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Rangers Not Only Ones Drafting Poorly - Review of all draft in the 1990s

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02-28-2006, 06:22 PM
  #1
Hfbk2006
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Rangers Not Only Ones Drafting Poorly - Review of all draft in the 1990s

Ok, I know I am harping on this, but many people argyed that late first round picks are very valuable and cannot be given up if Sather gets a chance to significantly improve the team for a playoff run. Here're the picks in the 20-25 range over a dozen years from 1991 to 2002:

SCORECARD: Two players, Bertuzzi and Gagne are stars. Another 9 are good players, maybe you can call some of them impact players - they are solid 2-3 liners. Another 11 are NHL regulars, but aren't key players on a team.

But of the 72 people drafted between 20 and 25 from 1991 to 2002, 50 are either borderline NHLers or even minor leaguers.

So we see that about 70% of picks in the range NYR will likely fall turn into nothing. More likely than not, NYR pick will be something like Hossa or Orr. No, not Marian and Bobby, rather Marcel and Colton.



1991: 3 NHL regulars, 1 borderline, 2 minor leaguers. Nobody better than a second liner.

20 Edmonton Martin Rucinsky L Litvinov CHP HC (Czech) GP: 817 G: 208 A: 300 Pts: 508 PIM 677
21 Washington Trevor Halverson L North Bay Centennials (OHL) 17 0 4 4 28
22 Chicago Dean McAmmond L Prince Albert Raiders (WHL) 645 135 192 327 354
23 San Jose Ray Whitney L Spokane Chiefs (WHL) 700 205 330 535 219
24 Quebec Rene Corbet L Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 362 58 74 132 420
25 Washington Eric Lavigne D Hull Olympiques (QMJHL) 1 0 0 0 0


1992: 5 minor leaguers, 1 NHL Marshall is a third liner.

20 Mtl. Canadiens David Wilkie D Kamloops Blazers (WHL) 167 10 26 36 165
21 Vancouver Libor Polasek C Vitkovice SSK (Czech)
22 Detroit Curtis Bowen L Ottawa 67's (OHL)
23 Toronto Grant Marshall R Ottawa 67's (OHL) 624 84 130 214 723
24 NY Rangers Peter Ferraro R Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL) 92 9 15 24 58
25 Ottawa Chad Penney L North Bay Centennials (OHL) 3 0 0 0 2


1993: 2 good players in Bertuzzi and Koivu. 3 ok players and a minor leaguer.

20 Vancouver Mike Wilson D Sudbury Wolves (OHL) 336 16 41 57 264
21 Mtl. Canadiens Saku Koivu C TPS Turku (FNL) 497 120 278 398 342
22 Detroit Anders Eriksson D Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik (SEL) 412 21 109 130 158
23 NY Islanders Todd Bertuzzi L Guelph Storm (OHL) 628 198 260 458 911
24 Chicago Eric Lecompte L Hull Olympiques (QMJHL)
25 Boston Kevyn Adams C Miami University (Ohio) (NCAA) 363 41 58 99 243


1994: Everyone is a minor leaguer

20 Dallas Jason Botterill L U. of Michigan (NCAA) 88 5 9 14 89
21 Boston Evgeni Ryabchikov G Molot Perm (Russia)
22 Quebec Jeff Kealty D Catholic Memorial H.S. (Mass.)
23 Detroit Yan Golubovsky D CSKA Moscow (Russia) 56 1 7 8 32
24 Pittsburgh Chris Wells C Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 195 9 20 29 193
25 New Jersey Vadim Sharifijanov L Ufa Salavat (Russia) 92 16 21 37 50


1995: 5 NHLers, 1 minor leaguer

20 Calgary Denis Gauthier D Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 384 13 45 58 515
21 Boston Sean Brown D Belleville Bulls (OHL) 389 13 32 45 872
22 Philadelphia Brian Boucher G Tri-City Americans (WHL) 188 0 2 2 12
23 Washington Miika Elomo L Kiekko-67 Turku (FinD1) 2 0 1 1 2
24 Pittsburgh Alexei Morozov R Krylja Sovetov (Russia) 451 84 135 219 98
25 Colorado Marc Denis G Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) 245 0 5 5 26


