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Old
04-11-2017, 07:27 PM
  #26
Blue Shakehead
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Including Roslo and Stanley that puts us at 11.75 or behind Toronto as they didn't have additional 1st round picks.

Also Toronto would have had a top 10 pick in 2011 but they traded it away.
What? No - Roslovic and Stanley were our 2nd first round picks which means that our prospect pool should be even more impressive than the teams who only had one. You don't include them to make our average draft position look worse. If you draft 1st and 30th overall for 5 years, your average draft position relative to other teams is 1, not 15.


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04-11-2017, 07:56 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by raideralex99 View Post
The best drafting teams make the playoffs.
Yep. Just as soon as those picks make up at least some of your core. This was year 1 where you could say that for the Jets. And they would have been there if you didn't include the drafted players giving you a #1 goalie. I expect them to be solidly in a playoff spot next season once they fix that mistake.

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04-11-2017, 08:01 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
The Jets' average first pick since their arrival in Winnipeg has been 9.5. That's behind only Edmonton (2.8) and Buffalo (8.0). Just ahead of Florida (10.0), Toronto (10.2) and the Islanders (11.0).

So we should expect them to have a pretty good prospect pool based on where they've been picking. But I think they've outperformed even relative to their high average spot.
The Jets have had 8 1st round picks and the total picking positions for all 8 picks is 100 divided by 8 picks is an average of 12.5 per pick. Not sure where that sits comparatively speaking with all the other teams but we're doing very well.

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04-11-2017, 08:30 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Shakehead View Post
What? No - Roslovic and Stanley were our 2nd first round picks which means that our prospect pool should be even more impressive than the teams who only had one. You don't include them to make our average draft position look worse. If you draft 1st and 30th overall for 5 years, your average draft position relative to other teams is 1, not 15.
That's a silly way to look at it since the whole point of this analysis as I take it is to show the Jets haven't been good and have drafted higher. Many teams you've mentioned aka Toronto have their average skewed by trading away what would be high picks, cough Seguin, cough Hamilton. Also it's a bit simplistic since 3 of Toronto's top picks have been in the top 5 whereas only one of ours have been. Buffalo has had two lottory picks and Florida has had 3.

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04-12-2017, 12:42 AM
  #30
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Lets look back at the Winnipeg Jets Draft Picks:

2011:

2011 Entry 7 1 Mark Scheifele - Top offensive player on Jets
2011 Entry 67 3 Adam Lowry - Imposing third line player, great pick
2011 Entry 78 3 Brennan Serville - bust
2011 Entry 119 4 Zach Yuen - bust
2011 Entry 149 5 Austen Brassard- bust
2011 Entry 157 6 Jason Kasdorf - traded to Buffalo
2011 Entry 187 7 Aaron Harstad - bust

2012 Entry 9 1 Jacob Trouba - arguably top pick of 2012 draft, Jets best defenseman
2012 Entry 39 2 Lukas Sutter - biggest bust in 2.0 history not playing hockey
2012 Entry 70 3 Scott Kosmachuk - AHL
2012 Entry 130 5 Connor Hellebuyck - great pick, young and may one day be an elite goalie
2012 Entry 160 6 Ryan Olsen - AHL
2012 Entry 190 7 Jamie Phillips - AHL

2013 Entry 13 1 Josh Morrissey - Jets best LHD, 21 years old
2013 Entry 43 2 Nicolas Petan -upcoming prospect
2013 Entry 59 2 Eric Comrie - possible future Jets goalie
2013 Entry 84 3 Jimmy Lodge -AHL
2013 Entry 91 3 JC Lipon - AHL
2013 Entry 104 4 Andrew Copp - great find. reliable fourth line Centre
2013 Entry 114 4 Jan Kostalek - AHL
2013 Entry 127 5 Tucker Poolman- late bloomer, signed contract with Jets
2013 Entry 190 7 Brenden Kichton- AHL
2013 Entry 194 7 Marcus Karlstrom - bust

2014 Entry 9 1 Nikolaj Ehlers - great pick. Solid top 6 forward
2014 Entry 69 3 Jack Glover - bust
2014 Entry 99 4 Chase De Leo - AHL
2014 Entry 101 4 Nelson Nogier - good pick, AHL, possible future Jets D
2014 Entry 129 5 C.J. Franklin - college
2014 Entry 164 6 Pavel Kraskovsky- KHL
2014 Entry 192 7 Matt Ustaski - bust

2015/16 too early to comment on.


