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Keep Enstrom or not [Enstrom waived NMC for XD]

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Old
06-07-2017, 11:42 AM
  #51
Aavco Cup
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Originally Posted by DEANYOUNGBLOOD17 View Post
Why would Vegas take that chance?

If they were to select Enstrom there is a 50/50 chance that enstrom would use his N.M.C while in Vegas and not allow them to recoup any assets from him. Then they are stuck with him for 1 year at 5.75 mill which is double what he is currently worth.

If we expose Enstrom........Vegas will not select him!

" Don't be ridiculous"........ you should not be so naive.
How many players have done that? Not waived? It's a very small chance.

The issue I have is when people say matter of factly that Vegas won't do this or won't do that.
Nobody's here has any idea what they will do.

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06-07-2017, 11:47 AM
  #52
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Consensus 5th best dman on this team. Pending ufa who will more then likely be on 3rd pairing. Does toby take 2 million next year to be 3rd pairing or does he leave. So for 1 year of 3rd pairing dman we lose 4 years of perreault or half a dozen years of lowry. Get him to waive or buy him out.
Disagree that there is a consensus and think it's very unlikely that he is a 3rd pairing next season. And why would you ever buy out a player if you aren't in cap trouble

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06-07-2017, 11:49 AM
  #53
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Chipman would pay Enstrom $5.75M to play for the Jets
I doubt he intends to pay him $4.2M to play for a competator

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06-07-2017, 11:52 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by supersonic jet View Post
I agree with you and this might have been done already.

I hope after the playoffs LV starts announcing one trade a day so this site does not go down, starting with us. Hoping a Dano + a 3rd to bypass Myers.
I wouldn't do that. Expose Myers and take our chances.

Alternately get a little cute. Having already decided to expose Myers make a deal with LV promising to expose Myers and give them a 4th in exchange for a goalie.

I think Myers and a 4th to cover off our XD obligation and get a goalie would be pretty good asset management considering Myers' health/durability issue.

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06-07-2017, 12:16 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Why would he waive his NMC? He negotiated it for situations exactly like we're in right now. He has control.
Well, it could actually be to Toby's advantage to play elsewhere if he's only going to get third line minutes in Winnipeg. If he goes somewhere where he can play a more prominent role, he might be able to raise his value in FA next off season and be able to secure another contract, maybe even a longer one than he would be able to playing for a team like the Jets that want to move to play the younger players. It's his chance showcase himself.

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06-07-2017, 12:20 PM
  #56
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Disagree that there is a consensus and think it's very unlikely that he is a 3rd pairing next season. And why would you ever buy out a player if you aren't in cap trouble
All things being equal health wise. Toby is half the dman myers literally and figuratively. Toby is 5 on the depth charts. Like alot of xplayers on xm say. If they dont want you.. why would you stay. When talking about asking players to waive. Look for him to waive. Can't lose perreault. Lowry will get protected.

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06-07-2017, 12:24 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Bristo View Post
Well, it could actually be to Toby's advantage to play elsewhere if he's only going to get third line minutes in Winnipeg. If he goes somewhere where he can play a more prominent role, he might be able to raise his value in FA next off season and be able to secure another contract, maybe even a longer one than he would be able to playing for a team like the Jets that want to move to play the younger players. It's his chance showcase himself.
He had a turbulent personal life last year. It's quite possible he doesn't want to add to it by playing in a new market this coming season.

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06-07-2017, 12:28 PM
  #58
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Worse on paper maybe. Having him in the lineup has never translated into wins. With Enstrom gone Chevy might actually be forced to do something for once!

I wouldn't buy Toby out, but he should be shopped hard pre-XD. The return doesn't matter, any capspace gained would be an asset in and of itself.

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06-07-2017, 01:11 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Bristo View Post
Well, it could actually be to Toby's advantage to play elsewhere if he's only going to get third line minutes in Winnipeg. If he goes somewhere where he can play a more prominent role, he might be able to raise his value in FA next off season and be able to secure another contract, maybe even a longer one than he would be able to playing for a team like the Jets that want to move to play the younger players. It's his chance showcase himself.
What makes you think he will only get 3rd pair minutes? Who's going to play 2nd pair?

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06-07-2017, 01:36 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Bristo View Post
Well, it could actually be to Toby's advantage to play elsewhere if he's only going to get third line minutes in Winnipeg. If he goes somewhere where he can play a more prominent role, he might be able to raise his value in FA next off season and be able to secure another contract, maybe even a longer one than he would be able to playing for a team like the Jets that want to move to play the younger players. It's his chance showcase himself.
Sorry he is not going to be our #3 LHD next year.....pipe dream that we bring in a top 4 LHD next year. We may bring in a #3 who is younger and they hope can develop into that role, but not a set in stone proven top 4 IMHO...

