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IB's Estimate of Team Cap Numbers

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Old
03-01-2006, 12:58 PM
  #51
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so IB, for example if the avs acquire tkachuk and jokinen (just for number purposes) there remaining cap hit would be about 2.8M rughly, know you have it stated the avs have 1.3M in cap space, and konowalchuk injury would have given us 1.5M if we used it. now since we didnt use it right away have we lost a portion of it, or was it there for the remainder of the season? if the avs go over the cap by 1.5M after the deadline will that count towards kono cap space?

great work, poses lots of interesting question leading up to the deadline

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03-01-2006, 01:06 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues
Todd Bertuzzi - listed at $5,269,080 by the NHLPA, his cap number is $5,269,333.
Matt Cooke - listed at $1.5M by the NHLPA, his cap number is $1,508,333.
Dan Cloutier - listed at $2.45M by the NHLPA, his cap number is $2.5M.


But you still have to count Cloutier and everyone else who's injured - not just those on the active roster who aren't injured.

For the 5th time: it's an estimate. If someone has accurate numbers from the NHL, I'll be happy to change my numbers to reflect the accurate ones.

P.S. - found the error, I'll fix shortly.
I realize that Cloutier is counted... when I counted the cap, I counted all injured players including Jovo and Cloutier... for their full annual salary... that was the cap $$ going into the season with a full roster.

I'm also not really concerned about being off by $50K or so... the cap numbers and the salaries for this year are pretty much the same through the roster... if it's $58K apart, I didn't count it because it was a small amount.

I also realize those are your estimates... I don't have accurate numbers from the team... all I have is Nonis saying - several times at that - the team has $2-3mill in cap space. I'm as interested as anyone else to figure out exactly how he got those figures from our roster, but without a CBA to use as a guideline, it's impossible for me to figure it out, as I don't obviously have the same information as the team is using.

But we do know that Nonis is going into the deadline thinking he has over $2mill in space to add. From what I can add up though from our salaries and cap, that would seem impossible, unless there are other injury reliefs or a different way of calculating it, that I'm not aware of.

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03-01-2006, 01:21 PM
  #53
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when you calculate the cap hit do you use current year salaries or average salaries over the life of the contract(the actual cap hit)?

As an Islanders fan i know Yashin makes 7.6 million this year but the average of his salary over the life the contract is closer to 7 million(personally i rather have that actual 7.6 count towards the cap this year since it will help us in future years, but i am positive in terms of cap room he only counts for the average). Gonchar would be another example, he makes 3.5 million this year, but over the life of the contract he averages 5 million so i beleive the cap hit is 5 million.

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03-01-2006, 01:26 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale
when you calculate the cap hit do you use current year salaries or average salaries over the life of the contract(the actual cap hit)?

As an Islanders fan i know Yashin makes 7.6 million this year but the average of his salary over the life the contract is closer to 7 million(personally i rather have that actual 7.6 count towards the cap this year since it will help us in future years, but i am positive in terms of cap room he only counts for the average). Gonchar would be another example, he makes 3.5 million this year, but over the life of the contract he averages 5 million so i beleive the cap hit is 5 million.

It is the average of the contract......but for long term contracts signed before this season it is only the average from 2005 on. The portion of the contract paid before the new CBA went in to effect would not count in the average.

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03-01-2006, 01:35 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongebob
It is the average of the contract......but for long term contracts signed before this season it is only the average from 2005 on. The portion of the contract paid before the new CBA went in to effect would not count in the average.
In Yashin's case he signed a wierd contract that peaked int he middle years of the deal. So the first 3 and last 3 years of the deal are less then the middle 4. I am just counting the last 6 years, but he does make 7.6 million this year(and the next 2 i believe) then the deal pays him less for the final 3 which averages out to 7 million a season.

Most cap projections i have seen of the Islanders this year count Yashin as 7.6 towards are cap.

