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Seattle Arena discussion, vol. XII

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Old
07-11-2017, 01:37 AM
  #576
nwhockeyfan
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Nope. I dont think thats crazy because you know what?.... I have ZERO confidence in Hansen & his partners, nor does the NHL, anyone with their ear to the ground.
I think the NBA has very little confidence in Hansen as well and OVG knows it. It is interesting and I am also fed up with it at the same time. It will probably never really end up with the NHL here in all honesty. Just not that great an appetite for the NHL here imo.

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07-11-2017, 06:23 AM
  #577
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I don't believe what I am about to post is reasonable or logical but this whole process just keeps getting more and more bizarre.

Something that keeps running through the back of my mind is the possibility of a renovated Key with OVG that will be a NHL only facility that is just as much a concert venue. This would leave Sodo as an NBA facility to be built only if Hansen can land a franchise (giving the city a way to accept both options). OVG seems to be a NHL strong group. It seems the focus of local officials is to make Key viable in some way or another. Totally far fetched and I don't believe a two arena set up is logical but we are talking about Seattle.

I know this is a ridiculous option but it keeps running around in my head as a possibility. Take shots as you should and get this idea out of my head, please!!
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Nope. I dont think thats crazy because you know what?.... I have ZERO confidence in Hansen & his partners, nor does the NHL, anyone with their ear to the ground.
You know, you two, but I am also in Killion's camp on this one. But it's not about Hansen. My view of this is that it's not far-fetched to look at a possible two-arena solution and I've mentioned here before why it's possible the Council might just go this route - it provides them political cover.

About a month ago, I posted this in response to a post from PCSPounder: (Post 536 in this thread for reference)

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That might become a political escape chute for this council. As they will not be able to vote on the Key before December, and that is if there's an actual agreement reached with OVG, the expectation is that they'll be voting on street vacation sometime in the fall before that Key vote. It might be in the council's best interests to vote yes on street vacation as a sort of insurance policy against the OVG deal falling apart, which could happen if things such as traffic issues and public cost do not get resolved.

Again, as I noted before, PCS, the view on the ground here is that there appears to be a possible devil in the details here, especially as it pertains to public cost. What if people start to analyze this deal and realize hey, there's going to be a public taxpayer cost and the public has been led to believe all through this that there wouldn't be and you have SoDo which Hansen has vowed now would be all-private. Council's going to have to be careful here lest this does become a campaign issue.
So there you have it. And now you have this UW study mentioned in the Daniels story from last night that claims city revenues from a SoDo arena would be three times greater than one at the Key and that also plays into this as well.

Councilmembers, especially the ones running for re-election, may need to go down this route to calm down the folks who get upset they'll be paying for an arena reno when there's a "far better" option on the table in SoDo that, at least in the eyes of the UW study, has better benefits for the city than a Key reno. Primaries are in three weeks but this will be an issue potentially in the general in November. And considering that McGinn has become more aggressive about this issue in the past couple of days, he may be primed to turn this into an issue which if he does will be good news for SoDo supporters. I encourage everyone to spend some time today going through Levine's Twitter thread and reading the information that he posted that was submitted to him by the various mayoral candidates.

Killion, I get your view on Hansen and I'm sure that is shared by many of our posters from outside of Seattle, and considering the lack of actual action on their part, one certainly can have that assessment of them. But I'm not sure that at the end of the day that his ability to get a team really matters in the end. The council, if they're smart, will go this route, the Port be damned, and then we'll really see for sure if he can close the deal. It is my view that those in support of Hansen/SoDo really need to aggressively pitch this option to the council. Councilman Johnson is the one who actually brought this up a couple months back IIRC and now it's time for folks to start campaigning for this option.

This is all about what provides the council cover for what will likely be tremendous criticism from various quarters whatever they decide to do. They're kind of in a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" position here.


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07-11-2017, 07:42 AM
  #578
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Originally Posted by snovalleyhockeyfan View Post
You know, you two, but I am also in Killion's camp on this one. But it's not about Hansen. My view of this is that it's not far-fetched to look at a possible two-arena solution and I've mentioned here before why it's possible the Council might just go this route - it provides them political cover.

