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Leon Draisaitl Contract Talk

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Old
06-28-2017, 06:08 PM
  #51
ah123
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My sense is Draisaitl ask on an 8 year deal could push 9m per season. Oilers I'd guess would think 7-8 range based on comps

https://twitter.com/tsnryanrishaug/s...57489706147841

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06-28-2017, 06:10 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cawz View Post
Are you missing something here with your math? Is it 9.6x5/7?
RFA Offer Sheet compensation is the total monetary value of the contract divided by the number of years, to a MAXIMUM OF 5.

9.6*5 = 48
48/7= 6.851

So, a 7-year offer sheet worth 6.851 million per year yields RFA compensation equivalent to 9.6 million.

Like I said, if a team makes that offer and Leon accepts, Chiarelli accepts and sends the opposing GM a nice bottle of scotch and a box of cigars.


Last edited by J4M13M: 06-28-2017 at 06:11 PM. Reason: typo
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06-28-2017, 06:19 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J4M13M View Post
RFA Offer Sheet compensation is the total monetary value of the contract divided by the number of years, to a MAXIMUM OF 5.

9.6*5 = 48
48/7= 6.851

So, a 7-year offer sheet worth 6.851 million per year yields RFA compensation equivalent to 9.6 million.

Like I said, if a team makes that offer and Leon accepts, Chiarelli accepts and sends the opposing GM a nice bottle of scotch and a box of cigars.
And what if a team offers 9.6M over 3 years and resigns him to a long term 10M deal after that? Even if he took a 5 year deal I think he's still an RFA at the end.

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Old
06-28-2017, 06:21 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J4M13M View Post
RFA Offer Sheet compensation is the total monetary value of the contract divided by the number of years, to a MAXIMUM OF 5.

9.6*5 = 48
48/7= 6.851

So, a 7-year offer sheet worth 6.851 million per year yields RFA compensation equivalent to 9.6 million.

Like I said, if a team makes that offer and Leon accepts, Chiarelli accepts and sends the opposing GM a nice bottle of scotch and a box of cigars.
Interesting. I didnt know any of that.

So a worst case scenario would be 5 years at 9.8 million, which would only be 2-1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. But like you said, who would send a sheet for only 5 years for that much. 6 years or up bumps it up to 4-1st round draft picks.

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06-28-2017, 06:22 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J4M13M View Post
RFA Offer Sheet compensation is the total monetary value of the contract divided by the number of years, to a MAXIMUM OF 5.

9.6*5 = 48
48/7= 6.851

So, a 7-year offer sheet worth 6.851 million per year yields RFA compensation equivalent to 9.6 million.

Like I said, if a team makes that offer and Leon accepts, Chiarelli accepts and sends the opposing GM a nice bottle of scotch and a box of cigars.
While I don't think an offer sheet will happen, a smart GM would offer a 5 year offer sheet with an AAV slightly below the more punishing compensatory picks (i.e. 9.5).

This is appealing to both the team offering (less punishment), and Leon, as he would finish this substantial contract only to walk into UFA at a relatively young age and sign another large deal.

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06-28-2017, 06:37 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
And what if a team offers 9.6M over 3 years and resigns him to a long term 10M deal after that? Even if he took a 5 year deal I think he's still an RFA at the end.
With my limited knowledge, its 7 years to UFA, so a 4 year offer or more would take him to UFA. For 3 years, maybe we match, since we still have his rights afterwards.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sOiled View Post
While I don't think an offer sheet will happen, a smart GM would offer a 5 year offer sheet with an AAV slightly below the more punishing compensatory picks (i.e. 9.5).

This is appealing to both the team offering (less punishment), and Leon, as he would finish this substantial contract only to walk into UFA at a relatively young age and sign another large deal.
I dunno. 5 years takes him to UFA, so thats a lot of money and good draft picks for not a lot of time. The risk is very high, which is why offer sheets are so rare.

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06-28-2017, 06:40 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Cawz View Post
With my limited knowledge, its 7 years to UFA, so a 4 year offer or more would take him to UFA. For 3 years, maybe we match, since we still have his rights afterwards.


