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Friedman: Avs have asked for, and gotten, permission to talk to Kyle Dubas

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Old
05-24-2017, 09:35 AM
  #101
frog
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he's basically a genius, and has learned from the best in lou lamorello. I dont want him leaving toronto but i guess the avs are the best case scenario if he leaves

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05-24-2017, 09:39 AM
  #102
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interesting presentation. Sounds fairly intelligent. I wish the we could have seen the powerpoint presentation in that video.
He would definitely love Duchene. He's got an entire metric based on drawing penalties

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05-24-2017, 09:40 AM
  #103
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I don't know a ton about Dubas but seeing this much of a positive reaction is a nice change of pace. Is Sakic setting down after all?

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05-24-2017, 09:47 AM
  #104
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On Duchene... remember Dubas is a stats guy. Duchene has left his peak and is only a short bit from leaving his prime. Along with being 2 years from UFA. I think Dubas would use Duchene for a bundle of assets.

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05-24-2017, 09:52 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
On Duchene... remember Dubas is a stats guy. Duchene has left his peak and is only a short bit from leaving his prime. Along with being 2 years from UFA. I think Dubas would use Duchene for a bundle of assets.
Those seem like opinions more than stats. And the 2 years from being a UFA also has nothing to do with statistical performance.

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05-24-2017, 09:57 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by xbestboybandever View Post
Those seem like opinions more than stats. And the 2 years from being a UFA also has nothing to do with statistical performance.
Production (of a number of types) per dollar are stats used by a lot of organizations. Moneyball!

It is well known that statistical production peaks in the early 20s and players leave their primes around 27-29.

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05-24-2017, 10:01 AM
  #107
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I hope this happens. Then we can also get 3 franchise forwards (including a generational talent), 3 #1D, and a #1G just like the Leafs! Or does the delusion only come with being a Leafs fan?

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05-24-2017, 10:03 AM
  #108
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here's the interview i mentioned earlier. starts around 10:30. he talks about how it all got started with the greyhounds, how he ended up with the leafs, his philosophy, lots of stuff.



some good stuff also here

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05-24-2017, 10:05 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Production (of a number of types) per dollar are stats used by a lot of organizations. Moneyball!

It is well known that statistical production peaks in the early 20s and players leave their primes around 27-29.
Oh brother. Duchene's game has improved in some facet almost every year. He hit 30 goals last season, and became the top Face off man in the league this year.

Every player has a different development arc over the course of their career, and it is impossible to tell when a player is leaving their prime until after they have left it. Many players are able to maintain a high level of play long after their mid-20's. Look at goalies and d-men, most don't hit their strides until their mid-late 20's.

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05-24-2017, 10:13 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by xbestboybandever View Post
Oh brother. Duchene's game has improved in some facet almost every year. He hit 30 goals last season, and became the top Face off man in the league this year.

Every player has a different development arc over the course of their career, and it is impossible to tell when a player is leaving their prime until after they have left it. Many players are able to maintain a high level of play long after their mid-20's. Look at goalies and d-men, most don't hit their strides until their mid-late 20's.
Duchene peaked as a PPG player. He isn't that player anymore.

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05-24-2017, 10:27 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
On Duchene... remember Dubas is a stats guy. Duchene has left his peak and is only a short bit from leaving his prime. Along with being 2 years from UFA. I think Dubas would use Duchene for a bundle of assets.
The asset management side of Dubas would definitely sway more towards moving him. However there's still lots to love on the stats side of Matt Duchene which his why I even brought up Dubas being a fan. Aside from this past year Duchene's production and shot generation is damn near elite. Even last year (not THIS year) he was a complete monster on a bad hockey club. Even this past season which was a complete disaster he was still a better 5v5 player production wise than guys like Kopitar, O'Reilly, Voracek and Simmonds.

My hope is that Duchene is gone before July 1. I'm just saying Dubas may have hope for him as a player based on what he can (or at least could) offer.

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05-24-2017, 10:34 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by xbestboybandever View Post
Oh brother. Duchene's game has improved in some facet almost every year. He hit 30 goals last season, and became the top Face off man in the league this year.

