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The one thing to take away from this deadline...

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Old
03-09-2006, 07:24 PM
  #1
dulzhok
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The one thing to take away from this deadline...

Draft picks have significantly less value than they did under the old CBA.

Lowering the UFA age to 27(when players are just entering their prime), severely devalues all draft picks.

Also add to the pot a weak draft crop, and it's no surprise to see playoff teams (picking late) giving away 1st and 2nd round draft picks like candy.

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03-09-2006, 07:43 PM
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... or weak draft this year. After the top 8-10 picks, it's pretty much 'who cares'.

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Old
03-09-2006, 07:53 PM
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Not only to draft picks have less value, but they're also going to be more crucial in developing your team in the future.


One thing is for sure though, the cap has not changed how people trade during the season, it only changed who is getting the players.


Moving up the trade deadline didn't necessarily work either. A lot of people here believe that the Islanders, Bruins and Wild were in the playoff race and they all ended up being sellers.

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Old
03-09-2006, 07:59 PM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514
Not only to draft picks have less value, but they're also going to be more crucial in developing your team in the future.


One thing is for sure though, the cap has not changed how people trade during the season, it only changed who is getting the players.


Moving up the trade deadline didn't necessarily work either. A lot of people here believe that the Islanders, Bruins and Wild were in the playoff race and they all ended up being sellers.
Gotta love still having trades midseason tho, its non existent in the NFL and NBA which make the deadline boring, and all in season off field/off court stuff boring as hell.

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03-09-2006, 08:01 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coppernblue
Gotta love still having trades midseason tho, its non existent in the NFL and NBA which make the deadline boring, and all in season off field/off court stuff boring as hell.
also this is prolly the reason the NHL in the CBA agreed to say what the player has been paid up to that point only counts against the cap so it could still set up for a good deadline, and the smart teams leave some room so at the deadline they can really retool

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03-09-2006, 08:02 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coppernblue
Gotta love still having trades midseason tho, its non existent in the NFL and NBA which make the deadline boring, and all in season off field/off court stuff boring as hell.

It is still nice, but most of these deals were draft picks for players. That's all it's been for a long time now. The thing that really got it exciting was trading roster players for roster players -- and buyers trading with buyers. This is why all these proposals at this board are bunk and worthless. The reason there is no shot at them happening is because players are only traded for picks and sometimes a prospect.


Look at the draft, it's never been the trade deadline, but there was a time where players got moved there and now we're lucky if there is 1 player traded that anyone cares about.

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03-09-2006, 08:47 PM
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ummm...anyone else think it was just a seller's market? i think the big reason so many picks were moved was that so many more teams considered themselves in the race that they didn't want to dump without getting a premium. also, don't forget the huge number of free agents last year, the vast majority of which signed multiyear deals.
bottom line is less players available.

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Old
03-09-2006, 08:54 PM
  #8
dulzhok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kasper11
ummm...anyone else think it was just a seller's market?
It's probably a combination of all them all (GMs value draft picks less under new CBA, weak draft class, and a sellers market).

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03-09-2006, 09:14 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Draft picks have significantly less value than they did under the old CBA.

Lowering the UFA age to 27(when players are just entering their prime), severely devalues all draft picks.

Also add to the pot a weak draft crop, and it's no surprise to see playoff teams (picking late) giving away 1st and 2nd round draft picks like candy.
I think it is mainly because of the weak draft crop.

The new CBA, if anything, increases the significance of draft picks. Since young players are stipulated to sign under a 850K ceiling for their first four years of the league and players have the UFA option at 27, it is more crucial than ever to draft young talent and have them playing big roles on small salaries under the salary cap constraint. Teams that draft wise and develop fine youngsters will enjoy huge benefits over teams that don't in this competitive market. And more aggressive teams will further attempt to invest more and more into their scouting staff since their on-ice roster is restrained by a salary cap and they will look to drafting as an alternate path to upgrading their club. Although every team has different utility functions, the inherent value of a draft pick has increased imo.

