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Series Thread - WCSF - (C3) St. Louis Blues 2 vs (WC2) Nashville Predators 4

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Old
04-24-2017, 09:48 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by bdub24 View Post
I went overboard prior to the start of the Blackhawk series and earned myself an infraction so I'll tone it down here...but I just want to say that we need to kick these guys square in the taint and keep kicking until their eyes cross and their poisoned-by-mass-produced-beer livers explode inside their barbecue rib fat bloated guts. We need to pin them to the end boards until they cry for their mommas and apologize for ever thinking they would get to a cup final if they had to get past us to do it. We need to rip that music note off their chests and bring it back to music city with us. No mercy! No prisomers! No quarter!

And for the record, almost every single Carolinas Identity's posts scares the bejesus out of me, like he-keeps-bodies-in-the-basement fear levels here!
I like this guy.

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04-25-2017, 12:01 AM
  #102
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Posted on the main board as well, but here are the NBCSN broadcast teams for the first 4 games.

I like Pierre also, he highly knowledgeable about the Predators and does not come off as condescending towards the team. Some NBC personnel act as if is a chore to discuss the Predators.

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04-25-2017, 12:39 AM
  #103
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The only edge I give to the St. Louis Blues is they have made it pass the second round where as our team hasn't. So in that regard they have more experience than we do but just like most gave Chicago the edge w/ their PO experience I can only hope this is the year the Preds prove me won and finally get pass the second round.

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04-25-2017, 07:10 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Hinterland View Post
Did you watch the Wild vs St.Louis series? Blues are so good defensively that the only way you're gonna beat them is relentless offense. You need to create havoc or you won't ever get high danger chances. If they have time to organize themselves, they'll let you shoot from the point or from bad angles but they won't ever let you get a shot away inside the slot or get to the dangerous rebounds. Unlike Chicago, they always find a way to block shots, too. I wouldn't rely on Josi or Subban to seal this series offensively.
What I'm trying to say...I get that Wilson and Harry Z have been fantastic up to this point but they're bad at hockey and the Blues are tough enough to take on without them.

Lots of combinations possible for Lines 1-3 but the 4th line should absolutely be Aberg, Sissons, Salomaki. For line 1-3 I'd probably go with Forsberg, Fisher, Arvidsson / Fiala, Johansen, Neal / Wilson, Jarnkrok, Smith. But it doesn't really matter anyway. Might as well keep the Johansen and Jarnkrok lines together.
I'm assuming you meant Watson, cause Wilson hasn't played yet.

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04-25-2017, 07:52 AM
  #105
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I think a lot of people who didn't watch either series (Eastern Time Zone fans) are more impressed by us beating Chitago than the Blues beating the Wild. I think the Blues are being underrated. And I am not confident that we can live up to our hype. (See preseason predictions). Blues have an edge as the underdog now.

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04-25-2017, 07:58 AM
  #106
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I think a lot of people who didn't watch either series (Eastern Time Zone fans) are more impressed by us beating Chitago than the Blues beating the Wild. I think the Blues are being underrated. And I am not confident that we can live up to our hype. (See preseason predictions). Blues have an edge as the underdog now.
I think the reason most are giving us the edge is that St. Louis appears to have leaned heavily on Allen being insanely good, where Rinne just had to be good. Really I figure most picking are either believing Allen keeps it up or if he slips a bit, and this is assuming Rinne stays solid.

Frankly most of the rest of it is fairly even I think if you look at both teams. To me personally it's a toss up series.

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04-25-2017, 08:00 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Armourboy View Post
I think the reason most are giving us the edge is that St. Louis appears to have leaned heavily on Allen being insanely good, where Rinne just had to be good. Really I figure most picking are either believing Allen keeps it up or if he slips a bit, and this is assuming Rinne stays solid.

Frankly most of the rest of it is fairly even I think if you look at both teams. To me personally it's a toss up series.
They were badly outplayed by the Wild almost the entire series, whereas we outplayed a huge chunk of our series against the WC champs. The Blues are the best team in the NHL since Feb 1. but as we have witnessed the reg. season doesn't mean anything in the playoffs.

A really 50/60 series.

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04-25-2017, 09:31 AM
  #108
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They were badly outplayed by the Wild almost the entire series, whereas we outplayed a huge chunk of our series against the WC champs. The Blues are the best team in the NHL since Feb 1. but as we have witnessed the reg. season doesn't mean anything in the playoffs.