Last edited by Jets4Life: 04-12-2017 at 12:52 AM.
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04-12-2017, 10:01 PM
  #31
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2015/16

- 17th Kyle Connors -Elite Goal scoring ability with speed to burn.

- 25th OA Roslovic - Led AHL team in scoring in His rookie season and his ELC slides this year.

2nd round- Harkins just signed his first ELC contract.

3rd round - Foley..... hard nosed power forward going into 3rd college season.

4th SPACEK- 85 points in 59 WHL games. Will join the Moose next year.

6 th round- Appleton going into 3rd season at MSU . Dark horse prospect of mine. I think he is going to have monster college season next year and sign with the Jets in March 2018.

7th Niku - has a Nhl chance ...... cannot be any worse than Stait/ Melchiori .....can he?

GENNARO found his scoring touch this year in his last year in the WHL.... Does he sign a ELC b4 June 1st or does he re enter the draft.... ? ....... If he does re enter the NHL draft ?.... and if so when is he selected in this draft which is a lot weaker than the 2015 draft.

My guess is in the 4th round.

2015/16- Not...... to early to comment on.

I THINK 2015 draft is going to be the Jets 2.0 best draft. ( A real game Changer)

I think CONNOR and Roslovic have the potential to be our Getzlaf and and Perry (Ana)

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04-13-2017, 03:18 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DEANYOUNGBLOOD17 View Post
2015/16

- 17th Kyle Connors -Elite Goal scoring ability with speed to burn.

- 25th OA Roslovic - Led AHL team in scoring in His rookie season and his ELC slides this year.

2nd round- Harkins just signed his first ELC contract.

3rd round - Foley..... hard nosed power forward going into 3rd college season.

4th SPACEK- 85 points in 59 WHL games. Will join the Moose next year.

6 th round- Appleton going into 3rd season at MSU . Dark horse prospect of mine. I think he is going to have monster college season next year and sign with the Jets in March 2018.

7th Niku - has a Nhl chance ...... cannot be any worse than Stait/ Melchiori .....can he?

GENNARO found his scoring touch this year in his last year in the WHL.... Does he sign a ELC b4 June 1st or does he re enter the draft.... ? ....... If he does re enter the NHL draft ?.... and if so when is he selected in this draft which is a lot weaker than the 2015 draft.

My guess is in the 4th round.

2015/16- Not...... to early to comment on.

I THINK 2015 draft is going to be the Jets 2.0 best draft. ( A real game Changer)

I think CONNOR and Roslovic have the potential to be our Getzlaf and and Perry (Ana)
I don't know if it's just me trying to feel lucky or accommodated as a Jets fan with all these great prospects under our belt but wasn't Harkins top 25 and under in most Draft Rankings that year, also he's doing pretty well in the minor leagues with over a point per game and was apparently one of the best 200ft Forwards of that draft(Obviously Disregarding McDavid and Eichel), I think Harkins will be a very good Moose player next season but I hope to see him and Roslovic on the same line so they can hurt opposing AHL teams.
I could definitely see this draft as being similar to what the Ducks got out of the 2003 Draft for us Jets fans.

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04-19-2017, 09:03 AM
  #33
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I really don't see how we are the "best" drafting team in the NHL.

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04-19-2017, 10:01 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by jorbjorb View Post
I really don't see how we are the "best" drafting team in the NHL.
Some team is. If it's not the Jets, which team has drafted better since 2011?

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04-19-2017, 10:10 AM
  #35
DEANYOUNGBLOOD17
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Jets drafting in the 1st round has been good. (above average.)

For the rest of the rounds they are barely holding water.

With the exception of 2015. I really like our picks in 2015 and think that the 2015 draft will define our team in the future.

A lot of other teams did very well in the 2015 draft as it was very deep.

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04-19-2017, 10:22 AM
  #36
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I'd say we are above average in the later rounds but there are teams better than us.

We got a quality depth piece in 2011 in Lowry. So 2 players is average.

In 2012 while early Helle looks to atleast be a good backup so that's an average draft but could be excellent if he turns into an above average starter.

2013: the JETS have Copp and Petan as NHL players from beyond the 1st round. Poolman looks like he could be an NHL defenseman and Comrie still has potential. 3 to 4 NHL players from beyond the first round is well above average.

2014. This year was looking pretty bleak but Nogier's performance this year has given us hope to get a second NHL level player out of 2014. That would put us average.

Way too soon to say for any of the other draft years although 2015 looks incredibly promising.

