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Who are the Jets losing to expansion? Better question is who are we getting!

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Old
04-18-2017, 09:17 PM
  #1
Arthur Fonzarelli
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Who are the Jets losing to expansion? Better question is who are we getting!

Lot's of talk has been ongoing as to whether the Jets will go 7-3-1 or 8 skaters+1. Speculation has been endless with pages upon pages devoted to the debate of who among Perrault, Lowry, Armia, Copp or Dano will be exposed. There's been the talk of Enstrom waiving his NMC as well as the thoughts that Myers is damaged goods & will be not be protected.

Let's avoid that entirely.

There's been relatively little attention made to the huge potential the Jets have to take advantage of expansion to improve their roster.

Las Vegas will certainly draft 30 players, but of these 23 or less will ever play a regular season game with the Knights as the NHL opening day roster is set at 23. Waiver eligibility plays a huge role & the rules have been set up so that every player eligible for the expansion is also waiver eligible next season.

As such these 7+ players will be the currency with which Vegas builds it's minor league affiliate. The NHL has set a minimum threshold of 20 players being selected that are under contract for the 2017-2018 season, so any list should include ten 2017 RFA's to take full advantage of these rules.

Another valuable commodity for Vegas will be defensemen. Vegas can select as many as 13, which in most cases should prove to yield better returns than the selection & subsequent trading that forwards would.

I feel the Jets will likely be the biggest movers & shakers following the expansion draft as they have more currency in terms of prospect forwards than any other team in the NHL. Hopefully the abundance of high ceiling waiver free forwards can offset at least can one quality left shooting RFA defensemen.

This means the Jets are losing much more than one of the oft mentioned 5 forwards listed above. These additional losses will come via the trade of prospects, something collectively as valuable to the Knights organization as any single $5 million+ player they have the opportunity to select.

Many like myself have had major issues with the Jets defensive depth & have been vocal with Chevy’s lack of attention to this area, but it’s entirely possible he’s been drafting as many forwards as he has preparing for this moment. It also explains why the Jets devoted so much time this year to line juggling & provided so many prospects NHL experience in 2016-2017 from which to evaluate their future as Jets.

We're not the only ones faced with tough exposure decisions. The situation in Pittsburgh is among the most interesting with Fleury having a modified NMC. Barring a trade, Vegas takes Matt Murray who either plays for them or generates a huge return from a team like the Jets.

The situation in Brooklyn has the Islanders also debating the 7-3-1 vs 8 skaters+1 model. Boychuk has a NMC, but then decisions involving "local boys" like Minnesota born Leddy, Winnipeg born Harmonic, Dauphins' Pulock as well as Calvin De Haan have to be made. The Islanders certainly can't protect them all. Leddy's contract is $5.5 until 2022 so I doubt the Jets could add another contract like that, but a cost controlled RFA defensemen like De Haan would certainly significantly improve the Jets left side immediately & for years to come.

Obviously there are far more teams and players than the ones I brought up, but it underscores the opportunity that presents itself beginning June 18th.

The Jets may not be the team expanding, but this date has huge implications for the future of this franchise.


Last edited by Arthur Fonzarelli: 05-02-2017 at 03:04 PM. Reason: completed my RFA arguement
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Old
04-18-2017, 09:30 PM
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Hopefully we find a goaltender and a left defenseman.

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04-18-2017, 10:38 PM
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I feel we take the path of least resistance. Expose who we want and hope it goes as planned

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04-19-2017, 12:11 AM
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Arthur Fonzarelli
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[mod]

I really hope this doesn't become a lost opportunity. This is a rare chance, with huge spin-off potential.

There's a lot on the line besides simply building a better team.

The Jets 1.0 were lost due to the City Of Winnipeg refusing to make any concession on parking, concessions or rent of the former Winnipeg Arena to past ownership.

The Jets 2.0 have been granted that & far beyond. They've got an attached casino & are a summer away from the SHED district becoming a reality. Candouring to initial tenants, knowing the future of the area depends on immediate success should have this team positioned to make big moves now.

Hockey publications already have the Jets situated for near immediate success. Quality player management over this summer not only affects this team on the ice, but the success of a multi billion dollar project.

True North, Marck Chipman & the wealthiest family in Canada the Thomson family are far more invested in this city than simply the Jets. A model to fight urban sprawl is being tested in our downtown area.