A really 50/60 series.
We should know about the Blues late season schedule considering we were chasing them. They played one of the worst 2 or 3 teams in the league every night it seemed like.

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04-25-2017, 09:44 AM
  #109
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I'm assuming you meant Watson, cause Wilson hasn't played yet.
Exactly. Typo. I got it right when I put the lines together. Watson has been fantastic so far but I'd dress Wilson over him because he's a better hockey player. I'm also convinced that Salomaki is better than Harry Z. Plays harder, too.

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04-25-2017, 09:58 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Scoresberg View Post
They were badly outplayed by the Wild almost the entire series, whereas we outplayed a huge chunk of our series against the WC champs. The Blues are the best team in the NHL since Feb 1. but as we have witnessed the reg. season doesn't mean anything in the playoffs.

A really 50/60 series.
This is getting overlooked by a lot of our own and definitely by St Louis fans.

The Wild carried a 61% Corsi in the series -- some of that is that they spent most of it down by a goal, which will cause the team with the lead to sit back and the team trailing to press, but make no mistake -- Jake Allen won that series, and I don't think that's a good formula. The most dominating goaltender performance I've ever seen in the playoffs -- Giguere with the 2002-03 Ducks -- still ended in a SCF loss to the Devils.

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04-25-2017, 10:33 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by nomorekids View Post
This is getting overlooked by a lot of our own and definitely by St Louis fans.

The Wild carried a 61% Corsi in the series -- some of that is that they spent most of it down by a goal, which will cause the team with the lead to sit back and the team trailing to press, but make no mistake -- Jake Allen won that series, and I don't think that's a good formula. The most dominating goaltender performance I've ever seen in the playoffs -- Giguere with the 2002-03 Ducks -- still ended in a SCF loss to the Devils.
Corsi are shot based and mean exactly nothing if you're playing the Blues.

Allen was good but Dubnyk was as well. Allen was outstanding in the fist half and okayish in the 2nd. Even gave up some bad goal and looked more and more shaky. Allen is a good goalie but make no mistake. Yeo really tightened their defense. Minnesota had lots of offensive zone time but not many great chances. Do not undererstimate this Blues team. You need to create havoc in order to get high danger chances. Otherwise they'll only give you shots from bad angles and that's not gonna do it against Allen. Keep in mind that Allen's numbers are great ever since Yeo took over. To say that Allen won the series would be wrong. The Blues play as tight as 5man units as it gets and they have x-factors like Tarasenko or Schwartz who can disappear for 50' mins and then decide a game in 5' or less. They also got Stastny back which is huge since they're thin at Center.

Obviously rooting for the Preds but to me, the Blues are the clear favourites. Not just in this series but particularly in this one. Preds usually rely on the blueline to create chances...not sure that's gonna work against these Blues. Only relentless offense I'd say.


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Old
04-25-2017, 11:00 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Hinterland View Post
Corsi are shot based and mean exactly nothing if you're playing the Blues.

Allen was good but Dubnyk was as well. Allen was outstanding in the fist half and okayish in the 2nd. Even gave up some bad goals in Game 6 and looked shaky. Allen is a good goalie but make no mistake. Yeo really tightened their defense. Minnesota had lots of offensive zone time but not many great chances. Do not undererstimate this Blues team. You need to create havoc in order to get high danger chances. Otherwise they'll only give you shots from bad angles and that's not gonna do it against Allen. Keep in mind that Allen's numbers are great ever since Yeo took over. To say that Allen won the series would be wrong. The Blues play as tight as 5man units as it gets and they have x-factors like Tarasenko or Schwartz who can disappear for 50' mins and then decide a game in 5' or less. They also got Stastny back which is huge since they're thin at Center.

Obviously rooting for the Preds but to me, the Blues are the clear favourites. Not just in this series but particularly in this one. Preds usually rely on the blueline to create chances...not sure that's gonna work against these Blues. Only relentless offense I'd say.
I'm sorry, but what you're saying doesn't make any sense. "Corsi just measures shots?" No, it measures possession -- and in raw possession, Minnesota generated 60% of the Corsi events in the series. That's almost unheard of, and is in fact the third highest CF% of any series since 2003 (interesting, the 2008 series between Detroit and Nashville is number 2).

To speak to your quality of chances -- Minnesota carried an xGF% of 59.02 -- by far the best in the first round. St Louis on the other hand had an xGF of 21.48, not surprisingly the worst. Since you raised that Corsi just "measures shots," expected Goals For takes that into consideration and basically summarizes the quality of shots and scoring chances. Just as they did in terms of raw possession, Minnesota owned this statistic and was clearly superior.