1996: 3 NHLers, non indispensable

20 Florida Marcus Nilson R Djurgardens IF Stockholm (SEL) 341 53 78 131 207
21 San Jose Marco Sturm C Landshut EV (DEL) 530 122 135 257 226
22 NY Rangers Jeff Brown D Sarnia Sting (OHL)
23 Pittsburgh Craig Hillier G Ottawa 67's (OHL)
24 Phoenix Daniel Briere C Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 354 105 118 223 228
25 Colorado Peter Ratchuk D Shattuck St. Mary's [Minn H.S.] 32 1 1 2 10


1997: 2 NHLers, non indispensable

20 Florida Mike Brown W Red Deer Rebels (WHL) 32 1 1 2 121
21 Buffalo Mika Noronen G Tappara Tampere (FNL) 63 1 0 1 2
22 Carolina Nikos Tselios D Belleville Bulls (OHL) 2 0 0 0 6
23 San Jose Scott Hannan D Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 348 15 64 79 233
24 New Jersey Jean-Francois Damphous G Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) 6 0 0 0 0
25 Dallas Brenden Morrow L Portland Winter Hawks (WHL) 370 97 107 204 573


1998: Gagne is a star, and another 4 ok players. One minor leaguer.

20 Colorado Scott Parker R Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 252 5 13 18 563
21 Los Angeles Mathieu Biron D Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) 201 8 23 31 127
22 Philadelphia Simon Gagne C Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 354 113 132 245 117
23 Pittsburgh Milan Kraft C Keramika Plzen (Czech.) 207 41 41 82 52
24 St. Louis Christian Backman D Vastra Frolunda (Sweden) 70 5 13 18 16
25 Detroit Jiri Fischer D Hull Olympiques (QMJHL) 283 8 44 52 262


1999: Nobody I'd really die to get on my team. Boynton is the only solid player.

20 Buffalo Barrett Heisten W U. of Maine (NCAA) 10 0 0 0 2
21 Boston Nick Boynton D Ottawa 67's (OHL) 245 17 55 72 304
22 Philadelphia Maxime Ouellet G Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 8 0 1 1 0
23 Chicago Steve McCarthy D Kootenay Ice (WHL) 134 3 13 16 45
24 Toronto Luca Cereda C Ambri-Piotta (SwissA)
25 Colorado Mikhail Kuleshov L Cherepovets Severstal (Russia) 3 0 0 0 0


2000: Frolov is a good player, but that's it.

20 Los Angeles Alexander Frolov L Yaroslavl Torpedo (Russia) 156 38 41 79 58
21 Ottawa Anton Volchenkov D CSKA Jr. (Russia) 76 4 15 19 48
22 New Jersey David Hale D Sioux-City Musketeers (USHL) 65 0 4 4 72
23 Vancouver Nathan Smith C Swift Current Broncos (WHL) 2 0 0 0 0
24 Toronto Brad Boyes C Erie Otters (OHL) 1 0 0 0 2
25 Dallas Steve Ott C Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 99 5 14 19 183


2001: Gleason looks good, but isn't gonna be a superstar. Nobody else has done much.

20 San Jose Marcel Goc C Schwenningen Wild Wings (DEL)
21 Pittsburgh Colby Armstrong W Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
22 Buffalo Jiri Novotny C Ceske Budejovice HC (Czech)
23 Ottawa Tim Gleason D Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 47 0 7 7 21
24 Florida Lukas Krajicek D Peterborough Petes (OHL) 23 1 6 7 12
25 Mtl. Canadiens Alexander Perezhogin R Omsk Avangard (Russia)


2002: Nobody yet.

Chicago Anton Babchuk D Elemash Elektrostal (Russia) 5 0 2 2 2
22 NY Islanders Sean Bergenheim L Jokerit Helsinki (FNL) 18 1 1 2 4
23 Phoenix Ben Eager L Oshawa Generals (OHL)
24 Toronto Alexander Steen C Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg (SEL)
25 Carolina Cam Ward G Red Deer Rebels (WHL)

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02-28-2006, 06:24 PM
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wow... u feeling a little bored today?

