chiarot/Poolman - Myers

Hellebuyck/Hutchinson

Yup. Same goalies. Both played well late in the season. No upgrades needed.

I thought hard about the XD. We really need to go 7+3+1. The only way I see that happening is if Myers is exposed. I couldn't talk myself into that, even to save Lowry.

I know this is a little pessimistic but I think it is also realistic. Improvement in the standings will be from addition by subtraction, growth from our young players, the addition of Connor & Roslovic and a lot less injury. At least that will be the Chevy-plan.

Should I expect more from him based on his past achievements?

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04-10-2017, 01:05 PM
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jamiebez
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I will point out Olli Jokinen as an example of him going out and filling a need (#2C at the time.... which is scary to think about now)

Acquiring Frolik falls into the same category: we needed a Top-6 winger. Of course, that "need" exists for just about any team at any time.

Perreault almost seemed to fall into their laps. It felt like Anaheim didn't qualify him and the other 28 GMs didn't notice

I can't see him ignoring the need for a goalie at this point. Even casual observers point this out as the team's glaring weakness. We might not like who he goes out and gets, but I think he will make a move there.

LD I am not so sure.... I could see Chiarot and Poolman battling it out for that #6 job next year, although I really hope I am wrong.

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04-10-2017, 01:07 PM
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I think he will bring in a veteran goaltender.

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04-10-2017, 01:11 PM
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I've thought quite a bit about this too, Mort.

I've concluded that if we go into the next season pretty much status quo, then Chevy is rolling the dice big time. Most importantly on Hellebuyck. Now, it is possible Helle emerges as an average+ starter next season. And maybe Hutch settles into a decent backup role as well. That is well within the realm of possibility. In this case, the risk will have paid off, as we avoid the extra unnecessary, and likely expensive goaltending contract that could impact extending our other talent under the cap.

That being said, I think this is a very bad risk to take. Any goaltender is a risk, but of course the more proven, the less risk involved. When the rest of the team is ready to go, it's time to fill the holes, not take unnecessary chances.

So it is possible for Chevy to make the wrong decision (unnecessary risk on Helle), but come out smelling like roses.

I honestly don't know what to expect. If I had to guess, I would bet a vet goaltender is signed of at least average quality, but nothing above a bottom pairing D if at all.

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04-10-2017, 01:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian17 View Post
I think he will bring in a veteran goaltender.
Me too. I doubt he gets a LHD. I think they will relay on a healthy Myers and have Poolman/Chairot hold the third spot.

Still, a depth piece would be nice but I doubt he goes for a top 4 defenceman.

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04-10-2017, 01:14 PM
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I have had a theory that when it comes to Jets actions, assume the most cynical thing and you'd be right 70% of the time and pleasantly surprised the other 30%

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04-10-2017, 01:15 PM
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I'll just make some predictions..

I think we possibly see a trade with Vegas involving either an LHD or a Goalie (Raanta being the guy i think we'd have interest in, Vegas picks him and then we send them something perhaps Dano and Petan or something like that, maybe even Hutch). I see that being a possibility. If that's who they like and I've heard some rumors that they do like Raanta) Think he'd be a great guy to have platooning with Helle.

I think You will see them try to improve the LHD (whether that be via depth moves to help the Moose and Jets or whether it be FA (Smith,Quincey types) or Trades, i think they will try to improve the team.

I think they might have to make a decision on Myers soon also... I guess that depends on Trouba moving forward tho.

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04-10-2017, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Puckatron 3000 View Post
I've thought quite a bit about this too, Mort.

I've concluded that if we go into the next season pretty much status quo, then Chevy is rolling the dice big time. Most importantly on Hellebuyck. Now, it is possible Helle emerges as an average+ starter next season. And maybe Hutch settles into a decent backup role as well. That is well within the realm of possibility. In this case, the risk will have paid off, as we avoid the extra unnecessary, and likely expensive goaltending contract that could impact extending our other talent under the cap.

That being said, I think this is a very bad risk to take. Any goaltender is a risk, but of course the more proven, the less risk involved. When the rest of the team is ready to go, it's time to fill the holes, not take unnecessary chances.

So it is possible for Chevy to make the wrong decision (unnecessary risk on Helle), but come out smelling like roses.