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Old
03-09-2006, 09:29 PM
  #10
dulzhok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jovanovski = Norris
I think it is mainly because of the weak draft crop.

The new CBA, if anything, increases the significance of draft picks. Since young players are stipulated to sign under a 850K ceiling for their first four years of the league
I disagree. Most young players aren't going to be quality NHL players in their first years. While their cap hit is limited to $850K, only a handful of players are actually going to worth more than $850K. It's not as though all these 2nd round picks dealt today are going to turn into Ovechkins, putting up 40 goals and making only 850K. Most, if they ever make to the NHL, will expirence a huge learning curve, and they'll likely spend a few years in the AHL during their entry level cotract,

Then GMs will have to fear going through all the growing pains with a young player, developing him into a quality NHL player, then losing him just as he's entering his prime to UFA.


Last edited by dulzhok: 03-09-2006 at 09:39 PM.
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03-09-2006, 09:34 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514
Moving up the trade deadline didn't necessarily work either. A lot of people here believe that the Islanders, Bruins and Wild were in the playoff race and they all ended up being sellers.
Well, all I can say to that is that those people were wrong. None of those teams were/are making the playoffs.

Ta,

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Old
03-09-2006, 11:30 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Draft picks have significantly less value than they did under the old CBA.

Lowering the UFA age to 27(when players are just entering their prime), severely devalues all draft picks.

Also add to the pot a weak draft crop, and it's no surprise to see playoff teams (picking late) giving away 1st and 2nd round draft picks like candy.
Another reason may be that there's a limit on rights to Euros,
IMO, we're gonna see more and more and more players drafted, or not drafted, and signed as UFAs at age 21 or 22.

The Wings, for example, always bring their Euro guys over late anyway (Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Grigorenko). And they draft older Euros, like Bykov/Franzen/Kollar.

In the new NHL, you won't be able to draft guys and let them develop overseas as longterm projects. At least not as much.
So that reduces the value of draft choices to an extent.

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03-10-2006, 12:07 AM
  #13
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Redline said in October that except for a top tier of 3 or 4, who were pretty good, and a second tier of 6 or 7 more, this draft could rival 2002 and 1996 in utter uselessness. In fact those top three or four mask how bad this draft actually is according to them. Apparently the GM's agreed, based on their actions today. Craig Patrick refused to even take a pick from the 2006 draft, the second and fourth that he acquired today were from the 2007 draft. I am guessing that is the real lesson from today.

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03-10-2006, 12:08 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Draft picks have significantly less value than they did under the old CBA.

Lowering the UFA age to 27(when players are just entering their prime), severely devalues all draft picks.

.
Good point.
Teams will draft and develop a player over a 10 year process and be forced to sit back and watch a team that failed to draft any players worthy of a big salary, steal him for some of his best years.

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Old
03-10-2006, 12:20 AM
  #15
Jaded-Fan
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Originally Posted by Boomhower
Good point.
Teams will draft and develop a player over a 10 year process and be forced to sit back and watch a team that failed to draft any players worthy of a big salary, steal him for some of his best years.
Not really. First off, you pay a premium for a UFA player. Winning teams will have a mix and get the most value by getting good quality players cheap BEFORE they hit UFA. How many UFA's can anyone sign anyways? Too many and you cripple your team much like Dan Snyder did with the Redskins in the NFL. Next, the real stars you almost never will get UFA. The Crosbys and Ovechkins of the world, as we have seen and despite the daydreams of some here seem to sign with their original clubs. At a high cost, true, but still with their own clubs. How is LeCavilier working out for Montreal, eh?

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03-10-2006, 12:52 AM
  #16
dulzhok
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan
Next, the real stars you almost never will get UFA. The Crosbys and Ovechkins of the world, as we have seen and despite the daydreams of some here seem to sign with their original clubs.
We have seen very little in the cap world. You say you will have to pay a premium for a UFA? Maybe, maybe not. Look at the NFL for things to come. As the years progress, more and more teams will find themsevles in cap hell. Only a select few teams will even be able to bid for UFAs. We might see some overpayment in the begining years, but eventually, most teams won't be able to afford to overpay.

