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Habs Off-Season Discussion - Part III

View Poll Results: What does MB do to improve the C position?
Statu quo (Danault as 1C, Galchenyuk at wing or 2C) 25 23.15%
Galchenyuk as 1C, Danault as 2C 18 16.67%
Trades or signs for a 1C 37 34.26%
Trades or signs for a 2C 28 25.93%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-08-2017, 02:40 PM
  #101
KawaYui
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I just do not see many changes in the offseason. We may pull a Radulov out of free agency, but that is it. The only pieces that will be changed will be on the bottom lines. Do you think things will be different this offseason? I believe it will be the same old, same old.
Not sure how trading a number 1 defenseman and acquiring the best free agent available was a "same old, same old"

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05-08-2017, 03:26 PM
  #102
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If you get 3 years of low draft picks + the 1st rounders you acquire in trade that should be the end of the rebuild. Of course, if your team isn't very good, especially on defense and in goal (get a good goalie like Toronto did at the end of the rebuild) it may take longer to climb out of the cellar. It's almost like you should have your defensive prospects positions filled for the most part before doing the tank, like Chicago did and then draft a couple of elite forwards like Kane and Toews. Even Calgary was like that, they drafted Monahan and Bennett.
Odds are very much against only needing to suck for 3 years, unless you have some diamonds in the rough in your prospect pool already. Expecting to suck for three years and end up with a Toews/Kane combo is unrealistic. You are more likely to get some good but not exceptional players like RNH, Hall, Duchene, etc... And even then you have to avoid the complete busts which still happen often.

Edmonton is the obvious example, but even a team like Colorado, they had a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall in a 5 year period, had a few years it looked like they were putting it together yet it all collapsed, now they are looking to get rid of two of those picks and rebuild again. It's easy to look at teams like Buffalo and Calgary and think they are on the right path and soon they'll be good. But chances are they'll end up like Winnipeg or Colorado or the Islanders and collapse and try to rebuild again.

The truth is, if you are bad enough to suck for an extended period of time it's actually quite difficult to get out of it. It often becomes a cycle, where you can't risk trading the new top pick for immediate help, but the losing environment and lack of veteran help makes it difficult for the pick to make a difference.

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05-08-2017, 04:01 PM
  #103
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Odds are very much against only needing to suck for 3 years, unless you have some diamonds in the rough in your prospect pool already. Expecting to suck for three years and end up with a Toews/Kane combo is unrealistic. You are more likely to get some good but not exceptional players like RNH, Hall, Duchene, etc... And even then you have to avoid the complete busts which still happen often.
Several teams having emerged from long periods of drought, have found franchise players and have won, but as you correctly point out, not every team was lucky enough to do so. And luck plays a huge part as the prospect pool and whether or not you have a generational or elite level franchise player available as an early pick to the bottom dwelling team, varies from year over year. And then you can get Yakupoved and waste a pick -- luckily for Edmonton, they had insurance in the form of several other successful early picks over the years.

Bottom line, it makes more sense to retool than rebuild -- simply because retooling is more targeted and involves holding on to certain known quantities.

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05-08-2017, 04:07 PM
  #104
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Several teams having emerged from long periods of drought, have found franchise players and have won, but as you correctly point out, not every team was lucky enough to do so. And luck plays a huge part as the prospect pool and whether or not you have a generational or elite level franchise player available as an early pick to the bottom dwelling team, varies from year over year. And then you can get Yakupoved and waste a pick -- luckily for Edmonton, they had insurance in the form of several other successful early picks over the years.

Bottom line, it makes more sense to retool than rebuild -- simply because retooling is more targeted and involves holding on to certain known quantities.
I agree. Leaping into the unknown might land you into a crater or the mouth of a crocodile.

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05-08-2017, 04:20 PM
  #105
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I agree. Leaping into the unknown might land you into a crater or the mouth of a crocodile.
Or as Molson fears, an abyss of unsold luxury boxes.

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05-08-2017, 04:54 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Odds are very much against only needing to suck for 3 years, unless you have some diamonds in the rough in your prospect pool already. Expecting to suck for three years and end up with a Toews/Kane combo is unrealistic. You are more likely to get some good but not exceptional players like RNH, Hall, Duchene, etc... And even then you have to avoid the complete busts which still happen often.

Edmonton is the obvious example, but even a team like Colorado, they had a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall in a 5 year period, had a few years it looked like they were putting it together yet it all collapsed, now they are looking to get rid of two of those picks and rebuild again. It's easy to look at teams like Buffalo and Calgary and think they are on the right path and soon they'll be good. But chances are they'll end up like Winnipeg or Colorado or the Islanders and collapse and try to rebuild again.

The truth is, if you are bad enough to suck for an extended period of time it's actually quite difficult to get out of it. It often becomes a cycle, where you can't risk trading the new top pick for immediate help, but the losing environment and lack of veteran help makes it difficult for the pick to make a difference.
Both Edmonton and Colorado had holes on defense and that's what takes a lot of time to develop which is why I put that was the most important thing to have worked on defense before doing the tank.

Besides, Chicago drafted Barker at #3 OA but then they traded him for Leddy because they thought that was a good idea.

