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Leon Draisaitl Contract Talk

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Old
07-17-2017, 03:31 AM
  #976
SK13
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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
List all the players in the NHL in the past 5 years that scored 77 pts in the season they started as a 20 year old...

Hint... it's a very small list.
Now list the number of players who did it without the best offensive player of a generation buoying the numbers? Draisaitl is not on it.

Let's stop calling Draisaitl a 20 year old while we're at it. He was 21 a couple weeks into the year.

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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Hell... Tarasenko and Gaudreau THIS season in the playoffs had 8 pts COMBINED in 15 games. That's in their 24 and 23 year old season as well... several years older than Drai.
Prior to this past season, Tarasenko had 26 points in 32 playoff games. There are a lot of factors in small playoff samples and there's certainly no reason to expect Draisaitl to dominate every time. Even Crosby has hit the wall a few times.


Last edited by SK13: 07-17-2017 at 03:36 AM.
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07-17-2017, 09:53 AM
  #977
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The golden boys signed for 6x6 when the cap was 64.3M, roughly 9.33% each for 6 years. The equivalent today would be 7.18x6.

8x8 is far from overpayment IMO, considering we would be buying 2 more years. And I would take Drai over RNH/Ebs any day, and arguably Hall as well.

I don't know why everyone is so worked up over 8M AAV, I would be happy to pay that. 9M AAV is pushing it, but 8M is not unreasonable IMO.

The first few years might be slight overpayment, but that's the whole point of long contacts for young players.

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07-17-2017, 09:58 AM
  #978
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Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
Now list the number of players who did it without the best offensive player of a generation buoying the numbers? Draisaitl is not on it.

Let's stop calling Draisaitl a 20 year old while we're at it. He was 21 a couple weeks into the year.



Prior to this past season, Tarasenko had 26 points in 32 playoff games. There are a lot of factors in small playoff samples and there's certainly no reason to expect Draisaitl to dominate every time. Even Crosby has hit the wall a few times.
'member when Fernando Pisani scored 14 goals in 1 playoff year? I 'member

As much as Drai's camp would love to, you can't make an 8 year decision based on 1 playoff round.

Lots of people seem very defensive about Drai. I don't think anyone here is saying he is not a good player. I think most believe he will be a great player for us. I think what matters most though for negotiations is what a guy as proven, and what his potential is. Has Drai proven he is a consistent driver at C? I don't think anyone can answer this with certainty either way. The bits of data we have ranges from meh to spectacular, and they all have some circumstance attached to them that you can argue made it better or worse than it would have been.

MacT robbed us of an extra year to evaluate. The Oilers are taking a gamble if they pay him like an elite C long term, no question. That gamble should come with a bit of a discount on his deal if Drai wants the 8 year term.


Last edited by oobga: 07-17-2017 at 10:20 AM.
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Old
07-17-2017, 10:17 AM
  #979
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Pretty sure he meant our first-round pick.
Yeah, I did. Thanks

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07-17-2017, 10:37 AM
  #980
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Originally Posted by oobga View Post
'member when Fernando Pisani scored 14 goals in 1 playoff year? I 'member
Yeah because it makes sense to compare Pisani with Draisaitl...

Leon nearly has as much points in his years so far than Pisani had in his whole career. And he played 250 more games to reach his point total.

But this post is essentially the whole discussion in a nutshell. But: every contract is somewhat of a risk. Also with 'more proven' players you can get a major drop-off if you're unlucky. There are countless examples of those in the NHL in the last decade. With Drai, the Oil is not getting a guy who just floated on McJesus' wave of success. He's surely a player of his own and fills a spot on the roster that other teams really would like to have: a center who is strong and can protect the puck very well and has one of the best vision and backhand passes in the game. It is what it is. You have to pay for that big time. Get over it.


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Old
07-17-2017, 10:46 AM
  #981
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Originally Posted by oobga View Post
'member when Fernando Pisani scored 14 goals in 1 playoff year? I 'member

As much as Drai's camp would love to, you can't make an 8 year decision based on 1 playoff round.

Lots of people seem very defensive about Drai. I don't think anyone here is saying he is not a good player. I think most believe he will be a great player for us. I think what matters most though for negotiations is what a guy as proven, and what his potential is. Has Drai proven he is a consistent driver at C? I don't think anyone can answer this with certainty either way. The bits of data we have ranges from meh to spectacular, and they all have some circumstance attached to them that you can argue made it better or worse than it would have been.

MacT robbed us of an extra year to evaluate. The Oilers are taking a gamble if they pay him like an elite C long term, no question. That gamble should come with a bit of a discount on his deal if Drai wants the 8 year term.
MacT didn't rob us of a year to evaluate. What he did with Drai was perfect.

