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Trade Rumours and Proposals Thread: Frozen, The Vegas Musical..... Draft 6/21

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06-18-2017, 01:48 AM
  #1
guymez
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Trade Rumours and Proposals Thread: Frozen, The Vegas Musical..... Draft 6/21

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paralyzer008 View Post
Even though I think it's time to move on from Eberle, I do believe in shooting percentage being a regression thing and Eberle is a 13% career shooter.

(PS before I get into this, I know Ebs had 51 pts, but these calculations only account for 5v5 + 5v4 and don't get into any other situation like 6v4).

If you take his last 3 years, average it and then drop the percent .05 (accounted because the player is aging), he'd be projected to shoot 11.9% next year which is still under his usual average.

That's 25 goals if he shoots 200 shots again.

I'd still expect the same 33 5v5 points, his style of play is more of a perimeter and I don't see him suddenly becoming more dynamic. It appears he got most jipped on the PP, only posting a 95.7 PDO and only shooting 8%. His worst before that on the PP was 13% in his rookie year.

The question is: Why did he tank so hard on the PP this year? If it's just a matter of bad luck and not getting the bounces, I'd expect those numbers to correct themselves and that's probably an extra 10 points right there. 13 PP points becomes 23 PP points.

If I'm a team acquiring Eberle, I'm studying how he can fit on my PP to bounce back.

If you want to predict Eberle STRAIGHT off of math, it comes out to about:

25 goals, 31 assists, 56 points. Throw in a few points while on 6v4 and he could be at 60 points again healthy.

I think that has value. Whether or not he can produce in the playoffs is currently a wildcard. His first one was awful.
Nice that you took the time to post this....very reasonable projection IMO.
57 points would put Eberle at .7 ppg.


Last edited by Bryanbryoil: 06-18-2017 at 03:04 AM.
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06-18-2017, 01:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Hiphopopotamus View Post
Depended on which 2nd line was playing, too much variation to define it. I personally thought the Nuges/Ebs line combination lacked offense.
Lucic-Nuge-Ebs were the 2nd line for 90% of that stretch. Ebs I think had 19 points in 26, 20 for Lucic and 17 for Nuge. Other than that period they were trash. It sucked cause I hoped they were gunna play like that in the playoffs and really would've given us a big boost against Anahiem.

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06-18-2017, 01:53 AM
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I'd expect about 50-55 again for Eberle next year only I think they will be more spread out hopefully so he's not just mooching points off like 3-4 teams almost exclusively. We need more guys to show up on more nights next year, can't just have McDavid/Draisaitl/Talbot be the only three that consistently show up, good teams do not operate like that, other guys have to grow some testicular fortitude and find ways to get on the score sheet on more nights.

I think mentally he thought it would be easy once McDavid got here, then realized it wasn't, then started to grip the stick too tight, then tried to be useful in other ways but 8 years of horrible development and no emphasis on anything other than scoring has rendered the rest of his game painfully inept.

It's like watching 120 pound kid desperately trying to bench press 200 pounds ... you haven't put in the work, man. You're not going to be able to lift that. Like wise, Eberle simply cannot contribute physically or in a forecheck or cycling ... it's just not there for him. Part of that failure is on us as an organization but part of it is on him, he never developed the "hockey muscles" to do anything else.


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06-18-2017, 01:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
They'll ask for RNH for Dumba. I think Chia's hands are tied on this, he's too scared to take away the option of McDavid + Draisaitl from McLellan that he can't deal RNH unless a center is coming back, and we can't realistically be asking for a good center + a Matt Dumba for Ryan Nugent Hopkins, he has no where near that kind of value.

McDavid + Draisaitl being so good together is basically RNH's meal ticket here ... until Puljujarvi develops. The funny thing is when that golden ticket came up one of the most estatic things about it was the thought that we wouldn't have to worry about center depth for like 10 years. Tsk. Tsk.
Manson/Vatanen/Dumba/Brodin+Karlsson for RNH+Nurse is a good deal for both teams.

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06-18-2017, 02:02 AM
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Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
Manson/Vatanen/Dumba/Brodin+Karlsson for RNH+Nurse is a good deal for both teams.
1. That seems like an overpay by us because of the Nurse inclusion, although I'm well aware you find Nurse to have less value than most HF posters do. I would tell you to use the Reinhart + Mueller deals as inspiration for what Nurse would likely command right now.

