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Jets Starting Lineup 2017-18

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Old
04-15-2017, 10:14 PM
  #101
Zhamnov5GoalGame
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Well...

1) Short term, since Enstrom is off the books tomorrow
2) Jets are very cheap relatively speaking up front to make up
3) Raises don't matter for reason #1
4) Salary is more important to Jets than CapHit, since they are not a cap team anyways (overall this drops by about 2 mil)
5) Jets got a lot of room to burn in terms of cap hit
All good points and I was very aware of the cash vs cap hit status.
My point stands.
Do you see the Jets bringing in a 3.5 - 4 million dollar D?

Lots of our fellow HF Jets say things like "let's sign Alzner"

Hard to see that happening.

I think they will look for an opportunity to bring in a cheap vet who can play on the Moose and maybe be an improvement when we go fishing for call ups. Someone to boost the 7 - 8 - 9 spot.

If Chevy can do better I will be surprised.

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Old
04-15-2017, 10:28 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Zhamnov5GoalGame View Post
All good points and I was very aware of the cash vs cap hit status.
My point stands.
Do you see the Jets bringing in a 3.5 - 4 million dollar D?

Lots of our fellow HF Jets say things like "let's sign Alzner"

Hard to see that happening.

I think they will look for an opportunity to bring in a cheap vet who can play on the Moose and maybe be an improvement when we go fishing for call ups. Someone to boost the 7 - 8 - 9 spot.

If Chevy can do better I will be surprised.
Depends.

I'd say no because Alzner is overrated, not that great, and won't provide that value.
He's literally trending as a worse Enstrom and you are just giving him a similar contract, but worse because he'll be older by the end of it.

If you find someone undervalued, which happens all the time, like a Barberio or LHD Postma on the low end or a Smith on the high end, then sure.


Paying $5 is not bad if you get a $5-6 product.
Paying #5 sucks when you get a $3 product.


EDIT:

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Old
04-15-2017, 10:32 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Depends.

I'd say no because Alzner is overrated, not that great, and won't provide that value.
He's literally trending as a worse Enstrom and you are just giving him a similar contract, but worse because he'll be older by the end of it.

If you find someone undervalued, which happens all the time, like a Barberio or LHD Postma on the low end or a Smith on the high end, then sure.


Paying $5 is not bad if you get a $5-6 product.
Paying #5 sucks when you get a $3 product.


EDIT:
Agreed. I think we need to be looking for a complementary partner for Buff. I don't know who that might be but I'd like someone to come in and compete with Toby for the role next season.

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04-15-2017, 10:40 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Agreed. I think we need to be looking for a complementary partner for Buff. I don't know who that might be but I'd like someone to come in and compete with Toby for the role next season.
I don't see how that could ever happen. We spend top 3 on d in the league and we are in the bottom 3 defensively.

There is no way in hell Chevy goes out and adds another 3 Mil plus for a top 4 to complement Buff. Not how the jets roll.

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04-15-2017, 11:08 PM
  #105
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I don't see how that could ever happen. We spend top 3 on d in the league and we are in the bottom 3 defensively.

There is no way in hell Chevy goes out and adds another 3 Mil plus for a top 4 to complement Buff. Not how the jets roll.
You do realize that $8 million in defense contracts cone off the books in a year right? Why do you think he wouldn't spend on one this summer knowing that they could easily absorb the cost for a year since we won't be spending any additional cash on forwards.

I'm sure the org is well aware that Toby is declining and will need to be replaced in a year or two and that we don't have a replacement bear ready in house. They will have to make a move to address his replacement at some point. The smart move is getting his replacement now while he is still here and having an open competetion for the role.

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04-15-2017, 11:18 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
You do realize that $8 million in defense contracts cone off the books in a year right? Why do you think he wouldn't spend on one this summer knowing that they could easily absorb the cost for a year since we won't be spending any additional cash on forwards.

