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The 2017 NHL Entry Draft: Part V

View Poll Results: 61.2% of you voted for Hieskanen. Do you expect Avs to draft a defender that high?
Yes, without a doubt. 13 14.13%
Yes, but I do have concerns. 22 23.91%
Yes, but I'm fine with any prospect regardless of position. 13 14.13%
No, but I'm fine with any prospect regardless of position. 24 26.09%
No, but Avs will be making the wrong choice. 20 21.74%
Voters: 92. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-05-2017, 06:12 PM
  #101
tucker3434
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raistlin76 View Post
Do we have Zads signed longterm? No! Is he linked with KHL teams? Yes! We even don't know if he is here next year. Hope he is but we won't know until he signs. Are we sure Meloche will be top4 or at least top6 d-man in NHL? No, he is still prospect/project however you called it. Of course we hope he will be NHLer sooner than later but we also thought Siemens will be NHLer. Unfortunately looks like he won't. Does Bigras already has two or three concussions? Yes! Are we sure he will be in NHL next season? No! He looks like injury-prone guy, whos career stalled at least a bit probably because of health problems. Why draft not one but two d-men who could be in NHL in next 2-4 years? Because we are very, very weak on defense and we don't have some slum dunk defensive prospects who are sure to be in NHL soon.
If you want to go super-pessimistic, you could do the same with the forwards. I mean who's to say Rantanen doesn't go back to Finland in two years?

You just can't evaluate that way.

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Old
06-05-2017, 06:17 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
Moving up one spot in the round always struck me as silly. If the team at 3 doesn't want the guy you want, just let them pick him and get your guy one spot later. And if both teams really want the same guy, it costs so much to move up that one spot that it's rarely worth it.
The higher in the draft you are, I agree. Every team is going to have their guy and isn't going to move back and lose him. Dallas can pick pretty much anyone they want, if they are willing to move then they aren't taking that guy. I'm sure they can bluff it a bit but if they pull the trigger on it then that says they weren't taking the guy. Later in the draft maybe it really is a coin flip for them.

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06-05-2017, 06:25 PM
  #103
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Mittelstadt would be fun. He could torch the Wild for years and maybe Russo would get really upset.

Also the pudgy comments when he has bad games would be funny, and I can imagine that EJ would have some good nicknames for him.

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06-05-2017, 06:29 PM
  #104
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Not endorsing moving up to three but its also not as simple as if dallas wants that player then they wont trade with us. Dallas may not want same player as us but they can still trade back and we can get jumped by a team that wants a particular player. So not at all advocating it just stating that its not as simple as they wont trade back to 4 if they think we want same player

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06-05-2017, 06:35 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
I think you're underrating 2nd round picks by a lot. A good org should hit on at least 50% of those, they're not long shots by any means. Falling to he 2nd actually usually means they have holes in their games, which is where development comes in. Obviously, some of that is incumbent on the prospect, but good development is half the battle to teach them good habits.

To TV: Your concerns are not unreasonable with regards to development, but I'd like to give the current group of prospects more time before I start to despair. We've seen guys like Nantel, Lindholm, and Boikov succeed here, and Morrison is a prospect who I think improved a lot last year as well. All is not lost yet, and I think people are passing judgement far too hastily in this regard. Bigras is particular is way, way too early to call him a bust.
I was curious anyways about success rates in recent years. I took numbers from 08 through 12 drafts (13 too but it skewed numbers too much after pick 10, not a single player from 2013 second round has played 100+ games. Also, a very bad 2012 draft brings some of the numbers from late first and second round categories down slightly)

Picks 1-10
1 game: 100%
50 games: 92%
100 games: 88%
150 games: 88%

Picks 11-20
1 game: 96%
50 games: 86%
100 games: 78%
150 games: 64%

Picks 21-30
1 game: 90%
50 games: 66%
100 games: 43%
150 games: 36%

Picks 31-60 (Second round) [Percentage without 2012]
1 game: 69% [77%]
50 games: 43% [48%]
100 games: 36% [39%]
150 games: 29% [33%]

I was wrong to call second round picks a long shot, but it's closer to long shot than guarantee.

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Old
06-05-2017, 06:41 PM
  #106
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It doesn't matter what the rate is, the Avs NEED 2nd round picks to work out. Yes, it's unrealistic to expect them all to but when you can't get a good talent in Elliott to work out, Siemens as a first rounder didn't and now bringing in some concern that Bigras might not, it is a very concerning track record. Bigras was a good pick, smart, great skater and above all SAFE. Now we go to Meloche, two years later he's still a good pick, talented and with a bright future ahead of him and if they can't get a NHL player out of him, how long until we start to point the finger? I understand not crucifying until things happen but for those folks who want to see the problem fixed now then I think a concern level is appropriate.There's also a huge difference between pick 35-40 and 60.

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06-05-2017, 06:51 PM
  #107
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Every year there are going to be talented players that bust. It happens. Siemens had inflated offensive numbers and things just tumbled after his draft year. When you get out of the top tiers, those players start showing up in the 1st. Elliott's biggest weakness, is something he never worked through. I push the blame on him big time there. Bigras and Meloche... if they don't get NHL players out of those two, it is purely on the organization.