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05-08-2017, 06:11 PM
  #107
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Acquire a cup experienced water-boy who knows when the boys are working hard and need some water.
Adam Sandler would be perfect for that role.

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05-09-2017, 09:42 AM
  #108
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Both Edmonton and Colorado had holes on defense and that's what takes a lot of time to develop which is why I put that was the most important thing to have worked on defense before doing the tank.

Besides, Chicago drafted Barker at #3 OA but then they traded him for Leddy because they thought that was a good idea.
And how do you propose getting a future Norris winner like Keith into our prospect pool before tanking?

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05-09-2017, 10:15 AM
  #109
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Kovalchuk agent confirming he wants to come back and Shero saying he's open to sign and trade as long as it makes sense to Devils.

Hmm, wonder what team is in desperate need of a big, talented forward who can score?

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05-09-2017, 10:58 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by shutehinside View Post
Kovalchuk agent confirming he wants to come back and Shero saying he's open to sign and trade as long as it makes sense to Devils.

Hmm, wonder what team is in desperate need of a big, talented forward who can score?
Definitely wouldn't mind Kovalchuk but we need a center way more than another winger!

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05-09-2017, 11:17 AM
  #111
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Bringing in Kovalchuk and Radulov for next season would be awesome. But I don't see it happening.

We'll probably lose Radulov

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05-09-2017, 12:09 PM
  #112
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Or as Molson fears, an abyss of unsold luxury boxes.
Make a final, or better yet win a Cup, and those crappy beers will command an even higher ransom, the waiting lists will lengthen exponentially, and the value of the team will increase like the price of oil during an OPEC contrived production shortage.

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05-09-2017, 12:17 PM
  #113
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Adam Sandler would be perfect for that role.
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
And how do you propose getting a future Norris winner like Keith into our prospect pool before tanking?
By making trades. If we trade Galchenyuk for Fowler or one of Carolina's D prospects and a pick that would be a start. Trading Price and Pacioretty should net us another young Top 4 D man plus some more prospects and picks.

We could end up with 5 1st round picks in the next 2 years and if we trade a few more players we could also end up with 8 2nd round picks over the next 3 years.

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05-09-2017, 12:30 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Frozenice View Post
By making trades. If we trade Galchenyuk for Fowler or one of Carolina's D prospects and a pick that would be a start. Trading Price and Pacioretty should net us another young Top 4 D man plus some more prospects and picks.

We could end up with 5 1st round picks in the next 2 years and if we trade a few more players we could also end up with 8 2nd round picks over the next 3 years.
Galchenyuk for Fowler is a terrible trade. Fowler is soon to be UFA and Galchenyuk is a RFA.

Let me ask you this... how often do RFA's force arbitration and become UFA after the minimal years of service in the CBA? Then ask yourself how often to potential UFA actually become UFA's?

Also, Why are we trading for defenseman? We need offensive forwards and top 2 centers!

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05-09-2017, 12:41 PM
  #115
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Definitely wouldn't mind Kovalchuk but we need a center way more than another winger!
A centre and a top 4 LD. That's the 3 things we desperately need. One piece at a time

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05-09-2017, 01:09 PM
  #116
Belial
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A centre and a top 4 LD. That's the 3 things we desperately need. One piece at a time
Seriously I think we can deal with the D we already have. Of course, an upgrade on the left side would be nice but a damn center that can pass the puck is just vital!

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05-09-2017, 01:17 PM
  #117
Sorinth
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Originally Posted by Frozenice View Post
By making trades. If we trade Galchenyuk for Fowler or one of Carolina's D prospects and a pick that would be a start. Trading Price and Pacioretty should net us another young Top 4 D man plus some more prospects and picks.

We could end up with 5 1st round picks in the next 2 years and if we trade a few more players we could also end up with 8 2nd round picks over the next 3 years.
The 1st round picks won't amount to much since they will be late picks, just look at our history of 1st round picks, a few very good players, a few average and a bunch of nobodies. So I think you are very much relying on hitting lots of homeruns at the draft, which just isn't likely.

Look at Buffalo, from 2012 to 2015 (The 3 year supposed rebuild) they had 6 first round picks including two 2nd overalls, and 8 2nd round picks. They certainly added some really good players but they are still far from being a contender. You can't build a team around only a few good players unless those players are generational level players which is mostly comes down to luck (You have to be bad in the right year and even then you still need a lot of lottery luck).

Also acquiring a guy like Fowler who will be closing in on 30 by the time you are "ready" seems like a recipe for failure. There's a pretty big risk that he will start to regress, and he's also not really comparable to guys like Keith, Doughty, etc... anyways. Having a few good fwds, and a few good D is a good starting place, but it's not any better then what we had when Bergevin took over. If anything it's much worse.

You are also ignoring the fact that Chicago didn't do it through drafting alone, it was the Hossa signing that really put them over the top, and arguably the Sharp trade as well. We've needed those kinds of signings/trades for 5 years now and have come up empty. So unless we get a new GM it's not likely a rebuild will actually help. We'll be in the same boat as we've been in the past 5 years, needing 1-2 quality players that the GM simply can't acquire because trades are hard, signings are hard, drafting is hard, being a GM is hard, ...