I'm sure the org is well aware that Toby is declining and will need to be replaced in a year or two and that we don't have a replacement bear ready in house. They will have to make a move to address his replacement at some point. The smart move is getting his replacement now while he is still here and having an open competetion for the role.
That 8 mil is going to morriesey and Trouba plus a few mil. We will have around the same price spent on D give or take. Minus Toby and stu.

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04-15-2017, 11:20 PM
  #107
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Jets have enstrom and stuart at about 9 mill and they're going to go out and get another ld. Not happening.

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Old
04-15-2017, 11:26 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by ffh View Post
Jets have enstrom and stuart at about 9 mill and they're going to go out and get another ld. Not happening.
I agree and we have an example of how Chevy would play a situation where he has a lot of money spent and getting undervalued results ( PAV) ........ we didn't do anything.

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04-16-2017, 12:02 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Depends.

I'd say no because Alzner is overrated, not that great, and won't provide that value.
He's literally trending as a worse Enstrom and you are just giving him a similar contract, but worse because he'll be older by the end of it.

If you find someone undervalued, which happens all the time, like a Barberio or LHD Postma on the low end or a Smith on the high end, then sure.


Paying $5 is not bad if you get a $5-6 product.
Paying #5 sucks when you get a $3 product.


EDIT:
Unfortunately there is no LHD Postma UFA, so that would have to be a trade.

I've been advocating going after Smith for a few weeks now.

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Old
04-16-2017, 02:02 PM
  #110
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Metrics mean ****, when the end result was losing 5 in a row on the road. That was our season. Petan got an audition and failed to impress. Lowry was steady all year, if you can't see that that is sad, not laughable.

Enstrom is a liability. Worst +/- of all our defense. Garret please post PK stats to confirm that he did not adequately replace Stu on the PK, the crusade of last season. And yes his skating is regressing, which is why he seldom joins the rush, and gives up space on both bluelines .

He also lacks the physicality to seal off the boards or box out.
Petan performed well during that period. The numbers back that up. Using wins and losses to evaluate individual players is about as ridiculous as it gets.

Enstrom is still one of the very best skaters on the team if he has become a liability in that department then this team is in huge trouble because the list of guys better than him in that department is 3-4 max.

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04-16-2017, 02:56 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by veganhunter View Post
Petan performed well during that period. The numbers back that up. Using wins and losses to evaluate individual players is about as ridiculous as it gets.

Enstrom is still one of the very best skaters on the team if he has become a liability in that department then this team is in huge trouble because the list of guys better than him in that department is 3-4 max.
I do enjoy "metrics mean ****" to be followed by him reinforcing his opinion with flawed metrics like team performance, +/-, etc.


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Old
04-16-2017, 02:59 PM
  #112
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OEL had the worst +/- for defenders on his team. What a liability!

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Old
04-16-2017, 05:21 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I do enjoy "metrics mean ****" to be followed by him reinforcing his opinion with flawed metrics like team performance, +/-, etc.

Many fields are moving more towards analysis of complex systems, using dynamic mathematical modeling instead of static models to better reflect what happens in complex systems. Where is the field of hockey analytics in dynamic modeling?

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04-16-2017, 05:28 PM
  #114
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Many fields are moving more towards analysis of complex systems, using dynamic mathematical modeling instead of static models to better reflect what happens in complex systems. Where is the field of hockey analytics in dynamic modeling?
There is some in public sphere but not much...
Example:
XPM is dynamic
BPM is static

Rest of it is outside of what I'm privy to say.

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04-16-2017, 05:38 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
There is some in public sphere but not much...
Example:
XPM is dynamic
BPM is static

Rest of it is outside of what I'm privy to say.
I thought XPM is a regression model, not a dynamic model (either individual or compartmental).

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04-16-2017, 05:46 PM
  #116
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I guess Laine is over rated too if you go by advanced analytics too.

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04-16-2017, 05:49 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
I thought XPM is a regression model, not a dynamic model (either individual or compartmental).
XPM uses both.

XPM uses regression for adjusting usage, and a ridge regression due to the collinearity.
XPM uses DTM's expected goals, where the rate of events and timeline of things occurring before or after events matters as well.