I honestly don't know what to expect. If I had to guess, I would bet a vet goaltender is signed of at least average quality, but nothing above a bottom pairing D if at all.
I think this is what will happen, and after hearing the interviews, I'm pretty confident a goalie will be brought in. Both Maurice and Chevy noted that the goaltending needs to get better, Chevy said this pretty strongly. As for D, after the injuries this year I'd think he'd pick one up. And honestly, when the jets D I is healthy, 1 mid-bottom pairing LHD is all we need.

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04-10-2017, 01:32 PM
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Mortimer Snerd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiebez View Post
I will point out Olli Jokinen as an example of him going out and filling a need (#2C at the time.... which is scary to think about now)

Acquiring Frolik falls into the same category: we needed a Top-6 winger. Of course, that "need" exists for just about any team at any time.

Perreault almost seemed to fall into their laps. It felt like Anaheim didn't qualify him and the other 28 GMs didn't notice

I can't see him ignoring the need for a goalie at this point. Even casual observers point this out as the team's glaring weakness. We might not like who he goes out and gets, but I think he will make a move there.

LD I am not so sure.... I could see Chiarot and Poolman battling it out for that #6 job next year, although I really hope I am wrong.
I forgot about Jokinen. That definitely fits the description as I remember it at the time. He went looking for a 2C and got the best one available. Scary that he was that. Some cause for hope for this year though.

I don't see Frolik that way. I may be wrong but I think Frolik was just a target of opportunity. MP was the same, or so it looked, anyway.

Hope you're right about a G.

We need a 2LHD. Poolman battling Chiarot does very little but that is what I expect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian17 View Post
I think he will bring in a veteran goaltender.
We pretty much all agree he should. What gives you faith that he will?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Puckatron 3000 View Post
I've thought quite a bit about this too, Mort.

I've concluded that if we go into the next season pretty much status quo, then Chevy is rolling the dice big time. Most importantly on Hellebuyck. Now, it is possible Helle emerges as an average+ starter next season. And maybe Hutch settles into a decent backup role as well. That is well within the realm of possibility. In this case, the risk will have paid off, as we avoid the extra unnecessary, and likely expensive goaltending contract that could impact extending our other talent under the cap.

That being said, I think this is a very bad risk to take. Any goaltender is a risk, but of course the more proven, the less risk involved. When the rest of the team is ready to go, it's time to fill the holes, not take unnecessary chances.

So it is possible for Chevy to make the wrong decision (unnecessary risk on Helle), but come out smelling like roses.

I honestly don't know what to expect. If I had to guess, I would bet a vet goaltender is signed of at least average quality, but nothing above a bottom pairing D if at all.
Yeah, the bolds. I'm a little manic on the topic of Chevy but I think it is about 4 days, no faith to 1 day, can't believe he won't do the obvious. That may actually be pretty good after 6 years of not doing the obvious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Guffman View Post
Me too. I doubt he gets a LHD. I think they will relay on a healthy Myers and have Poolman/Chairot hold the third spot.

Still, a depth piece would be nice but I doubt he goes for a top 4 defenceman.
That is what we need though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JetsFan815 View Post
I have had a theory that when it comes to Jets actions, assume the most cynical thing and you'd be right 70% of the time and pleasantly surprised the other 30%
I guess that is what I am doing here. Goal and D could fall into the 30%.

Actually if he has a successful off-season I may shed my pessimistic cynicism but right now I just don't have any 'faith' in Chevy. And faith is exactly the right word for how I feel.

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04-10-2017, 01:33 PM
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I have to lower the bar when it comes to this team doing anything in the off-season or I'll get too disappointed, but I do have one absolute requirement this summer:

DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE ****ING GOALIES!

To me this is a realistic demand.

If I go to the home opener in October, and the two goalies I see are Hutch and Helly... I am so done... Keep Helly and bring in a decent vet goalie and I'm OK.

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04-10-2017, 01:43 PM
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Mortimer Snerd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JetBlue420 View Post
I'll just make some predictions..

I think we possibly see a trade with Vegas involving either an LHD or a Goalie (Raanta being the guy i think we'd have interest in, Vegas picks him and then we send them something perhaps Dano and Petan or something like that, maybe even Hutch). I see that being a possibility. If that's who they like and I've heard some rumors that they do like Raanta) Think he'd be a great guy to have platooning with Helle.