2. Those 4 D are completely different from each other and all have their own valuations. Dumba couldn't even return Nuge alone last summer, Vatanen is too much of a specialist to barely land Nuge, Brodin wasn't even asked of by Chiarelli so I'm unsure of value there, Manson probably is the closest there to landing Nuge + Nurse (strange thing is Ducks might say no to that).

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On a separate note from that post, I also dug into RNH statistically, also had a low shooting percentage but due to his role on the team, I'm not sure if he'll ever get the minutes to be a big point producer again. I think it's fair to expect a bit more than 20 goals next year but he might stick around the 40-45 point mark again.

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06-18-2017, 02:07 AM
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Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
Manson/Vatanen/Dumba/Brodin+Karlsson for RNH+Nurse is a good deal for both teams.
I think RNH and our 1st would be the most I'd part with for that. No need to deal Nurse to a team in our division. RNH for Dumba, Ebs for 3C, sign Foo/Williams, or trade from our D prospect surplus for a RW.

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06-18-2017, 02:09 AM
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I dont think that redundancy matters. Loading up on quality and then using that to create balance is how I expect them to operate.
Seeing what guys like Seth Jones and Adam Larsson fetched via trade (hell even Sergachev) should show McPhee that good defensemen are a premium value wise. If I were building a team from the ground up I would focus on Centers, defense and a #1 goaltender while also loading up on picks to stock the cupboard.

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06-18-2017, 02:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Jet Walters View Post
I think RNH and our 1st would be the most I'd part with for that. No need to deal Nurse to a team in our division. RNH for Dumba, Ebs for 3C, sign Foo/Williams, or trade from our D prospect surplus for a RW.
I think Chia is too gun shy to move RNH until he knows McLellan has a rock solid option on McDavid's RW.

Otherwise RNH needs to stay so McLellan has the option of McDavid-Draisaitl.

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06-18-2017, 02:18 AM
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If McPhee were smart, he would stockpile on defencemen (Manson, Brodin, CDH, Miller, Barberio, Demers) and goalies (Raanta, Grubauer, Korpisalo, Fleury) and flip those to teams hurting for defence and goaltending (Flyers, Winnipeg, etc.) They can get some nice pieces from those teams.

Though I don't think he wants to build a competitive team at all tbh.

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06-18-2017, 02:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Seeing what guys like Seth Jones and Adam Larsson fetched via trade (hell even Sergachev) should show McPhee that good defensemen are a premium value wise. If I were building a team from the ground up I would focus on Centers, defense and a #1 goaltender while also loading up on picks to stock the cupboard.
I agree. I think that dmen are the key though.
I am actually quite interested to see how this plays out...not just for the Oilers but for Vegas as well.

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06-18-2017, 02:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Seeing what guys like Seth Jones and Adam Larsson fetched via trade (hell even Sergachev) should show McPhee that good defensemen are a premium value wise. If I were building a team from the ground up I would focus on Centers, defense and a #1 goaltender while also loading up on picks to stock the cupboard.
This is why I'm not opposed to a Ryan Murray.

Sure he hasn't developed perfectly, but there is a chance he breaks out here, and then you have a nice pile of riches on your back end who are all young.

The thing is you have to be proactive and sometimes take a risk on players like that before they break out.

We probably could have gotten Adam Larsson for Nail Yakupov if we had the balls to take a chance a couple of years earlier ... we didn't and obviously we had to overpay.

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06-18-2017, 02:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
This is why I'm not opposed to a Ryan Murray.

Sure he hasn't developed, but there is a chance he breaks out here, and then you have a nice pile of riches on your back end who are all young.

The thing is you have to be proactive and sometimes take a risk on players like that before they break out.

We probably could have gotten Adam Larsson for Nail Yakupov if we had the balls to take a chance a couple of years earlier ... we didn't and we paid dearly for that.
I doubt that Larsson would've been the same d-man if we got him back then. Scott Stevens was huge for his development.

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06-18-2017, 02:38 AM
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Well they could have drafted Larsson over RNH in that draft as well. Personally I was leaning that way as Larsson was "the next Lidstrom" ... and I favoured Couturier over RNH as well in that draft.

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06-18-2017, 02:38 AM
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I doubt that Larsson would've been the same d-man if we got him back then. Scott Stevens was huge for his development.
Well yeah you gotta take some chances and you need to have good development. But it's not like Adam Larsson is some shocking surprise, to be honest he was hyped to be more than he is even now in his draft year a lot of people were saying he was going to be a slam dunk no.1 D with big time offensive creativity.

