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The Vokoun Strategy

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03-23-2006, 12:05 AM
  #1
vopatsrash
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The Vokoun Strategy

I know this is early, but I'm curious to see what people think about this concept at this stage. I read somewhere, but have no link, that Tomas Vokoun has 1 year @ $2.38 (ish) million left on his contract after this season. That is a bargain, of course. Correct the amount, if I'm wrong.

Assuming he continues on his pace this season and has another stellar year next season, what would you do if you're Poile? Surely some team with a goaltending need will have a $6-7 million contract waiting for him to sign after next season.

-Would you approach him this offseason and see if the goodwill of offering him an extension would make him be open to a hometown discount? This might increase his pay next season as part of the offer.

-Would you wait out the season, reap the benefits of having a world class goalie at a bargain bin price and see what happens after the season?

-If Tomas continues to improve and is wanting $6-7 million, do you pay it?

-Do you think Pekka Rinne could be ready in 07-08 to the point that you could let Tomas walk and try to get away with 5+ more years of solid goaltending at a low price?

This seems far off, but it might be the most important decision in the next 5-10 years for the franchise and any chess matches between Poile/Shero and Tomas/his agent could begin in as early as a month from now.

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03-23-2006, 12:19 AM
  #2
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I really think we have to get a jump and re-sign him now. He's elite, and homegrown (well, relatively homegrown). I just think it would be a PR nightmare to see him go, even before considering how it would affect the team.

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03-23-2006, 01:02 AM
  #3
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I think we give him 5, and I hope he accepts it. Brodeur signed for around 5, as did Nabokov and other goalies he is comparable with. If we have to go to 6 or 7 million......its really going to hurt us finacially, and I would not be surprised to see us let him walk or do a sign and trade.

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03-23-2006, 07:09 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch
I think we give him 5, and I hope he accepts it. Brodeur signed for around 5, as did Nabokov and other goalies he is comparable with. If we have to go to 6 or 7 million......its really going to hurt us finacially, and I would not be surprised to see us let him walk or do a sign and trade.
I think that if he wants 6 or 7, we'll eventually pay 6 or 7. Look at teams that haven't had always Vokoun-like goaltending (Ottawa, Vancouver, Edmonton). All very talented teams that haven't amounted to much because of their lack of a goaltender. If we dump Vokoun, we better hope Pekka Rinne is ready because if he isn't, we'll be just like those clubs were/are, and that is a team with a talented lineup that never reaches it's potential because they can never find a really good goalie.

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03-23-2006, 08:21 AM
  #5
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I think one thing that may determine what we do this offseason is whether he is one of the three nominated for the Vezina....if he is....I think he and his agent will be thinking $6-7 mill elite goalie status is his due at the next contract.

The other thing is how far we go in the playoffs....the farther we go...the bigger the warchest....the bigger the season ticket sales next year....the better the marketing, etc...

With that being said, the likely scenario, IMHO, is :

-No Vezina nomination, Get bounced in the 1st round.....->continue with current contract and see how he does next year

-No Vezina nomination, Go far in the playoffs.......->approach him about a hometown discount $5-5.5 mill and a 3 yr contract

-Vezina nomination, Get bounced in 1st round.......->continue with current contract, seeing if his production falls off, thereby lowering his negotiating strength, and pursue the contract next year depending on how his year is going [like the goalies signed at the end of this year]

-Vezina Nomination, go far in the playoffs......->negotiate hard for the hometown discount above, but be ready to up it $6mill....if he refuses....wait.


There is no way we allow him to walk, IMO....elite goalies come along very rarely....we have seen the value of having one.....we are no longer as frugal as we once were and we are now a Stanely Cup condtender for years to come....we have to pay the market for elite players. Also remember one of the main reasons why Kariya signed [and future UFA's will come]....big-time goaltending, which is at a premium in the "New NHL." And by all accounts, Tomas loves it here and is not a "big city" kind of guy.

No freaking way we allow him to walk....no way in hell

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03-23-2006, 08:37 AM
  #6
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I guess the other question is....Have we ever renegotiated a contract over a year before it expired for a healthy raise?

If we have not had that presedence.....do we want to start one?

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03-23-2006, 08:49 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
I guess the other question is....Have we ever renegotiated a contract over a year before it expired for a healthy raise?

If we have not had that presedence.....do we want to start one?
We gave Walker a slight raise in the form of a 3 year 6 million dollar deal mid-season, but I don't remember anything significant being handed out.