There's far more pressure on Chevy than is immediately apparent. The long term future of Winnipeg can actually be affected by something that should be as insignificant as a hockey game.


Last edited by YWGinYYZ: 04-19-2017 at 03:43 AM. Reason: QDP
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04-19-2017, 01:39 AM
  #5
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Expecting Chevy to do something is wishful thinking. That said, there might be some truth to that.

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04-19-2017, 08:40 AM
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I don't know if Chevy will make the moves with Vegas that could be possible, but I've been talking about being a major trade partner with Vegas for a long time here.

It obviously depends on the costs, but Vegas could have exactly what we need (a LHD like a De Haan or Brodin/Scandella), and a goalie (like Raanta or Grubauer), and we could have what Vegas might want, (prospects and picks).

The opportunity might be there, we'll have to see how it all shakes out.

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04-19-2017, 08:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Fonzarelli View Post
It also explains why the Jets devoted so much time this year to line juggling & provided so many prospects NHL experience in 2016-2017 from which to evaluate their future as Jets.


The Jets may not be the team expanding, but this date has huge implications for the future of this franchise.
I didn't want to quote the entire post which I thought is terrific, but these two really stood out to me and give me hope that the evaluation period that we heard so much about when Maurice was hired, is actually part of a grand scheme.

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04-19-2017, 08:51 AM
  #8
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Originally Posted by Arthur Fonzarelli View Post
[mod]

I really hope this doesn't become a lost opportunity. This is a rare chance, with huge spin-off potential.

There's a lot on the line besides simply building a better team.

The Jets 1.0 were lost due to the City Of Winnipeg refusing to make any concession on parking, concessions or rent of the former Winnipeg Arena to past ownership.

The Jets 2.0 have been granted that & far beyond. They've got an attached casino & are a summer away from the SHED district becoming a reality. Candouring to initial tenants, knowing the future of the area depends on immediate success should have this team positioned to make big moves now.

Hockey publications already have the Jets situated for near immediate success. Quality player management over this summer not only affects this team on the ice, but the success of a multi billion dollar project.

True North, Marck Chipman & the wealthiest family in Canada the Thomson family are far more invested in this city than simply the Jets. A model to fight urban sprawl is being tested in our downtown area.

There's far more pressure on Chevy than is immediately apparent. The long term future of Winnipeg can actually be affected by something that should be as insignificant as a hockey game.
This is also a terrific post that I agree with wholeheartedly. There is much more on the line for Jets ownership than simply the Jets. The team is the catalyst for something much bigger and much more important to TN and to the city itself.

Really hope they can pull it off, because I'm of the belief that this summer is THE summer to make a move to being a serious contender.

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04-19-2017, 09:09 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Fonzarelli View Post
[mod]

I really hope this doesn't become a lost opportunity. This is a rare chance, with huge spin-off potential.

There's a lot on the line besides simply building a better team.

The Jets 1.0 were lost due to the City Of Winnipeg refusing to make any concession on parking, concessions or rent of the former Winnipeg Arena to past ownership.

The Jets 2.0 have been granted that & far beyond. They've got an attached casino & are a summer away from the SHED district becoming a reality. Candouring to initial tenants, knowing the future of the area depends on immediate success should have this team positioned to make big moves now.

Hockey publications already have the Jets situated for near immediate success. Quality player management over this summer not only affects this team on the ice, but the success of a multi billion dollar project.

True North, Marck Chipman & the wealthiest family in Canada the Thomson family are far more invested in this city than simply the Jets. A model to fight urban sprawl is being tested in our downtown area.

There's far more pressure on Chevy than is immediately apparent. The long term future of Winnipeg can actually be affected by something that should be as insignificant as a hockey game.
Good post and I agree that there will be mounting pressure to start to win. This is why I'm optimistic that aggressive moves will be made this summer. The nucleus both old and new is in place and talented enough to not just sneak in but make some noise. It just flat out is time.

I think Chevy will use the expansion draft as the means to fill a hole. I feel that he already has the framework worked out with McPhee on a deal to bring in one of Raanta or Grubaur in net. I feel this is likely due to Maurice continually mentioning how he doesn't care about the goalies age in his end of year press conference. I imagine he is privy to the plan for next season and was setting the table for a young guy like Raanta to come in.

I would expect the Jets to then add another depth piece at the draft or in FA.

