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2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2

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Old
05-08-2017, 03:10 PM
  #76
Jame
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Below is some advanced stats-y stuff about draft-eligible CHL players (thus, Makar and Heiskanen not included). That Markus Phillips (D, Owen Sound) looks like he could be a steal in the 2nd round.

NOTE: All of the advanced stats guys absolutely despise Rasmussen.

Glass and Geekie

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05-08-2017, 04:52 PM
  #77
itwasaforwardpass
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Don't disagree on Rasmussen, but I'm not sure TOI, pts, and +/- relative to team are advanced stats.
Yeah. Seems strange to make this ranking based basically on points and +/-. There should be other things, notably shot metrics, included.

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05-08-2017, 04:56 PM
  #78
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Glass and Geekie
Nick Suzuki at 95% leads the class.

Good god look at Rasmussen, he's awful, the GM who takes him top 10 won't be a GM for long. Not saying he's going to be a total bust but just his stats alone tell you he's not going to be a top 6 NHL forward.

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05-08-2017, 05:02 PM
  #79
dotcommunism
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Originally Posted by itwasaforwardpass View Post
Yeah. Seems strange to make this ranking based basically on points and +/-. There should be other things, notably shot metrics, included.
But do the CHL leagues track the necessary information for that? That's a pretty big issue. You can only work with the information you actually have available.

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05-08-2017, 05:14 PM
  #80
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But do the CHL leagues track the necessary information for that? That's a pretty big issue. You can only work with the information you actually have available.
http://prospect-stats.com

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05-08-2017, 05:25 PM
  #81
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Someone who's been catching my eye lately is Connor Timmins. With numbers supporting him, it won't be long before others see him too. Was hoping a 2nd.

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05-08-2017, 05:34 PM
  #82
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I love Lias Andersson, too much of a reach for us and we need a dman but some team is going to get a beauty in the middle of the first round in Andersson. He could be ready for the NHL but is certainly ready for the AHL next season.

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05-08-2017, 05:51 PM
  #83
dotcommunism
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So what I see here is that the WHL doesn't track shot data which means if you want to do a CHL-wide comparison, you can't use anything shot related as a datapoint.

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05-08-2017, 06:49 PM
  #84
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Someone who's been catching my eye lately is Connor Timmins. With numbers supporting him, it won't be long before others see him too. Was hoping a 2nd.
Mentioned him earlier in the thread as my choice as well. Would be a good get.

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05-08-2017, 07:11 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by BiPolarBear View Post
I love Lias Andersson, too much of a reach for us and we need a dman but some team is going to get a beauty in the middle of the first round in Andersson. He could be ready for the NHL but is certainly ready for the AHL next season.
I agree. I wish we could package our 2nd and any prospect not named nylander or Guhle to move up and nab him. Imagine him and asplund on this team come playoff time...

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05-08-2017, 11:50 PM
  #86
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If this stat is correct, it's fun: Kailer Yamamoto and Nick Suzuki both have an identical primary points/60 as Sam Reinhart did in his draft year: 1.17.

So, if someone told you that, at 8OA, the Sabres could pick up a play-making center with vision like Reinhart, much better hands than Sam Reinhart, but *skating* like Reinhart: would you do it?

That appears to be Nick Suzuki. And, while Reinhart was one of the older players in his draft, Suzuki is one of the youngest. Obviously, this draft is wide-open and you could probably make a case for taking any one of 20 other guys at 8, but...that's a interesting comparable for us fans to ponder, imo.

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05-09-2017, 12:44 AM
  #87
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Regarding Cale Makar:

As much as I want to be on board the "draft smaller skilled players no matter what" bandwagon, he's a defenseman playing in the Alberta Jr. league. The only recent draft comparable in the early first round for undersized defensemen..that I can think of...is Ryan Ellis - but Ryan Ellis put up absurd numbers *in the O* *in his D -1 year, his draft year and his post-draft years, too.* Then, there are several later-round picks who have become successful NHL players. Shayne Gostisbehere, Jared Spurgeon, Torey Krug (undrafted). I mean...I want to believe. But, for Cale Makar to turn into an NHL star means he's probably more like Gostisbehere, and Ghost was 3rd round pick who was drafted out of NCAA hockey already and who entered the league at 22.

So, if I'm playing the percentages, I'm happy to let another team pick Makar above me, and if he becomes a star, then we should congratulate them for their prescience. But if he's there when I pick, I'm not taking an undersized defenseman from a second-tier league that high. His production in a lower league is great, but it's too attenuated to justify such a high pick, imo.

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05-09-2017, 03:20 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by toomuchsauce View Post
Regarding Cale Makar:

As much as I want to be on board the "draft smaller skilled players no matter what" bandwagon, he's a defenseman playing in the Alberta Jr. league. The only recent draft comparable in the early first round for undersized defensemen..that I can think of...is Ryan Ellis - but Ryan Ellis put up absurd numbers *in the O* *in his D -1 year, his draft year and his post-draft years, too.* Then, there are several later-round picks who have become successful NHL players. Shayne Gostisbehere, Jared Spurgeon, Torey Krug (undrafted). I mean...I want to believe. But, for Cale Makar to turn into an NHL star means he's probably more like Gostisbehere, and Ghost was 3rd round pick who was drafted out of NCAA hockey already and who entered the league at 22.