I don't want us to let him walk either. Its just hard to predict if a team is willing to shell out that kind of money for a player. The most we have given out is to Kariya at 4.5. 6 million would be a level beyond that. I hope we can keep Tomas because it would truely change the dynamic of our team if he left.

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03-23-2006, 06:13 PM
  #8
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What he does in the playoffs will determine what kind of money he can demand this offseason.

If he has a stellar playoffs, he's going to be in a position to demand a lot of money.

If he has a bad playoffs, we might be able to get him for cheaper. But at the same time, it brings up the question "Do we want to throw a huge wad of money a goalie that isn't exactly playoff tested?"

If he has an OK playoffs, he still be in a good position to neg. a fat contract, but not a great position.

I'd still be really hesitant to throw him a 6-7 million contract. It's so hard for goalies to maintain a level of stellar play over a long period of time. Look at Khabibulin, who just last season won the Stanley Cup. Look at Theodore, who won the Vezina a couple of years ago. Look at Turco, who was consider a top 3 goalie last season, and now he's playing mediocre. Nabakov was considered a top 5 goalie last season, and now he's the backup.

I'm not saying it's going to happen to Vokoun, but it could. At this point, I'd be willing to give him 4-4.5 million MAX, 3 year extension. The only way I give him more is if he plays phenomenal during the playoffs this year, plays stellar next season, and phenomenal in next year's playoffs.

Who are the top paid goalies in the league? Khabibulin at 6.7 (which has turned out to be a catastrophe). Then Broduer at 5.2. Broduer's 5.2 should be the MAX we offer, given that he plays stellar in this years' playoffs, and stelllar next season. Otherwise, 4-4.5M.

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03-23-2006, 06:28 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
What he does in the playoffs will determine what kind of money he can demand this offseason.

If he has a stellar playoffs, he's going to be in a position to demand a lot of money.

If he has a bad playoffs, we might be able to get him for cheaper. But at the same time, it brings up the question "Do we want to throw a huge wad of money a goalie that isn't exactly playoff tested?"

If he has an OK playoffs, he still be in a good position to neg. a fat contract, but not a great position.

I'd still be really hesitant to throw him a 6-7 million contract. It's so hard for goalies to maintain a level of stellar play over a long period of time. Look at Khabibulin, who just last season won the Stanley Cup. Look at Theodore, who won the Vezina a couple of years ago. Look at Turco, who was consider a top 3 goalie last season, and now he's playing mediocre. Nabakov was considered a top 5 goalie last season, and now he's the backup.

I'm not saying it's going to happen to Vokoun, but it could. At this point, I'd be willing to give him 4-4.5 million MAX, 3 year extension. The only way I give him more is if he plays phenomenal during the playoffs this year, plays stellar next season, and phenomenal in next year's playoffs.

Who are the top paid goalies in the league? Khabibulin at 6.7 (which has turned out to be a catastrophe). Then Broduer at 5.2. Broduer's 5.2 should be the MAX we offer, given that he plays stellar in this years' playoffs, and stelllar next season. Otherwise, 4-4.5M.
I totally disagree, but I respect your right to your.....opinion.

The current benchmark is Kolzig signing at $5.45 x two years and Turco signing at $5.54 x 4 years.....with absolutley no playoff stipulation whatsoever.

your "5.2 MAX given he plays stellar in this year's playoffs, and stellar next season. Otherwise, 4-4.5M" is a joke and would be considered a slap by Vokoun. If we get to next season and he plays "stellar in this year's playoffs, and stellar next season" and we haven't signed him ahead of time.....the asking price will be at $6.5- 7 mill. I say you sign him now for Kolzig and Turco money of $5-5.5Mill NOW considering he has a decent playoffs.....and you reward the stellar play and work ethic that e have seen and you bank that it will continue.


Last edited by handtrick: 03-23-2006 at 06:55 PM.
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Old
03-23-2006, 07:44 PM
  #10
dulzhok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
I totally disagree, but I respect your right to your.....opinion.

The current benchmark is Kolzig signing at $5.45 x two years and Turco signing at $5.54 x 4 years.....with absolutley no playoff stipulation whatsoever.
Um... Turco makes 3.1 million. Kolzig 4.9 (which is considered to be overpaid).

The two highest paid goaltenders in the league are Khabibulin (6.7) and Broduer (5.2). Khabibulin's contract is a joke, and no one would trade for Bulin at that price for free. So, the only benchmark is Broduer. No way would I START OFF offering Vokoun 5.5M.

Right now, we offer him a step below the elite going price (Broduer). If he continues elite level play through the next year, then and only then would we offer Broduer money.

