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Is J Toews worth his contract?

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Old
04-18-2017, 12:55 AM
  #76
Regal
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I just want to point out the the Hawks had only won 2 cups when Toews signed, since people keep saying they paid for 3. He signed in July 2014, it just didn't kick in until last season. So on the one hand you can argue that there was even less leverage at the time, and on the other you can argue that re-signing Toews was necessary for winning that 3rd cup. If Toews was an upcoming UFA going into the 2014-15 season, who knows how it would have played out. No doubt it would be looming over his and the team's head, and you wonder how much it might affect his play, and if he would be willing to lay it all on the line and potentially lose millions if he had a serious injury. If it changes '15 it's already worth it.

Also, as pointed out, for owners I'm sure winning is important, but revenue and the brand is huge. Whether the Hawks win another cup or not with Toews' contracts on the books, for the foreseeable future they should still be an entertaining team, with stars the fans love and enough hope of winning to keep packing them in the building and buying merchandise. While the fans still want to win, I'm sure 3 cups in 6 years buys a lot of good will and leeway for coming up short. You don't give up on that for cap space that likely gets you no further to a cup. I think everyone agrees it's too much for what he brings as a player, but there's no doubt he could get it from someone else, and it would not have been worth it to either the team's short term fortunes or the franchise's bottom line to let him go. In that sense you could say he's worth it. Chicago was also unfortunate to re-sign him and Kane before the Canadian dollar tanked. I'm sure Bowman thought the cap would be going up more than it has.


Last edited by Regal: 04-18-2017 at 01:01 AM.
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Old
04-18-2017, 01:21 AM
  #77
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The whole 'you can't pay for past accomplishment' line is a bunch of BS in the practical world.

The CBA is structured to ensure players can not make their value as they enter their peak. Some, with more leverage than God may (McDavid), but most are paid as little as possible while they have little power. Their UFA years hit, usually after the peak of an NHL player, and then they want as much as possible.

If you're a mediocre or bad team and a guy comes up for UFA, then yeah. Let him walk. But if you're a good team with a window still slightly open, the idea that you're going to let a 1C walk when you can't find them in trade (or rarely... thanks a lot CBJs, btw) and short of Tavares leaving Brooklyn there aren't going to be any centers in Toews league allowed to walk away from their teams. They'll all get paid.

So your choice is take a team that still has some window, lose a 1C, which will sufficiently weaken you to the point you can't seriously contend but in the case of a team like the Blackhawks, not enough to actually put you in the lottery to draft another legit 1C.

The Blackhawks contracts to Toews and Kane are going to make life tough for the Blackhawks moving forward. But beyond the fact that I and any Blackhawks fan would have happily taken an offer of 'you get 3 cups in 6 years, but then you can't contend for a long time' in a SECOND in the early 2000s, the limbo they'll find themselves in between real contender and just meh, is essentially the exact same limbo they'd be in if they had let Toews walk and were stuck searching for somebody to take his place. Because you don't win in this league without a legit 1C. The only difference is, you'd have the 10.5 million, and no legitimate impact player available to spend it on, because they only come through the draft.

So you pay. And you try to squeeze every bit you can out of the window. And THEN, you burn it down and try to rebuild. And you look back at 2010, 2013, 2015 to get you through the tougher times when they come.


Oh, and finally, I'm far more comfortable with the value of Toews contract than the value of Seabrook's contract.


Last edited by JaegerDice: 04-18-2017 at 01:27 AM.
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Old
04-18-2017, 02:34 AM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JaegerDice View Post
The whole 'you can't pay for past accomplishment' line is a bunch of BS in the practical world.

The CBA is structured to ensure players can not make their value as they enter their peak. Some, with more leverage than God may (McDavid), but most are paid as little as possible while they have little power. Their UFA years hit, usually after the peak of an NHL player, and then they want as much as possible.

If you're a mediocre or bad team and a guy comes up for UFA, then yeah. Let him walk. But if you're a good team with a window still slightly open, the idea that you're going to let a 1C walk when you can't find them in trade (or rarely... thanks a lot CBJs, btw) and short of Tavares leaving Brooklyn there aren't going to be any centers in Toews league allowed to walk away from their teams. They'll all get paid.

So your choice is take a team that still has some window, lose a 1C, which will sufficiently weaken you to the point you can't seriously contend but in the case of a team like the Blackhawks, not enough to actually put you in the lottery to draft another legit 1C.

The Blackhawks contracts to Toews and Kane are going to make life tough for the Blackhawks moving forward. But beyond the fact that I and any Blackhawks fan would have happily taken an offer of 'you get 3 cups in 6 years, but then you can't contend for a long time' in a SECOND in the early 2000s, the limbo they'll find themselves in between real contender and just meh, is essentially the exact same limbo they'd be in if they had let Toews walk and were stuck searching for somebody to take his place. Because you don't win in this league without a legit 1C. The only difference is, you'd have the 10.5 million, and no legitimate impact player available to spend it on, because they only come through the draft.