We should be looking at Heard, Picks, ROR, Gaunce, Delmas, etc to get the full picture. Heard was a reach and trying to fill a need soon... complete misevaluation. Picks and ROR developed pretty well. Gaunce was a player that just couldn't take the next step and hasn't anywhere he has been. I'd lean misevaluation there. Delmas was a complete misevaluation.

The Avs track record in the top 40-50 picks is actually solid IMO. Yeah they have some misses, but they tend to hit about like an average or slightly above team there. Past 40-50 they are pretty much an utter disaster.

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06-05-2017, 06:53 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
The Avs track record in the top 40-50 picks is actually solid IMO. Yeah they have some misses, but they tend to hit about like an average or slightly above team there. Past 40-50 they are pretty much an utter disaster.
Hopefully Beaudin, Morrison, Nantel, Mironov, Boikov and Lindholm can start to change that.

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06-05-2017, 06:55 PM
  #109
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I fully agree that the Avs drafting needs to be better, especially in the second round. When was our last actual successful second round pick? It's probably been 10 years. I posted those numbers because I find that stuff interesting. My only argument was that we can't assume so many of our prospects will reach their ceiling.

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06-05-2017, 06:59 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by GeniusSuperior View Post
I was wrong to call second round picks a long shot, but it's closer to long shot than guarantee.
You weren't wrong at all. 150 games isn't even 2 full seasons in the NHL and less than a third of them achieve that.

Statistically, you should expect one 2nd rounder out of 4 to have a decent (but not necessarily brillant) NHL career. That's one per four years assuming you keep all your picks.

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06-05-2017, 06:59 PM
  #111
henchman24
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Originally Posted by cgf View Post
Hopefully Beaudin, Morrison, Nantel, Mironov, and Boikov can start to change that.
Well, Morrison would be in that top 40ish group, but yeah hopefully. Personally, I think the only impact players (top 9/top 4) sorts in that group are Morrison and Beaudin... but I'd be very, very happy if just one of the others could provide NHL depth for 3-4-5 years. I'd add Lindholm to that group as well (see you ninja'd me). There were some definite positive signs in recent drafts. 2016 seems like a slight step back to me, but time will tell there and even great drafting teams have off years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeniusSuperior View Post
I fully agree that the Avs drafting needs to be better, especially in the second round. When was our last actual successful second round pick? It's probably been 10 years. I posted those numbers because I find that stuff interesting. My only argument was that we can't assume so many of our prospects will reach their ceiling.
I'd say Picks was successful. ROR was wildly successful. The usually 2nd rounders take a bit of time. We will see how Bigras, Greer, Meloche, and Morrison work out.

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06-05-2017, 07:08 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
It doesn't matter what the rate is, the Avs NEED 2nd round picks to work out. Yes, it's unrealistic to expect them all to but when you can't get a good talent in Elliott to work out, Siemens as a first rounder didn't and now bringing in some concern that Bigras might not, it is a very concerning track record.

If you look at our number of 2nd rounders vs those who achieved NHL success we're right there in the middle of the pack. You think we're worse because you overrate the hell out of 2nd rounders, even when we show you the math of what's happening league-wide.

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06-05-2017, 07:25 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Well, Morrison would be in that top 40ish group, but yeah hopefully. Personally, I think the only impact players (top 9/top 4) sorts in that group are Morrison and Beaudin... but I'd be very, very happy if just one of the others could provide NHL depth for 3-4-5 years. I'd add Lindholm to that group as well (see you ninja'd me). There were some definite positive signs in recent drafts. 2016 seems like a slight step back to me, but time will tell there and even great drafting teams have off years.



I'd say Picks was successful. ROR was wildly successful. The usually 2nd rounders take a bit of time. We will see how Bigras, Greer, Meloche, and Morrison work out.
2016 doesn't look good with the missing pick and the Anderson selection, but may be without the first round stigma or injuries he can become a Duncan Siemens that the organization actually gives a shot as it's big tough #6?...

PS do you know anything about how Clurman's season went? I'm still lowkey really excited by that kid's tools.

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06-05-2017, 07:27 PM
  #114
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06-05-2017, 07:28 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
If you look at our number of 2nd rounders vs those who achieved NHL success we're right there in the middle of the pack. You think we're worse because you overrate the hell out of 2nd rounders, even when we show you the math of what's happening league-wide.
You are the one always talking about how we need to get on the road to competitiveness sooner than later. How is that going to happen if you don't even count on second round picks to help that? I'm talking about defensemen too, you know our big problem area.

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06-05-2017, 07:30 PM
  #116
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Hates Americans. Of course the ad shows fine. Nice since they'll probably all be drafted by American teams but whatever. If someone finds a non geo locked version please share

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06-05-2017, 07:32 PM
  #117
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Hates Americans. Of course the ad shows fine. Nice since they'll probably all be drafted by American teams but whatever
I didn't actually watch the video so it probably doesn't work for me either.