So, if I'm playing the percentages, I'm happy to let another team pick Makar above me, and if he becomes a star, then we should congratulate them for their prescience. But if he's there when I pick, I'm not taking an undersized defenseman from a second-tier league that high. His production in a lower league is great, but it's too attenuated to justify such a high pick, imo.
I somewhat agree. The problem I have is the window for sabres winning before contracts become a problem is 2-3 years. If we want to take our chance at the cup guys like Makar might not be in the NHL for 2-3 years.

Trade the pick for a top 4 defenceman. Go for it now and next year.

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05-09-2017, 06:17 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by HeartforReinheart View Post
I somewhat agree. The problem I have is the window for sabres winning before contracts become a problem is 2-3 years. If we want to take our chance at the cup guys like Makar might not be in the NHL for 2-3 years.

Trade the pick for a top 4 defenceman. Go for it now and next year.
2-edged sword...in 2-3 years time we will need top talent on ELC.

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05-09-2017, 09:05 AM
  #90
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2-edged sword...in 2-3 years time we will need top talent on ELC.
Sooner or later you have to take a chance and in 2-3 years you still have picks from rounds 2-7. We had a good stock of 1st and 2nds and where did that get us?

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05-09-2017, 09:18 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by HeartforReinheart View Post
I somewhat agree. The problem I have is the window for sabres winning before contracts become a problem is 2-3 years. If we want to take our chance at the cup guys like Makar might not be in the NHL for 2-3 years.

Trade the pick for a top 4 defenceman. Go for it now and next year.
Why do you think the window is 2-3 years?

Kane and Gorges have contracts that expire after 17-18 and that frees up a little over $9M.

Moulson and Ennis expire after 18-19 and that frees up another $9.6M.

The questions about the cap become clearer once Eichel and Reinhart sign extensions. But, I don't see any window closing as they have ROR, Okposo, and Risto signed long term and likely will keep Eichel and Reinhart long term, as well.

The window won't close in 2 or 3 years.

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05-09-2017, 10:10 AM
  #92
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Why do you think the window is 2-3 years?

Kane and Gorges have contracts that expire after 17-18 and that frees up a little over $9M.

Moulson and Ennis expire after 18-19 and that frees up another $9.6M.

The questions about the cap become clearer once Eichel and Reinhart sign extensions. But, I don't see any window closing as they have ROR, Okposo, and Risto signed long term and likely will keep Eichel and Reinhart long term, as well.

The window won't close in 2 or 3 years.
In three years Eichel will be at 8-10 Reinhart 5-6 Kane resigned? 5-6+ if Kane not reigned I would expect the Dman to be 5+ see where it is going? Got to win before Eichel, Reinhard and maybe Kane gets their payouts. Probably not next year but the year after that.

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05-09-2017, 10:13 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by HeartforReinheart View Post
In three years Eichel will be at 8-10 Reinhart 5-6 Kane resigned? 5-6+ if Kane not reigned I would expect the Dman to be 5+ see where it is going? Got to win before Eichel, Reinhard and maybe Kane gets their payouts. Probably not next year but the year after that.
Not really since they have guys like Bogosian that could get moved for cap space, as well.

The window is not 2-3 years.

Just look at all the cap juggling that teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh have done. This window will be open as long as the core guys play like core guys.

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05-09-2017, 10:23 AM
  #94
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There's no window closure in sight right now... when Eichel is pushing 30, and the roster is capped out with veterans/core/NMCs. then we can talk about windows closing.

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05-09-2017, 11:02 AM
  #95
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http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=2344793

Let's hope that is how the top 7 picks actually play out.

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05-09-2017, 11:27 AM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=2344793

Let's hope that is how the top 7 picks actually play out.
Mittlestadt is gone, draft is dead to me haha

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05-09-2017, 11:42 AM
  #97
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Not really since they have guys like Bogosian that could get moved for cap space, as well.

The window is not 2-3 years.

Just look at all the cap juggling that teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh have done. This window will be open as long as the core guys play like core guys.
And if rumors are true, we're about to get one of their(Pittsburgh's) best cap manager as our GM...

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05-09-2017, 01:25 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=2344793

Let's hope that is how the top 7 picks actually play out.
That would be perfect for us and I don't think it's impossible. Im sure some teams will be scared from the competition he has faced and some other teams would simply go F as BPA. He may slip. I'd be thrilled with one of him or Mittelstadt from the brief moments I've seem from each. And I think Makar is more likely to fall to 8th than Mittelstadt.

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05-09-2017, 01:39 PM
  #99
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05-09-2017, 01:44 PM
  #100
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Who the foook has him outside of top10. I would like to see who is top 10 if he isn't

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