So you pay. And you try to squeeze every bit you can out of the window. And THEN, you burn it down and try to rebuild. And you look back at 2010, 2013, 2015 to get you through the tougher times when they come.


Oh, and finally, I'm far more comfortable with the value of Toews contract than the value of Seabrook's contract.
Agree with basically everything here in relation to those who think Toews shouldn't have been re-signed, but I think there's a second school of thought with the past accomplishments angle that has a point, and that's that the dollar figure was paying essentially for the cups and not their quality as players at the time. When they signed, you already had Malkin signed for 9.5, Getzlaf for 8.25, Perry for 8.625, Giroux for 8.275, and Kessel for 8, setting the market for stars under the new CBA in the 8 to 9 million range just the year before. Their play and success probably put them in the high part of that range, but instead they went another million beyond Malkin. Obviously we don't know how the negotiations went down, but it's hard not to think Bowman tried not to rock the boat and gave them what they wanted, and it's odd that they got so much in a deal that was re-signed a year before they even hit the market considering we often hear about other teams offering more than what players end up re-signing for. Even if they both signed for Perry deals (who had a Hart, Rocket and cup himself) an extra almost 4 million in room could have really helped the last two seasons.

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Old
04-18-2017, 02:55 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by TheMule93 View Post
If Chicago said "look, you performance warrants a contract in the 7-8m range" do you really think Toews wouldn't have signed? Nothing he's done outside of spring 2010 has shown he deserves more than that
Uh yeah he probably would have told them to **** off in that case. That's a 16-25ish million dollar difference.

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04-18-2017, 03:16 AM
  #80
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No way

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04-18-2017, 03:17 AM
  #81
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Real Madrid took a large loan to get Christiano Ronaldo, afaik they broke even in his first year there, basically trough merchandise alone. So, with the way Toews gets hyped all the time (top 100, lol), he can certainly be worth the contract money-wise.

When it comes to the cap or "earning it", well, that's another story.

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04-18-2017, 04:40 AM
  #82
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13.8 million for finishing 50th in NHL scoring this season . Sweet gig if you can get it

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04-18-2017, 08:15 AM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Toews Era View Post
Bergeron typically gets carried in the playoffs by Krejci, so he can't really claim to have provided 1c production in the playoffs huh?

Toews 108 points in 126 playoff games 0.86ppg
Krejci 77 points in 93 playoff games 0.83ppg
Bergeron 68 points in 97 playoff games 0.70ppg

Weak playoff ppgs like that can be signed to bargain deals for sure
Ahahah... You do realize that a 0.16ppg difference over 126 games means that Toews, playing with a certain guy named Kane who put up way more points than Marchand until this year, has produced roughly ONE point more than Bergeron every SIX+ games? If that's worth $3.625m per year more than Bergeron, I do hope you will be the next GM of the Habs...

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Toews Era View Post
All those "bargain" contracts have resulted in missed playoffs 2x and squeaking in the past 3 years so i guess its not that easy
Yeah, because Marchand and Bergeron were the ones who dragged down the team. Makes sense.

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04-18-2017, 08:28 AM
  #84
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For a Top 100 player of all-time? He's a steal.

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04-18-2017, 09:21 AM
  #85
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Jonathan Toews has been paid around 125 million during his career. Sure, I'll take 3 cups for 125 million please.

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04-18-2017, 09:28 AM
  #86
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Is he worth that kind of money as far as his abilities as a player is concerned? Not even close. At least not in my opinion. He's an excellent player, but not 10.5 million a year (plus bonuses) for another 6 years "excellent".

However, from a marketing and business viewpoint he's definitely worth it to the organisation.

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04-18-2017, 10:18 AM
  #87
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Would it have been better to just let him walk?

Context:
- Around the time Toews signed his contract, the USD to CAD exchange rate closed around 1.07. Now it is in the 1.33 range.
- Around the time Toews signed his contract, the cap was going up 5 mil per year. Now, it is only going up 1 to 2 mil per year.
- The Hawks did not have anyone in-house to replace him, there were no adequate replacements available in free agency, and they did not have enough assets to trade for a replacement.
- Toews is a star player and makes the team a lot of money through marketing.

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04-18-2017, 10:26 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by VainGretzky View Post
13.8 million for finishing 50th in NHL scoring this season . Sweet gig if you can get it
3 cups and countless awesome memories. Love it as a fan.

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04-18-2017, 10:42 AM
  #89
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3 cups and countless awesome memories. Love it as a fan.
Past does not equate with the now or the future 13.8 million 1st round exit.