I think You will see them try to improve the LHD (whether that be via depth moves to help the Moose and Jets or whether it be FA (Smith,Quincey types) or Trades, i think they will try to improve the team.

I think they might have to make a decision on Myers soon also... I guess that depends on Trouba moving forward tho.
OK but I was trying to avoid turning it into just another thread listing what our needs are. We are near unanimous in broad terms. And we can all see opportunities.

But there have been opportunities and needs in the past with not much done about them. More than none but not much.

So what do you base your predictions on? Is it some belief in Chevy? Or is it more like the needs are just so great and obvious that he has to act?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
I have to lower the bar when it comes to this team doing anything in the off-season or I'll get too disappointed, but I do have one absolute requirement this summer:

DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE ****ING GOALIES!

To me this is a realistic demand.

If I go to the home opener in October, and the two goalies I see are Hutch and Helly... I am so done...
Certainly a realistic demand but is it a realistic expectation, based on past performance?

It is possible that H/H would succeed. At least wait till US Thanksgiving to be "so done". I think it is possible for Chevy to see H/H succeeding as a reasonable possibility. I don't think it is but I think he could convince himself of that. That's what bothers me.

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04-10-2017, 01:47 PM
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Given the press conferences earlier today I'm expecting that a veteran goalie will be brought in this summer.

I'm also expecting another depth forward (Mathias range) to be brought in to help the PK.

I am less sure on defense. They may add a solid depth piece but my gut tells me they may elect to see want a healthy defense does for us next year.

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04-10-2017, 01:52 PM
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Given the press conferences earlier today I'm expecting that a veteran goalie will be brought in this summer.

I'm also expecting another depth forward (Mathias range) to be brought in to help the PK.

I am less sure on defense. They may add a solid depth piece but my gut tells me they may elect to see want a healthy defense does for us next year.
Listening to the presser now.... he literally said "Pavelec's contract is up and he will be moving on...". So there's one veteran goalie off the negotiation list!

My bet is a Brian Elliott type at best, if we go the UFA route.

Someone mentioned swinging a deal with Vegas, which is an idea that has intrigued me for some time now. Petan would be the bargaining chip here: looking at most mock drafts, Vegas will be hard up for scoring talent. I'd think they'd be looking for guys that have a lot of offensive upside but can't crack an NHL roster, and Petan definitely fits that bill. Would LOVE Raanta if that's the case.

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04-10-2017, 01:55 PM
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I think Maurice knows he's on thin ice and has made it clear to Chevy to get goaltending help. It could make such a big difference and there are so many options I would be very surprised if they don't do anything.

I don't expect them to add a defenseman considering they never have, but I really hope Chevy tries at least for a young bottom pairing guy with some potential, and some help for the Moose. A top 4 guy would be nice but I don't see Chevy wanting to pay what it will take.

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04-10-2017, 01:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
So what do you base your predictions on? Is it some belief in Chevy? Or is it more like the needs are just so great and obvious that he has to act?
Here's what I base my prediction for a vet goaltender on.

1. Chevy's non-moves in the past are largely "explainable" (even if you don't agree) that the team was focused on building through D&D. The Jets were never quite good enough to warrant a lot of finishing moves, like a big FA signing, or a "futures for now" trade. So I don't look at his past non-moves as necessarily being predictive for what Chevy will do this off-season. Since the team is now in a very different place.

2. Even Chevy's cautious approach to change will be overruled by both the obviousness of the need, and the pressure from all sides (media, fans, coaching staff, players) to find a goaltending solution.

3. There looks like there may be some good deals out there for goaltenders. Something that won't cost an arm and a leg. Chevy seems to me the kind of guy who is loathe to make a "losing" trade (e.g. something like the Hall-Larsson trade), but will jump at a good deal.

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04-10-2017, 01:59 PM
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I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility they sign some kind of goalie.

Less likely is a quality LHD.

I really don't think there is much they can do outside firing the Coaching staff and/or the GM. That might come after next season if the team doesn't get the job done.

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04-10-2017, 02:04 PM
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I expect no more than the bare minimum from Chevy.