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02-28-2006, 06:26 PM
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Hfbk2006
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My point is that just like in baseball, if you have a chance to walk, you walk rather than swinging the bat. This is especially true when the walk can put you in scoring position. Trying to hit a homer may be more exciting, and sometimes may yield good results.

But proper managing techinique says you take a guaranteed walk if you can get one because even the best player is successful only 30% (.300) of the time when he decides to swing the bat.

If to get a solid player who can fit in well with the Rangers and gets them a step closer to the Cup, Sather needs to give up a #1, so be it. Get a walk, put the team in scoring position!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hfbk2006
Ok, I know I am harping on this, but many people argyed that late first round picks are very valuable and cannot be given up if Sather gets a chance to significantly improve the team for a playoff run. Here're the picks in the 20-25 range over a dozen years from 1991 to 2002:

SCORECARD: Two players, Bertuzzi and Gagne are stars. Another 9 are good players, maybe you can call some of them impact players - they are solid 2-3 liners. Another 11 are NHL regulars, but aren't key players on a team.

But of the 72 people drafted between 20 and 25 from 1991 to 2002, 50 are either borderline NHLers or even minor leaguers.

So we see that about 70% of picks in the range NYR will likely fall turn into nothing. More likely than not, NYR pick will be something like Hossa or Orr. No, not Marian and Bobby, rather Marcel and Colton.



1991: 3 NHL regulars, 1 borderline, 2 minor leaguers. Nobody better than a second liner.

20 Edmonton Martin Rucinsky L Litvinov CHP HC (Czech) GP: 817 G: 208 A: 300 Pts: 508 PIM 677
21 Washington Trevor Halverson L North Bay Centennials (OHL) 17 0 4 4 28
22 Chicago Dean McAmmond L Prince Albert Raiders (WHL) 645 135 192 327 354
23 San Jose Ray Whitney L Spokane Chiefs (WHL) 700 205 330 535 219
24 Quebec Rene Corbet L Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 362 58 74 132 420
25 Washington Eric Lavigne D Hull Olympiques (QMJHL) 1 0 0 0 0


1992: 5 minor leaguers, 1 NHL Marshall is a third liner.

20 Mtl. Canadiens David Wilkie D Kamloops Blazers (WHL) 167 10 26 36 165
21 Vancouver Libor Polasek C Vitkovice SSK (Czech)
22 Detroit Curtis Bowen L Ottawa 67's (OHL)
23 Toronto Grant Marshall R Ottawa 67's (OHL) 624 84 130 214 723
24 NY Rangers Peter Ferraro R Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL) 92 9 15 24 58
25 Ottawa Chad Penney L North Bay Centennials (OHL) 3 0 0 0 2


1993: 2 good players in Bertuzzi and Koivu. 3 ok players and a minor leaguer.

20 Vancouver Mike Wilson D Sudbury Wolves (OHL) 336 16 41 57 264
21 Mtl. Canadiens Saku Koivu C TPS Turku (FNL) 497 120 278 398 342
22 Detroit Anders Eriksson D Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik (SEL) 412 21 109 130 158
23 NY Islanders Todd Bertuzzi L Guelph Storm (OHL) 628 198 260 458 911
24 Chicago Eric Lecompte L Hull Olympiques (QMJHL)
25 Boston Kevyn Adams C Miami University (Ohio) (NCAA) 363 41 58 99 243


1994: Everyone is a minor leaguer

20 Dallas Jason Botterill L U. of Michigan (NCAA) 88 5 9 14 89
21 Boston Evgeni Ryabchikov G Molot Perm (Russia)
22 Quebec Jeff Kealty D Catholic Memorial H.S. (Mass.)
23 Detroit Yan Golubovsky D CSKA Moscow (Russia) 56 1 7 8 32
24 Pittsburgh Chris Wells C Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 195 9 20 29 193
25 New Jersey Vadim Sharifijanov L Ufa Salavat (Russia) 92 16 21 37 50


1995: 5 NHLers, 1 minor leaguer

20 Calgary Denis Gauthier D Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 384 13 45 58 515
21 Boston Sean Brown D Belleville Bulls (OHL) 389 13 32 45 872
22 Philadelphia Brian Boucher G Tri-City Americans (WHL) 188 0 2 2 12
23 Washington Miika Elomo L Kiekko-67 Turku (FinD1) 2 0 1 1 2
24 Pittsburgh Alexei Morozov R Krylja Sovetov (Russia) 451 84 135 219 98
25 Colorado Marc Denis G Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) 245 0 5 5 26


