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Sabres Expansion draft protection thread

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:05 PM
  #26
Zemgus26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Husko View Post
Here are the current HF selections.


Note: This is not a prediction thread, but a what would you do thread.

Perhaps it's because everyone thinks it's an easy call, but one thing we haven't seen much discussion of recently is what players the Sabres should protect. With expansion list protections due in just a week, would love to hear everyone's final thoughts on who to protect, assuming no trades are made before the draft.

If I get the chance I will try to compile the data in the first thread to see if we have a board consensus.

The pertinent questions, with my answers:

Which protection model would you use?
7-3-1

Which forwards would you protect?
1) O'Reilly
2) Okposo
3) Kane
4) Larsson
5) Girgensons
6) Foligno
7) Carrier

Note: Moulson, Ennis, and Des are exposed players with contracts

Which defensemen would you protect?
1) Risto
2) McCabe
3) Bogosian

Note: Georges and Falk are exposed players with contracts
Note2: I protect Bogosian rather than hope he gets taken. I still think he has positive value and believe he could bounce back in the right system (though I wouldn't fret over exposing him if we got someone better)

Which goaltender would you protect?
Lehner

Note: Ulmark exposed, and I don't think it's a huge deal

Under your protection model, who do you think Vegas takes?
Georges, he could potentially be their captain
Would go with this protection list as well. Think Vegas would take Ullmark though as a young waiver exempt goalie with potential over cap dumps/useless depth players.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:06 PM
  #27
DJN21
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I'm praying for moulson. That is all.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:19 PM
  #28
boots electric
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on bogosian, protecting him comes down to two things for me

1) a belief he will rebound post-bylsma

2) a belief that this team will be in a position to contend within three years

if he does rebound, he's going to want to be paid a similar amount of money on his next contract. and unless he rebounds big-time, there's no way in hell botterill hands out that sort of money. this means that if you want to get any sort of contribution from him, you need the team to be making the playoffs within the next three years.

i think that he rebounds a little bit, but not enough to offset his current/future contract. i also don't think the team will be in a position to seriously contend until maybe the final year of his contract. you could argue that holding out to him and hoping for a rebound means you could potentially recoup assets for him in a trade, but i think the odds of that are relatively unlikely, and i'd just as soon rip off the bandaid and part ways with him now. he just doesn't have a future here, and unless he all the sudden becomes a consistent 2nd paring defenseman, you're not going to get anything of value for him.

i protect risto/mccabe/falk and pray that one of moulson, ennis, or bogo gets taken

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:32 PM
  #29
Tyler2829
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Bogo is the only one out of him, Moulson, Ennis and Gorges who has any value. And also the one who has the most likely chance of turning his game around at least a little bit. Not sure why you'd want to just give him away for free.

I think his athleticism would always have a team willing to give him a chance.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:32 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Husko View Post
Other than exposing Bogo what would be the rest of your list?
ROR
Okposo
Kane
Girgs
Carrier
Foligno
Larsson


Risto
McCabe
Falk

Lehner

If Buffalo can do what they can to keep Vegas away from Ullmark, we're more than likely getting rid of one of Gorges, Bogosian or Ennis. Next summer, this team is going to need that cap space.

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06-12-2017, 09:40 PM
  #31
is the answer jesus
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The protected players list is a no brainer. The only way Bogosian should be exposed is if we make a trade for another defenseman pre-expansion draft. You don't just jettison him without having a replacement lined up.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:43 PM
  #32
ende
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
Which protection model would you use?

8-1, just aren't many people worth protecting


Which forwards would you protect?
1) O'Reilly
2) Okposo
3) Larsson
4) Girgensons
5) Foligno
6) Carrier

*exposes Evander, Ennis, Moulson, Des. Kane with a year remaining and his history has a fluctuating value; inopportune cold streak, injury or negative headlines will tank his trade value so best to move on before it happens. His reputation may keep Vegas away.

Which defensemen would you protect?
1) Risto
2) McCabe

*exposes Bogo, Gorges, Falk. Bogo has a habit of being injured and has a large enough contract to consider; it counters his potential progress enough to drop him into afterthought territory

Which goaltender would you protect?

*Ullmark. He's younger, cheaper, healthier than Lehner. There will also be a better selection of goalies exposed that should make Robin less desirable to Vegas, also sends a message to Peterson.

Under your protection model, who do you think Vegas takes?

*Gorges. He is captain material for a misfit expansion squad; old vet on a short contract that the coach won't need to babysit.
This is absolutely insane. You would be fired immediately.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:47 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by is the answer jesus View Post
The protected players list is a no brainer. The only way Bogosian should be exposed is if we make a trade for another defenseman pre-expansion draft. You don't just jettison him without having a replacement lined up.
You do if you recognize he's awful and costs a fortune. You don't just save that money this year...you get our of the terrible contract for good.

But they wouldn't take him anyway. His deal is bad.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:50 PM
  #34
Meichel Kane
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Using the 8-1 system to protect 6 forwards and 2 defensemen when you could protect 7 forwards and 3 defensemen is probably the worst idea I've read on this site.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:52 PM
  #35
ende
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
You do if you recognize he's awful and costs a fortune. You don't just save that money this year...you get our of the terrible contract for good.

But they wouldn't take him anyway. His deal is bad.

Bogo is the only one of those three (inc Moulson and Ennis) who has a realistic chance of increasing his trade value under new coaching. For that reason alone you protect him. In the mean time, he's fine as a 5th/6th defender. His salary is irrelevant.