The picture of the fat kid was plenty.

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06-05-2017, 07:32 PM
  #118
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I think it's a little in the middle. I agree some might be under rating the Avs second round a little bit, but they still have a strong argument. The fact is that the Avs have not drafted an impact player outside of the first round in well over a decade with 2-3 exceptions (Barrie, O'Reilly, and maybe Pickard, though I may be forgetting others). In addition, we haven't been able to even find depth players to fill roles with.

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06-05-2017, 07:38 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by tigervixxxen View Post
You are the one always talking about how we need to get on the road to competitiveness sooner than later. How is that going to happen if you don't even count on second round picks to help that?
I don't disagree that we need more picks, I disagree with your perception of how young hockey players develop into NHL players. Drafting the right players is a thousand times more important than what the AHL trainers are going to say to them.

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06-05-2017, 07:42 PM
  #120
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2016 doesn't look good with the missing pick and the Anderson selection, but may be without the first round stigma or injuries he can become a Duncan Siemens that the organization actually gives a shot as it's big tough #6?...

PS do you know anything about how Clurman's season went? I'm still lowkey really excited by that kid's tools.
I heard Clurman played really well all season. But against that competition it doesn't mean much. Tri City is hoping he waits a year for college. I think that would be good for him, but I doubt it happens.

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06-05-2017, 07:45 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Balthazar View Post
You weren't wrong at all. 150 games isn't even 2 full seasons in the NHL and less than a third of them achieve that.

Statistically, you should expect one 2nd rounder out of 4 to have a decent (but not necessarily brillant) NHL career. That's one per four years assuming you keep all your picks.
That's absurd. Teams that draft well in the second round are the teams who succeed, and that's what we want to be, right? Putting aside the fact that guys like Subban, Keith, Neal, ROR, Toffoli, Vlasic, Simmonds, and Kucherov were all second round picks and the possibility that you can get really high end bonanzas there, the second round is where you get your depth guys from. If you can't hit there, then you're forced to overpay in free agency for mercenaries without any internal options. And look how well that's worked for us.

You HAVE to make those picks work. The fact that so many failed for so long for us is probably the biggest reason the team is where it is now.

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06-05-2017, 07:55 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by McMetal View Post
That's absurd. Teams that draft well in the second round are the teams who succeed, and that's what we want to be, right? Putting aside the fact that guys like Subban, Keith, Neal, ROR, Toffoli, Vlasic, Simmonds, and Kucherov were all second round picks and the possibility that you can get really high end bonanzas there, the second round is where you get your depth guys from. If you can't hit there, then you're forced to overpay in free agency for mercenaries without any internal options. And look how well that's worked for us.

You HAVE to make those picks work. The fact that so many failed for so long for us is probably the biggest reason the team is where it is now.
Cherry picking good players that were drafted in the 2nd round isn't proving anything. Statistics are statistics and only 29% of 2nd rounders league-wide play 150 games or more in the NHL during their career. That's not an AVS thing.

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06-05-2017, 07:56 PM
  #123
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I don't disagree that we need more picks, I disagree with your perception of how young hockey players develop into NHL players. Drafting the right players is a thousand times more important than what the AHL trainers are going to say to them.
This idea that it's all on the kids to develop is ridiculous. Do you have any idea how many football, basketball and baseball prospects pick their college because of how well those programs are at developing talent? Even the hockey players like Jost picked UND because of its development history. When kids have a choice of where to go a lot of times past success developing others into pro players is a huge selling point to them.

If these egotistic teenagers see the importance of a program's ability to develop players then there has got to be something to it.

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06-05-2017, 08:00 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by StayAtHomeAv View Post
This idea that it's all on the kids to develop is ridiculous. Do you have any idea how many football, basketball and baseball prospects pick their college because of how well those programs are at developing talent? Even the hockey players like Jost picked UND because of its development history. When kids have a choice of where to go a lot of times past success developing others into pro players is a huge selling point to them.

If these egotistic teenagers see the importance of a program's ability to develop players then there has got to be something to it.
Usually you're done with junior hockey when you reach the AHL and your development is mostly done. To me it's ridiculous to think that Bleackley, Hishon or Siemens, for example, would have succeed if the AVS had better development. They were bad picks. It happens.

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06-05-2017, 08:01 PM
  #125
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Referenced most recent complete HF game day talk for rosters and what I could remember of Avs injuries.
Nashville: 14 players drafted by team, 10 of which were outside first round. 13 not drafted by Nashville.
Pittsburg: 9 players drafted by Pens, 5 of which outside first round. 13 not drafted by Pens.
Colorado: 9 players drafted by Avs, 3 of which outside first round. 14 not drafted by Avs.

Avs numbers include the likes of Siemens and Lindholm (who, along with Barrie and Pickard were the three non first rounders)

Nashville numbers there are dang impressive. It's 27 players total with lots of injuries/scratches.
Also, all four goalies in the finals are playing for the team that drafted them.

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