Finally, let's look at goaltending stats:

Jake Allen faced 24 "High Danger" shot attempts, and saved 95 percent of them. 24 HDSA is the tenth most, so the Blues were actually only a little better than average at limiting them. That 95% however is the best in the playoffs. Middle of the pack for medium danger SAs as well. Again, he lead the league in MD%.

Rinne, on the other hand, faced only 15 HD SA's -- least among all starters in the playoffs (he actually tied with Brian Elliott, but I give him the edge since the Flames went to their backup more than once). 7th in MD SA's.

The fact that the Blues won that series in spite of these numbers reiterates my point -- they won on goaltending, and goaltending alone. The Wild got a fair\average amount of chances, and Allen was up to the task -- but above all, the Wild controlled the puck. Owned it. The Predators, NOT the Blues, were the team that absolutely shut down their opponent and gave up very few chances, and the Blues are the ones that will have to generate more than they did in the first round. I don't expect an easy series, but just going on the results of the first round, the Predators are rightfully favored going in.

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Old
04-25-2017, 11:30 AM
  #113
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Tomorrow can't come fast enough. Though I predicted the Blues to win in 7, anything can happen and I've been aching to get this rivalry ramped up in the Playoffs for years.

At least the Grizzlies play tonight to help pass the time. I don't know of if anyone else here is watching, but the series with the Spurs, particularly game 4, has been extremely entertaining.

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04-25-2017, 11:54 AM
  #114
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Tomorrow can't come fast enough. Though I predicted the Blues to win in 7, anything can happen and I've been aching to get this rivalry ramped up in the Playoffs for years.

At least the Grizzlies play tonight to help pass the time. I don't know of if anyone else here is watching, but the series with the Spurs, particularly game 4, has been extremely entertaining.
I saw game 4. I don't particularly like the Grizzlies, in fact I kinda want the Spurs to win because of one of their players but that was a hell of a game. For that game anyway I was rooting for the Grizz.

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04-25-2017, 12:06 PM
  #115
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I'm sorry, but what you're saying doesn't make any sense. "Corsi just measures shots?" No, it measures possession -- and in raw possession, Minnesota generated 60% of the Corsi events in the series. That's almost unheard of, and is in fact the third highest CF% of any series since 2003 (interesting, the 2008 series between Detroit and Nashville is number 2).

To speak to your quality of chances -- Minnesota carried an xGF% of 59.02 -- by far the best in the first round. St Louis on the other hand had an xGF of 21.48, not surprisingly the worst. Since you raised that Corsi just "measures shots," expected Goals For takes that into consideration and basically summarizes the quality of shots and scoring chances. Just as they did in terms of raw possession, Minnesota owned this statistic and was clearly superior.

Finally, let's look at goaltending stats:

Jake Allen faced 24 "High Danger" shot attempts, and saved 95 percent of them. 24 HDSA is the tenth most, so the Blues were actually only a little better than average at limiting them. That 95% however is the best in the playoffs. Middle of the pack for medium danger SAs as well. Again, he lead the league in MD%.

Rinne, on the other hand, faced only 15 HD SA's -- least among all starters in the playoffs (he actually tied with Brian Elliott, but I give him the edge since the Flames went to their backup more than once). 7th in MD SA's.

The fact that the Blues won that series in spite of these numbers reiterates my point -- they won on goaltending, and goaltending alone. The Wild got a fair\average amount of chances, and Allen was up to the task -- but above all, the Wild controlled the puck. Owned it. The Predators, NOT the Blues, were the team that absolutely shut down their opponent and gave up very few chances, and the Blues are the ones that will have to generate more than they did in the first round. I don't expect an easy series, but just going on the results of the first round, the Predators are rightfully favored going in.
See, in the end you're still measuring shots while talking about possession. Advanced stats can be useful at times but you can't explain everything with them. And you need to know what do with them.
The Blues play tight defense ever since Yeo took over and changed the system. It's no coincidence, not just Allen all of a sudden being world class that got the Blues to where they are now...no matter how many advanced stats you come up with in trying to prove that.
I'm no Blues fan at all but you have to say that they're pretty good in what they do. They hardly allow goals and turned into winners, winning many close games under Yeo.