1996: 3 NHLers, non indispensable

20 Florida Marcus Nilson R Djurgardens IF Stockholm (SEL) 341 53 78 131 207
21 San Jose Marco Sturm C Landshut EV (DEL) 530 122 135 257 226
22 NY Rangers Jeff Brown D Sarnia Sting (OHL)
23 Pittsburgh Craig Hillier G Ottawa 67's (OHL)
24 Phoenix Daniel Briere C Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 354 105 118 223 228
25 Colorado Peter Ratchuk D Shattuck St. Mary's [Minn H.S.] 32 1 1 2 10


1997: 2 NHLers, non indispensable

20 Florida Mike Brown W Red Deer Rebels (WHL) 32 1 1 2 121
21 Buffalo Mika Noronen G Tappara Tampere (FNL) 63 1 0 1 2
22 Carolina Nikos Tselios D Belleville Bulls (OHL) 2 0 0 0 6
23 San Jose Scott Hannan D Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 348 15 64 79 233
24 New Jersey Jean-Francois Damphous G Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) 6 0 0 0 0
25 Dallas Brenden Morrow L Portland Winter Hawks (WHL) 370 97 107 204 573


1998: Gagne is a star, and another 4 ok players. One minor leaguer.

20 Colorado Scott Parker R Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 252 5 13 18 563
21 Los Angeles Mathieu Biron D Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) 201 8 23 31 127
22 Philadelphia Simon Gagne C Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 354 113 132 245 117
23 Pittsburgh Milan Kraft C Keramika Plzen (Czech.) 207 41 41 82 52
24 St. Louis Christian Backman D Vastra Frolunda (Sweden) 70 5 13 18 16
25 Detroit Jiri Fischer D Hull Olympiques (QMJHL) 283 8 44 52 262


1999: Nobody I'd really die to get on my team. Boynton is the only solid player.

20 Buffalo Barrett Heisten W U. of Maine (NCAA) 10 0 0 0 2
21 Boston Nick Boynton D Ottawa 67's (OHL) 245 17 55 72 304
22 Philadelphia Maxime Ouellet G Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 8 0 1 1 0
23 Chicago Steve McCarthy D Kootenay Ice (WHL) 134 3 13 16 45
24 Toronto Luca Cereda C Ambri-Piotta (SwissA)
25 Colorado Mikhail Kuleshov L Cherepovets Severstal (Russia) 3 0 0 0 0


2000: Frolov is a good player, but that's it.

20 Los Angeles Alexander Frolov L Yaroslavl Torpedo (Russia) 156 38 41 79 58
21 Ottawa Anton Volchenkov D CSKA Jr. (Russia) 76 4 15 19 48
22 New Jersey David Hale D Sioux-City Musketeers (USHL) 65 0 4 4 72
23 Vancouver Nathan Smith C Swift Current Broncos (WHL) 2 0 0 0 0
24 Toronto Brad Boyes C Erie Otters (OHL) 1 0 0 0 2
25 Dallas Steve Ott C Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 99 5 14 19 183


2001: Gleason looks good, but isn't gonna be a superstar. Nobody else has done much.

20 San Jose Marcel Goc C Schwenningen Wild Wings (DEL)
21 Pittsburgh Colby Armstrong W Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
22 Buffalo Jiri Novotny C Ceske Budejovice HC (Czech)
23 Ottawa Tim Gleason D Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 47 0 7 7 21
24 Florida Lukas Krajicek D Peterborough Petes (OHL) 23 1 6 7 12
25 Mtl. Canadiens Alexander Perezhogin R Omsk Avangard (Russia)


2002: Nobody yet.

Chicago Anton Babchuk D Elemash Elektrostal (Russia) 5 0 2 2 2
22 NY Islanders Sean Bergenheim L Jokerit Helsinki (FNL) 18 1 1 2 4
23 Phoenix Ben Eager L Oshawa Generals (OHL)
24 Toronto Alexander Steen C Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg (SEL)
25 Carolina Cam Ward G Red Deer Rebels (WHL)

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Old
02-28-2006, 06:28 PM
  #4
Hfbk2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dawg
wow... u feeling a little bored today?
1. Yes.
2. It was 5 minutes of cut and pasting, to be honest.