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03-01-2006, 01:42 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DRL
so IB, for example if the avs acquire tkachuk and jokinen (just for number purposes) there remaining cap hit would be about 2.8M rughly, know you have it stated the avs have 1.3M in cap space, and konowalchuk injury would have given us 1.5M if we used it. now since we didnt use it right away have we lost a portion of it, or was it there for the remainder of the season? if the avs go over the cap by 1.5M after the deadline will that count towards kono cap space?

great work, poses lots of interesting question leading up to the deadline
As far as I understand it (and IB feel free to chime in here) is that the Avs get no cap relief for Konowalchuk as long as they are under the cap, but once they hit the cap they will get cap relief from that point on - ie if they make a trade today that takes them to the cap, they get no cap exemption on Konowalchuk's salary from the IR date to now, but they would be allowed to exceed the cap up to Kono's salary due for the remainder of the season.

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03-01-2006, 01:43 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale
In Yashin's case he signed a wierd contract that peaked int he middle years of the deal. So the first 3 and last 3 years of the deal are less then the middle 4. I am just counting the last 6 years, but he does make 7.6 million this year(and the next 2 i believe) then the deal pays him less for the final 3 which averages out to 7 million a season.

Most cap projections i have seen of the Islanders this year count Yashin as 7.6 towards are cap.

Well to truly get an accurate cap hit for Yashin you would have to have his actual salary figures for the last 6 years of his contract. I am not sure if they are available. If so then could you post it?

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03-01-2006, 01:44 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdb209
As far as I understand it (and IB feel free to chime in here) is that the Avs get no cap relief for Konowalchuk as long as they are under the cap, but once they hit the cap they will get cap relief from that point on - ie if they make a trade today that takes them to the cap, they get no cap exemption on Konowalchuk's salary from the IR date to now, but they would be allowed to exceed the cap up to Kono's salary due for the remainder of the season.

That is the way I would see it.

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03-01-2006, 02:04 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongebob
Well to truly get an accurate cap hit for Yashin you would have to have his actual salary figures for the last 6 years of his contract. I am not sure if they are available. If so then could you post it?
Unfortuntly it's not, i looked

but her it goes from what we know

He signed a 10 year deal for roughly 88 million(weather he was given a signing bonus or not i don't know but if he was i assume that wouldn't count against the cap, every 600k he was given in a signing bonus would mean 100K less in cap hit now, but let's assume no signing bonus).

2002 he made 6,549,944
2003 he made 7,400,000
2004 he made 8,400,000
2005 he would have made 10,000,000

So coming into this season 32.35 of his salary was paid off. Meaning he is still owed 55.65 million. After the 24% reduction that equals 42.3 million.

Divid 42.3 million by 6 years you get 7.05 million a season average.

I have also seen reports stating he signed for 89.9(which would mean an extra 240k cap hit), but my hopes is the reports of 88 million are corect and the Islander gave him a sweet signing bonus(3 million+)


Last edited by boredmale: 03-01-2006 at 02:11 PM.
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03-01-2006, 02:14 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale
Unfortuntly it's not, i looked

but her it goes from what we know

He signed a 10 year deal for roughly 88 million(weather he was given a signing bonus or not i don't know but if he was i assume that wouldn't count against the cap, every 600k he was given in a signing bonus would mean 100K less in cap hit now, but let's assume no signing bonus).

2002 he made 6,549,944
2003 he made 7,400,000
2004 he made 8,400,000
2005 he would have made 10,000,000

So coming into this season 32.35 of his salary was paid off. Meaning he is still owed 55.65 million. After the 24% reduction that equals 42.3 million.

Divid 42.3 million by 6 years you get 7.05 million a season average.

I have also seen reports stating he signed for 89.9(which would mean an extra 240k cap hit), but my hopes is the reports of 88 million are corect and the Islander gave him a sweet signing bonus(3 million+)

If your numbers are correct (and I am assuming they are) then the $7.05 figure should be Yashin's cap hit. Also you are correct about the signing bonus not counting in the figure since it was paid at the beginning of the contract.