As a slightly off topic aside, another model you might be interested in:
http://corsica.hockey/misc/K_Manuscript.pdf


Last edited by garret9: 04-16-2017 at 05:59 PM.
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Old
04-16-2017, 05:58 PM
  #118
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I guess Laine is over rated too if you go by advanced analytics too.
How so?

2nd best EV offensive rating for rookies after Matthews
3rd best EV defensive rating for rookies after Rantanen and Aho
Best even strength rating for rookies
His PP wasn't that high, but we all know how Maurice plays a role in that

That sounds rated about right to me...


Last edited by garret9: 04-16-2017 at 06:01 PM. Reason: forgot to put EV
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Old
04-16-2017, 09:16 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
How so?

2nd best EV offensive rating for rookies after Matthews
3rd best EV defensive rating for rookies after Rantanen and Aho
Best even strength rating for rookies
His PP wasn't that high, but we all know how Maurice plays a role in that

That sounds rated about right to me...
My eyetest tells me he isn't that good defensively...

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04-16-2017, 09:22 PM
  #120
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My eyetest tells me he isn't that good defensively...
Defensively != defensive impact.
They are related but not the same.

Also, he's just relatively better. Most rookies are bad there. Rantanen is the only one I'd say NHL wise is actually "good" in defensive impact.

That said, I wouldn't take any eye test as being the measure of a models proficiency. A model is as good as it is able to explain current performance and/or predict future performance, regardless of the eye test.

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04-16-2017, 09:41 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Defensively != defensive impact.
They are related but not the same.

Also, he's just relatively better. Most rookies are bad there. Rantanen is the only one I'd say NHL wise is actually "good" in defensive impact.

That said, I wouldn't take any eye test as being the measure of a models proficiency. A model is as good as it is able to explain current performance and/or predict future performance, regardless of the eye test.
You keep saying this, but I can't imagine many people who say 'defensively' mean anything other than defensive impact

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04-16-2017, 09:48 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by csk View Post
You keep saying this, but I can't imagine many people who say 'defensively' mean anything other than defensive impact
Defensively is how a player plays in the defensive zone:
* gap control
* puck recoveries
* box out
* block shots
* defensive zone positioning

Defensive impact:
* the absence of expected goals against

There are things that player does that can effect defensive impact that isn't what people would see when they view how someone plays defensively.

Decision making and actions that a fan/scout/analyst/coach/gm sees that would impact how a player is viewed defensively is generally with the team already with control of the puck in the offensive zone and you are trying to minimize that damage. This impacts expected goals against, but is not the totality of it, since the opposing player had a chance to generate a shot here regardless.

There are things that players can do that can make a player not need to defend well.

Impact combines both of these.

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04-16-2017, 09:54 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Defensively is how a player plays in the defensive zone:
* gap control
* puck recoveries
* box out
* block shots
* defensive zone positioning

Defensive impact:
* the absence of expected goals against

There are things that player does that can effect defensive impact that isn't what people would see when they view how someone plays defensively.

Decision making and actions that a fan/scout/analyst/coach/gm sees that would impact how a player is viewed defensively is generally with the team already with control of the puck in the offensive zone and you are trying to minimize that damage. This impacts expected goals against, but is not the totality of it, since the opposing player had a chance to generate a shot here regardless.

There are things that players can do that can make a player not need to defend well.

Impact combines both of these.
None of this addresses my post. To clarify: many people, myself included, use the word defensively to refer to the entirety of defensive impact. You are not the arbiter of word usage.

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04-16-2017, 10:02 PM
  #124
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None of this addresses my post. To clarify: many people, myself included, use the word defensively to refer to the entirety of defensive impact. You are not the arbiter of word usage.
Well in my experience that has not at all been the case nor the industry standard going on...

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04-16-2017, 10:16 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by csk View Post
None of this addresses my post. To clarify: many people, myself included, use the word defensively to refer to the entirety of defensive impact. You are not the arbiter of word usage.
So when you talk about a player's play, defensively are you referring to how he plays when his team has posession in the O zone? I don't think that is how most people would understand that but it is a part of total 'defensive impact'.

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