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02-28-2006, 06:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hfbk2006
1. Yes.
2. It was 5 minutes of cut and pasting, to be honest.
true, true

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02-28-2006, 06:34 PM
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volchenkov is a top 4 d-man...i think that merits a little consideration

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02-28-2006, 06:34 PM
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Quote:
2000: Frolov is a good player, but that's it.
Boyes, Hale and Volchenkov aren't good players?

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02-28-2006, 07:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nittel16
Boyes, Hale and Volchenkov aren't good players?

id take them over Poti, Rucchin

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02-28-2006, 07:45 PM
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This list is littered with NHLers (and good ones too). One of my fav omissions is Scott Hannan... he sucks? News to me. I'd trade any of our D prospects not named Staal for him.

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02-28-2006, 07:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hfbk2006
Ok, I know I am harping on this, but many people argyed that late first round picks are very valuable and cannot be given up if Sather gets a chance to significantly improve the team for a playoff run. Here're the picks in the 20-25 range over a dozen years from 1991 to 2002:

SCORECARD: Two players, Bertuzzi and Gagne are stars. Another 9 are good players, maybe you can call some of them impact players - they are solid 2-3 liners. Another 11 are NHL regulars, but aren't key players on a team.

But of the 72 people drafted between 20 and 25 from 1991 to 2002, 50 are either borderline NHLers or even minor leaguers.

So we see that about 70% of picks in the range NYR will likely fall turn into nothing. More likely than not, NYR pick will be something like Hossa or Orr. No, not Marian and Bobby, rather Marcel and Colton.



1991: 3 NHL regulars, 1 borderline, 2 minor leaguers. Nobody better than a second liner.

20 Edmonton Martin Rucinsky L Litvinov CHP HC (Czech) GP: 817 G: 208 A: 300 Pts: 508 PIM 677
21 Washington Trevor Halverson L North Bay Centennials (OHL) 17 0 4 4 28
22 Chicago Dean McAmmond L Prince Albert Raiders (WHL) 645 135 192 327 354
23 San Jose Ray Whitney L Spokane Chiefs (WHL) 700 205 330 535 219
24 Quebec Rene Corbet L Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 362 58 74 132 420
25 Washington Eric Lavigne D Hull Olympiques (QMJHL) 1 0 0 0 0


1992: 5 minor leaguers, 1 NHL Marshall is a third liner.

20 Mtl. Canadiens David Wilkie D Kamloops Blazers (WHL) 167 10 26 36 165
21 Vancouver Libor Polasek C Vitkovice SSK (Czech)
22 Detroit Curtis Bowen L Ottawa 67's (OHL)
23 Toronto Grant Marshall R Ottawa 67's (OHL) 624 84 130 214 723
24 NY Rangers Peter Ferraro R Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL) 92 9 15 24 58
25 Ottawa Chad Penney L North Bay Centennials (OHL) 3 0 0 0 2


1993: 2 good players in Bertuzzi and Koivu. 3 ok players and a minor leaguer.

20 Vancouver Mike Wilson D Sudbury Wolves (OHL) 336 16 41 57 264
21 Mtl. Canadiens Saku Koivu C TPS Turku (FNL) 497 120 278 398 342
22 Detroit Anders Eriksson D Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik (SEL) 412 21 109 130 158
23 NY Islanders Todd Bertuzzi L Guelph Storm (OHL) 628 198 260 458 911
24 Chicago Eric Lecompte L Hull Olympiques (QMJHL)
25 Boston Kevyn Adams C Miami University (Ohio) (NCAA) 363 41 58 99 243


1994: Everyone is a minor leaguer

20 Dallas Jason Botterill L U. of Michigan (NCAA) 88 5 9 14 89
21 Boston Evgeni Ryabchikov G Molot Perm (Russia)
22 Quebec Jeff Kealty D Catholic Memorial H.S. (Mass.)
23 Detroit Yan Golubovsky D CSKA Moscow (Russia) 56 1 7 8 32
24 Pittsburgh Chris Wells C Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) 195 9 20 29 193
25 New Jersey Vadim Sharifijanov L Ufa Salavat (Russia) 92 16 21 37 50