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04-18-2017, 11:05 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Finnish your Czech View Post
Would it have been better to just let him walk?

Context:
- Around the time Toews signed his contract, the USD to CAD exchange rate closed around 1.07. Now it is in the 1.33 range.
- Around the time Toews signed his contract, the cap was going up 5 mil per year. Now, it is only going up 1 to 2 mil per year.
- The Hawks did not have anyone in-house to replace him, there were no adequate replacements available in free agency, and they did not have enough assets to trade for a replacement.
- Toews is a star player and makes the team a lot of money through marketing.
It's not just sign him or walk. If all options are on the board, they could have explored a trade, but I get why they wouldn't do that. I'm just pointing out that more than two options existed.

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04-18-2017, 11:18 AM
  #91
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You can't really just look at the 10.5$ million hit, the real question is how much is he overpaid, if anything. Probably he shouldn't be paid more than 8.5$ million but that extra $2 million he's making isn't what's crippling the Hawks.

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04-18-2017, 11:21 AM
  #92
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Jonathan Toews is not a mediocre player. The problem is that he is paid like an elite 1st line player when he is more of an average 1st line player. Still a damn fine player, just not one that a team should cripple itself capwise over. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they have. Kane, on the other hand, I would argue is worth his contract.

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04-18-2017, 12:40 PM
  #93
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He was a passenger for 3 stanley cups and got 10m for it
Low-hanging fruit post.

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04-18-2017, 01:22 PM
  #94
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There was no way the Hawks were going to let Toews or Kane walk, They still remember what happened when they let Bobby Hull go.
Toews is going to start his own hockey league?

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04-18-2017, 01:26 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by BruinLVGA View Post
Ahahah... You do realize that a 0.16ppg difference over 126 games means that Toews, playing with a certain guy named Kane who put up way more points than Marchand until this year, has produced roughly ONE point more than Bergeron every SIX+ games? If that's worth $3.625m per year more than Bergeron, I do hope you will be the next GM of the Habs...



Yeah, because Marchand and Bergeron were the ones who dragged down the team. Makes sense.
Most of the time toews doesnt play with kane. Bergeron and marchand are however tied at the hip, boosting their combined stats a lot more than if they were on separate lines. Just proving my point even more. Even playing together all the time, bergeron hasnt come close to toews or kanes playoff production (and not even krejcis)

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04-18-2017, 01:53 PM
  #96
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Kopitar or Toews? Who do you take?

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04-18-2017, 01:57 PM
  #97
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Kopitar or Toews? Who do you take?
Depends on which version of Kopitar you're getting. I certainly wouldn't want the one who showed up this season.

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04-18-2017, 02:04 PM
  #98
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Yes. He is the face of the franchise; his marketability and what he means to hockey in the Chicago alone makes him worth it.

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04-18-2017, 02:26 PM
  #99
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Toews is going to start his own hockey league?
The Supreme Leadership Hockey League?

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04-18-2017, 02:43 PM
  #100
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Toews and Kane's contracts are anomalies. Both were signed at the worst possible time which was after 2012 lockout that limited contracts to 8 years in length but before the Canadian dollar plummeted which has slowed down the growth of the cap and re-written what teams are willing to offer star players to some extent.

Had the cap kept growing at a similar rate to what it was growing at prior to the CAD tanking, Kane and Toews contracts would have ended up being lesser percentages of the overall cap. Had both sides signed either extremely long term deals off of their ELCs, or bridge deals that ended early enough to allow them to sign an extension prior to the lockout, they could have locked down both sides to contracts similar to Keith's or Hossa's where the "fake" years on the end artificially lower the overall cap hit.

There are a handful of players who signed during that time period, and because of the circumstances of the cap landscape changing, it will be very hard for those players to live up to their inflated contracts because the market value for each caliber of player has dropped since then due to the cap levelling off. Toews is one of these players.

Whether Toews is worth it depends on how much value you place on his contributions to team culture and the Blackhawks willingness to win. Ryan O'Reilly produces similarly, both are excellent all around centers (*although O'Reilly plays wing too), and O'Reilly makes 3 million less than Toews. One thing that has to be considered is that Toews production has been very high in the playoffs more often than not. So that's a factor.

Who is Toews closer to in "value" for what he brings on the ice....Ryan O'Reilly, or pre 2016 (when he signed) Anze Kopitar? If he is closer to the former, are his contributions to Chicago's off ice culture worth an extra 3M per season?

This is an excellent post and spot on...so much that Im not even going to read the rest of them. One thing to add is that like some one else said...basically the contract is their version of a lifetime achievement award...no way he's going to "earn"that contract moving forward...Kane on the other hand, as much as it pains me to say it, seems to be getting better, so maybe he will "earn" it.

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