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03-10-2006, 12:54 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
We have seen very little in the cap world. You say you will have to pay a premium for a UFA? Maybe, maybe not. Look at the NFL for things to come. As the years progress, more and more teams will find themsevles in cap hell. Only a select few teams will even be able to bid for UFAs. We might see some overpayment in the begining years, but eventually, most teams won't be able to afford to overpay.
Why? They will get near the max wherever they sign. Why would their original clubs be at a disadvantage?

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03-10-2006, 01:16 AM
  #18
dulzhok
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan
Why? They will get near the max wherever they sign. Why would their original clubs be at a disadvantage?
If their original team is in cap hell and can't afford them, or if they simply want a change of scenery. We've seen the first major casualities in Forseberg and Niedermayer, and it's only just begun.

I think the NFL is the best way to see what's to come (it's the only other truely capped sport). Great players are let go all the time. Because their team doesn't want them? No, because they are backed into a corner by the cap.

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03-10-2006, 01:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
If their original team is in cap hell and can't afford them, or if they simply want a change of scenery. We've seen the first major casualities in Forseberg and Niedermayer, and it's only just begun.

I think the NFL is the best way to see what's to come (it's the only other truely capped sport). Great players are let go all the time. Because their team doesn't want them? No, because they are backed into a corner by the cap.
Ok, let us look to the NFL. Did Peyton Manning go anywhere? Shawn Alexander? Will they? The Ovechkins and Crosbys of the world are unlikely to move. However, names below those will move all over the place, and some big names. You are right, you can not keep them all. But you will in most cases be able to keep the face of your franchise.

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03-10-2006, 02:04 AM
  #20
dulzhok
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan
Ok, let us look to the NFL. Did Peyton Manning go anywhere? Shawn Alexander? Will they? The Ovechkins and Crosbys of the world are unlikely to move. However, names below those will move all over the place, and some big names. You are right, you can not keep them all. But you will in most cases be able to keep the face of your franchise.
So what exactly happened to Forseberg and Niedermayer

Again, I think it's hard to make a "in most cases" statement at this point, since we have so few cases to base it on. My orginal posts was just not refering to "superstar" players become free agents at 27, but the threat of any player becoming a free agent at 27.

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03-10-2006, 02:38 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan
The Ovechkins and Crosbys of the world are unlikely to move.
How about Joe Thorntons, Chris Prongers and Marian Hossas?

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03-10-2006, 02:41 AM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shveik
How about Joe Thorntons, Chris Prongers and Marian Hossas?
Unlikely to move, not impossible. There were reasons to move those players by choice other than inability to keep them. I still think that in most cases you will be able to keep the face of your franchise in the new NHL. Even a couple of faces of your franchise though that would take some juggling.

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03-10-2006, 03:05 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
So what exactly happened to Forseberg and Niedermayer
Well if the NFL went uncapped for ten years then switched to hard cap, I'm sure there would be a few star players leave their teams. Because thats essentially what the NHL went through until last year.

Keep in mind too that NFL contracts are structured differently than in the NHL and aren't guaranteed. The NFL teams that are in 'cap hell' mostly run into trouble with dead money, deferred signing bonuses from player releases. That wont happen in the NHL, because you're not going to get teams releasing 4 or 5 players each every season. Also the NFL has tighter rules for free agency. So I don't necessarily think the correlation exists with the NFL and NHL.

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03-10-2006, 05:38 AM
  #24
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The one thing I took away is;

NO ONE really knows what the cap figures are for each team.

We heard as recently as yesterday in NY/NJ local papers that New Jersey was hamstrung to make any moves.

fooey.

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Old
03-10-2006, 07:25 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kasper11
ummm...anyone else think it was just a seller's market? i think the big reason so many picks were moved was that so many more teams considered themselves in the race that they didn't want to dump without getting a premium. also, don't forget the huge number of free agents last year, the vast majority of which signed multiyear deals.
bottom line is less players available.

I wouldn't say that. There were teams who are just a 7-2-1 streak away from being in it, and some of them became sellers.

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