1995: 5 NHLers, 1 minor leaguer

20 Calgary Denis Gauthier D Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 384 13 45 58 515
21 Boston Sean Brown D Belleville Bulls (OHL) 389 13 32 45 872
22 Philadelphia Brian Boucher G Tri-City Americans (WHL) 188 0 2 2 12
23 Washington Miika Elomo L Kiekko-67 Turku (FinD1) 2 0 1 1 2
24 Pittsburgh Alexei Morozov R Krylja Sovetov (Russia) 451 84 135 219 98
25 Colorado Marc Denis G Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) 245 0 5 5 26


1996: 3 NHLers, non indispensable

20 Florida Marcus Nilson R Djurgardens IF Stockholm (SEL) 341 53 78 131 207
21 San Jose Marco Sturm C Landshut EV (DEL) 530 122 135 257 226
22 NY Rangers Jeff Brown D Sarnia Sting (OHL)
23 Pittsburgh Craig Hillier G Ottawa 67's (OHL)
24 Phoenix Daniel Briere C Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL) 354 105 118 223 228
25 Colorado Peter Ratchuk D Shattuck St. Mary's [Minn H.S.] 32 1 1 2 10


1997: 2 NHLers, non indispensable

20 Florida Mike Brown W Red Deer Rebels (WHL) 32 1 1 2 121
21 Buffalo Mika Noronen G Tappara Tampere (FNL) 63 1 0 1 2
22 Carolina Nikos Tselios D Belleville Bulls (OHL) 2 0 0 0 6
23 San Jose Scott Hannan D Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 348 15 64 79 233
24 New Jersey Jean-Francois Damphous G Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) 6 0 0 0 0
25 Dallas Brenden Morrow L Portland Winter Hawks (WHL) 370 97 107 204 573


1998: Gagne is a star, and another 4 ok players. One minor leaguer.

20 Colorado Scott Parker R Kelowna Rockets (WHL) 252 5 13 18 563
21 Los Angeles Mathieu Biron D Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) 201 8 23 31 127
22 Philadelphia Simon Gagne C Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 354 113 132 245 117
23 Pittsburgh Milan Kraft C Keramika Plzen (Czech.) 207 41 41 82 52
24 St. Louis Christian Backman D Vastra Frolunda (Sweden) 70 5 13 18 16
25 Detroit Jiri Fischer D Hull Olympiques (QMJHL) 283 8 44 52 262


1999: Nobody I'd really die to get on my team. Boynton is the only solid player.

20 Buffalo Barrett Heisten W U. of Maine (NCAA) 10 0 0 0 2
21 Boston Nick Boynton D Ottawa 67's (OHL) 245 17 55 72 304
22 Philadelphia Maxime Ouellet G Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 8 0 1 1 0
23 Chicago Steve McCarthy D Kootenay Ice (WHL) 134 3 13 16 45
24 Toronto Luca Cereda C Ambri-Piotta (SwissA)
25 Colorado Mikhail Kuleshov L Cherepovets Severstal (Russia) 3 0 0 0 0


2000: Frolov is a good player, but that's it.

20 Los Angeles Alexander Frolov L Yaroslavl Torpedo (Russia) 156 38 41 79 58
21 Ottawa Anton Volchenkov D CSKA Jr. (Russia) 76 4 15 19 48
22 New Jersey David Hale D Sioux-City Musketeers (USHL) 65 0 4 4 72
23 Vancouver Nathan Smith C Swift Current Broncos (WHL) 2 0 0 0 0
24 Toronto Brad Boyes C Erie Otters (OHL) 1 0 0 0 2
25 Dallas Steve Ott C Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 99 5 14 19 183


2001: Gleason looks good, but isn't gonna be a superstar. Nobody else has done much.

20 San Jose Marcel Goc C Schwenningen Wild Wings (DEL)
21 Pittsburgh Colby Armstrong W Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
22 Buffalo Jiri Novotny C Ceske Budejovice HC (Czech)
23 Ottawa Tim Gleason D Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 47 0 7 7 21
24 Florida Lukas Krajicek D Peterborough Petes (OHL) 23 1 6 7 12
25 Mtl. Canadiens Alexander Perezhogin R Omsk Avangard (Russia)


2002: Nobody yet.

