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Old
04-15-2017, 10:47 AM
  #76
ducky
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I am interested tor see if Roslovic makes the top 9 in his rookie year. Can Connor play RW?

Ehlers - Scheifele- Wheeler
Laine - Little - Connor/Armia
Perreault- Roslovic/Petan - Armia/Connor
Matthias/Copp- Lowry - Armia /Dano/tanev

Morrissey - Trouba
New guy - Byfuglien
Enstrom/Poolman- Myers

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04-15-2017, 02:32 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by ducky View Post
I am interested tor see if Roslovic makes the top 9 in his rookie year. Can Connor play RW?

Ehlers - Scheifele- Wheeler
Laine - Little - Connor/Armia
Perreault- Roslovic/Petan - Armia/Connor
Matthias/Copp- Lowry - Armia /Dano/tanev

Morrissey - Trouba
New guy - Byfuglien
Enstrom/Poolman- Myers
We have enough offense. I'm hoping we add defensive players. We don't need anymore offensive rookies that need to grow defensively. That will keep the mediocrity in full swing.

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04-15-2017, 04:49 PM
  #78
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We have enough offense. I'm hoping we add defensive players. We don't need anymore offensive rookies that need to grow defensively. That will keep the mediocrity in full swing.
Best defense is keeping the puck out of your defensive zone.

It's why Wheeler and Perreault have some of the Jets' best defensive impacts despite not being good defensively. Yes, there will be exceptions (ex: Byfuglien actually has a bad defensive impact), but for the most part "defensive" players are just bad players.

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04-15-2017, 04:52 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Best defense is keeping the puck out of your defensive zone.

It's why Wheeler and Perreault have some of the Jets' best defensive impacts despite not being good defensively. Yes, there will be exceptions (ex: Byfuglien actually has a bad defensive impact), but for the most part "defensive" players are just bad players.
Florida and arizona agree with you

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04-15-2017, 05:02 PM
  #80
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Florida and arizona agree with you
Florida and Arizona are not teams that pay me, those are four different teams.

But on a serious note, teams that I know for a fact that have real decision makers that would also agree with the previous statement:
Boston
Carolina
Chicago
Columbus
Detroit
Florida
Los Angeles
Minnesota
New Jersey
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Phillidelphia
San Jose
St. Louis
Tampa Bay
Washington
Winnipeg
(If you are smart, I just reduced the sample of which are the four teams I consult with)

If you were talking about "Analytics" 29/30 teams have been confirmed to either have in house analytics teams or outsource to companies like my own, and it will soon be 30/31 with Vegas. Anaheim is an unknown, which does not even mean no.

As an aside: Arizona, honestly, I disagree with how they do things. They are all into "tracking" looking into zone entries and exits more like a measure of impact instead of being a layer of how players use statistics.


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Old
04-15-2017, 06:01 PM
  #81
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Regarding the first bolded...do you think we get Fleury for Chiarot/Mel and a late pick/prospect? If that prospect is Connor okay but I am not willing to trade Connor.
The second bolded you will have to explain.....how does signing Thorbs help us in any way?
If we trade Stu, which D man do we expose?

I think Fleury is what we want Logan Stanley to be, but 2 years ahead. I don't think his stock has fallen that much. I don't know if Enstrom, with one year left, and numbers in decline, could get us Fleury. Carolina is a young team, they could use a vet, and there is not a team that needs a playoff appearance to change their bottom line.

We can not come back with Enstrom-Buff, it has been 7 years since they were effective together, all the advanced stats should warn against them being paired.

Enstrom-Myers have had better success, maybe we give them another chance, out of loyalty. Then it is some combination of Poolman, Chiarot, or a FA to play with Buff.

Stuart maybe captains the Moose next year, I forgot that Benny is an RFA, and under the rules I am not sure Melchiori is able to be exposed.

I expect 7-3-1 though, that is why Thorburn is signed. But not sure of anything, Enstrom's NMC is a thorn. If he waived it, would Vegas take Dano anyways? The threats of retirement, or injury would probably dissuade their management from picking him.

If it is 8-1, Perreault is probably lost.

One thing to watch is our goaltending. We have 5 goalies to find spots for next year: Hellebuyck, Hutch, Comrie, Phillips, and Berdin are in the fight, and consensus is that the Jets need a 1B, to add to the fold. Do we trade a higher rated prospect like Comrie to make room for a true #1 platoon goalie, not a prospective one?

Comrie, Lemieux, and a 2nd for Raanta?

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04-15-2017, 06:39 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Best defense is keeping the puck out of your defensive zone.