What good defensive team (not a crappy expansion team) will allow Toby to "showcase" himself that would trade for him at almost 6 mil and guarantee him a top 4 role no questions asked? I don't see it

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06-07-2017, 01:53 PM
  #61
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One thing we have learned in Winnipeg over the past 3 seasons is we need about 8 or 9 D men to fill our roster. One of the fatal flaws our board (and most boards) has is that people pencil in the starting 6 D men like it's going to stay that way and somehow forget to factor in injuries. There are 328 man games we need to fill our top 4 D spots during the regular season and that will take about 5 D men to pull it off (average of 66 games per defender).

If we are out of a playoff spot (shudder) and Toby is healthy we could get value for him at the trade deadline if he is willing to go to a playoff bound team.

12 months from now things could look very different but for now unless we are adding plug and play D assets this off season I say keep Toby for 2017-18.


Last edited by ps241; 06-07-2017 at 02:06 PM..
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06-07-2017, 02:01 PM
  #62
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One thing we have learned in Winnipeg over the past 3 seasons is we need about 8 or 9 D men to fill our roster. One of the fatal flaws our board (and most boards) has is that people pencil in the starting 6 D men like it's going to stay that way and somehow forget to factor in injuries. There are 328 man games we need to fill our top 4 D spots during the regular season and that will take about 5 D men to pull it off (average of 66 games per defender).

If we are out of a playoff spot (shutter) and Toby is healthy we could get value for him at the trade deadline if he is willing to go to a playoff bound team.

12 months from now things could look very different but for now unless we are adding plug and play D assets this off season I say keep Toby for 2017-18.
I agree with this. If we somehow do get another top 4 D via trade and Toby in the 3rd pair, I would feel better with Toby getting bumped up to the Top 4 if theres an injury rather than Stuart for example. No doubt Enstrom has been declining for years but I rather have him bump up rather than the Stuarts of the world and this being a contract year, he may even elevate his game a bit.

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06-07-2017, 02:05 PM
  #63
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Sorry he is not going to be our #3 LHD next year.....pipe dream that we bring in a top 4 LHD next year. We may bring in a #3 who is younger and they hope can develop into that role, but not a set in stone proven top 4 IMHO...

What good defensive team (not a crappy expansion team) will allow Toby to "showcase" himself that would trade for him at almost 6 mil and guarantee him a top 4 role no questions asked? I don't see it
Not only is that more likely, but probably better for the long term.

I think the best case is keeping Toby for either:
a) trade deadline to gain some meh assets
b) keep at trade deadline as free rental and he retires / goes FA
c) extended at a non-significant (because he's not going to go down to 1M) pay cut

(in no particular order)

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06-07-2017, 02:10 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Not only is that more likely, but probably better for the long term.

I think the best case is keeping Toby for either:
a) trade deadline to gain some meh assets
b) keep at trade deadline as free rental and he retires / goes FA
c) extended at a non-significant (because he's not going to go down to 1M) pay cut

(in no particular order)
One need only watch the Penguins defense struggle to make a pass out of their zone in the finals to realize that decent D assets don't grow on trees. Toby may have declined but he hasn't fallen off a cliff and could well be an important depth piece next season especially if we have a playoff run.

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06-07-2017, 02:20 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
One thing we have learned in Winnipeg over the past 3 seasons is we need about 8 or 9 D men to fill our roster. One of the fatal flaws our board (and most boards) has is that people pencil in the starting 6 D men like it's going to stay that way and somehow forget to factor in injuries. There are 328 man games we need to fill our top 4 D spots during the regular season and that will take about 5 D men to pull it off (average of 66 games per defender).

If we are out of a playoff spot (shutter) and Toby is healthy we could get value for him at the trade deadline if he is willing to go to a playoff bound team.

12 months from now things could look very different but for now unless we are adding plug and play D assets this off season I say keep Toby for 2017-18.
Mean number of games played by a defender ranges as low as mid 60s for 3rd pairing defenders and mid 70s for top pairing defender.

Median is about 5 games higher, due to skew.

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06-07-2017, 02:25 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Mean number of games played by a defender ranges as low as mid 60s for 3rd pairing defenders and mid 70s for top pairing defender.

Median is about 5 games higher, due to skew.
So even if we live at the mean we probably have about 40 + top 4 games to fill and that is assuming Myers can play (big assumption).

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06-07-2017, 02:31 PM
  #67
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https://jetsnation.ca/2017/05/25/pil...rom-2016-2017/

There's a good chance he's still the 4th best defender on the team next year...
Thanks. This pretty much validates what UI have been saying for a while. The Jets are fine going into nest season with Enstrom as their #4.

