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Signing Jacob Trouba

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05-24-2017, 09:18 AM
  #1
Jets4Life
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Signing Jacob Trouba

I think it's paramount for the Jets to sign Trouba. We just cannot let him go, and we should expect to pay top dollar for him. His bridge contract ends in 2018. He will be due for a big raise. If you combine the fact that the Canadian dollar is low, we are a small market, and his agent will be looking at Trouba being somewhat reimbursed for the bridge contract, what price are we willing to pay for Trouba?

My offer:

8 years, $60 million ($7,500,000 AAV)


Last edited by Jets4Life: 05-24-2017 at 09:36 AM.
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05-24-2017, 12:29 PM
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jamiebez
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My bold prediction #1: He doesn't sign an extension this summer, and goes to arbitration next summer, requesting a 2-year deal to get to UFA status in the summer of 2020.

My bold prediction #2: A GM not named "Kevin Cheveldayoff" will trade him at the 2020 trade deadline.


On #1, there is no motivation for him to sign an extension this summer. He already bet on himself once by holding out and then delivering a terrific season: his value only goes up if he can repeat that feat.

On #2, I've felt for a while that he is trying to engineer his way out of Winnipeg: unless he can get a deal that he feels will compensate him for staying (i.e. overpayment). I think it will get to a point where his trade value exceeds what the organization is willing to pay.

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05-24-2017, 12:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiebez View Post
My bold prediction #1: He doesn't sign an extension this summer, and goes to arbitration next summer, requesting a 2-year deal to get to UFA status in the summer of 2020.

My bold prediction #2: A GM not named "Kevin Cheveldayoff" will trade him at the 2020 trade deadline.


On #1, there is no motivation for him to sign an extension this summer. He already bet on himself once by holding out and then delivering a terrific season: his value only goes up if he can repeat that feat.

On #2, I've felt for a while that he is trying to engineer his way out of Winnipeg: unless he can get a deal that he feels will compensate him for staying (i.e. overpayment). I think it will get to a point where his trade value exceeds what the organization is willing to pay.
I am pretty sure if Trouba files for arbitration, the Jets get to say one or two year deal and vice versa but the Jets won't be filing it will be Trouba. I expect he signs long term (6 years) deal before an arbitration hearing.

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05-24-2017, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiebez View Post
My bold prediction #1: He doesn't sign an extension this summer, and goes to arbitration next summer, requesting a 2-year deal to get to UFA status in the summer of 2020.

My bold prediction #2: A GM not named "Kevin Cheveldayoff" will trade him at the 2020 trade deadline.


On #1, there is no motivation for him to sign an extension this summer. He already bet on himself once by holding out and then delivering a terrific season: his value only goes up if he can repeat that feat.

On #2, I've felt for a while that he is trying to engineer his way out of Winnipeg: unless he can get a deal that he feels will compensate him for staying (i.e. overpayment). I think it will get to a point where his trade value exceeds what the organization is willing to pay.
I'm inclined to agree with you. On #2 though I don't think the Jets will get anything by moving him in 2020 when he's a pending UFA. He'll be a high end rental to be sure and would likely return a first round pick, maybe a prospect as well. But by that time the Jets had better be highly competitive, able to win a round or two in the playoffs, otherwise we're squandering the next core of players in Jets jerseys. If we are competitive and at the very least a regular playoff team, the Jets aren't going to move Trouba just prior to the playoffs and weaken the team. Based on that I'd suggest his trade value is highest in the next 12-14 months and after that starts to decline rapidly.

If he stays, he's getting Buff money with longer term. His remaining RFA years will be lower than the AAV logically but his last couple of years will be higher. I do want him to stay here and play the next 8-10 years for the Jets. I'm just not convinced he wants to be here (small market, girlfriend, dad, taxes, cold, no parks, etc.).

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05-24-2017, 12:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamiebez View Post
My bold prediction #1: He doesn't sign an extension this summer, and goes to arbitration next summer, requesting a 2-year deal to get to UFA status in the summer of 2020.

My bold prediction #2: A GM not named "Kevin Cheveldayoff" will trade him at the 2020 trade deadline.


On #1, there is no motivation for him to sign an extension this summer. He already bet on himself once by holding out and then delivering a terrific season: his value only goes up if he can repeat that feat.

On #2, I've felt for a while that he is trying to engineer his way out of Winnipeg: unless he can get a deal that he feels will compensate him for staying (i.e. overpayment). I think it will get to a point where his trade value exceeds what the organization is willing to pay.
Agreed.

He's already said he's not going to sign before next year, I saw the interview but can't recall who the interviewer was.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think he's either going to be here one more year, or three at the most before he flies off to UFA.