It's why Wheeler and Perreault have some of the Jets' best defensive impacts despite not being good defensively. Yes, there will be exceptions (ex: Byfuglien actually has a bad defensive impact), but for the most part "defensive" players are just bad players.
We were top 5 in scoring with all of our young forwards almost garuneteed to get better. Still missed the playoffs. All we need is better defense. That's the actions we should take. If players. Different coaching whatever works. We need to do it or we miss the playoffs again next year. We don't need 3 more rookies coming in. Just brings more excuses

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04-15-2017, 06:41 PM
  #83
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We have the talent now to run 3 scoring lines plus the Lowry checking line. The problem is that Maurice is stuck on Lowry as 3C no matter what. That means that we have a 1 scoring line, a 2 scoring line, a 3 checking line and, like someone else mentioned, a 4 throw away line.
We are one of very few teams that have the forward talent to run 3 very good offensive lines and my fear is that Maurice's old way of thinking will force us to lose some very good young offensive players for next to nothing.
If they don't get a chance to show what they can do with other talented players, some other Team will scoop them up for cheap and they likely go on to be excellent players in this league... for other teams.

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04-15-2017, 06:52 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by D1G View Post
We were top 5 in scoring with all of our young forwards almost garuneteed to get better. Still missed the playoffs. All we need is better defense. That's the actions we should take. If players. Different coaching whatever works. We need to do it or we miss the playoffs again next year. We don't need 3 more rookies coming in. Just brings more excuses
Jets were also 12th in number of unblocked shots against per minute at evens.
They were also 16th in expected even strength save percentage based on shot quality.
They pulled this off with significant injuries to their entire group.

They were 29th in actual save percentage... that's not on defense.

Quote:
It’s not the lack of defensive skill of their forwards, nor their blue-line group being “overly offensive minded.” It starts and ends in net with the Jets.

Now, nothing is perfect. The Jets could indeed use more shot repression. The Jets could also use better preventing quality chances against. But, the Jets could also use a lot more goalscoring too. (They probably could have also used a lot better health on their top players)
https://jetsnation.ca/2017/04/06/by-...oving-forward/


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04-15-2017, 07:01 PM
  #85
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Also, if we improve our goals against by x number of goals per game but hurt our goals for by a greater number of goals against, then the trade off actually hurts us in the long run.

In fact, the trade off is not 1:1 in adding offense vs defense for two reasons:

1) Offense drives success more than defense as you have more control over it.
It's difficult to explain, but the best way I've figured is to put it like this: generally speaking, you have five players driving offense and six player driving defense due to goaltending.

2) The better team you are, the higher scoring you want games to be, ceteris paribus.
The lower scoring game you play, the more luck controls the outcome of the game.

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04-15-2017, 07:03 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Jets were also 12th in number of unblocked shots against per minute at evens.
They were also 16th in expected even strength save percentage based on shot quality.
They pulled this off with significant injuries to their entire group.

They were 29th in actual save percentage... that's not on defense.


https://jetsnation.ca/2017/04/06/by-...oving-forward/
I see your point I just can't agree. For me it's all defensive play in the reasoning for why we missed the playoffs. And it comes from young players learning on the job.
Couple years ago The excuse was " we need to evaluate our defense before we can evaluate Pav". Now it's on the goalie ? When helly is clearly better then pav.

There is two reasons imo. Crappy coaching and the players are young and learning how to play D. Now these to reasons can be the cause of one another. But we do not need anymore scoring ( it would help ) but it should not be on the top priority list, especially trying to get more scoring from rookies( Connor , roslo ) that sacrifices for Good D play

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04-15-2017, 07:05 PM
  #87
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I see your point I just can't agree. For me it's all defensive play in the reasoning for why we missed the playoffs. And it comes from young players learning on the job.
Couple years ago The excuse was " we need to evaluate our pmderenae before we can evaluate Pav". Now it's on the goalie ? When helly is clearly better then pav.

There is two reasons imo. Crappy coaching and the players are young and learning how to play D. Now these to reasons can be the cause of one another. But we do not need anymore scoring ( it would help ) but it should not be on the top priority list, especially trying to get more scoring from rookies( Connor , roslo ) that sacrifices for Good D play
We could have evaluated our defense. That was just an excuse.

Hellebuyck had a bad season. Hutch and Pavelec had even worse.
Hellebuyck has historically been better which is why I'm not calling out for him to be sent into the sun like I was with Pavelec.

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04-15-2017, 07:09 PM
  #88
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The fact is that when we just let this offensively gifted team play, we win FAR more games than when we handcuff them with over-coaching.