The Jets main need on D is prospects so they can have some type of succession plan in place for Buff, Enstrom, Myers and possibly Trouba. Giving up assets for top 4 D is among the worst thing they could do, right up there with handing out a long term contract for an older UFA.

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06-07-2017, 02:32 PM
  #68
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How many players have done that? Not waived? It's a very small chance.

The issue I have is when people say matter of factly that Vegas won't do this or won't do that.
Nobody's here has any idea what they will do.
-Dan Hamhuis and the Vancouver fan base want to say Hello 2016 trade deadline.
-Brad Richards and Dallas fan base want to chip in ........2012
- Filpulla and Tampa using his N.T.C. at last year's deadline to stop a transaction b4 eventually getting traded to PHILLY.

The above 3 cases are a mere sample of situations that we are aware of.

In regard to your 2nd paragraph after quoteing me and..... "your issue when people says thing matter of factly"

In my post I said 50/50 chance this may happen. How is this stating matter of fact that Vegas will definitely do something. I was simply stating it was more likely that not ...... if Enstrom waives ..... Vegas will not select him.

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06-07-2017, 03:00 PM
  #69
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A 4% bump vs over 15% without Toby. Would the Penguins be in the finals right now without Sid? I seriously doubt it.

I'm not saying the Jets win more games directly because Enstrom is out, but I do believe he is expendable and that our record without him supports that.


Last edited by AWSAA; 06-07-2017 at 03:05 PM..
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06-07-2017, 03:29 PM
  #70
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A 4% bump vs over 15% without Toby. Would the Penguins be in the finals right now without Sid? I seriously doubt it.

I'm not saying the Jets win more games directly because Enstrom is out, but I do believe he is expendable and that our record without him supports that.
I agree. And I see him getting outmuscled even more next year in the corners. And if we somehow make the playoffs he will get manhandled and may as well be benched IMO. He will not be a good playoff performer.

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06-07-2017, 03:32 PM
  #71
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last year we've seen Stuart, Chiarot, Melchiori, Nogier, Strait in the lineup and Enstrom is the guy y'all complain about? are you for real?

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06-07-2017, 04:03 PM
  #72
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What I don't understand is why some people actually think Enstrom would waive his NMC? Why would he waive to possibly get selected by Vegas and uproot his family and go play for an expansion team?

And we need to keep Myers. He's a really good defensemen who had a tough personal issue the 2nd half of the season. He'll be fine in 2017-18. He's 6'7" and you can't teach that.

Armia, Copp, Dano are all expendable pieces. We go 4 and 4 and make a deal with Vegas to protect a forward (Perreault or Lowry) Chevy feels the need to keep. That's my prediction.

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06-07-2017, 04:04 PM
  #73
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last year we've seen Stuart, Chiarot, Melchiori, Nogier, Strait in the lineup and Enstrom is the guy y'all complain about? are you for real?
Yup.....Having Entrom on our 2nd pairing is the least of this teams worries at the point

We should be more worried about what happens when/if he or Josh get injured...and the players that we move in the fill the void right now...YUK

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06-07-2017, 04:19 PM
  #74
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A 4% bump vs over 15% without Toby. Would the Penguins be in the finals right now without Sid? I seriously doubt it.

I'm not saying the Jets win more games directly because Enstrom is out, but I do believe he is expendable and that our record without him supports that.
Any player is expendable because you can win with or without any player.

But, the record without doesn't support anything.

The Jets, 2011-present, have slightly outscored opponents with Enstrom on the ice slightly (50.49 % of goals controlled by Jets).
The Jets, 2011-present, have been severely outscored by opponents with Enstrom on the bench (47.35 % of goals controlled by Jets).
The difference of Enstrom on ice vs on bench is the third best for the entire team's defenders to ever play (fourth if you look at Byfuglien only as a defender and eliminate forward minutes).

Jets lose with Enstrom dressed during the minutes Enstrom sits on the bench. How does that support anything revolving removal of Enstrom?

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06-07-2017, 05:28 PM
  #75
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Yup.....Having Entrom on our 2nd pairing is the least of this teams worries at the point

We should be more worried about what happens when/if he or Josh get injured...and the players that we move in the fill the void right now...YUK
Agree - although I'd rather he was pushed down to 3rd pair by a better player. But that is really a different story.

The immediate issue with Toby though is magnified by the XD. It would be different if he were a couple of years younger and under contract for a couple of years more. But he is aging out and under contract for only 1 more year. That is not a very good equation compared to 24 YO, team controlled Adam Lowry.

But that is not the real equation if we accept that we have to get to 7+3. Then it is either 1 year of Enstrom or 2 years of injury prone Myers. That would be the choice IF we are determined to go 7+3.

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