About a month ago, I posted this in response to a post from PCSPounder: (Post 536 in this thread for reference)



So there you have it. And now you have this UW study mentioned in the Daniels story from last night that claims city revenues from a SoDo arena would be three times greater than one at the Key and that also plays into this as well.

Councilmembers, especially the ones running for re-election, may need to go down this route to calm down the folks who get upset they'll be paying for an arena reno when there's a "far better" option on the table in SoDo that, at least in the eyes of the UW study, has better benefits for the city than a Key reno. Primaries are in three weeks but this will be an issue potentially in the general in November. And considering that McGinn has become more aggressive about this issue in the past couple of days, he may be primed to turn this into an issue which if he does will be good news for SoDo supporters. I encourage everyone to spend some time today going through Levine's Twitter thread and reading the information that he posted that was submitted to him by the various mayoral candidates.

Killion, I get your view on Hansen and I'm sure that is shared by many of our posters from outside of Seattle, and considering the lack of actual action on their part, one certainly can have that assessment of them. But I'm not sure that at the end of the day that his ability to get a team really matters in the end. The council, if they're smart, will go this route, the Port be damned, and then we'll really see for sure if he can close the deal. It is my view that those in support of Hansen/SoDo really need to aggressively pitch this option to the council. Councilman Johnson is the one who actually brought this up a couple months back IIRC and now it's time for folks to start campaigning for this option.

This is all about what provides the council cover for what will likely be tremendous criticism from various quarters whatever they decide to do. They're kind of in a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" position here.
Good post. I remember now your post from back aways and is probably why it has been running around in the back of my mind. I agree the SCC is in a very interesting position.

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07-11-2017, 09:32 AM
  #579
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Good post. I remember now your post from back aways and is probably why it has been running around in the back of my mind. I agree the SCC is in a very interesting position.
They are, and it's all about the election. Again, as I've stated twice already, so apologies for sounding like a broken record, but Aaron Levine's Twitter feed from the last several days is a must-read. He has been really working this aspect of this discussion hard because he understands that this election will have an impact on the future direction of this issue.

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07-11-2017, 11:39 AM
  #580
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Killion, I get your view on Hansen and I'm sure that is shared by many of our posters from outside of Seattle, and considering the lack of actual action on their part, one certainly can have that assessment of them. But I'm not sure that at the end of the day that his ability to get a team really matters in the end. The council, if they're smart, will go this route, the Port be damned, and then we'll really see for sure if he can close the deal. It is my view that those in support of Hansen/SoDo really need to aggressively pitch this option to the council. Councilman Johnson is the one who actually brought this up a couple months back IIRC and now it's time for folks to start campaigning for this option.

This is all about what provides the council cover for what will likely be tremendous criticism from various quarters whatever they decide to do. They're kind of in a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" position here.
Pretty much, yes, and I completely agree with the rest of your comments on the political ramifications. First of all, it remains to be seen if the strength & reputations of Hansens partners can overcome the pall he himself cast with his Machiavellian activities down in Sacramento within the corridors of power at the NBA. Secondly, I'm not seeing a situation based on his perambulations to date that bodes well for an in-bound NHL franchise in "sharing" this facility with his group and an NBA franchise should he somehow be able to acquire one....

.... which Frankly strikes me as a Moon Shot & has since Steve Ballmer departed for LA. If under single ownership, NBA/NHL then sure, it'd be tight in Seattle but it could work. The business models of both leagues are such that the franchise's ownership group must be in a position of facility management to some extent if not fully in control, able to capture all revenue streams or as much of it as possible. Hansen & his group will be deep in debt with the costs of land, construction, and God only knows what an NBA franchise is gonna cost. They arent going to be in a position to hand an NHL teams ownership group a sweetheart deal, so before even the pucks dropped, in a new market (albeit one with a long & rich history of hockey, natural rivals to the north & south) Im not seeing those numbers pencilling out.

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07-11-2017, 12:35 PM
  #581
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Pretty much, yes, and I completely agree with the rest of your comments on the political ramifications. First of all, it remains to be seen if the strength & reputations of Hansens partners can overcome the pall he himself cast with his Machiavellian activities down in Sacramento within the corridors of power at the NBA. Secondly, I'm not seeing a situation based on his perambulations to date that bodes well for an in-bound NHL franchise in "sharing" this facility with his group and an NBA franchise should he somehow be able to acquire one....