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04-15-2017, 07:14 PM
  #89
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The fact is that when we just let this offensively gifted team play, we win FAR more games than when we handcuff them with over-coaching.
Yes. I remember Maurice staying that he let's the offensive players do their thing. It's not a coincedence our m offense is basicly the only thing we excelled at. It was the one thing Maurice had the less input on


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04-15-2017, 07:16 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
We could have evaluated our defense. That was just an excuse.

Hellebuyck had a bad season. Hutch and Pavelec had even worse.
Hellebuyck has historically been better which is why I'm not calling out for him to be sent into the sun like I was with Pavelec.
Helly had a fairly ok season. It was the excuse of evaluating him and not getting a real goalie to challenge or help him. It was Pavs contract that stopped us from getting another goalie his year. But that's another can of worms lol

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04-15-2017, 07:17 PM
  #91
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Also, if we improve our goals against by x number of goals per game but hurt our goals for by a greater number of goals against, then the trade off actually hurts us in the long run.

In fact, the trade off is not 1:1 in adding offense vs defense for two reasons:

1) Offense drives success more than defense as you have more control over it.
It's difficult to explain, but the best way I've figured is to put it like this: generally speaking, you have five players driving offense and six player driving defense due to goaltending.

2) The better team you are, the higher scoring you want games to be, ceteris paribus.
The lower scoring game you play, the more luck controls the outcome of the game.
Wanting someone on the 4th line who can chip in offensively play sound defence can be used on pk instead of petan or dano does not mean you are trying to score less goals since you are about 5th in scoring without their help at all . Acctually your offence should go up.

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04-15-2017, 07:25 PM
  #92
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Wanting someone on the 4th line who can chip in offensively play sound defence can be used on pk instead of petan or dano does not mean you are trying to score less goals since you are about 5th in scoring without their help at all . Acctually your offence should go up.
It definitely can. Thorburn's defensive impact is actually not bad as a fourth line player, but due to lack of offense, penalty differential and such, he was worth about a full win in the standings worse than Petan... and Petan was not good at all defensively.

On the PK, I think the trouble is on net and on the blue line. Jets don't really have a PL forward issue. Also, PK skill is very different than defensive skill. Grant Clitsome is still one of the best PK defenders the Jets have dressed and he's not at all what I'd call good defensively.

Dano was actually good defensively, as an aside.

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04-15-2017, 08:38 PM
  #93
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What about this one?

Laine - Scheifele - Wheeler
Connor - Little - Ehlers
MP - Roslovic - Armia
Copp - Lowry - Dano

Morrissey - Trouba
UFA - Byfuglien
Enstrom - Myers

Halak 45-50 games Helle 32-37 games
Petan and Lipon go to Vegas for a 4th rounder for drafting Matthias.
Tanev, Chiarot and Postma in the pressbox with Stu on the Moose.

1PP
Laine Scheif Connor Ehlers Trouba
2PP
Armia Little Wheeler Buff (screening goalie) Morrissey

1PK
Trouba Morrissey Armia Lowry
2PK
Myers Enstrom Copp Scheif

Trouba and Morrissey should get about 24 minutes a game of ice time with Buff and his partner getting about 21 minutes. Enstrom and Myers should have no problem taking up the remaining 15 minutes.

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04-15-2017, 09:09 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Also, if we improve our goals against by x number of goals per game but hurt our goals for by a greater number of goals against, then the trade off actually hurts us in the long run.

In fact, the trade off is not 1:1 in adding offense vs defense for two reasons:

1) Offense drives success more than defense as you have more control over it.
It's difficult to explain, but the best way I've figured is to put it like this: generally speaking, you have five players driving offense and six player driving defense due to goaltending.

2) The better team you are, the higher scoring you want games to be, ceteris paribus.
The lower scoring game you play, the more luck controls the outcome of the game.
I think you are somewhat correct but oversimplifying the matter. Every coach in the NHL believes that defense wins championships.

Talent can produce goals, but execution, and attention to detail can reduce them. Pittsburgh with Jacques Martin as an assistant, Quenneville, Sutter all followed this logic. The Jacques Lemaire logic that changed the game, and has been adapted to a faster game. I think we are a work in progress in this respect.

I am watching Nashville dominate Chicago, and 2 things stand out to me, as this is the division we are competing in. Nashville has a terrific top 4 defense, and they have a very unique feature, all 4 are great skaters. Skating is the key to sustained possession, which following your logic is the defensive catalyst, with their defense always pinching down the boards, supporting rushes.

Their goaltending is the other key. Rinne has few weaknesses.