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03-01-2006, 02:18 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongebob
If your numbers are correct (and I am assuming they are) then the $7.05 figure should be Yashin's cap hit. Also you are correct about the signing bonus not counting in the figure since it was paid at the beginning of the contract.
Unfortuntly i don't think there was a signing bonus, but no verification on that. And like i said he signed for 88-89.9 million so the actual cap hit at worse is 7.3 million(if the 89.9 million is correct). The figures i have for his salary for the first 4 years are the only things i am 100% certain on.

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03-01-2006, 02:31 PM
  #62
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Yes, I'm using average salaries where I can verify them. No, I know Yashin isn't at $7.6M but he's allegedly not at $7.03M either. Supposedly he's something like $7.415M but I can't find anything to get me to that number so I'm going with the higher number for the time being. The only way I could reconcile Yashin is if someone has a legitimate source saying his contract was for almost $91 million and/or the remaining about due after the rollback was $44.49 million - but I've seen nothing to indicate that after signing bonuses, other incentives, whatever that his contract is that much either then or now.

For players making their NHL debuts this season (and there's been a bunch), I'm stuck with the salary reported by the NHLPA unless I can somehow find the actual contract details (which has been rare); if those players have bonuses attached, then their numbers would be higher. So in the absence of solid proof that a given player's average salary for his contract is different from what he's making this year, I'm going with the reported salary.

DRL - Colorado could add Jokinen without a problem (his remaining cap hit is $625,000) but to add Tkachuk (remaining cap hit is $1,425,000) the Avs would have to send salary the other way to stay under.

kdb209 - you're correct on Konowalchuk.

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03-01-2006, 02:49 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues
Yes, I'm using average salaries where I can verify them. No, I know Yashin isn't at $7.6M but he's allegedly not at $7.03M either. Supposedly he's something like $7.415M but I can't find anything to get me to that number so I'm going with the higher number for the time being.
Exhibit 2 and 3 of the Dec. 9 '04 NHLPA CBA proposal showed very specific 24% rollbacks for every player for the remainder of their contract. They showed Yashin at 7.6 million for 04/05, 05/06, 06/07, 07/08. Then 6.384 million for 08/09, and 4.864 million for 09/10.

Seems very specific to me.

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03-01-2006, 02:56 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PecaFan
Exhibit 2 and 3 of the Dec. 9 '04 NHLPA CBA proposal showed very specific 24% rollbacks for every player for the remainder of their contract. They showed Yashin at 7.6 million for 04/05, 05/06, 06/07, 07/08. Then 6.384 million for 08/09, and 4.864 million for 09/10.

Seems very specific to me.
That adds up to $41,648,000 and averages to $6,941,333. That's less than everyone else has indicated - not that it would be wrong, it's just lower than what even I had figured. But if you add the other years up and figure no rollback, it *would* get to $87,149,944 for the value of the contract.

(deleted - I found the exhibit file)


Last edited by Irish Blues: 03-01-2006 at 03:03 PM.
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03-01-2006, 03:30 PM
  #65
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so basically they wasted a 1m than, i wonder why lacroix didnt replace him right away, i guess we also will get about .3m from ossi's injury.

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03-01-2006, 03:39 PM
  #66
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IB...great work.

One question...do you have any updated info on the status of team's needing below a certain number to receive full revenue sharing....

For instance....the Predators intially said that they couldn't exceed $28.6 mill in order to receive "full revenue sharing," then in December I believe, came out and stated that the number no longer has any relevance.

What is the current status on revenue sharing and salary numbers?

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03-01-2006, 03:41 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DRL
so basically they wasted a 1m than, i wonder why lacroix didnt replace him right away, i guess we also will get about .3m from ossi's injury.
DRL, how do you figure they lost 1 million? They will get the full difference in terms of games played. They had to replace Kono with someone, so that persons salary counts against the cap. So whatever the difference was between when Kono went out, less the call up is what the Avs have available. I also pointed out earlier that every salary figure around does not factor the adjustments made by declining Sakic and Blakes options 9there was a reason those contract options were declined when they were). Most around the Avs orgainzation, (and it has been documented in the Denver post and other areas), believe the Avs have at minimum 2+ million to work with at the the deadline.