Chicago Anton Babchuk D Elemash Elektrostal (Russia) 5 0 2 2 2
22 NY Islanders Sean Bergenheim L Jokerit Helsinki (FNL) 18 1 1 2 4
23 Phoenix Ben Eager L Oshawa Generals (OHL)
24 Toronto Alexander Steen C Vastra Frolunda HC Goteborg (SEL)
25 Carolina Cam Ward G Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
A lot of those guys while not stars, are players you need for depth and have served roles on a team.

But the way you chose 20-25 you also left off the following names who came between 26-30.

Dan Cloutier - NHL starting goalie
Mike Van Ryn - NHL defenseman
Scott Gomez - Top 6 Forward
Martin Havlat - Top 6 Forward
Justin Williams - top 6 Forward
Adam Munro - Rookie NHL goalie
And some guys who are considered pretty solid prospects (Eaves, etc.)

Heck, some guys while not stars are still productive NHL players.

You also have to factor in that your team might not have taken that player in that position but possibly (very likely) anyone taken with 10 picks of the spot.

So maybe you trade the 30th pick in 02, maybe you're choice would have been Stoll. That changes the scenario quite a bit.

But mainly the point should really be, what kind of teams make those moves. The answer generally is not a team that is only now starting to build some depth within it. That is where the Rangers are at.

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Old
02-28-2006, 08:01 PM
  #11
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A lot of times guys drafted in this range have more success than top picks because the pressure of a #24 overall pick is wayyyy less than that of a #1-5 etc. If you look historically at the Rangers picks in later years, they've developed some pretty good players like Weight, Amonte, Marchant, Zubov (btw anyone think Zubov will be a Hall of Famer?), Richter was a 2nd rounder, and now in recent years you've got Lundqvist, Prucha and Tyutin (2nd rounder), and I think that Nigel Dawes is going to be really good some day too. It's a lot of pressure for guys in the top selections, and a lot of times they can't handle the pressure. I mean look at some of these guys who have been rushed and haven't developed yet...M-A Fleury, Klesla, Svitov, Stefan (decent but was a #1 pick..), Lethonen has played a whopping 4 games and has had injury probs, etc etc. So of course the picks in the top 5 will be the most valuable...if you can draft right and don't screw up like we do, but I wouldn't go so far as saying that a 20-30 pick isn't valuable. There are always sleepers, which is where we seem to do the best. I don't want us to trade for a vet if it means giving up a 1st, rather I'd have us trade our 1st and a vet or something to move UP in the draft and try to nab some real good talent (Jordan Staal anyone? I can dream right...)

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Old
02-28-2006, 08:06 PM
  #12
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I'm not against making a vet trade, but it depends on the deal.

In the Rangers current state, it has to be pretty ideal for me to pull the trigger.

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02-28-2006, 08:17 PM
  #13
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One thing all these "draft analyses" people have been discussing lately fails to address is improved scouting quality and player development. Even in the last two drafts broken down here, I contend that 7 out of those 10 still project to be pretty good players for a long time, while the rest still have relatively high trade value should they be moved by their respective teams.

I'm not saying any of the above is reason not to trade your low first rounder, but I don't think you can realistically determine its value with these data.

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02-28-2006, 08:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robertch
One thing all these "draft analyses" people have been discussing lately fails to address is improved scouting quality and player development. Even in the last two drafts broken down here, I contend that 7 out of those 10 still project to be pretty good players for a long time, while the rest still have relatively high trade value should they be moved by their respective teams.

I'm not saying any of the above is reason not to trade your low first rounder, but I don't think you can realistically determine its value with these data.
Yes and no. Sports have been addressing improved scouting and player development for years. In reality the difference is pretty marginal at best.

The draft is and will always be a crap shoot because of the ages involved and the human factor.

What they have done is figure out a little better when to take a player.

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02-28-2006, 08:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hfbk2006
2000: Frolov is a good player, but that's it.