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05-09-2017, 01:25 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Belial View Post
Definitely wouldn't mind Kovalchuk but we need a center way more than another winger!
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Seriously I think we can deal with the D we already have. Of course, an upgrade on the left side would be nice but a damn center that can pass the puck is just vital!
Maybe but Sergachev is still green and an unknown. I'd definitely prioritize scoring but if we can add a top 4 and shed Beau and Emelin, I'd do it in a second.

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05-09-2017, 01:39 PM
  #119
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Complete fantasy here, don't judge me too hard.

I would package Chucky to get Duchene, go after Kovalchuk, sign Hanzal on the UFA market, make a deal for Vegas to pick Plekasex.

Pacioretty-Duchene-Gallagher
Kovalchuk-Hanzal-Radulov
Lehkonen-Danault-Shaw
Byron-BigMac-Mitchell

Hudon, DLR

I liked Lehkonen on his off side and depending on the training camp I would try:

Hudon-Danault-Lehkonen
Byron-Mitchell/BigMac-Shaw

DLR


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05-09-2017, 01:41 PM
  #120
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Make a final, or better yet win a Cup, and those crappy beers will command an even higher ransom, the waiting lists will lengthen exponentially, and the value of the team will increase like the price of oil during an OPEC contrived production shortage.
Thing is, the value of the team is on the rise and that's without making it to a final.

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05-09-2017, 01:47 PM
  #121
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Definitely wouldn't mind Kovalchuk but we need a center way more than another winger!
No doubt. We got maybe the best UFA on the market last year and still lost early
We need centres. Not wingers

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05-09-2017, 01:50 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
The 1st round picks won't amount to much since they will be late picks, just look at our history of 1st round picks, a few very good players, a few average and a bunch of nobodies. So I think you are very much relying on hitting lots of homeruns at the draft, which just isn't likely.

Look at Buffalo, from 2012 to 2015 (The 3 year supposed rebuild) they had 6 first round picks including two 2nd overalls, and 8 2nd round picks. They certainly added some really good players but they are still far from being a contender. You can't build a team around only a few good players unless those players are generational level players which is mostly comes down to luck (You have to be bad in the right year and even then you still need a lot of lottery luck).

Also acquiring a guy like Fowler who will be closing in on 30 by the time you are "ready" seems like a recipe for failure. There's a pretty big risk that he will start to regress, and he's also not really comparable to guys like Keith, Doughty, etc... anyways. Having a few good fwds, and a few good D is a good starting place, but it's not any better then what we had when Bergevin took over. If anything it's much worse.

You are also ignoring the fact that Chicago didn't do it through drafting alone, it was the Hossa signing that really put them over the top, and arguably the Sharp trade as well. We've needed those kinds of signings/trades for 5 years now and have come up empty. So unless we get a new GM it's not likely a rebuild will actually help. We'll be in the same boat as we've been in the past 5 years, needing 1-2 quality players that the GM simply can't acquire because trades are hard, signings are hard, drafting is hard, being a GM is hard, ...
It may take longer to arrive at our destination then was promised in the brochure but what other options do we have? Play out our hand for the next 2 or 3 years and see how things look then?

One thing I'm a fan of and that is getting 4 or 5 good young d men and have them grow up together as a unit. You can always have the extra piece or two from outside but a developed d core just has a more integrity as a unit.

As far as MB goes, I wonder how much say he really has in the direction the team takes and maybe getting a real GM will only happen if the Molson agrees to allow full autonomy to the GM's position.

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05-09-2017, 01:58 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Frozenice View Post
It may take longer to arrive at our destination then was promised in the brochure but what other options do we have? Play out our hand for the next 2 or 3 years and see how things look then?

One thing I'm a fan of and that is getting 4 or 5 good young d men and have them grow up together as a unit. You can always have the extra piece or two from outside but a developed d core just has a more integrity as a unit.

As far as MB goes, I wonder how much say he really has in the direction the team takes and maybe getting a real GM will only happen if the Molson agrees to allow full autonomy to the GM's position.
Go all in and acquire some of the elite players that actually are available by trading away top picks/prospects.

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05-09-2017, 02:42 PM
  #124
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Go all in and acquire some of the elite players that actually are available by trading away top picks/prospects.
Even if we went all in I wonder if Las Vegas would give the Habs Stanley Cup odds as one of the Top 5 teams. If you look at Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Nashville, Anaheim and a few others, I think we'd still be on the outside looking in as far as being a Cup favourite.

If we got Malkin and a Top pairing LD, I'd look at the world a whole lot different but until then I'll remain a skeptic. If we could get Reinhart and Edler, maybe then we could do some damage in the playoffs but eventually we'd hit the wall and stop.

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05-09-2017, 02:58 PM
  #125
Habs Icing
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Kovalchuk agent confirming he wants to come back and Shero saying he's open to sign and trade as long as it makes sense to Devils.

Hmm, wonder what team is in desperate need of a big, talented forward who can score?
Vancouver? Arizona? Boston? That's about it.

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