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03-01-2006, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Melrose'sMullet
DRL, how do you figure they lost 1 million? They will get the full difference in terms of games played. They had to replace Kono with someone, so that persons salary counts against the cap. So whatever the difference was between when Kono went out, less the call up is what the Avs have available. I also pointed out earlier that every salary figure around does not factor the adjustments made by declining Sakic and Blakes options 9there was a reason those contract options were declined when they were). Most around the Avs orgainzation, (and it has been documented in the Denver post and other areas), believe the Avs have at minimum 2+ million to work with at the the deadline.

" ie if they make a trade today that takes them to the cap, they get no cap exemption on Konowalchuk's salary from the IR date to now, but they would be allowed to exceed the cap up to Kono's salary due for the remainder of the season."

ok, i hope im reading this right, basically he's saying if the avs add tkachuk and jokinen for 2.8m or whatever, we'll go over our cap number which IB has at 1.3M (whether its accurate or not) by 1.5m, but as the above poster says we only get cap relief of kono's salary which is still due about .5M, so the other 1m we never will get to use cuz lacroix never went over the cap for that portion of kono salary.

so if we had of added say a player x at 1.5M after kono's injury we would have got full cap relief of the 1.5M. but since he never acquired anyone we'll only get .5m extra over the cap.

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03-01-2006, 03:54 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues
That adds up to $41,648,000 and averages to $6,941,333. That's less than everyone else has indicated - not that it would be wrong, it's just lower than what even I had figured. But if you add the other years up and figure no rollback, it *would* get to $87,149,944 for the value of the contract.
I read his contract was 88 or 89.9 million. If what Peca said is true then my guess is there was a signing bonus. But that good news because worse case would have been 7.3 million. I went under the assumption that it was 88(with no signing bonus and it was 7.05). I can now safely tell people Yashin's cap hit is not even 7 million.


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03-01-2006, 04:10 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdb209
As far as I understand it (and IB feel free to chime in here) is that the Avs get no cap relief for Konowalchuk as long as they are under the cap, but once they hit the cap they will get cap relief from that point on - ie if they make a trade today that takes them to the cap, they get no cap exemption on Konowalchuk's salary from the IR date to now, but they would be allowed to exceed the cap up to Kono's salary due for the remainder of the season.
You're bang on. You only get injury relief when you spend up to the cap. A team has to be at 39 million dollars before they start getting relief for long term injuries. For example. The Devils were well over the salary cap when Elias was out. They were allowed to exceed the cap because they were already at 39 million without counting Elias's salary, and it was a long term injury (in this case illness). When he came back. The club had to demote Dan McGillis and Alex Mogilny and cut (errr...he retired) Vladimir Malakhov.

Another Example:
Martin Havlat has been out since late November with a dislocated shoulder. His salary has been counting against the cap ever since because the sens payroll is still well below 39 million. That's where this new cba sucks. If you a good team with a reasonable payroll the only way to dig yourself out of injury trouble is to spend all the way to cap. Most teams in the league can't really afford to do that. If that were the case, every team would start the season with a 39 million dollar payroll.

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03-01-2006, 04:45 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale
I read his contract was 88 or 89.9 million. If what Peca said is true then my guess is there was a signing bonus. But that good news because worse case would have been 7.3 million. I went under the assumption that it was 88(with no signing bonus and it was 7.05). I can now safely tell people Yashin's cap hit is not even 7 million.
Unless Yashin has the dreaded "signing bonus to be paid over X number of years" clause, in which case I'd assume the part of the signing bonus not paid when the lockout ended would count. Of course, that's one of those details that's somewhere in the new CBA that none of us have seen so my guess here is as good as anyone else's.

ADD: In response to Melrose'sMullet's question: yes, the numbers for Sakic and Blake do indeed reflect the fact that the options for '06-07 were declined on both players. The only question that really stands to be answered on Colorado is how the injury allowance is calculated now for players who were injured way back when - does the team get to take full credit, or do they only get the pro-rated part? I am working on the assumption that they only get the pro-rated part; if they get full credit, then Colorado's numbers would obviously look better.