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04-25-2017, 12:42 PM
  #116
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Blues fan (obviously) coming in peace. Good luck guys. Really looking forward to this series. I always like when two teams who rarely played each other in the playoffs get to play. Much like Dallas vs St. Louis last year. I think this series will really foster this rivalry.

I don't think this series will be a push over for either team. I know you guys won in decisive fashion again the Hawks behind good goaltending, solid defense who didn't let the Hawks forwards have much time/space, and constant attacking. Preds played on their toes close to the entire series.

I will only argue the one point that seems to be prevalent in this thread, Allen alone didn't steal that series for the Blues. He was VERY good, don't get me wrong, he stole Game 1. However, a lot of it was the Blues defense limiting 2nd and 3rd chances. They weren't really available for the Wild until the 2nd half of period 3 in Game 5. The Blues were playing a bend, don't break, style against the Wild to compensate for their speed. The thought that Allen is the only reason they won, is doing a disservice to how the defense played.

Again, good luck, and my wife and I are going to try to make it down for a game, so please let me know some good places to go in Nashville.

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04-25-2017, 02:03 PM
  #117
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Out of all the teams that made the playoffs in the west the blues worry me the most. I was happy they were playing the blackhawks over playing the blues in the first round. We simply don't match up as well against them vs any other team in the west. If Allen plays like he generally does against us it is going to be really hard to win this series. Hopefully they can pull this out because I feel really good about our chances vs the oilers or the ducks. Going to be 6 or 7 games though no matter what way it goes. Can't wait for tomorrow night to get here already!

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04-25-2017, 02:29 PM
  #118
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Out of all the teams that made the playoffs in the west the blues worry me the most. I was happy they were playing the blackhawks over playing the blues in the first round. We simply don't match up as well against them vs any other team in the west. If Allen plays like he generally does against us it is going to be really hard to win this series. Hopefully they can pull this out because I feel really good about our chances vs the oilers or the ducks. Going to be 6 or 7 games though no matter what way it goes. Can't wait for tomorrow night to get here already!
I agree with you entirely. Again, not a fan of the Blues but I'm impressed. My bracket has them as champions this year. To me, they're best team in the West and I also agree with you that the Preds game isn't ideal against the Blues, too. That said, I don't agree with those voices saying that Chicago was a joke this year. The Preds just simply outplayed and outcompeted the Blackhawks. To me, Chicago, alongside Nashville, Minnesota, San Jose and of course St.Louis remains one of the top teams in the Western Conference.

Now the Sharks lost to the Oilers I agree with you that that the bracket is wide open for the winner of this series. Will be interesting to see what the offense does if there's less space. The Wild certainly showed in Games 5 and 6 that relentless offense can break the Blues and with sustained pressure it's also possible to affect Allen's confidence. The Blues play hard as a 5man unit to protect the slot so I fear that damage/shutdown units like Fisher, Watson and Harry Z aren't gonna be enough. Wilson should be able to add much needed offensive firepower. Win this and everything is possible...

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04-25-2017, 02:34 PM
  #119
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Blues fan (obviously) coming in peace. Good luck guys. Really looking forward to this series. I always like when two teams who rarely played each other in the playoffs get to play. Much like Dallas vs St. Louis last year. I think this series will really foster this rivalry.

I don't think this series will be a push over for either team. I know you guys won in decisive fashion again the Hawks behind good goaltending, solid defense who didn't let the Hawks forwards have much time/space, and constant attacking. Preds played on their toes close to the entire series.

I will only argue the one point that seems to be prevalent in this thread, Allen alone didn't steal that series for the Blues. He was VERY good, don't get me wrong, he stole Game 1. However, a lot of it was the Blues defense limiting 2nd and 3rd chances. They weren't really available for the Wild until the 2nd half of period 3 in Game 5. The Blues were playing a bend, don't break, style against the Wild to compensate for their speed. The thought that Allen is the only reason they won, is doing a disservice to how the defense played.

Again, good luck, and my wife and I are going to try to make it down for a game, so please let me know some good places to go in Nashville.
Exactly. That's what I was trying to get across as well.
I fully expect the Blues to play the same type of game against Nashville. Just like they did before. Yeo's new defense system works brilliantly. Guys bought into it especially guys like Edmundson or Parayko really improved big time under Yeo.

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04-25-2017, 03:44 PM
  #120
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Blues fan (obviously) coming in peace. Good luck guys. Really looking forward to this series. I always like when two teams who rarely played each other in the playoffs get to play. Much like Dallas vs St. Louis last year. I think this series will really foster this rivalry.