.... which Frankly strikes me as a Moon Shot & has since Steve Ballmer departed for LA. If under single ownership, NBA/NHL then sure, it'd be tight in Seattle but it could work. The business models of both leagues are such that the franchise's ownership group must be in a position of facility management to some extent if not fully in control, able to capture all revenue streams or as much of it as possible. Hansen & his group will be deep in debt with the costs of land, construction, and God only knows what an NBA franchise is gonna cost. They arent going to be in a position to hand an NHL teams ownership group a sweetheart deal, so before even the pucks dropped, in a new market (albeit one with a long & rich history of hockey, natural rivals to the north & south) Im not seeing those numbers pencilling out.
And I don't think a lot of people are either. And this is the problem. The NHL wants to be here but yet there's no hard data to suggest whether this will be a slam-dunk market or not. Sure, it could work, but the league needs to do some test runs down here in the form of preseason exhibition games and perhaps one or two regular season neutral-siters before they jump in head first.

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07-11-2017, 12:39 PM
  #582
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Originally Posted by snovalleyhockeyfan View Post
And I don't think a lot of people are either. And this is the problem. The NHL wants to be here but yet there's no hard data to suggest whether this will be a slam-dunk market or not. Sure, it could work, but the league needs to do some test runs down here in the form of preseason exhibition games and perhaps one or two regular season neutral-siters before they jump in head first.
I'm sure the Arizona Coyotes will oblige...

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07-11-2017, 12:48 PM
  #583
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I'm sure the Arizona Coyotes will oblige...
Sure. If Barroway wants to kick the tires here, someone should tell him to call the city of Kent (ShoWare) or the city of Everett (Xfinity Arena) and book dates!!

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07-11-2017, 01:14 PM
  #584
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And I don't think a lot of people are either. And this is the problem. The NHL wants to be here but yet there's no hard data to suggest whether this will be a slam-dunk market or not. Sure, it could work, but the league needs to do some test runs down here in the form of preseason exhibition games and perhaps one or two regular season neutral-siters before they jump in head first.
Well, sv, I dont know that thats going to be terribly telling one way or the other. Staging pre-season "Neutral Site" games hardly indicative of support for the game/league long-term. Nor does support (or lack thereof) of a minor-pro or junior club mean a whole bunch. All kinds of additional factors that come into play and these pre-season games, handicapped. For starters... "not my cities team, why should I care, bother"?.... Then theres the Rosters iced for pre-season. Makeup of the team could be 50% or more AHL'rs, Juniors.... And what if its an NHL team from the general geographic region with whom your city has pre-existing rivalries in another sport, perhaps socio-economic rivals as well (as is the case with Montreal & QC, Toronto & Hamilton etc) and you'd rather eat glass than cheer on the Habs or Leafs let alone support their AHL club's who might call that non-NHL city home. Its just not on. Too small a sample. You either have 110% confidence in your product & dive into the deep end based on other metrics (and Seattle passes, actually surpasses almost all of them) or you dont, and if you dont then dont bother because what'll happen is whats happened in Arizona, Atlanta & elsewhere. The NHL & ownership blaming the market for their own failures.

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07-11-2017, 01:24 PM
  #585
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And I don't think a lot of people are either. And this is the problem. The NHL wants to be here but yet there's no hard data to suggest whether this will be a slam-dunk market or not. Sure, it could work, but the league needs to do some test runs down here in the form of preseason exhibition games and perhaps one or two regular season neutral-siters before they jump in head first.
There's hard data out there, and it's not easy to get to.

When the whole Vegas thing was going on, I found some information from the Luker poll that shared information on a lot of the potential expansion cities. Seattle isn't in a bad position for an expansion based on the information in that study, but it's definitely not the "slam dunk" most people expect it to be.

That being said, I don't know that the pre-season thing really helps judge anything. Like Killion said, there's a lot of variables involved in pre-season games involving out of town teams. The fact that the NHL had preseason games in Las Vegas for 20 years prior to the Knights arriving may have helped Las Vegas get a team, but I don't think many other cities would need to jump through the hoops Las Vegas did.