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03-23-2006, 08:30 PM
  #11
handtrick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
Um... Turco makes 3.1 million. Kolzig 4.9 (which is considered to be overpaid).

The two highest paid goaltenders in the league are Khabibulin (6.7) and Broduer (5.2). Khabibulin's contract is a joke, and no one would trade for Bulin at that price for free. So, the only benchmark is Broduer. No way would I START OFF offering Vokoun 5.5M.

Right now, we offer him a step below the elite going price (Broduer). If he continues elite level play through the next year, then and only then would we offer Broduer money.

Umm....Kolzig just signed a contract extension for two years for $5.45 and Turco just signed a contract extension for $22.8 over 4 years.....THAT is the CURRENT market, NOT what they are making this year.....duh.

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03-23-2006, 08:44 PM
  #12
dulzhok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
Umm....Kolzig just signed a contract extension for two years for $5.45 and Turco just signed a contract extension for $22.8 over 4 years.....THAT is the CURRENT market, NOT what they are making this year.....duh.
Ok, I stand corrected. I didn't realize they just signed extensions.


Last edited by dulzhok: 03-23-2006 at 08:52 PM.
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Old
03-23-2006, 08:46 PM
  #13
handtrick
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Turco's extension is for the NEXT four years and was signed Jan 2006 so the 24% rollback is not an issue...see the below link:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?id=149548&hubname=nhl

Kolzig's extension is for theNEXT 2 years and was signed 2-12-2006 so the 24% rollback is not an issue....see the below link:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/sport...4608-2149r.htm

NHLPA.com is only for CURRENT contracts.

I only use rarely use the classless "duh" when particularly appropriate.....in this case I think it is justified.....

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03-23-2006, 08:50 PM
  #14
dulzhok
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see previous post. as mentioned, i wasn't aware of the current exentions signed.

Still, I don't "start the bidding" by offering Vokoun the 2nd highest goaltender salary in the league. Goalies can fall too hard too quick. And the reality is that Vokoun has never won a playoff series. Is that a reason that he's not a top 2 goalie in the league? Not necessarily, but it's a point for negotiation.

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03-23-2006, 08:59 PM
  #15
handtrick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok
see previous post. as mentioned, i wasn't aware of the current exentions signed.

Still, I don't "start the bidding" by offering Vokoun the 2nd highest goaltender salary in the league. Goalies can fall too hard too quick. And the reality is that Vokoun has never won a playoff series. Is that a reason that he's not a top 2 goalie in the league? Not necessarily, but it's a point for negotiation.

if you re-read my prior post, a portion that I will quote below:

Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
With that being said, the likely scenario, IMHO, is :

-No Vezina nomination, Get bounced in the 1st round.....->continue with current contract and see how he does next year

-No Vezina nomination, Go far in the playoffs.......->approach him about a hometown discount $5-5.5 mill and a 3 yr contract

-Vezina nomination, Get bounced in 1st round.......->continue with current contract, seeing if his production falls off, thereby lowering his negotiating strength, and pursue the contract next year depending on how his year is going [like the goalies signed at the end of this year]

-Vezina Nomination, go far in the playoffs......->negotiate hard for the hometown discount above, but be ready to up it $6mill....if he refuses....wait.
I did not say start the bidding by paying him the 2nd highest salary...but be ready to give him Turco/Kolzig money at the least for any contract extension, prior to next year.....and if you wait until after next year....be prepared to pay even more....alot more....

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Old
03-23-2006, 09:23 PM
  #16
dulzhok
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
I did not say start the bidding by paying him the 2nd highest salary...but be ready to give him Turco/Kolzig money at the least for any contract extension, prior to next year.....and if you wait until after next year....be prepared to pay even more....alot more....
Unless of course, he stuggles. Goalies have a lot more probability of losing it than a skater, which is why this is a dicey situation.

If you look at the recent big contracts given out to goalies, most have turned out for the worse. Khabibulin. Theodore at 6m (rollback helped). Cujo in Detroit. Nabakov at 4.5m (rollback helped).

Broduer is arguable the only big contract goalie over the past couple of seasons that has lived up to the expectations of his phat contract.

Now that's what I call a sticky situation (southpark reference intended).

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03-24-2006, 06:28 AM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by handtrick
I guess the other question is....Have we ever renegotiated a contract over a year before it expired for a healthy raise?

If we have not had that presedence.....do we want to start one?
Because we have no player as vital to our franchise as Vokoun.

As far as the "current" market vs "extensions" remember, Vokoun's new contract would also be for the future, not current. So it'll have to be a projection and TV's younger than any of the guys mentioned.

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