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Sabres re-sign Linus Ullmark (2 years, $750,000 AAV)

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Old
06-13-2017, 07:14 PM
  #26
Eichel15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabresfansince1980 View Post
It all depends on stuff we can't predict yet. LV isn't going to select players only based on their usefulness. They have a cap requirement to reach, and they have to fill specific roster position requirements. LV's selection process will be relative to several factors, and Ullmark may not fit regardless of his one-way or two-way salary.
Why are people still bringing this up?!? As if it is hard to reach the cap floor. They could easily pull an Arizona. EASILY. It is a non factor in the expansion draft.

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06-13-2017, 07:29 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Eichel15 View Post
Why are people still bringing this up?!? As if it is hard to reach the cap floor. They could easily pull an Arizona. EASILY. It is a non factor in the expansion draft.
Except there's a minimum amount of salary that Vegas must add in the expansion draft. It shouldn't be a hard number for them to reach, but they do need to reach it.

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06-13-2017, 07:49 PM
  #28
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1 way deal?
I still don't see why that would stop them from taking him.

I doubt they will be a budget team right out of the gate.

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06-13-2017, 08:23 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
I still don't see why that would stop them from taking him.

I doubt they will be a budget team right out of the gate.
Nobody is saying that it's a guarantee that a one-way deal definitely keeps Vegas from taking Ullmark. But it certainly reduces the probability that they do so. Vegas may not want to put a $750k goaltender in the AHL, nevermind that Ullmark is far from a sure bet at the NHL level. On the other hand, if he just accepted his QO, his minors salary would be <$100k, I believe - that makes putting Ullmark in the AHL far more palatable.

At this point, McPhee may be thinking it'll just be easier to sign a two-way deal with a UFA tweener AHL/NHL goaltender (JF Berube, Enroth, et al.) and not pay Ullmark a NHL salary to play in the AHL.

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06-13-2017, 08:23 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Eichel15 View Post
Why are people still bringing this up?!? As if it is hard to reach the cap floor. They could easily pull an Arizona. EASILY. It is a non factor in the expansion draft.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dotcommunism View Post
Except there's a minimum amount of salary that Vegas must add in the expansion draft. It shouldn't be a hard number for them to reach, but they do need to reach it.
Why do you assume I meant that it's going to be hard for LV to reach the cap requirement? Where has this been a repeat topic anyway...that I'm bringing up again?? I pointed out that there will be several issues LV will base their selections on, not just how good a player is compared to other exposed players on a certain team. Like dotcom says, it shouldn't be hard but it's a factor. Take a pill or something.

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06-13-2017, 08:33 PM
  #31
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Isn't there a requirement for buffalo to expose a signed goalie?

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06-13-2017, 08:42 PM
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Originally Posted by TehDoak View Post
Isn't there a requirement for buffalo to expose a signed goalie?
Yes. Ullmark satisfies this, assuming we protect Lehner.

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06-13-2017, 09:12 PM
  #33
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RFAs count as signed for exposure purposes, so Ulmark satisfied that requirement without being signed.

I don't think this deal moves things one iota on whether Vegas takes him.

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06-13-2017, 10:06 PM
  #34
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They must have a deal in place with LV. LV selection has already been determined...Moulson or Ennis. My guess is we give them Minnys second rounder.

No way they'd expose Lehner...He has way more value than Ullmark, as a proven NHL goalie. Only other explanation for the Ullmark contract is they trade Lehner to Calgary or something.

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06-13-2017, 10:27 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tim212 View Post
They must have a deal in place with LV. LV selection has already been determined...Moulson or Ennis. My guess is we give them Minnys second rounder.

No way they'd expose Lehner...He has way more value than Ullmark, as a proven NHL goalie. Only other explanation for the Ullmark contract is they trade Lehner to Calgary or something.
Or him being signed has no bearing on the expansion situation?

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06-14-2017, 12:59 AM
  #36
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Beyond Moulson's family relationship to McPhee I think he's a player who's actually quite useful to an expansion team in its first years. They won't get many forwards who have shown they can score in the NHL, Moulson's a older vet with mentorship skills, took Eichel into his home. He would definitely be a PP guy for Vegas. Moulson isn't a write-off, Ennis may be though there is still a chance Ennis gets past his injuries and becomes a somewhat effective NHL player again for several years.

I think a deal has been or will be made with Vegas to protect Ullmark. He's worth a 3rd round pick at least. If Vegas didn't exist I doubt many people here would be pleased if Ullmark was traded for a 2nd round pick in this year's draft.

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06-14-2017, 01:11 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by BiPolarBear View Post
Beyond Moulson's family relationship to McPhee I think he's a player who's actually quite useful to an expansion team in its first years. They won't get many forwards who have shown they can score in the NHL, Moulson's a older vet with mentorship skills, took Eichel into his home. He would definitely be a PP guy for Vegas. Moulson isn't a write-off, Ennis may be though there is still a chance Ennis gets past his injuries and becomes a somewhat effective NHL player again for several years.