- No new contract for Trouba.
- Little gets close to 6Mx6-7 or enters next season without an extension.
- He'll probably mishandle the XD (go 4-4-1), give up additional assets to protect Perreault/Lowry.
- Sign a backup/unproven starter to split duties with Helle.
- Might add a 6/7 LHD after Postma walks.
- Re-sign Thorburn or another scrub to drop the gloves.

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04-10-2017, 02:28 PM
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I think this is what will happen, and after hearing the interviews, I'm pretty confident a goalie will be brought in. Both Maurice and Chevy noted that the goaltending needs to get better, Chevy said this pretty strongly. As for D, after the injuries this year I'd think he'd pick one up. And honestly, when the jets D I is healthy, 1 mid-bottom pairing LHD is all we need.
That's funny - because Hellebuyck's SV% is better than all but one of Pavelec's seasons here and Chevy never thought it was an issue before.

I think they're going to bring in a goalie, but I'm not holding my breath that the goalie will be among the ones I'm hoping for.

He should ideally bring in a 2LD but it sounds like Chevy needs to see what he's got when all his defensemen are healthy before he goes out and makes an unwise short term move actively tries to improve the team at that position via free agency or trade.

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04-10-2017, 02:37 PM
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Just get 2 players for 4th line and 13 th forward to go with copp and mathias that can give you solid minutes and can pk. No young players. give roslovic 1 more year of experience on moose. Plus a number 1 goalie and they are set.

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04-10-2017, 02:53 PM
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Worst case scenario:
Lose Perreault to expansion draft.
Don't resign Postma, sign worse D-man instead.
Don't sign a goalie, or sign one that isn't an upgrade

My expectations:
Lose 1 of Lowry, Armia, Dano to expansion Draft.
Don't resign Postma, sign worse D-man for cheap or overpay for an equivalent.
Sign (or trade for) a decent goalie, but not a game-changer.

My hope:
Lose Myers to expansion Draft.
Resign Postma to take his place. Sign a good D-man (Brendan Smith maybe?) for the left side.
Sign a top goalie (Darling is my pick).

Best Case Scenario:
Expose one of Myers or Enstrom (waive NMC) in Expansion Draft, but Vegas takes a fwd like Matthias or Copp.
Resign Postma for Pressbox. Sign a good Dman for the left side.
Sign a top Goalie.

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04-10-2017, 03:07 PM
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Off Season Expectations.

Sign a goalie. My call is Darling. No upgrade on D, unless you believe Poolman is an upgrade. Next season's top 6:

Morrissey-Trouba
Toby-Buff
Poolman-Myers

They go 7-3-1 in the expansion draft getting Toby to waive NMC. LV picks Dano instead and Toby plays out his final year.

Brian Little signs an extension. Nothing happens on the Trouba front but no way Overhardt talks contract yet.

We draft a LHD at # 12 in the entry draft.

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04-10-2017, 03:08 PM
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Sounds like PoMo will remain coach of the team, which was my nightmare, but not unexpected with the way Chevy thinks and acts. If next season this team under performs, PoMo or Chevy should then be removed if not both. Enough is enough.

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04-10-2017, 03:14 PM
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Sounds like PoMo will remain coach of the team, which was my nightmare, but not unexpected with the way Chevy thinks and acts. If next season this team under performs, PoMo or Chevy should then be removed if not both. Enough is enough.
I think the organization telegraphed their intentions some time ago.
While there is some optimism with most of our roster it still is a gamble.
I truly think Chevy believes injuries and scheduling did us in.
I don't think Maurice's career record is being taken seriously enough and if the team are also rans again then Chevy and Maurice must be shown the door.
Chevy must get a goalie at the bare minimum.

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04-10-2017, 03:43 PM
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Realistically?

Maurice is back. Dano will go to the draft.

The D won't be augmented.

However, Chevy will go after a veteran goalie.

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04-10-2017, 04:05 PM
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I have had a theory that when it comes to Jets actions, assume the most cynical thing and you'd be right 70% of the time and pleasantly surprised the other 30%
Sadly you are likely very correct. I've thought the same thing multi times over the years.

The best for me was when when my 9 yr old daughter says to me "Dad why can't our goalies stop a puck ever, shouldn't the team fix that?" My 9yr old daughter giving our GM tips to improve the team and she's right. The entire world knows we've had likely the worse goaltending over 6 years on average and yet still no solution.

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