I dunno. 5 years takes him to UFA, so thats a lot of money and good draft picks for not a lot of time. The risk is very high, which is why offer sheets are so rare.
2 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd aren't bad if your getting a #1 center and not picking high in the draft.(San Jose, Carolina) And if they're paying him 9.6M they can probably afford to re sign him as a UFA. Any offersheet needs to be seen as a poison pill so the team doesn't want to match.

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06-28-2017, 06:47 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
2 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd aren't bad if your getting a #1 center and not picking high in the draft.(San Jose, Carolina) And if they're paying him 9.6M they can probably afford to re sign him as a UFA. Any offersheet needs to be seen as a poison pill so the team doesn't want to match.
Your underselling the risk in this scenario.

You're suggesting that a team trade those picks and spend the 5th most expensive contract in the entire NHL for a guy who has one 77 point season on the wing of the leagues best offensive player.

That scenario is borderline absurd. It would be the single riskiest thing an NHL GM has ever attempted.

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06-28-2017, 06:52 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
And what if a team offers 9.6M over 3 years and resigns him to a long term 10M deal after that? Even if he took a 5 year deal I think he's still an RFA at the end.
If they even mention that before he signs the offer sheet, it's tampering.

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06-28-2017, 06:55 PM
  #60
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If it is 9 mil I would be open to selling him to STL for Parayko don't know if they would go for that or if it even fits under cap.

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06-28-2017, 06:55 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
Your underselling the risk in this scenario.

You're suggesting that a team trade those picks and spend the 5th most expensive contract in the entire NHL for a guy who has one 77 point season on the wing of the leagues best offensive player.

That scenario is borderline absurd. It would be the single riskiest thing an NHL GM has ever attempted.
Well having watched him get better and better over two years it's a deal I could easily see done. And he was alright last year for large parts as well. His board work, and ability to protect the puck went to another level this year, which is why I think he could potentially get the big deal. How many players in the league can man handle guys like Draisaitl can? Worse case scenario he's a David Backes type player, and Backes got 6M 2 years ago as a 31 year old. If your a team that has the cap space, and poised to compete for the playoffs I dont see any downside. 9.6M is less then what we would have signed Vanek for in terms of percentage in relation to the cap. Just some things to think about.

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06-28-2017, 06:56 PM
  #62
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9mill for leon d after one real good season?

I know they will get paid. But that means trimming meat from other parts of the roster

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06-28-2017, 06:56 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
2 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd aren't bad if your getting a #1 center and not picking high in the draft.(San Jose, Carolina) And if they're paying him 9.6M they can probably afford to re sign him as a UFA. Any offersheet needs to be seen as a poison pill so the team doesn't want to match.
I thought Carolina was broke and not getting much fans out to games, so I cant see them throwing a bunch of money at a player. San Jose maybe but thats a lot of money to throw at a player coming off 1 career year. If the team that owns his rights doesnt think he's worth that much, other teams should be wary. I like Drai but hes not worth that. Any team that thinks he is is going to be disappointed. Players regress all the time after career years that jump so far ahead from how they played in the previous season. A team could very well be paying a 60-some point player 9.6 million if he plays on a team that doesnt have Mcdavid out there taking everyone's attention

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06-28-2017, 06:58 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
And what if a team offers 9.6M over 3 years and resigns him to a long term 10M deal after that? Even if he took a 5 year deal I think he's still an RFA at the end.
I suppose it's theoretically possible, but the probability would be so small, I'd be shocked.

And again, no team that's close to competing has a spare 10M in cap. and any team that could afford the cap is close enough to kiss the draft picks goodbye.

I would think any team spending that much on a player wants him locked in as long as possible.

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06-28-2017, 07:03 PM
  #65
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If he wants 9m then he can go **** himself

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06-28-2017, 07:11 PM
  #66
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A team that wants to offer sheet would need their OWN 4 first round picks over the next 4 years. That eliminates pretty much any contender team as they need those picks for trade deadline. When you factor in the cap space situation/player situation, you're looking at:

Devils
Hurricanes

and MAYBE:
Coyotes (probably would stick with strome as 1c)
Canadiens

Devils and Canes are teams that'll most likely miss the playoffs for a while, as are the Coyotes. With the way the lottery works now, no way would any GM give up (especially the Devils after just winning it!) the chance to win the lottery 4 times for Leon Draisaitl AND becoming a league pariah. It just won't happen.