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04-19-2017, 10:19 AM
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Isn't Pittsburgh expected to buy out Fleury so they can keep Matt Murray?

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04-19-2017, 11:24 AM
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Arthur Fonzarelli
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Isn't Pittsburgh expected to buy out Fleury so they can keep Matt Murray?
That's one option.

He has 2 years remaining with $11.5 million in salary owed. My understanding is a buy out is 2/3's of that amount, so it would cost the Penguins $7.6 million.

He has a modified no trade clause which includes a list of 18 teams he'll accept a trade to. This makes him ineligible for expansion, so a trade or buy out is necessary before the middle of June if they want to keep Murray on their protected players list.

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04-19-2017, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Arthur Fonzarelli View Post
That's one option.

He has 2 years remaining with $11.5 million in salary owed. My understanding is a buy out is 2/3's of that amount, so it would cost the Penguins $7.6 million.

He has a modified no trade clause which includes a list of 18 teams he'll accept a trade to. This makes him ineligible for expansion, so a trade or buy out is necessary before the middle of June if they want to keep Murray on their protected players list.
I don't see any team trading for and protecting Fleury though. I think Pitts will be forced to use a buyout.

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04-19-2017, 12:28 PM
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Neat post and I can definitely see the Jets being a team very interested in dealing with the Knights because of the assets we have and what the Knights will be able to acquire. I suspect there might be quite a few other teams looking at the opportunity in the same way though and I'm not familiar enough with other teams to provide examples that might present them as competitors to the Jets plan.

We certainly have a degree of riches in terms of young forwards but how much will we be willing to part with? I'd have to think Vegas is looking at Connor/Roslovic much more than the usual staples we as Jets fan would offer up (cough*Petan+cough). Who are the untouchables (Scheifele/Laine) and who are not (Ehlers? Perreault? Lowry? Armia?)? Would we move Helle for an established goaltender?

What picks would the Jets part with that entice the Knights? Can a draft and develop team part with 1st round picks? Chevy has shown a willingness to move his 2nd previously but is that enough from Vegas' standpoint?

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04-19-2017, 12:40 PM
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I don't see any team trading for and protecting Fleury though. I think Pitts will be forced to use a buyout.
If the Jets wanted Fleury and are not convinced that Hellebuyck is their future number one, and assuming Fleury agrees to a trade to Winnipeg, give Pitts a late round draft pick for him and maybe some other asset that we want. This would save Pittsburg the salary and cap space of a buyout. The Jets could then protect Fleury and expose Hellebuyck and Hutch. Fleury could be our number one until Comrie is ready. If Hellebuyck is taken by Vegas, it means we have been successful in keeping all of our forwards and defencemen. Maybe, just maybe??

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04-19-2017, 01:03 PM
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If the Jets wanted Fleury and are not convinced that Hellebuyck is their future number one, and assuming Fleury agrees to a trade to Winnipeg, give Pitts a late round draft pick for him and maybe some other asset that we want. This would save Pittsburg the salary and cap space of a buyout. The Jets could then protect Fleury and expose Hellebuyck and Hutch. Fleury could be our number one until Comrie is ready. If Hellebuyck is taken by Vegas, it means we have been successful in keeping all of our forwards and defencemen. Maybe, just maybe??
Fleury has a NMC. Why would he waive it to come to Winnipeg? If he's smart he'll force the Pens to buy him out, pocket the buyout money, and then sign as a UFA with whichever team he prefers.

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04-19-2017, 01:22 PM
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Fleury has a NMC. Why would he waive it to come to Winnipeg? If he's smart he'll force the Pens to buy him out, pocket the buyout money, and then sign as a UFA with whichever team he prefers.
I don't know.

Maybe he looks at Winnipeg as an opportunity to be an unchallenged starter on a team on the cusp of greatness.

He is 32 years old. Maybe he would prefer to get $11.5 million over 2 years then $7.67 million over 4 and not take his chances on free agency.

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04-19-2017, 02:00 PM
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Arthur Fonzarelli
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Fleury has a NMC. Why would he waive it to come to Winnipeg? If he's smart he'll force the Pens to buy him out, pocket the buyout money, and then sign as a UFA with whichever team he prefers.
Fleury doesn't have a full NMC. He has a list of 18 teams he'd accept a trade to.