Averaging over 2 NHL players per draft puts them well above average.

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04-19-2017, 10:40 AM
  #37
koth
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It's easy to say we're a good drafting team or a bad drafting team, but without providing any comparables, none of it really holds any water.

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04-19-2017, 11:17 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Some team is. If it's not the Jets, which team has drafted better since 2011?
pretty easy to pick ok players when you're always picking early.

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04-19-2017, 11:19 AM
  #39
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Tampa Bay is the best drafting team since 2011

Kucherov
Palat
Dochtin
Drouin
Vasilevsky
Killorn
Point
Deangelo (now in Arizona, but a good player with off ice issues)
Paquette
Namestnikov
TJ (Undrafted FA)

Quote:
The Jets' average first pick since their arrival in Winnipeg has been 9.5. That's behind only Edmonton (2.8) and Buffalo (8.0). Just ahead of Florida (10.0), Toronto (10.2) and the Islanders (11.0).
They better be getting quality if that is their average first pick. Their acquired picks (Stanley and Roslovic) are still to be determined. Roslovic looks promising and we all know the story on Stanley


Last edited by DRW204: 04-19-2017 at 11:24 AM.
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04-19-2017, 12:48 PM
  #40
Whileee
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Originally Posted by DRW204 View Post
Tampa Bay is the best drafting team since 2011

Kucherov
Palat
Dochtin
Drouin
Vasilevsky
Killorn
Point
Deangelo (now in Arizona, but a good player with off ice issues)
Paquette
Namestnikov
TJ (Undrafted FA)



They better be getting quality if that is their average first pick. Their acquired picks (Stanley and Roslovic) are still to be determined. Roslovic looks promising and we all know the story on Stanley
Scheifele
Lowry
Trouba
Hellebuyck
Morrissey
Petan
Copp
Ehlers
Connor
Roslovic
Laine

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04-19-2017, 01:27 PM
  #41
Evil Little
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
The Jets' average first pick since their arrival in Winnipeg has been 9.5. That's behind only Edmonton (2.8) and Buffalo (8.0). Just ahead of Florida (10.0), Toronto (10.2) and the Islanders (11.0).
Is 'mushy middle' not a thing anymore? Because that was everyone's greatest criticism of Jets management three or four years ago.

'You'll never get impact players at 9th overall. You can't expect to outdraft the rest of the NHL.'


Fast forward to today where they've appeared to get the best or second best player at 7th and 9th, top five talent at 9th, top 10 or better talent at 17th and suddenly--'oh, well they've been drafting so high of course they've drafted better than some teams who have outright tanked.'

Averages hardly tell the whole story, anyhow. In those six drafts the Oilers picked in the top five 5 times, Sabres twice, Panthers 3 times, Leefs 3 times, and the Islanders 3 times.

The Jets have picked in the top 5 once. Same as the Lightning and the Flames and fewer than the Avalanche, Blue Jackets, and Hurricanes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
So we should expect them to have a pretty good prospect pool based on where they've been picking. But I think they've outperformed even relative to their high average spot.
Uh, I mean I agree...

Quote:
Originally Posted by jorbjorb View Post
pretty easy to pick ok players when you're always picking early.
More difficult to pick terrific players.

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04-19-2017, 01:52 PM
  #42
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Picks since 2011

Players drafted / At least 1 NHL game / Greater than 50 NHL games
Anaheim 38 /16 /10
Boston 39 /14 /5
Buffalo 50 /18 /8
Calgary 40 /15 /6
Carolina 44 /15 /9
Chicago 52 /13 /9
Colorado 38 /11 /4
Columbus 41 /16 /8
Dallas 45 /13 /7
Detroit 43 /12 /8
Edmonton 47 /14 /8
Florida 44 /14 /8
Los Angeles 39 /11 /4
Minnesota 39 /8 /3
Montreal 39 /11 /6
Nashville 48 /13 /6
New Jersey 38 /12 /6
NY Islanders 42 /13 /4
NY Rangers 35 /6 /3
Ottawa 42 /16 /7
Philadelphia 44 /10 /6
Phoenix 45 /13 /6
Pittsburgh 35 /14 /5
San Jose 41 /10 /6
St. Louis 44 /10 /4
Tampa 45 /16 /8
Toronto 46 /13 /5
Vancouver 40 /13 /7
Washington 37 /8 /4
Winnipeg 44 /17 /9
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04-19-2017, 02:11 PM
  #43
Gm0ney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Evil Little View Post
Is 'mushy middle' not a thing anymore? Because that was everyone's greatest criticism of Jets management three or four years ago.