He might be a tad better to be honest if he had been here, I think those early years in New Jersey really killed his offensive potential so I don't think being drafted there was particularly good for him. He might be closer to a Hedman tier guy if he had gone somewhere that encouraged his offensive potential earlier on while still having the ability to shelter him.


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06-18-2017, 02:56 AM
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Well they could have drafted Larsson over RNH in that draft as well. Personally I was leaning that way as Larsson was "the next Lidstrom" ... and I favoured Couturier over RNH as well in that draft.
And he would've been thrown to the wolves, most players wouldn't have fared well thrown into the ****show that was our team back then. Couturier would've been eaten alive due to a lack of offense.

Quote:
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Well yeah you gotta take some chances and you need to have good development. But it's not like Adam Larsson is some shocking surprise, to be honest he was hyped to be more than he is even now in his draft year a lot of people were saying he was going to be a slam dunk no.1 D with big time offensive creativity.

He might be a tad better to be honest if he had been here, I think those early years in New Jersey really killed his offensive potential so I don't think being drafted there was particularly good for him. He might be closer to a Hedman tier guy if he had gone somewhere that encouraged his offensive potential earlier on while still having the ability to shelter him.
He simply does not have the skating or skills of Hedman. Larsson showed very well as a 16 year old but his offensive upside was already a bit in question in his draft season or else he would've been in the conversation for 1st overall by the draft and IIRC he was not.

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06-18-2017, 03:00 AM
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I dont want to speak for McVirginoil but I dont think he was suggesting that Eberle played well.
He was just refuting Soundwaves claim (using a very useful stat) that Eberle was in a 4 year regression.
He must be using all situation points which include PP time. Sure you can do that but it hides the clear ES regression which is real and undeniable. Ebs picked up some PP points this past year - problem is - half were of the 2nd assist variety which literally anyone can produce.

Ebs production HAS been declining for 5 years - but it's not all bad - a lot of it over the past two years is as a result of actually trying to play defense. That's the issue. Ebs cannot play solid defense AND put up top line points at the same time like a true elite player is capable of. He CANNOT produce in the playoffs when space and time disappear and the big boy hockey violence factor goes way up. Yeah he may go to Vegas and score 70 points, but he will be playing river hockey to do it, and this is of little use to a good team.

You would think it would sink in after 10 years of losing while watching small one dimensional player like Ebs put up points that this approach is totally futile. The Oilers got better because they learned how to PREVENT goals which is just as important as scoring goals. Elite teams both score AND defend. It's not rocket science.

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06-18-2017, 03:06 AM
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And he would've been thrown to the wolves, most players wouldn't have fared well thrown into the ****show that was our team back then. Couturier would've been eaten alive due to a lack of offense.



He simply does not have the skating or skills of Hedman. Larsson showed very well as a 16 year old but his offensive upside was already a bit in question in his draft season or else he would've been in the conversation for 1st overall by the draft and IIRC he was not.
Yeah still there was a good deal of hype on Larsson.

Hedman - 25 points in 82 SEL games

Larsson - 26 points in 86 SEL games

But yeah Larsson was kind of unusual in that he was actually way better than Hedman in his first SEL season but then was a bit underwhelming in his second season (though I think he maybe missed some games here?).

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06-18-2017, 03:08 AM
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He must be using all situation points which include PP time. Sure you can do that but it hides the clear ES regression which is real and undeniable. Ebs picked up some PP points this past year - problem is - half were of the 2nd assist variety which literally anyone can produce.

Ebs production HAS been declining for 5 years - but it's not all bad - a lot of it over the past two years is as a result of actually trying to play defense. That's the issue. Ebs cannot play solid defense AND put up top line points at the same time like a true elite player is capable of. He CANNOT produce in the playoffs when space and time disappear and the big boy hockey violence factor goes way up. Yeah he may go to Vegas and score 70 points, but he will be playing river hockey to do it, and this is of little use to a good team.

You would think it would sink in after 10 years of losing while watching small one dimensional player like Ebs put up points that this approach is totally futile. The Oilers got better because they learned how to PREVENT goals which is just as important as scoring goals. Elite teams both score AND defend. It's not rocket science.
No the stats I used was at even strength not at all situations, just like when I examine all my stats with Eberle. So there is no ES regression

Yea you pay players to defend and pay players to score, it's very hard to find players efficient in both

Oilers defence isn't actually good, it's very mediocre backstopped by a goalie having a career year. Oilers allow ridiculous chances and that shows with Talbot's high GSAA/60, he saved our bacon a lot this season


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06-18-2017, 03:16 AM
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Yeah still there was a good deal of hype on Larsson.