Every player has a different development arc over the course of their career, and it is impossible to tell when a player is leaving their prime until after they have left it. Many players are able to maintain a high level of play long after their mid-20's. Look at goalies and d-men, most don't hit their strides until their mid-late 20's.
Duchene's faceoff numbers are inflated by the fact he mostly takes strong side and center ice faceoffs. Still he is great in that area, but that is a really small part of the game to me. Vermette is and has been elite in that area for a long time, it doesn't make him an elite players. Duchene's overall game might be slightly better, but I don't think it makes up for his production or how his skating drop off has made him more adept at wing. Obviously that is an opinion, but I think it is pretty clear his game has dropped off.

You don't have to believe it, but the numbers and studies are out there. Bender and I went rounds on this last year... and there also seems to be an experience/wear and tear factor along with it. Outside of some anomalies, only the elite tend to stay highly productive into their 30s. Defensemen tend to skew a little later, but there is still a large drop off for most around 29-30. Goalies are just a different breed, but I'd argue teams are not bring them up quickly enough and their primes really start sooner than most believe.

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Originally Posted by Cousin Eddie View Post
The asset management side of Dubas would definitely sway more towards moving him. However there's still lots to love on the stats side of Matt Duchene which his why I even brought up Dubas being a fan. Aside from this past year Duchene's production and shot generation is damn near elite. Even last year (not THIS year) he was a complete monster on a bad hockey club. Even this past season which was a complete disaster he was still a better 5v5 player production wise than guys like Kopitar, O'Reilly, Voracek and Simmonds.

My hope is that Duchene is gone before July 1. I'm just saying Dubas may have hope for him as a player based on what he can (or at least could) offer.
I'm not saying there isn't a lot to love about Duchene, but on a rebuilding team (and with Dubas as the head I think it is fair to call them that), I can't see Dubas not utilizing Duchene to bring in assets.

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05-24-2017, 10:38 AM
  #113
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Timing is a bit curious, but any indicator that Sakic is willing to get out of his own way is a good thing to me. Refreshing to see us look at a candidate who isn't a former Avs player or someone already in-house and considered worthy of a promotion.

Dubas would be a home run hire in my opinion. Let the kid have the keys to the kingdom, Chayka style. He's fit to do the top-down gutting that the whole organization needs. That said, I'm a little doubtful that it happens at this point. Sounds like they're looking for someone to come in and help (presumably as GM), but I don't know that Dubas would jump right now. I'll be quite happy if he does though.

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05-24-2017, 11:04 AM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Production (of a number of types) per dollar are stats used by a lot of organizations. Moneyball!

It is well known that statistical production peaks in the early 20s and players leave their primes around 27-29.
Yup. This is what I was alluding to earlier as well.


A lot of younger guys in the game look at players like this. Production per dollar and production above or below replacement. This is how they determine value for players and picks and how they incorporate cap space into an evaluation.


It's very similar to how things are done in baseball right now and with hockey becoming more and more advanced stats oriented taking the baseball approach to evaluating a player or players is I think the best way to go. And that's what Dubas will make.

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05-24-2017, 11:06 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Duchene's faceoff numbers are inflated by the fact he mostly takes strong side and center ice faceoffs. Still he is great in that area, but that is a really small part of the game to me. Vermette is and has been elite in that area for a long time, it doesn't make him an elite players. Duchene's overall game might be slightly better, but I don't think it makes up for his production or how his skating drop off has made him more adept at wing. Obviously that is an opinion, but I think it is pretty clear his game has dropped off.

You don't have to believe it, but the numbers and studies are out there. Bender and I went rounds on this last year... and there also seems to be an experience/wear and tear factor along with it. Outside of some anomalies, only the elite tend to stay highly productive into their 30s. Defensemen tend to skew a little later, but there is still a large drop off for most around 29-30. Goalies are just a different breed, but I'd argue teams are not bring them up quickly enough and their primes really start sooner than most believe.



I'm not saying there isn't a lot to love about Duchene, but on a rebuilding team (and with Dubas as the head I think it is fair to call them that), I can't see Dubas not utilizing Duchene to bring in assets.
Hope you're right.

Want to comment on the inflated Duchene face off numbers though. I don't think that's fair. If you spoke of any other Centre on the team you could use that argument but when Duchene is on the ice he's the FO guy regardless of side. He was the only one who didn't take strong side only I'm pretty sure.