If there's a team coming to Seattle, I don't think it would be a failure by any stretch, but I think there's definitely some hurdles they'll need to cross to make it a stable franchise that can get into the top 2/3rd of team revenues.

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07-11-2017, 01:26 PM
  #586
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.... which Frankly strikes me as a Moon Shot & has since Steve Ballmer departed for LA. If under single ownership, NBA/NHL then sure, it'd be tight in Seattle but it could work. The business models of both leagues are such that the franchise's ownership group must be in a position of facility management to some extent if not fully in control, able to capture all revenue streams or as much of it as possible. Hansen & his group will be deep in debt with the costs of land, construction, and God only knows what an NBA franchise is gonna cost. They arent going to be in a position to hand an NHL teams ownership group a sweetheart deal, so before even the pucks dropped, in a new market (albeit one with a long & rich history of hockey, natural rivals to the north & south) Im not seeing those numbers pencilling out.
I think the idea is that an NHL partner would be a 50% owner in the arena and put up half the funding. Hansen and buddies would own the other half of the arena and bide time until the NBA is ready to expand.

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07-11-2017, 01:42 PM
  #587
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That being said, I don't know that the pre-season thing really helps judge anything. Like Killion said, there's a lot of variables involved in pre-season games involving out of town teams. The fact that the NHL had preseason games in Las Vegas for 20 years prior to the Knights arriving may have helped Las Vegas get a team, but I don't think many other cities would need to jump through the hoops Las Vegas did.
Yeah, Vegas however really pretty unique, not exactly your cookie-cutter type market in terms of metrics. Outside of the usual standard sized box. Been on the NHL's radar for over 20yrs, Outdoor Game back in when was it, 94?.... You had Gary Bettmans Stepbrother working closely with the Powerbrokers in the City as Commissioner of the World Series Poker Championships, the relocation of the annual NHL Awards Show from Toronto to LV.... Jerry Bruckheimer at the height of the CSI: Las Vegas (Miami, NY etc) franchise's peak seriously looking to establish an NHL footprint in Vegas (and a partner the League wouldve loved to have brought into the fold) & so on.... Serious money in LV for years looking to acquire a team & membership in one of the Big4 as it would (and has) validated Las Vegas as a major city, entirely liveable, that beyond the Strip there is life, huge community, people living quiet lives, raising families, a place to call home. Normal.... which beyond the glitz & gambling, it is. So really, somewhat different dynamic then a Seattle, Houston, a San Diego or Hamilton, Quebec City.

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07-11-2017, 02:19 PM
  #588
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Sure. If Barroway wants to kick the tires here, someone should tell him to call the city of Kent (ShoWare) or the city of Everett (Xfinity Arena) and book dates!!
Besides.... the Mariners already use Coyotes1 to fly around on during the NHL off season.

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07-11-2017, 02:28 PM
  #589
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I think the idea is that an NHL partner would be a 50% owner in the arena and put up half the funding. Hansen and buddies would own the other half of the arena and bide time until the NBA is ready to expand.
Aqib,

What exactly information from Hansen gives you this idea? I haven't seen anything to support this concept.

What I think I have seen is more of the idea that Hansen wants to be the hero who brings NBA back to Seattle. He has a lot of $$ invested in the land already. I can't imagine Hansen yielding such an arrangement as you describe, but I would be happy to be shown to be wrong...

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07-11-2017, 05:58 PM
  #590
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Aqib,

What exactly information from Hansen gives you this idea? I haven't seen anything to support this concept.

What I think I have seen is more of the idea that Hansen wants to be the hero who brings NBA back to Seattle. He has a lot of $$ invested in the land already. I can't imagine Hansen yielding such an arrangement as you describe, but I would be happy to be shown to be wrong...
I heard him say it on a podcast. I believe it was Sonics Rising.

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07-12-2017, 08:38 AM
  #591
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07-13-2017, 03:06 PM
  #592
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Pretty much, yes, and I completely agree with the rest of your comments on the political ramifications. First of all, it remains to be seen if the strength & reputations of Hansens partners can overcome the pall he himself cast with his Machiavellian activities down in Sacramento within the corridors of power at the NBA. Secondly, I'm not seeing a situation based on his perambulations to date that bodes well for an in-bound NHL franchise in "sharing" this facility with his group and an NBA franchise should he somehow be able to acquire one....