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06-28-2017, 07:11 PM
  #67
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If I was Chia, I would have no worries about the offer sheet. IF someone goes crazy, then take the 4 firsts and the 9 million in cap space. (people underestimate what cap room can do)
You can do a lot with 9 million dollars in cap space and the 4 firsts wont hurt either. I love Drai but if he's making outrageous demands, in hopes of receiving a offer sheet then let him play for Vegas (or whoever has room to throw out a crazy offer). His new team may be a bit surprised about his production without McDavid.

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06-28-2017, 07:13 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elftor View Post
A team that wants to offer sheet would need their OWN 4 first round picks over the next 4 years. That eliminates pretty much any contender team as they need those picks for trade deadline. When you factor in the cap space situation/player situation, you're looking at:

Devils
Hurricanes

and MAYBE:
Coyotes (probably would stick with strome as 1c)
Canadiens

Devils and Canes are teams that'll most likely miss the playoffs for a while, as are the Coyotes. With the way the lottery works now, no way would any GM give up (especially the Devils after just winning it!) the chance to win the lottery 4 times for Leon Draisaitl AND becoming a league pariah. It just won't happen.
I think you can take the Canadiens off the list here as well. If they have any hope of resigning Price, and dealing with that Weber contract they would be insane to give Drai 9m

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06-28-2017, 07:14 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by RaabHart View Post
And what if a team offers 9.6M over 3 years and resigns him to a long term 10M deal after that? Even if he took a 5 year deal I think he's still an RFA at the end.
You match and trade him next offseason if the cap cannot be worked out. Even if they have to eat some salary to move him he would fetch a lot.

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06-28-2017, 07:15 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by AVE MAN View Post
If I was Chia, I would have no worries about the offer sheet. IF someone goes crazy, then take the 4 firsts and the 9 million in cap space. (people underestimate what cap room can do)
You can do a lot with 9 million dollars in cap space and the 4 firsts wont hurt either. I love Drai but if he's making outrageous demands, in hopes of receiving a offer sheet then let him play for Vegas (or whoever has room to throw out a crazy offer). His new team may be a bit surprised about his production without McDavid.
9M doesn't net us 4 first round picks. It gets us 2 firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd.

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06-28-2017, 07:16 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AVE MAN View Post
If I was Chia, I would have no worries about the offer sheet. IF someone goes crazy, then take the 4 firsts and the 9 million in cap space. (people underestimate what cap room can do)
You can do a lot with 9 million dollars in cap space and the 4 firsts wont hurt either. I love Drai but if he's making outrageous demands, in hopes of receiving a offer sheet then let him play for Vegas (or whoever has room to throw out a crazy offer). His new team may be a bit surprised about his production without McDavid.
Would rather see if STL wants him for Parayko over picks but yeah I agree. IF Drai had those point numbers all year by himself he would have a small argument and even then I would hesitate.

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06-28-2017, 07:17 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
9M doesn't net us 4 first round picks. It gets us 2 firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd.
It depends on how longs its offered for (as I just found out today).

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06-28-2017, 07:18 PM
  #73
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You match and trade him next offseason if the cap cannot be worked out. Even if they have to eat some salary to move him he would fetch a lot.
I would match and trade him now when his value is at the highest . He drops to 60 points this year good luck moving that contract.

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06-28-2017, 07:24 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by AVE MAN View Post
If I was Chia, I would have no worries about the offer sheet. IF someone goes crazy, then take the 4 firsts and the 9 million in cap space. (people underestimate what cap room can do)
You can do a lot with 9 million dollars in cap space and the 4 firsts wont hurt either. I love Drai but if he's making outrageous demands, in hopes of receiving a offer sheet then let him play for Vegas (or whoever has room to throw out a crazy offer). His new team may be a bit surprised about his production without McDavid.
I would take 4 LV 1st round picks for Draisaitl any day of the week. Those firsts would be guaranteed top 10 every year.

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06-28-2017, 07:25 PM
  #75
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It depends on how longs its offered for (as I just found out today).
Yep, for sure.

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