I don't think this series will be a push over for either team. I know you guys won in decisive fashion again the Hawks behind good goaltending, solid defense who didn't let the Hawks forwards have much time/space, and constant attacking. Preds played on their toes close to the entire series.

I will only argue the one point that seems to be prevalent in this thread, Allen alone didn't steal that series for the Blues. He was VERY good, don't get me wrong, he stole Game 1. However, a lot of it was the Blues defense limiting 2nd and 3rd chances. They weren't really available for the Wild until the 2nd half of period 3 in Game 5. The Blues were playing a bend, don't break, style against the Wild to compensate for their speed. The thought that Allen is the only reason they won, is doing a disservice to how the defense played.

Again, good luck, and my wife and I are going to try to make it down for a game, so please let me know some good places to go in Nashville.
Dont disagree that the Blues played sound defense, much the same we did against Chicago. But after watching most of that series, without Allen playing the way he did, especially early in the series, there is probably a different outcome in that series.

One thing is for sure, I expect this to be more of a 2-1 type of series where the winner is basically determined by who get's the bounces.

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04-25-2017, 04:02 PM
  #121
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Dont disagree that the Blues played sound defense, much the same we did against Chicago. But after watching most of that series, without Allen playing the way he did, especially early in the series, there is probably a different outcome in that series.

One thing is for sure, I expect this to be more of a 2-1 type of series where the winner is basically determined by who get's the bounces.
You know that the series ended 4-1, right? Ok, St.Louis wasn't all that good in Game 5 and I also predicted 7 games but still...like others mentioned before...it wasn't Allen who won the series. His stats have been great ever since Yeo took over. It's their zone based defense system that makes the difference. I wouldn't rely on lucky bounces as the Blues zone is usually well covered. I keep repeating myself but this isn't gonna work without disorganizing the Blues by relentless offense.

Allen saved less than 90% in only four 4 Games out of 30 he played for Mike Yeo. You don't want to tell me that the Blues would have lost most of those games without Allen, don't you?
Strange enough, Carter Hutton's numbers also improved after Yeo took over. Make no mistake...Allen is a pretty good goalie but he's by no means the reason why the Blues are such a good team.


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04-25-2017, 04:32 PM
  #122
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I can't wait for this to get started.

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04-25-2017, 10:10 PM
  #123
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This article will make Preds fans smile- unless you don't like being a favorite...


http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...ns-for-round-2

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04-26-2017, 01:45 AM
  #124
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You know that the series ended 4-1, right? Ok, St.Louis wasn't all that good in Game 5 and I also predicted 7 games but still...like others mentioned before...it wasn't Allen who won the series. His stats have been great ever since Yeo took over. It's their zone based defense system that makes the difference. I wouldn't rely on lucky bounces as the Blues zone is usually well covered. I keep repeating myself but this isn't gonna work without disorganizing the Blues by relentless offense.

Allen saved less than 90% in only four 4 Games out of 30 he played for Mike Yeo. You don't want to tell me that the Blues would have lost most of those games without Allen, don't you?
Strange enough, Carter Hutton's numbers also improved after Yeo took over. Make no mistake...Allen is a pretty good goalie but he's by no means the reason why the Blues are such a good team.
Yes, we get it, Yeo made their team defense the best in the league. Hands down. But Allen was in "god mode" in that series, if you don't agree you didn't watch the games. Period.

No one's arguing that they're not great defensively but they hardly got any offense generated against the Wild and got bouncy goals + Dubnyk wasn't at his best. Like it has been said, Allen completely stole Game 1 and determined a lot of how the series would end.

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04-26-2017, 02:09 AM
  #125
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Yes, we get it, Yeo made their team defense the best in the league. Hands down. But Allen was in "god mode" in that series, if you don't agree you didn't watch the games. Period.

No one's arguing that they're not great defensively but they hardly got any offense generated against the Wild and got bouncy goals + Dubnyk wasn't at his best. Like it has been said, Allen completely stole Game 1 and determined a lot of how the series would end.
Exactly, I'm not coming to my opinion based on some crazy advanced stats or something, I watched the games. The Wild pretty much dominated play and they had their chances which Allen stopped for the most part.

As I've said many times, if you turned the score off and just watched the game, there is no way in heck you would believe St. Louis was winning that series. You can keep saying, Yeo, defense, etc. and you aren't wrong, but you aren't 100% correct either.

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