That said, I doubt Winnipeg is one of those 18.

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04-19-2017, 03:01 PM
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I think one thing that definitely needs to be mentioned more:

Vegas is also getting an NFL team in 2019. This is most definitely going to take away a ton of the attention away from the hockey team, so Vegas basically has to make sure the hockey team is competitive by then, and that it stays competitive. A losing hockey team ins Vegas with a currently competitive NFL team coming in will definitely mean very bad things for the Golden Knights.

So yeah just keep in my that Vegas will not be taking the slow rebuild, draft and develop method that the jets took. They're gonna look to be competitive asap.

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04-19-2017, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Arthur Fonzarelli View Post
Fleury doesn't have a full NMC. He has a list of 18 teams he'd accept a trade to.

That said, I doubt Winnipeg is one of those 18.
Agree that it is doubtful Winnipeg is an acceptable destination, but...

Will any of those 18 teams take him on with that salary and the possibility to lose him or another goaltender in the expansion draft as they can only protect one? The fly in the ointment for everyone is the XD and the Pens would need to move Fleury prior to that. Who has $11.5 in cap space to pick him up? Not many teams I don't think. Sure, cap space will go back but I'm guessing most GMs in the league are going to lowball on Fleury because the Pens are up against it and no one is going to be making super deals to land a 32 year old goaltender just to help the Pens out of that situation.

It's possible that Fleury might see Winnipeg as an opportunity as peg puts it but even then, 32 year old goaltender eating up $5.75 in cap space? Might not be that appealing to us. Probably have the cap space in 17-18 but the year after not so much as we re-sign Ehlers among others.

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04-19-2017, 03:08 PM
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Minni has an influx of DMen they gotta protect it seems. Suter, Scandella, Spurgeon Brodin, Dumba maybe swing something with them

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04-19-2017, 03:19 PM
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Minni has an influx of DMen they gotta protect it seems. Suter, Scandella, Spurgeon Brodin, Dumba maybe swing something with them
We would be in the exact same spot in that case. We already have 4 on our own to protect.

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04-19-2017, 03:21 PM
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Good stuff Fonz. I agree, great opportunity. I hope Chevy surprises the crap out of us and makes some big moves. I agree we're very well positioned to do so.

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04-19-2017, 06:59 PM
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Arthur Fonzarelli
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Minni has an influx of DMen they gotta protect it seems. Suter, Scandella, Spurgeon Brodin, Dumba maybe swing something with them
The point of my post was that any deals the Jets make will be for players Vegas literally selects, not pre-draft deals that cloud protection lists & complicate things further.

As already brought up Vegas will need to deal at least 7 players & the currency to acquire them will likely be 1st-3rd year professionals or prospects still in junior or college.

Minnesota could very well expose two of the players you mentioned. LSD's Brodin & Scandella could both end up available, or perhaps a cost controlled RFA like Gustav Olofsson, but I think that Vegas will have better defensive options than any of the players mentioned here available to them.

Like the Jets, Minnesota has an abundance of forwards they'd like to protect & even going 7-3-1 won't allow them to protect every one of them. Jason Zucker could easily be made available & then subsequently selected by Vegas.

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04-20-2017, 11:13 AM
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Am I missing something? Why don't we just buy out Enstrom?

Buyout Details
SEASON SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT ACTUAL COST SAVINGS BUYOUT CAP HIT
2017-18 $4,600,000 $5,750,000 $1,533,333 $3,066,667 $2,683,333
2018-19 $0 $0 $1,533,333 -$1,533,333 $1,533,333

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_c...nstrom#results


Last edited by Saidin: 04-20-2017 at 11:14 AM. Reason: Clean up formatting
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04-20-2017, 11:19 AM
  #25
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Am I missing something? Why don't we just buy out Enstrom?

Buyout Details
SEASON SALARY INITIAL CAP HIT ACTUAL COST SAVINGS BUYOUT CAP HIT
2017-18 $4,600,000 $5,750,000 $1,533,333 $3,066,667 $2,683,333
2018-19 $0 $0 $1,533,333 -$1,533,333 $1,533,333

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_c...nstrom#results
The Jets don't do buy outs. Plus, buying him out means he's gone and they'd have to sign someone to replace him (you can't re-sign a player you bought out for 1 year) - or roll with Ben Chiarot as 2LD behind Morrissey? Yikes.

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