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05-24-2017, 01:05 PM
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Getting Trouba signed long term is a priority however like the other posters, I think he's headed for arbitration and eventually UFA in 2020. Of course this is different if he gets top pairing minutes, with say Morrisey or another top pairing caliber D man who's brought in via trade and gets PP time etc. If he does get ALL of the things he wants, you're still not getting him long term for a dime less than 8M per over 7-8 years. My guess is 7 bring him to UFA at 30. Also this is really affected by the Jets becoming a true contender in the next year or two because if we're still toiling in the basement no amount of Money will keep him here.

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05-24-2017, 01:07 PM
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I give him no more than 7.5
I'd aim for 7 or 6.5
Scheifele is making 6

8 million is crazy talk
Just like signing buff for 7.6 wasn't a good contract and he was putting up better numbers

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05-24-2017, 01:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peggy View Post
I give him no more than 7.5
I'd aim for 7 or 6.5
Scheifele is making 6

8 million is crazy talk
Just like signing buff for 7.6 wasn't a good contract and he was putting up better numbers
It is not. Go check on the cost of 23yo #1D's. You can throw these disparaging remarks around all you want, but it's simply an incorrect statement.

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05-24-2017, 01:17 PM
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I think I have stated this before, but I will say it again: unless Trouba is being an asshat and keeping his opinions and motivations to himself, Chevy MUST know whether or not the time to trade Trouba is now or in the future. If he wants out - trade him now, there is a lot of value to be extracted. If it was down to money, pay the guy. If Chevy does not know this, fire Chevy and hire a GM who actually has a clue.

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05-24-2017, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by 10Ducky10 View Post
I am pretty sure if Trouba files for arbitration, the Jets get to say one or two year deal and vice versa but the Jets won't be filing it will be Trouba. I expect he signs long term (6 years) deal before an arbitration hearing.
This is correct. The party who doesn't file for arbitration chooses either 1 or 2 year deal. The only way Trouba would have a choice is if the Jets file for arbitration

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05-24-2017, 02:18 PM
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Peggy
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
It is not. Go check on the cost of 23yo #1D's. You can throw these disparaging remarks around all you want, but it's simply an incorrect statement.
Yeah, but I honestly could care less
What other teams have signed who for what
Monkey see monkey do?

If buff is/was putting up better numbers than Trouba at 7.6 and scheifele is putting up better numbers at 6
It's crazy talk and you're being pushed around by peer pressure

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05-24-2017, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peggy View Post
Yeah, but I honestly could care less
What other teams have signed who for what
Monkey see monkey do?

If buff is/was putting up better numbers than Trouba at 7.6 and scheifele is putting up better numbers at 6
It's crazy talk and you're being pushed around by peer pressure
It's market pressure. It's felt by all NHL teams. This isn't something "new", and you can't be "clever" by trying to avoid it. You'll simply end up not having that shiny young #1D past his RFA years.

8x8. Do it now, and no one will complain about it in 2-3 years when average #1D salaries far exceed that.

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05-24-2017, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Peggy View Post
Yeah, but I honestly could care less
What other teams have signed who for what
Monkey see monkey do?

If buff is/was putting up better numbers than Trouba at 7.6 and scheifele is putting up better numbers at 6
It's crazy talk and you're being pushed around by peer pressure
Except market comps is exactly how all GM's and Agents arrive at their respective positions.

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05-24-2017, 02:31 PM
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He might get 8 mil per year, probably not from the Jets though, its to bad that if the young players become what everyone expects them to become you probably wont be able to keep them together very long.

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05-24-2017, 02:31 PM
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I don't how he makes 2 mill more than guys like lindholm, Jones and reilly. I guess since the jets would be eating up some Ufa years?

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05-24-2017, 02:33 PM
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I don't how he makes 2 mill more than guys like lindholm, Jones and reilly. I guess since the jets would be eating up some Ufa years?
You'd be paying more for those extra UFA years, yes.

PS: I'll be ****ing pissed if the Jets cheap out on Trouba and end up letting him walk after his RFA years. Sign the damned kid, and lets start competing - get Morrissey done when he's due, and you've got a potentially incredible 1st pairing for many, many moons.

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05-24-2017, 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
It's market pressure. It's felt by all NHL teams. This isn't something "new", and you can't be "clever" by trying to avoid it. You'll simply end up not having that shiny young #1D past his RFA years.

8x8. Do it now, and no one will complain about it in 2-3 years when average #1D salaries far exceed that.
Agreed. People also have to stop bringing up Scheifele's deal. It was signed just prior to him truly becoming elite and will be a flat out be a steal if he stays a top 10 C in the league. Most of his peers with regards to cap hit are north of 7 million per year.