'You'll never get impact players at 9th overall. You can't expect to outdraft the rest of the NHL.'


Fast forward to today where they've appeared to get the best or second best player at 7th and 9th, top five talent at 9th, top 10 or better talent at 17th and suddenly--'oh, well they've been drafting so high of course they've drafted better than some teams who have outright tanked.'

Averages hardly tell the whole story, anyhow. In those six drafts the Oilers picked in the top five 5 times, Sabres twice, Panthers 3 times, Leefs 3 times, and the Islanders 3 times.

The Jets have picked in the top 5 once. Same as the Lightning and the Flames and fewer than the Avalanche, Blue Jackets, and Hurricanes.



Uh, I mean I agree...



More difficult to pick terrific players.
The Jets have done fine in the 'mushy middle' I think - Morrissey and Connor being right in the heart of that mush. Top 10 isn't the mushy middle though. Top 5 is the high end and we've only had one pick there - and Laine's about as good as you could hope for at 2nd overall.

Top 5 - [Jets' pick]
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, R. Strome [7. Scheifele]
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, G. Reinhart, Rielly [9. Trouba]
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones, E. Lindholm [13. Morrissey]
2014: Ekblad, S. Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Dal Colle [9. Ehlers]
2015: McDavid, Eichel, D. Strome, Marner, Hanifin [17. Connor]
2016: Matthews, [2. Laine], Dubois, Puljujarvi, Juolevi

Scheifele beats his top 5 class. Trouba beats his top 5 class. Morrissey...we'll see - 2013 is stiffer competition than the previous two years. Ehlers should be somewhere in that top 5 for his year...though so should Nylander. A bit early to say for Connor, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out better than Strome and Hanifin. Laine's right where he should be.

The Jets first pick has been arguably been better than any other single team over this period.

No home runs outside of the 1st though. And that's where you'd hope the huge scouting staff would be able to unearth some gems. But, it's only 6 drafts in at this point - and too early to say about late round surprises in at least half of those.

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04-19-2017, 02:15 PM
  #44
koth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbcwpg View Post
Picks since 2011

Players drafted / At least 1 NHL game / Greater than 50 NHL games
Anaheim 38 /16 /10
Boston 39 /14 /5
Buffalo 50 /18 /8
Calgary 40 /15 /6
Carolina 44 /15 /9
Chicago 52 /13 /9
Colorado 38 /11 /4
Columbus 41 /16 /8
Dallas 45 /13 /7
Detroit 43 /12 /8
Edmonton 47 /14 /8
Florida 44 /14 /8
Los Angeles 39 /11 /4
Minnesota 39 /8 /3
Montreal 39 /11 /6
Nashville 48 /13 /6
New Jersey 38 /12 /6
NY Islanders 42 /13 /4
NY Rangers 35 /6 /3
Ottawa 42 /16 /7
Philadelphia 44 /10 /6
Phoenix 45 /13 /6
Pittsburgh 35 /14 /5
San Jose 41 /10 /6
St. Louis 44 /10 /4
Tampa 45 /16 /8
Toronto 46 /13 /5
Vancouver 40 /13 /7
Washington 37 /8 /4
Winnipeg 44 /17 /9
By this comparison, we would be one of the better drafting teams in the NHL.

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04-19-2017, 02:21 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by koth View Post
By this comparison, we would be one of the better drafting teams in the NHL.
Or Atlanta left us with empty cupboards before the drafts, so we hadn't no choice but to play these young players.

One reason why our rookies have developed so nicely is because they are given a chance to play. We had to build a core while many other teams already had one to begin with.

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04-19-2017, 02:29 PM
  #46
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Or Atlanta left us with empty cupboards before the drafts, so we hadn't no choice but to play these young players.

One reason why our rookies have developed so nicely is because they are given a chance to play. We had to build a core while many other teams already had one to begin with.
Oh sure, just throw a wrench into it.

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04-19-2017, 02:31 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Scheifele
Lowry
Trouba
Hellebuyck
Morrissey
Petan
Copp
Ehlers
Connor
Roslovic
Laine
TB was also playoff teams those years and not picking within top 10 4/6 times. Also Kucherov is better than any guy that the jets have drafted (Chef is close, Laine possibly) and they got him in the 2nd. Give me Vas over Helle. Trouba trumps all TB Dmen though. paquette+namestnikov > lowry+copp, id give the edge ehlers > drouin.