What I see in our defense is two great skaters, and the rest. Buff has that Weber size, with a unique offensive flair, but he can easily caught out of position, because of his skating.

Enstrom to me is the achilles though. He is not a good skater, and often backs off the line to protect himself defensively. Gives up the blueline relatively easily. This season he played well with Myers, hindered Trouba, and was very inadequate with Buff.

Myers is no great skater, but he is an effective penalty killer, which Toby is not, being one of the worst values for a defenseman. Yes he is better than Stuart, Chiarot and company, but that is not addressing the problem. And physical defensive defenseman have for whatever reason faired better with Buff than Toby.
That is the eye test confirmed with the fundamental statistic, the W.

I think our management must address this.

Good skating defenses are having success this year, while poorer ones are not, would you not say?

Goaltending is a real problem, Hellebuyck and Hutch have both been exposed for scouted weaknesses. A new goalie coach, hello Bob Essensa, would go a long way, but a goalie who has experience and confidence is a necessity. If we could get Raanta, Howard or Halak I would be alot more confident going forward.

I keep reading suggestions that Lowry is hindering us, but really folks do you remember how out of place Nik Petan looked playing as the 2 pivot with Little out on our 5 game road trip which sunk us? Look back at the stat lines of the Anaheim playoff series, without going into the narrative of Kesler dominating Scheif, and Getzlaf Little, and tell me he is out of place. I think our top 9 looks good, especially if Connor usurps Matthias, with Copp as a very valuable utility forward. The other pieces are easy to move around, but it starts in net, and on defense, no way around it.

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04-15-2017, 09:18 PM
  #95
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I think you are somewhat correct but oversimplifying the matter. Every coach in the NHL believes that defense wins championships.

Talent can produce goals, but execution, and attention to detail can reduce them. Pittsburgh with Jacques Martin as an assistant, Quenneville, Sutter all followed this logic. The Jacques Lemaire logic that changed the game, and has been adapted to a faster game. I think we are a work in progress in this respect.

I am watching Nashville dominate Chicago, and 2 things stand out to me, as this is the division we are competing in. Nashville has a terrific top 4 defense, and they have a very unique feature, all 4 are great skaters. Skating is the key to sustained possession, which following your logic is the defensive catalyst, with their defense always pinching down the boards, supporting rushes.

Their goaltending is the other key. Rinne has few weaknesses.

What I see in our defense is two great skaters, and the rest. Buff has that Weber size, with a unique offensive flair, but he can easily caught out of position, because of his skating.

Enstrom to me is the achilles though. He is not a good skater, and often backs off the line to protect himself defensively. Gives up the blueline relatively easily. This season he played well with Myers, hindered Trouba, and was very inadequate with Buff.

Myers is no great skater, but he is an effective penalty killer, which Toby is not, being one of the worst values for a defenseman. Yes he is better than Stuart, Chiarot and company, but that is not addressing the problem. And physical defensive defenseman have for whatever reason faired better with Buff than Toby.
That is the eye test confirmed with the fundamental statistic, the W.

I think our management must address this.

Good skating defenses are having success this year, while poorer ones are not, would you not say?

Goaltending is a real problem, Hellebuyck and Hutch have both been exposed for scouted weaknesses. A new goalie coach, hello Bob Essensa, would go a long way, but a goalie who has experience and confidence is a necessity. If we could get Raanta, Howard or Halak I would be alot more confident going forward.

I keep reading suggestions that Lowry is hindering us, but really folks do you remember how out of place Nik Petan looked playing as the 2 pivot with Little out on our 5 game road trip which sunk us? Look back at the stat lines of the Anaheim playoff series, without going into the narrative of Kesler dominating Scheif, and Getzlaf Little, and tell me he is out of place. I think our top 9 looks good, especially if Connor usurps Matthias, with Copp as a very valuable utility forward. The other pieces are easy to move around, but it starts in net, and on defense, no way around it.
I'm pretty sure Petan and Wheeler had excellent metrics during that period.

Enstrom's skating is not a liability in any way whatsoever. To suggest otherwise is totally laughable. No offence.

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04-15-2017, 09:22 PM
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Enstrom had the Jets second best defensive impact. He struggled because of offense.

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04-15-2017, 09:54 PM
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I've seen a large number of posts suggesting we start the season with this as our D.

Morrisey - Trouba
FA ??? - Buff
Enstrom - Myers

I question the realistic logic of this.
What Free agent that is Top 4 caliber (playing ahead of Myers and Enstrom) are we going to be able to afford?