.... which Frankly strikes me as a Moon Shot & has since Steve Ballmer departed for LA. If under single ownership, NBA/NHL then sure, it'd be tight in Seattle but it could work. The business models of both leagues are such that the franchise's ownership group must be in a position of facility management to some extent if not fully in control, able to capture all revenue streams or as much of it as possible. Hansen & his group will be deep in debt with the costs of land, construction, and God only knows what an NBA franchise is gonna cost. They arent going to be in a position to hand an NHL teams ownership group a sweetheart deal, so before even the pucks dropped, in a new market (albeit one with a long & rich history of hockey, natural rivals to the north & south) Im not seeing those numbers pencilling out.
Machiavelli would have placed 2-3 degrees of separation between himself and local opposition to the Sacramento arena. That's part of the reason Hansen needs to be side-eyed at about every opportunity.

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07-13-2017, 03:22 PM
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Machiavelli would have placed 2-3 degrees of separation between himself and local opposition to the Sacramento arena. That's part of the reason Hansen needs to be side-eyed at about every opportunity.
... this is true PCS. Too flattering in my choice of words, analogy.

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07-16-2017, 10:43 AM
  #594
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Primary elections

FYI for our out of town folks but here in Seattle the ballots have just gone out for the August primary. I myself have received one and have just voted and will be sending it in the mail for tomorrow.

In addition to the Seattle races we have been discussing here (mayor), residents all across King County in a rare instance actually now can have a dog in this arena fight. Also up for election are seats on the Port of Seattle Commission, and there's three of those on the ballot. To respect the rules of the forum, I won't go into too much detail here except to say there's two of the races that have strong pro-SoDo candidates running, and if those candidates win slots into the general election this fall, the arena could become an issue in those races and that will give suburban sports fans, of which I am one, a voice in this process, albeit a very small one, for a change.

Aaron Levine's Twitter feed (@AaronQ13Fox), which I have of course mentioned had all the mayor's race stuff earlier this week, well, he sent the same questionnaires out to the Port Commission candidates and their responses are on there as well for those who are interested.

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07-16-2017, 09:48 PM
  #595
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Art Thiel had a blog post on the 10th that mentioned the tax issue by UW's Evans School.

http://sportspressnw.com/2233996/201...a-upgrade-plan

Quote:
On another front, the University of Washington’s Evans School of Public Policy and Governance released a study Monday that compared the two projects regarding their generation of tax revenues. It concluded that the Sodo project would generate three times the amount of OVG’s to the city’s general fund over the life of the proposed 35-year lease.

The study was funded by Hansen’s group and started work May 19.

Using the same set of assumptions for both proposals, the study said Sodo would generate $103 million and OVG $34 million.

But because the Key is city property, it does not pay property taxes, and Hansen’s private ownership of 12.5 acres of Sodo commercial property is already paying property taxes.
Should be noted that the SCC will likely disregard the the study for two reasons.

1) Hansen commissioned it.
2) The same group has poured cold water over the SCCs $15/hour minimum wage, although the city had commissioned them to study the effects in the first place.

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07-17-2017, 06:17 AM
  #596
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Art Thiel had a blog post on the 10th that mentioned the tax issue by UW's Evans School.

http://sportspressnw.com/2233996/201...a-upgrade-plan



Should be noted that the SCC will likely disregard the the study for two reasons.

1) Hansen commissioned it.
2) The same group has poured cold water over the SCCs $15/hour minimum wage, although the city had commissioned them to study the effects in the first place.
Yes, that's very much possible, but they will be doing so at their own risk politically, especially if the arena becomes a campaign issue during the fall general election season.

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07-17-2017, 01:00 PM
  #597
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More Murray revelations and now calls for him to step aside as mayor


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07-17-2017, 09:40 PM
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The Seattle process is annoying and takes to long. With the Rockets for sale, Seattle might have to wait for the NHL to be ready.

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07-17-2017, 10:18 PM
  #599
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Forget about Seattle. A much larger market with a NHL ready arena will soon be available in Houston.

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07-17-2017, 10:29 PM
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Forget about Seattle. A much larger market with a NHL ready arena will soon be available in Houston.
nope, Houston isn't cleared yet..... Seattle is ahead of Houston logistically.

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