I think a deal has been or will be made with Vegas to protect Ullmark. He's worth a 3rd round pick at least. If Vegas didn't exist I doubt many people here would be pleased if Ullmark was traded for a 2nd round pick in this year's draft.
If you can trade Ullmark for a second this year, you do it and don't think twice.

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06-14-2017, 02:12 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by SundherDome View Post
If you can trade Ullmark for a second this year, you do it and don't think twice.
Absolutely ridiculous - to trade a young prospect, a goalie no less, 5 years of solid development in who has already played 20+ games in the NHL competently for an 18 year old 2nd round pick that according to historical stats has a less than 50% chance of reaching the point where Ullmark is TODAY.

Go back to 2012, Ullmark's draft year and look at the 2nd round picks - that Jake McCabe leads in games played by a large margin tells you what you need to know about the real value of 2nd round picks, they're a 70% probability to be busts.


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06-14-2017, 02:25 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by SundherDome View Post
If you can trade Ullmark for a second this year, you do it and don't think twice.
You are absolutely out to lunch.

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06-14-2017, 06:25 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by BiPolarBear View Post
Absolutely ridiculous - to trade a young prospect, a goalie no less, 5 years of solid development in who has already played 20+ games in the NHL competently for an 18 year old 2nd round pick that according to historical stats has a less than 50% chance of reaching the point where Ullmark is TODAY.

Go back to 2012, Ullmark's draft year and look at the 2nd round picks - that Jake McCabe leads in games played by a large margin tells you what you need to know about the real value of 2nd round picks, they're a 70% probability to be busts.
Not disputing the value of 2nd round picks but, to be accurate, McCabe is 4th in games played - 41 games behind the leader from that round. 17 picks have not played in the NHL yet. 23 picks have played 15 games or less.

I looked at the third round from that year - 13 picks have not played in the NHL. 21 picks have played 15 games or less.


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06-14-2017, 06:57 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Dex View Post
Not disputing the value of 2nd round picks but, to be accurate, McCabe is 4th in games played - 41 games behind the leader from that round. 17 picks have not played in the NHL yet. 23 picks have played 15 games or less.

I looked at the third round from that year - 13 picks have not played in the NHL. 21 picks have played 15 games or less.
doh - i didn't scroll down on hockeydb enough. but the point stands, looks like 7-8 players will have NHL careers, 10 at most. I think 200 games in the NHL is the minimum standard for defining if a player had an NHL career.

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06-14-2017, 07:44 AM
  #42
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Originally Posted by jcbeze View Post
He won't be selected tho, it's almost certain we make a deal to save him
Is there any evidence to back this up.

If I'm Vegas I take Ullmark from buffalo as he is by some margin the most useful player we expose.

If I'm buffalo I likely don't make a 'deal' with Vegas unless a) it only costs a very low value asset or b) it involves Vegas taking one of our bad contracts.

Looking at it once again from Vegas pov why would they either 1)accept a very low value asset or 2)take one of our bad contracts? They may as well just take the 'free' asset in Ullmark and move on.

Hopefully I'm wrong about this.

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06-14-2017, 07:50 AM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Rowley Birkin View Post
Is there any evidence to back this up.

If I'm Vegas I take Ullmark from buffalo as he is by some margin the most useful player we expose.

If I'm buffalo I likely don't make a 'deal' with Vegas unless a) it only costs a very low value asset or b) it involves Vegas taking one of our bad contracts.

Looking at it once again from Vegas pov why would they either 1)accept a very low value asset or 2)take one of our bad contracts? They may as well just take the 'free' asset in Ullmark and move on.

Hopefully I'm wrong about this.
Not if you consider that they can sign Franson or Kulikov during the free agency window and that will count as the player selected from Buffalo. Both players would be more useful to Vegas than a $750k AHL starting goalie.

The idea that it's Ullmark, then 50 feet of crap, then everyone else we'll expose concept isn't accurate. There are other options.

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06-14-2017, 08:18 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by SundherDome View Post
If you can trade Ullmark for a second this year, you do it and don't think twice.
Why? What sense does that make value wise and organizationally?

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06-14-2017, 08:45 AM
  #45
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Originally Posted by BiPolarBear View Post
doh - i didn't scroll down on hockeydb enough. but the point stands, looks like 7-8 players will have NHL careers, 10 at most. I think 200 games in the NHL is the minimum standard for defining if a player had an NHL career.

And Zemgus is 7th with number of games played at 277 and 9th in points with 86.