Again, that's a detail buried in the new CBA that none of us have seen.


Last edited by Irish Blues: 03-01-2006 at 05:05 PM.
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03-01-2006, 05:00 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues
Unless Yashin has the dreaded "signing bonus to be paid over X number of years" clause, in which case I'd assume the part of the signing bonus not paid when the lockout ended would count. Of course, that's one of those details that's somewhere in the new CBA that none of us have seen so my guess here is as good as anyone else's.
I think Alan Hahn(NY Islanders newpapper writer) said he had 42 million left on his contract at the beginning of the season. But he is not the most reliable source

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03-01-2006, 05:50 PM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdb209
As far as I understand it (and IB feel free to chime in here) is that the Avs get no cap relief for Konowalchuk as long as they are under the cap, but once they hit the cap they will get cap relief from that point on - ie if they make a trade today that takes them to the cap, they get no cap exemption on Konowalchuk's salary from the IR date to now, but they would be allowed to exceed the cap up to Kono's salary due for the remainder of the season.
That's probably what is confusing people. Saying they don't get cap relief because they are currently under it. What good is cap relief if you are under it in the first place. It's just a confusing way of saying they can still go over it, they just haven't done it yet.

Also, the fact that they save less and less with Kono's salary doesn't matter, since the replacement player's salary is less and less as time goes on too. It all evens out in the end.

According to the CBA faq, "Clubs at or near the upper limit that have players who incur a bona fide long-term injury will be entitled to replace up to the full value of the injured player's NHL salary (even if such salary would result in the club's team salary exceeding the upper limit)."

So that to me, means they can basically wipe out both Konowalchuk's, and Vaananen's salary from when they stoped playing, and get to replace those players salaries even if it means they go over the cap. Cap relief and injury relief are two different things. Colorado gets a little over $2 mil in injury relief since they can replace those player's salaries, but probably only get to go a few hundred thousand over the cap, since they were already around $1.5 mil under the cap.


Last edited by Foppa2118: 03-01-2006 at 06:36 PM.
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03-02-2006, 05:33 AM
  #74
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Numbers updated for March 2. Accounted for a few roster moves I didn't have (I'm assuming Pat Kavanagh and Alexandre Picard were both sent down by the Flyers on February 12) and updated some player numbers based on PecaFan's mention of the exhibit from the NHLPA (which isn't entirely correct because I found a few errors) but did help in other places.

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03-02-2006, 03:59 PM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
IB...great work.

One question...do you have any updated info on the status of team's needing below a certain number to receive full revenue sharing....

For instance....the Predators intially said that they couldn't exceed $28.6 mill in order to receive "full revenue sharing," then in December I believe, came out and stated that the number no longer has any relevance.

What is the current status on revenue sharing and salary numbers?
The only definitive detailed info I've seen on Revenue Sharing was from an article in the Sports Business Journal before the season. There is a sticky thread on the BOH board with a summary - the article was only available to paying subscribers.

http://www.hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=162356

Quote:
Each year the league sets a payroll midpoint, equaling 54% of the avg. club's revenue
...
Clubs start with 54% of their own revenues for payroll, and revenue sharing makes up the difference.
...
There are two batches of revenue sharing:
First batch - equal to 4.5% of league revenues (estimated to be $78 mill. this season); this batch aims to allow clubs to afford payrolls of $4 mill. below the midpoint; it is funded by league media revenue, playoff gate receipts, escrow funds, and top-grossing clubs

Second batch - designed to help clubs get to the midpoint but not over it; funded by excess escrow funds, if available

...

Rules:

Any club in the bottom half of revenues is eligible for the first batch (regardless of payroll amount)
Any club spending over the midpoint on player salaries is not eligible for the second batch
Clubs in markets with more than 2.5 mill. TV households are ineligible for revenue sharing
By the third year of the deal, clubs will have to grow revenues faster than the league avg. and have attendance of 75% of capacity to be eligible for their full revenue-sharing allotment
By the fourth year, the required attendace capacity increases to 80%


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