20 Los Angeles Alexander Frolov L Yaroslavl Torpedo (Russia) 156 38 41 79 58
21 Ottawa Anton Volchenkov D CSKA Jr. (Russia) 76 4 15 19 48
22 New Jersey David Hale D Sioux-City Musketeers (USHL) 65 0 4 4 72
23 Vancouver Nathan Smith C Swift Current Broncos (WHL) 2 0 0 0 0
24 Toronto Brad Boyes C Erie Otters (OHL) 1 0 0 0 2
25 Dallas Steve Ott C Windsor Spitfires (OHL) 99 5 14 19 183
Huh? Top 4 defenseman in Volchenkov, regular NHLer in Ott, Brad Boyes is having a great rookie season, and Hale has got good potential.

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02-28-2006, 11:31 PM
  #16
robertch
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Edge
Yes and no. Sports have been addressing improved scouting and player development for years. In reality the difference is pretty marginal at best.

The draft is and will always be a crap shoot because of the ages involved and the human factor.

What they have done is figure out a little better when to take a player.

I suppose you're right, though back in the ealy 90s scouting and information about players in the former Soviet countries was certainly much more limited than it is now. I agree it's in many ways a crap shoot. But I still think these draft analyses are not effective means for evaluating pick value.

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03-01-2006, 03:36 AM
  #17
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based on your chart i think you prove that a late 1st rounder is indeed a valuable commodity. The strength of your pick panning out would have to do something with the depth of the draft year and the ability of your scouts however. our scouts seem to be doing well so i would think we'd want to keep that pick.

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03-01-2006, 09:08 AM
  #18
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the rangers definitely aren't the only team that has drafted poorly, the draft is a crapshoot and if you just look at all the good players taken in later rounds that just shows you how many teams missed the player (including the team that picked him and passed over him multiple times)...no one is perfect in the draft and typical if out of 9 picks in a draft 2 turn into nhl players you had a good draft...

but that said as a ranger fan i'm not really concerned with how edmonton or sj or phoenix draft. i'm only concerned with the rangers drafting and what they are/aren't doing to improve the scouting, player development, etc.

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03-01-2006, 09:10 AM
  #19
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at the time of the draft, everyones pick is the next ____NHLER_____ not the next bust


i think threads like this are pointless since obviously not everyone will be a bust

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03-01-2006, 07:15 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n8
based on your chart i think you prove that a late 1st rounder is indeed a valuable commodity. The strength of your pick panning out would have to do something with the depth of the draft year and the ability of your scouts however. our scouts seem to be doing well so i would think we'd want to keep that pick.
You can come up with this conclusion only if you:

1. Pay attention only to NHLers;
2. Ignore busts;
3. Presume prospects and rookies will turn out well;
4. Look at average and below average NHLers as something particularly valuable.

It's true that every team needs avg and below avg players. However, they are not a commodity to die for.

If a player turns into, say, Ward, Roszie or Weekes, he'll be a decent NHLer. But a team is not going to break down by gaining or losing a player like that. There are so many of these players that one can always acquire them one way or another.

So what if someone is a top 4 dman? You are telling me that the Rangers won't be able to get a 3-4 dman via trade or free agency 5 years from now, if the team's success depended on it?


The only players I really look for are key, impact players who can be game-breakers. Basically, the top 4-5 forwards on a team, top 2-3 dmen, above avg starting goalie (above avg for a starting goalie).

Others are no more than interchangeable parts. If the Rangers will need another MacTavish in their Cup run in 2012-2013, I am sure they'll be able to get him.

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03-01-2006, 07:18 PM
  #21
Hfbk2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by in the hall
at the time of the draft, everyones pick is the next ____NHLER_____ not the next bust


i think threads like this are pointless since obviously not everyone will be a bust

I love the fact that people view every debate as an all-or-nothing issue.

Not every last overall pick will fail to make the NHL (Kim Johnsson made it). Does that mean that a last overall pick is highly valuable? Not every first overall draftee will be any good (Daigle first overall, Chizowski second overall), so does it mean that first overall picks are useless? No on both counts.

You go with percentages. And fact is that your "batting average" at the end of the first round is less than 50-50 to get an NHLer (even a 4th liner) and no more than 5-10% to get a star that will actually make a difference.

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