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06-12-2017, 09:52 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
When we are good...which one would assume you'd think would happen within Bogosians term...do you honestly think he's in your top 4? Because I don't think there is a chance in hell. If he is...you aren't that good. And he makes way too much to be on the bottom pair.

And I don't think they'd take him if you expose him anyway. His contract sucks.
June 2017 is not the time you need to solve Bogosian's value vs. his contract cost. There are poorer values to shed now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by is the answer jesus View Post
The protected players list is a no brainer. The only way Bogosian should be exposed is if we make a trade for another defenseman pre-expansion draft. You don't just jettison him without having a replacement lined up.
Exactly. Of the other pariahs, - Ennis, Moulson, Des, Gorges - Bogosian is the one whom you can say has the greatest chance to do better under a new coach/system.

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:53 PM
  #37
Kublakhan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
You do if you recognize he's awful and costs a fortune. You don't just save that money this year...you get our of the terrible contract for good.

But they wouldn't take him anyway. His deal is bad.
Give Vegas a pick they would take him, I would like to see them take Ennis though..

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Old
06-12-2017, 09:54 PM
  #38
ende
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brian_griffin View Post
June 2017 is not the time you need to solve Bogosian's value vs. his contract cost. There are poorer values to shed now.
Incredibly well stated.

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Old
06-12-2017, 10:00 PM
  #39
is the answer jesus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
You do if you recognize he's awful and costs a fortune. You don't just save that money this year...you get our of the terrible contract for good.

But they wouldn't take him anyway. His deal is bad.
Vegas very well could pass on him given the options they'll have from other teams or they could see a 26 year old player with only 3 years left on his contract that could have been stifled playing in an absolute **** system. I wouldn't presume anything either way. His contract isn't some huge albatros for this team anyways. He's not on the wrong side of 30 and locked up for an eternity like Seabrook is. It's 3 years and he wont prevent us from re-signing our important pieces moving forward and there's still potential for him to be a solid 2nd pairing guy. We arent in a position to just drop him just to save money without having a replacement for him. Trying to push one of Ennis or Moulson out of here would be much more beneficial.

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06-12-2017, 10:01 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
You do if you recognize he's awful and costs a fortune. You don't just save that money this year...you get our of the terrible contract for good.

But they wouldn't take him anyway. His deal is bad.
While retaining other bad contracts which are guaranteed to only get worse, and have fewer to zero takers.

2017-18 matters not for cap.

$5.1+M Bogo as a bottom-pair defender 16-17 min TOI is a better value spend than $5M of Moulson or $4.6M of Ennis playing 12 min TOI on 4th line and #2PP.

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Old
06-12-2017, 10:02 PM
  #41
Husko
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
You do if you recognize he's awful and costs a fortune. You don't just save that money this year...you get our of the terrible contract for good.

But they wouldn't take him anyway. His deal is bad.
Former high pick, still young, signed long term, cap space isn't an issue...

I'd take him if I were them. Best case scenario he figures it out, thrives with big minutes, and you have yourself a solid top 4 Dman with high end potential. Worst case scenario he's overpaid for a few years while the cap is meaningless to you. That's a risk any team should take.

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Old
06-12-2017, 10:22 PM
  #42
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Can't LV go after Kulikov or Franson that will count as our pick?

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Old
06-12-2017, 10:26 PM
  #43
is the answer jesus
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Originally Posted by Sabre the Win View Post
Can't LV go after Kulikov or Franson that will count as our pick?
I mean they could... Or they could just take something potentially useful like Ullmark and wait until free agency starts.

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Old
06-12-2017, 10:44 PM
  #44
1972
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Bogo is going to be so much better next year.

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06-12-2017, 10:48 PM
  #45
Ace
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Bogo is going to be so much better next year.
I bet we can find this said every single year since he was drafted.

He. Won't.

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Old
06-12-2017, 10:52 PM
  #46
Husko
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I bet we can find this said every single year since he was drafted.

He. Won't.
He wasn't bad before Bylsma. He was fine on the jets, although at times underwhelming, and looked really good during his half season with Nolan.

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Old
06-13-2017, 01:44 AM
  #47
Moskau
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He wasn't bad before Bylsma. He was fine on the jets, although at times underwhelming
He was slightly better than he showed last year but even on the Jets he was carried more by his partner than virtually any other defensemen in the league.

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Old
06-13-2017, 04:21 AM
  #48
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I'm paying off Vegas to not take Ullmark and I'm getting to take in Moulson's or Ennis's contract.

If it's Tyler then I buy out Moulson's and deal with 4 years of dead cap space.

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Old
06-13-2017, 06:54 AM
  #49
makeitburn
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Bogo doesn't get exposed unless you make a trade for a defenseman. Period.

All posters who mock-up otherwise, or do some sort of 8-1 exposing Kane as well, should be ignored.

It's surreal how people want to screw up the opportunity to rid ourselves of Ennis or Moulson (or both!) for free, as opposed to very likely losing a defenseman on a no-depth defense team that has every chance to look good like he did before the Bylsma treatment, and is only being expected to play 2nd or 3rd pair minutes.

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Old
06-13-2017, 07:03 AM
  #50
Ace
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He didn't look good before Bylsma. On two different teams.

The short sightedness of people is incredible. You aren't going to want him and his contract in this team in the future,

The future is now.

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