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06-14-2017, 09:22 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabresfansince1980 View Post
Why do you assume I meant that it's going to be hard for LV to reach the cap requirement? Where has this been a repeat topic anyway...that I'm bringing up again?? I pointed out that there will be several issues LV will base their selections on, not just how good a player is compared to other exposed players on a certain team. Like dotcom says, it shouldn't be hard but it's a factor. Take a pill or something.
People ARE bringing it up. Like it is going to be difficult. Just because you're not seeing it, doesn't mean it isn't there. You take your own pill. It's not a factor for the GM other than if the people he wants don't add up to that number. Which is very unlikely.

The Expansion Draft rules state Las Vegas must spend at least 60% of the NHL’s salary cap, approximately $43.8 million, in the draft. That number is about $10-15 million short of the salary cap floor.

43.8/30=1.46M per player average. Seriously, they aren't going to be picking all AHL players. This is a non issue.


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06-14-2017, 11:02 AM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eichel15 View Post
People ARE bringing it up. Like it is going to be difficult. Just because you're not seeing it, doesn't mean it isn't there. You take your own pill. It's not a factor for the GM other than if the people he wants don't add up to that number. Which is very unlikely.

The Expansion Draft rules state Las Vegas must spend at least 60% of the NHLís salary cap, approximately $43.8 million, in the draft. That number is about $10-15 million short of the salary cap floor.

43.8/30=1.46M per player average. Seriously, they aren't going to be picking all AHL players. This is a non issue.
Well then since this is such a huge issue that's been tearing you up inside, I will definitely make certain to not add to your growing frustration after all the mass hysteria that I've apparently missed lately on these boards. This will be the last time I ever tell someone that on-ice value won't be the only factor in LVs' selection process. I can forward you my therapist's number if that helps.

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06-14-2017, 11:06 AM
  #48
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Why? What sense does that make value wise and organizationally?
Goaltender trade values are typically very low. Rarely does a goalie get moved for a second round pick or better. If there was a year to have multiple 2nd's this is it as teams may be more susceptible to trading back as the draft is not considered "great". We have the depth to sustain losing him. You can re-sign Nilsson and let Johansson and an AHL goalie/Kasdorf run the show in Rochester. If Peterson signs it makes it that much easier. We should be drafting a goalie this year anyway, so you are not adding the burden of need. Objectively, if you can add a second for a run of the mill piece, you do it.

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06-14-2017, 11:13 AM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eichel15 View Post
People ARE bringing it up. Like it is going to be difficult. Just because you're not seeing it, doesn't mean it isn't there. You take your own pill. It's not a factor for the GM other than if the people he wants don't add up to that number. Which is very unlikely.

The Expansion Draft rules state Las Vegas must spend at least 60% of the NHLís salary cap, approximately $43.8 million, in the draft. That number is about $10-15 million short of the salary cap floor.

43.8/30=1.46M per player average. Seriously, they aren't going to be picking all AHL players. This is a non issue.
Exactly. Even less an issue if LVGK take Clarkson from CBJ.

~38.5/29=1.33M per player average.

Quote:
Originally Posted by REDDAWG
Not if you consider that they can sign Franson or Kulikov during the free agency window and that will count as the player selected from Buffalo. Both players would be more useful to Vegas than a $750k AHL starting goalie.

The idea that it's Ullmark, then 50 feet of crap, then everyone else we'll expose concept isn't accurate. There are other options.
Good point. No, VERY good point. Franson/Kulikov (even Gionta - a snowball's chance in the hell-like heat of Las Vegas) are under-the-radar options which were brought up when the ExpDraft rules were announced in the spring, but haven't had much discussion since this thread opened.

Both Franson and Kulikov (and even Gionta) are more valuable options for BUF in their '17-18 lineup than are Moulson, Ennis, Deslauriers. So one would believe they are also the more valuable options for LVGK.

Taking the majority view that Bogosian is protected, if LVGK doesn't want to take Ullmark, and is unwilling to take the Sabres sweetener for Ennis or Moulson, then LVGK may actually prefer to pursue Franson or Kulikov.

Won't impact the Sabres protection list, but any pending UFAs who are signed by LVGK may indeed influence the inter-team movements the remainder of June; what deals happen and which are blunted.

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06-14-2017, 11:20 AM
  #50
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Originally Posted by SundherDome View Post
Goaltender trade values are typically very low. Rarely does a goalie get moved for a second round pick or better. If there was a year to have multiple 2nd's this is it as teams may be more susceptible to trading back as the draft is not considered "great". We have the depth to sustain losing him. You can re-sign Nilsson and let Johansson and an AHL goalie/Kasdorf run the show in Rochester. If Peterson signs it makes it that much easier. We should be drafting a goalie this year anyway, so you are not adding the burden of need. Objectively, if you can add a second for a run of the mill piece, you do it.
So you want Kasdorf to run with the reigns in Rochester? when he can't even float in the ECHL.

He alone is probably the reason Elmira folded

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