Unless we have some miracle JoMo on an ELC the math doesn't add up

CAP HITS
Morrisey (1.363 mil) - Trouba (3 million and about to get a huge raise)
FA ($$$ ???) - Buff (7.6 million)
Enstrom (5.75 million) - Myers (5.5 million)

With Stu clogging up 2.65 million, Add in Poolmans contract there just isn't room to add a real contract to this section of our payroll.

I realize that Toby and Stu are on the way out but I just can't see us bringing in a D with a significant salary this coming season unless one of the top 5 current D is moved this summer. JoMo will require a nice pay raise for 2018 as well.

What team in the NHL would have over 10 million starting on their 3rd pair. It's really unrealistic to think we are going to be adding a significant player to this group.

I think we should change the make up of our D to improve I just don't know how we can this season with the contracts we already have in place.

Off topic but Roslovic will have an uphill climb contract status wise to start with the Jets... But injuries will be plentiful and we'll see him at some point.

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04-15-2017, 10:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Zhamnov5GoalGame View Post
I've seen a large number of posts suggesting we start the season with this as our D.

Morrisey - Trouba
FA ??? - Buff
Enstrom - Myers

I question the realistic logic of this.
What Free agent that is Top 4 caliber (playing ahead of Myers and Enstrom) are we going to be able to afford?

Unless we have some miracle JoMo on an ELC the math doesn't add up

CAP HITS
Morrisey (1.363 mil) - Trouba (3 million and about to get a huge raise)
FA ($$$ ???) - Buff (7.6 million)
Enstrom (5.75 million) - Myers (5.5 million)

With Stu clogging up 2.65 million, Add in Poolmans contract there just isn't room to add a real contract to this section of our payroll.

I realize that Toby and Stu are on the way out but I just can't see us bringing in a D with a significant salary this coming season unless one of the top 5 current D is moved this summer. JoMo will require a nice pay raise for 2018 as well.

What team in the NHL would have over 10 million starting on their 3rd pair. It's really unrealistic to think we are going to be adding a significant player to this group.

I think we should change the make up of our D to improve I just don't know how we can this season with the contracts we already have in place.

Off topic but Roslovic will have an uphill climb contract status wise to start with the Jets... But injuries will be plentiful and we'll see him at some point.
I agree on the not bringing a defensman into the fold because of salary. IMO it's the same reason why we didn't get a goalie this season ( pav contract )

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04-15-2017, 10:00 PM
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I'm pretty sure Petan and Wheeler had excellent metrics during that period.

Enstrom's skating is not a liability in any way whatsoever. To suggest otherwise is totally laughable. No offence.
Metrics mean ****, when the end result was losing 5 in a row on the road. That was our season. Petan got an audition and failed to impress. Lowry was steady all year, if you can't see that that is sad, not laughable.

Enstrom is a liability. Worst +/- of all our defense. Garret please post PK stats to confirm that he did not adequately replace Stu on the PK, the crusade of last season. And yes his skating is regressing, which is why he seldom joins the rush, and gives up space on both bluelines .

He also lacks the physicality to seal off the boards or box out.


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04-15-2017, 10:04 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Zhamnov5GoalGame View Post
I've seen a large number of posts suggesting we start the season with this as our D.

Morrisey - Trouba
FA ??? - Buff
Enstrom - Myers

I question the realistic logic of this.
What Free agent that is Top 4 caliber (playing ahead of Myers and Enstrom) are we going to be able to afford?

Unless we have some miracle JoMo on an ELC the math doesn't add up

CAP HITS
Morrisey (1.363 mil) - Trouba (3 million and about to get a huge raise)
FA ($$$ ???) - Buff (7.6 million)
Enstrom (5.75 million) - Myers (5.5 million)

With Stu clogging up 2.65 million, Add in Poolmans contract there just isn't room to add a real contract to this section of our payroll.

I realize that Toby and Stu are on the way out but I just can't see us bringing in a D with a significant salary this coming season unless one of the top 5 current D is moved this summer. JoMo will require a nice pay raise for 2018 as well.

What team in the NHL would have over 10 million starting on their 3rd pair. It's really unrealistic to think we are going to be adding a significant player to this group.

I think we should change the make up of our D to improve I just don't know how we can this season with the contracts we already have in place.

Off topic but Roslovic will have an uphill climb contract status wise to start with the Jets... But injuries will be plentiful and we'll see him at some point.
Well...

1) Short term, since Enstrom is off the books tomorrow
2) Jets are very cheap relatively speaking up front to make up
3) Raises don't matter for reason #1
4) Salary is more important to Jets than CapHit, since they are not a cap team anyways (overall this drops by about 2 mil)
5) Jets got a lot of room to burn in terms of cap hit

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