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05-24-2017, 11:07 AM
  #116
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It's getting a bit late for a gutting, maybe they plan to ease a new guy in and slowly let him prune the org.

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05-24-2017, 11:09 AM
  #117
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MacFarland's got to be pissed if all this is for Joe's immediate (or eventual) replacement. Maybe they put MacFarland in Billington's spot?

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05-24-2017, 11:25 AM
  #118
henchman24
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Hope you're right.

Want to comment on the inflated Duchene face off numbers though. I don't think that's fair. If you spoke of any other Centre on the team you could use that argument but when Duchene is on the ice he's the FO guy regardless of side. He was the only one who didn't take strong side only I'm pretty sure.
When Duchene was with Comeau, MacK, and Compher this year he didn't take any right side faceoffs unless those players got kicked out. With Compher he didn't take center ice faceoffs. Duchene did take some weak side faceoffs, but not to the extent of a normal center. Duchene is very good on faceoffs now, but his numbers are inflated a bit.

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05-24-2017, 11:27 AM
  #119
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It's getting a bit late for a gutting, maybe they plan to ease a new guy in and slowly let him prune the org.
It's true; it would be highly consequential to bring an outside figure in now, at the start of an offseason that includes an expansion draft, entry draft (with a high pick in play), a multitude of roster/personnel decisions to make, and significant turnover in the coaching staff.

All that said, it seems like Joe is conceding that he wants/needs help in the form of some fresh blood in the front office. I'm glad it's not just MacFarland or Billington being handed more responsibility and a shuffling of titles.

Of course, we haven't hired anyone yet, so I'll just consider it all with some guarded optimism. It's not like we have a local journalist who can really dig on this for additional info. Even if Dubas doesn't become GM, it would be nice if Friedman eventually gave some more insight into what the Avs are/were looking for in Dubas or any other prospective hires.

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05-24-2017, 11:50 AM
  #120
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Maybe it's a package deal of Dubas bringing in Keefe as the Rampage coach to take over for Bednar after he's fired when they go 2-8 to start the season.

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05-24-2017, 11:51 AM
  #121
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It's very very unlikely that you get Dubas.

He's interviewed before (Arizona that we know of) and didn't leave.

Your team is a dumpster fire (no offence) and he wouldn't have complete control (Sakic).

He's a great hockey mind though if you can pull off a miracle and convince him.

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05-24-2017, 11:53 AM
  #122
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Friedman said a while back about a Dudley type hire, maybe it's all related to something like that?

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05-24-2017, 11:53 AM
  #123
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It's very very unlikely that you get Dubas.

He's interviewed before (Arizona that we know of) and didn't leave.

Your team is a dumpster fire (no offence) and he wouldn't have complete control (Sakic).

He's a great hockey mind though if you can pull off a miracle and convince him.
He probably would have complete control if he was hired. If he wanted this job, he'd do his due diligence on what happened between Roy and Sakic and ensure that the same doesn't happen with him and Sakic.

The fact that this team is a dumpster fire makes the job more enticing. People want to build something and get the credit for it, not take over something where 90% of the work has been done. If it was me, I'd rather take a job with Colorado/New Jersey/Vancouver instead of a job with Edmonton/Toronto/Pittsburgh/Chicago/etc.

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05-24-2017, 11:54 AM
  #124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mats13 View Post
It's very very unlikely that you get Dubas.

He's interviewed before (Arizona that we know of) and didn't leave.

Your team is a dumpster fire (no offence) and he wouldn't have complete control (Sakic).

He's a great hockey mind though if you can pull off a miracle and convince him.
Your team was a dumpster fire when he got there. Apparently it didn't scare him.

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05-24-2017, 11:58 AM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mats13 View Post
It's very very unlikely that you get Dubas.

He's interviewed before (Arizona that we know of) and didn't leave.

Your team is a dumpster fire (no offence) and he wouldn't have complete control (Sakic).

He's a great hockey mind though if you can pull off a miracle and convince him.
According to a Sportsnet article posted in this thread, Arizona asked to speak to Dubas and Dubas refused, citing that he wasn't ready.


Also, if a potential GM refuses to take a job because he's scared the team isn't good enough (unless there are other offers), I wouldn't want him. The GMs job is literally to fix that problem. If that's someone's attitude, they shouldn't be here.

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