Right now we're talking about numbers around 8. Wait a season, and we're talking about numbers around 9 or 10. Drai would probably love to sign a 1 year bridge deal right now. Chiarelli is likely the one insisting on a long term deal, just like he did with McDavid.

Also, you are suggesting that Drai should not have got the NHL experience he got in his rookie year. The results speak for themselves. We took the right path with Drai, and his taste of the NHL must have informed and enriched his development. Contract stuff is nice and all, but the important part is developing the player to their maximum.

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07-17-2017, 11:02 AM
  #982
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Originally Posted by Mr Positive View Post
MacT didn't rob us of a year to evaluate. What he did with Drai was perfect.

Right now we're talking about numbers around 8. Wait a season, and we're talking about numbers around 9 or 10. Drai would probably love to sign a 1 year bridge deal right now. Chiarelli is likely the one insisting on a long term deal, just like he did with McDavid.

Also, you are suggesting that Drai should not have got the NHL experience he got in his rookie year. The results speak for themselves. We took the right path with Drai, and his taste of the NHL must have informed and enriched his development. Contract stuff is nice and all, but the important part is developing the player to their maximum.
We obviously have differing opinions on the best way to handle young players. IMO, if a guy obviously isn't ready for the NHL, you save his ELC/UFA years. Good teams do this all the time. I very much doubt anyone is looking at how we handled Drai and Pulju in their 1st seasons and saying, "wow, that's brilliant! Burn the ELC/UFA years while they are way over their heads in the NHL! Let's do that too!"

We did save Drai's UFA year, but it sounds like Drai's camp is actually using that as a negative towards us, basically that we stole burning a UFA year by sending him down right before it would be gone. So they likely look at it like the org owes Drai something. I would bet the backlash about the sneaky move to send Drai down right before the RFA year was burned was the reason we kept Pulju up longer to burn his RFA year. Didn't want to create bad blood the same way again with Pulju's agent. Sending guys down after the 9 game tryout is normal. Keeping guys up for half a season and sending them away right before they can claim a year of NHL experience is not at all a normal thing to do.


I don't really think a player learns that much from being in over their head in the NHL for months on end. 9 games of that is plenty. He didn't need an extra 30 of struggling. Just like Pulju didn't need all the extra time of not playing and just hanging around the org. He could have been playing 20/night in the AHL that whole time. His time in the AHL after we finally sent him down ended up not being enough for him to get comfortable.

As for the extra time resulting in 9-10M. That assumes Drai would blow the doors off as a #2C. Fans have their right to just assume that is a guarantee, but I don't think anyone is wrong to still think that may not happen. As I said, not enough data to be sure either way. Also, we would have had the option to sign Drai this summer with 1 year left on his ELC if we didn't burn the ELC year. He wouldn't have the option to hold out and skip camp, or entertain offer sheets this summer.


Last edited by oobga: 07-17-2017 at 11:27 AM.
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Old
07-17-2017, 11:02 AM
  #983
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I don't think most people here deny his talent, just some are maybe saying his numbers are perhaps a bit inflated because of Mcdavid. doesn't mean they value his potential much less.

the debate is what he's truly worth, and what we think the oiler should pay him regardless of his worth.

I've seen a few people post that drai is worth up to 9m per year and they're fine with him getting paid that.
I disagree.
I concede he may going forward be worth up to 8M on an 8 year, but no way he should be paid 8 million or more per year.

The oilers do have to worry about managing drai and Mcdavid under the cap.
no way both players combined salary should exceed 20M per year.

so my opinion is there is no way the oilers should, or can afford to, pay Drai more than 7.5 per year. and I hope they fight hard to keep the numbers in that range or lower.

more than 7.5 and it's a management fail and the chia appreciation thread should be deleted. lol

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07-17-2017, 11:11 AM
  #984
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gord View Post
I don't think most people here deny his talent, just some are maybe saying his numbers are perhaps a bit inflated because of Mcdavid. doesn't mean they value his potential much less.

the debate is what he's truly worth, and what we think the oiler should pay him regardless of his worth.

I've seen a few people post that drai is worth up to 9m per year and they're fine with him getting paid that.
I disagree.
I concede he may going forward be worth up to 8M on an 8 year, but no way he should be paid 8 million or more per year.

The oilers do have to worry about managing drai and Mcdavid under the cap.
no way both players combined salary should exceed 20M per year.

so my opinion is there is no way the oilers should, or can afford to, pay Drai more than 7.5 per year. and I hope they fight hard to keep the numbers in that range or lower.

more than 7.5 and it's a management fail and the chia appreciation thread should be deleted. lol
so 7.4M is fine but fire Chia if its 7.6M ?
Its all talk here and no one really knows what number they are focused on.. In the end everyone here will accept whatever number it is and move on.