Trouba a $8 million per is market value for a top 5 dmen in the game.

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05-24-2017, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Jets4Life View Post

My offer:

8 years, $60 million ($7,500,000 AAV)
I'm sorry but that is actually ****ing insane. If that's what it would take to keep him i say trade him away.

You people actually believe that he should be making Burns/Karlsson/Letang/Hedman money....are you nuts?


Last edited by Rambokala: 05-24-2017 at 02:47 PM.
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05-24-2017, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
It's market pressure. It's felt by all NHL teams. This isn't something "new", and you can't be "clever" by trying to avoid it. You'll simply end up not having that shiny young #1D past his RFA years.

8x8. Do it now, and no one will complain about it in 2-3 years when average #1D salaries far exceed that.

I don't think it's just nhl market influence
I think you're more willing to give him the money because he's threatened to leave
If he said how happy he was to play for the Jets we would probably talking 7 million
When guys like lindholm who drw brought up is getting paid less than 6

You're also setting a standard

Once Trouba makes that big 8 expect ehlers and Laine to make an extra million because of it

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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Agreed. People also have to stop bringing up Scheifele's deal. It was signed just prior to him truly becoming elite and will be a flat out be a steal if he stays a top 10 C in the league. Most of his peers with regards to cap hit are north of 7 million per year.

Trouba a $8 million per is market value for a top 5 dmen in the game.
I don't think it matters when scheifele signed
This was scheifeles first year with his new contract and he's better/more productive than Trouba
And Trouba and his agent is gonna tell the GM he's worth 2 million more than the assistant captain, the first person to score 80 points in the Jets 2.0 franchise?

Trouba ain't a top 5 defenseman right now so why we giving him 8 million for something he hasn't exactly proven yet?
7 million is more appropriate if we were to resign him before the next season
Since we are dealing with someone who would be more than happy to walk

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05-24-2017, 02:44 PM
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I think the Jets are willing and able to pay what Trouba would want financially. I have doubts that it's just a financial situation, and I think he might still want to play in the US. In that case, I would favour trading Trouba sooner rather than later, while his trade value is sky high. The Jets have plenty of assets now to rearrange the roster to compensate for his absence while still having a deep and talented roster. The worst scenario is having Trouba stay and play disgruntled and then being forced to trade him for a weaker set of assets. I still think that if it's clear that Trouba wants out for other than financial reasons, then the best time to trade him is likely this off-season.

I'd be fine with a comparable return in forwards / futures if the Jets can't get a #1D in return. Then the Jets can go hunting for D with their asset stack (forwards and futures).

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05-24-2017, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Rambokala View Post
I'm sorry but that is actually ****ing insane. If that's what it would take to keep him i say trade him away.

You people actually believe that he should be making Burns/Karlsson/Letang money....are you nuts?
Letang: signed in 2014
Burns: market level deal for one of the highest producing defensemen in the league
Karlsson: signed in 2012

Upwards price pressure - you can't compare those older contracts to what would be handed out today.

So no, it's not nuts - it's standard fare if you believe him to be a legit #1, which I do.

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05-24-2017, 03:08 PM
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Peggy
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Letang: signed in 2014
Burns: market level deal for one of the highest producing defensemen in the league
Karlsson: signed in 2012

Upwards price pressure - you can't compare those older contracts to what would be handed out today.

So no, it's not nuts - it's standard fare if you believe him to be a legit #1, which I do.
You can tho when guys like ovi are still at a cap hit of 9.5

Isn't 10 the highest you can go in the nhl?

Their prices should still be relative and Trouba still isn't the best defenseman in the league either

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05-24-2017, 03:10 PM
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Hope Trouba is putting up Ehlers or Laine type points when we have to trade one of them because of cap space in a couple years.

8 million is crazy. Trouba isn't Karlsson.

Makes me appreciate Scheifs even more. What a bargain #55 is.

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05-24-2017, 03:16 PM
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YWGinYYZ
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You can tho when guys like ovi are still at a cap hit of 9.5

Isn't 10 the highest you can go in the nhl?
You can go as high as you want / can afford. I'm not sure what Ovi has to do with Trouba's contract.

Quote:
Their prices should still be relative and Trouba still isn't the best defenseman in the league either
That's not how salaries / contracts work in the NHL. You can argue against that, but it's simply a fact that you have to pay to play.

I'd be ecstatic if we can get him for anything under $8M a year for 8 years.

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05-24-2017, 03:18 PM
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YWGinYYZ
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PS: cut out the "you're crazy / you're nuts" stuff. Dissect / debate people's points without tossing out ad-hominems. Thanks.

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