Hedman - 25 points in 82 SEL games

Larsson - 26 points in 86 SEL games

But yeah Larsson was kind of unusual in that he was actually way better than Hedman in his first SEL season but then was a bit underwhelming in his second season (though I think he maybe missed some games here?).
Larsson did have a ton of hype and much of that was because of how good he was in his draft -1 season. He didn't really take it to another level in his draft season which is why he kind of was like Couturier in that regard.

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06-18-2017, 03:28 AM
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We heard rumours of Chia being after Dumba a year ago at the draft. If Vegas is getting Vatanen do they really need Dumba too? Seems a little redundant as both guys should be on the 1st unit PP. Maybe we'll see RNH for Dumba + or even Eberle and a small + might get it done.
I might bite on Ebs + for Dumba but not RNH. There is a really good chance that Benning would be as good or better than Dumba if given the pp time. Staples made a good point today about having to make space for Nurse and Benning to develop. So there is an argument to be made that getting another guy on a one year deal to allow Nurse/Benning to be sheltered a bit more is sensible. If we look good at the trade deadline then load up with a rental.

So we don't necessarily need a dman for Ebs. A bigger young RW like Richie or Nichuskin from Dallas might work - or a young center like Larkin. Lots of options out there. I'm not really very worried about replacing Ebs offense. The PP points are going to happen on this team, and the young guys developing will cover most of the ES production. Bring in one of the UFA RW who are left hanging into July if need be on a one year deal. Wing is a pretty easy problem to fix.

One more thing.....I watched the first period of G6 against the ducks last night for fun and then P1 of opening night at Rogers against the flames. This team took GIANT strides this year and the early season team was a shadow of the playoff squad. Lots to be optimistic about and we just have to keep with the plan. Speed and talent at center, size down the walls, well-rounded dmen, and solid goaltending. Ebs is not part of the plan.

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06-18-2017, 03:33 AM
  #21
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Man I wish people actually addressed my arguments and have a little debate instead of ignoring them.


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06-18-2017, 04:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Larsson did have a ton of hype and much of that was because of how good he was in his draft -1 season. He didn't really take it to another level in his draft season which is why he kind of was like Couturier in that regard.
Hey BBO - I was very much a Larsson guy at that draft as well. Bruce McCurdy and I argued RNH vs Larsson for months with my point being that RNH didn't show any elite ES point scoring ability in junior and he likely wouldn't put up big ES points in the NHL either. Bruce was down on Larsson for lack of offense as well but nobody knew about the snarl that he would developed. In any case we have both, they are both good players, and the only issue is that stupid $6 million extension that RNH was given. At Couturier's salary (what he deserves or a bit more) nobody wants to trade RNH. The big thing next year is whether RNH trains the right way this summer and then commits to being an elite 2-way player. I'm perfectly fine with him being a 45-50 point guy if he shuts down the opposition big lines - but he's got to get stronger and harder to play against to handle the big centers. The only RNH trade I consider is a RNH-Reinhart for Tanev-Sutter kind of deal that fills a couple of our holes (2RD and 3RC) at a decent price.


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06-18-2017, 04:34 AM
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Man I wish people actually addressed my arguments and have a little debate instead of ignoring them.

Eberle's ESP/60 have dropped pretty consistently over the last 6 years

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1342

What's to argue about? He can't be expected to put up more than 50 points or so playing decent defense with 2nd unit PP time and 2nd line minutes/linemates. He didn't get "gyped" on the PP last year - almost 50% of his PP points were 2nd assists which are essentially participation points that will regress.


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06-18-2017, 07:45 AM
  #24
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I think i do RNH for Dumba and see if you can get a 3C in there for a pick also. Then sign Russell. Hard pill to swallow but you bank on Eberle rebounding.

Maroon McDavid Eberle
Lucic Draisaitl Slepyshev
Cagguila 3C Puljujärvi
Pouliot Letestu/Khaira Kassian

Klefbom Larsson
Russell/Sekera Dumba
Nurse/Russell Benning

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06-18-2017, 08:03 AM
  #25
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Man I wish people actually addressed my arguments and have a little debate instead of ignoring them.

you need to expand on them and give evidentiary support and then we will take them a part like a thanksgiving turkey

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