Connor and Roslovic havent done anything substantial in the NHL yet so theyre still TBD

Then you add Killorn, Point, Palat (7th round!), TJ...i think TB has the edge in depth, WPG might have an edge in elite talent with picking high

I give the edge to TB since they dont have the luxury of picking early. WPG is not a bad drafting team, but they have the luxury of picking much earlier


Last edited by DRW204: 04-19-2017 at 02:45 PM.
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04-19-2017, 02:44 PM
  #48
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The Jets have done fine in the 'mushy middle' I think - Morrissey and Connor being right in the heart of that mush. Top 10 isn't the mushy middle though. Top 5 is the high end and we've only had one pick there - and Laine's about as good as you could hope for at 2nd overall.

Top 5 - [Jets' pick]
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, R. Strome [7. Scheifele]
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, G. Reinhart, Rielly [9. Trouba]
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones, E. Lindholm [13. Morrissey]
2014: Ekblad, S. Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Dal Colle [9. Ehlers]
2015: McDavid, Eichel, D. Strome, Marner, Hanifin [17. Connor]
2016: Matthews, [2. Laine], Dubois, Puljujarvi, Juolevi

Scheifele beats his top 5 class. Trouba beats his top 5 class. Morrissey...we'll see - 2013 is stiffer competition than the previous two years. Ehlers should be somewhere in that top 5 for his year...though so should Nylander. A bit early to say for Connor, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out better than Strome and Hanifin. Laine's right where he should be.

The Jets first pick has been arguably been better than any other single team over this period.

No home runs outside of the 1st though. And that's where you'd hope the huge scouting staff would be able to unearth some gems. But, it's only 6 drafts in at this point - and too early to say about late round surprises in at least half of those.
We're totally on the same page here, though I'd say Hellebuyck is well on his way to being one of those late round home runs; regardless of the usage concerns that many have, but I don't seem to share, Lowry was an excellent 3rd round pick; Copp has outproduced his draft position, again, usage qualms notwithstanding.

And, given time, I think a player like Poolman could end up as valuable as, say, Brandon Carlo. Not to mention the Euro talent in 2015.

In time, they'll eventually unearth a top 6 forward/top 3 defenceman after the third round, but that's just dumb luck anyway and I think less relevant and valuable--to take your analogy an awkward further step--than a high OPS in the top half of the draft.

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04-19-2017, 02:45 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by DRW204 View Post
TB was also playoff teams those years and not picking within top 10 4/6 times. Also Kucherov is better than any guy that the jets have drafted (Chef is close, Laine possibly) and they got him in the 2nd. Give me Vas over Helle. Trouba trumps all TB Dmen though. Lowry and Copp are basically a wash with pacquette

Connor and Roslovic havent done anything in the NHL so theyre still TBD

Then you add Drouin, Point, Palat, TJ...i think TB has the edge in depth, WPG might have an edge in elite talent with picking high

I give the edge to TB since they dont have the luxury of picking early. WPG is not a bad drafting team, but they have the luxury of picking much earlier
Tampa is an excellent drafting team as well but they have also had high picks in the years you mentioned.

Drouin is a third overall pick and Koeeck was a 10th overall pick. The Jets have had 2 more top 10 picks in that same period. The Jets have easily outperformed the Lightning in first round picks over that time period imo whereas the Lightning have gotten a couple of impact players late which gives them the edge in that area of the draft.

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04-19-2017, 02:59 PM
  #50
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Tampa is an excellent drafting team as well but they have also had high picks in the years you mentioned.

Drouin is a third overall pick and Koeeck was a 10th overall pick. The Jets have had 2 more top 10 picks in that same period. The Jets have easily outperformed the Lightning in first round picks over that time period imo whereas the Lightning have gotten a couple of impact players late which gives them the edge in that area of the draft.
No doubt that the jets have outperformed them within the top 10, having two more picks help lol (especially one being a lottery pick)

The jets obviously have more high-end talent due to their top 10 picks (chef, trouba, ehlers, laine) vs just Drouin

Id argue that TBL's depth is superior to the Jets' though currently however the Jets can overtake that if Connor and Roslovic pan out.

The point im trying to make is that TBL is great at drafting despite having less probability of landing an elite prospect. if you put the list of players side by side they're pretty close (again, i give the edge for TBL currently due to depth of contributing NHLers), but when you are given the fact that TBL's picks are much later I think they get the edge

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