Its going to be between 19M combined and 21M combine... no more no less. Good enough for all.

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07-17-2017, 11:21 AM
  #985
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Originally Posted by LTIR View Post
so 7.4M is fine but fire Chia if its 7.6M ?
Its all talk here and no one really knows what number they are focused on.. In the end everyone here will accept whatever number it is and move on.

Its going to be between 19M combined and 21M combine... no more no less. Good enough for all.
didn't say fire chia, but every dollar is important. if contracts are $200,000 per year more than they need to be, it adds up pretty quick and won't take long to screw the team.

look at the high end of your example. I say both shouldn't be more than 20, you say will be up to 21. you think a million bucks a year is no big deal? poorly managing the small details of the salary cap is what would hurt the oiler chances to have good depth players and compete for a cup.

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07-17-2017, 11:50 AM
  #986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Positive View Post
MacT didn't rob us of a year to evaluate. What he did with Drai was perfect.

Right now we're talking about numbers around 8. Wait a season, and we're talking about numbers around 9 or 10. Drai would probably love to sign a 1 year bridge deal right now. Chiarelli is likely the one insisting on a long term deal, just like he did with McDavid.

Also, you are suggesting that Drai should not have got the NHL experience he got in his rookie year. The results speak for themselves. We took the right path with Drai, and his taste of the NHL must have informed and enriched his development. Contract stuff is nice and all, but the important part is developing the player to their maximum.
See the problem here is that people are taking the bolded as fact. You're assuming here that Drai repeats next season, so then his value takes a considerable jump due to consistency. But what happens if his numbers fall because we solely play him on line 2 (which if I'm Chia and TMac, and having Draisaitl and his agent say he's worth a penny over 8, then that EXACTLY what I do), and he fails to repeat his high production when he isn't given a generational player to play with? Then maybe his next contract would be 6 instead of 9 or 10.

Making assumptions is what is leading this argument.

1 side is assuming that he's going to repeat no matter what so we should lock him up long term at a high value.

The other side is skeptical and is uncertain about consistency without McDavid, but since we also want him signed long term we want the value to be lowered due to lack of available data to confidently determine his value.

This is the real issue with this argument. Neither side will budge, and both sides think they're right. But what happens if we do sign him for 8M+ and then throw him to his own line and he doesn't repeat? If he sticks at 60-65 points annually he may not be worth the contract. And that's when fans start to turn on a player and run them out of town.

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07-17-2017, 12:00 PM
  #987
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8x8 would be a good deal. People tend to think if he signs longer it should be for less, but that applies to veterans not young players. Vets want the security given injury issues. For some one like Drai you pay more to lock up UFA years. 8x8 would be in line with what similar players got compared to the cap. If he wants more though Chia should wait. Worst case you sign him to a cheap bridge contract, but lets hope it doesn't go there.

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07-17-2017, 12:37 PM
  #988
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If the Oilers were going to give 8 mil per year it would have happened already.
Oilers have the leverage here, and we should all hope they use it.
Also a bridge deal should be well less than 6 mil per year.
Drai's camp started with 9 on a 8 year deal, Oilers started with 6, eventually we get to 7.5 but my guess is it won't be until training camp. No way Oilers should go over 7.5, let him sit for a couple games and try for 7.25ish, it will be worth it in the long run.

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07-17-2017, 12:49 PM
  #989
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People were sure Johnny Ball Hockey was getting over 8 million as well but management waited him out and he signed for under 7.

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07-17-2017, 12:59 PM
  #990
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Originally Posted by doulos View Post
People were sure Johnny Ball Hockey was getting over 8 million as well but management waited him out and he signed for under 7.
Again people are not comparing apples to apples, He signed for 6 years, so he will have 2 UFA years left. We are talking 8 year deal. If Drai signs for 6 years it will be around 7 mill per year. 8 years though adds a lot, those UFA years are the years that add the most. I mean we could sign him to a 2 year deal probably at 6 per year.

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07-17-2017, 01:04 PM
  #991
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Originally Posted by McOkMcgoMcoil View Post
8x8 would be a good deal. People tend to think if he signs longer it should be for less, but that applies to veterans not young players. Vets want the security given injury issues. For some one like Drai you pay more to lock up UFA years. 8x8 would be in line with what similar players got compared to the cap. If he wants more though Chia should wait. Worst case you sign him to a cheap bridge contract, but lets hope it doesn't go there.
I agree with this post 100%. A bridge would be horrible, and would defeat any benefit that came with burning the first year of his ELC.

Even in the scenario that was posted earlier, where he only gets 60-65 points on his own line, the later portion of an 8x8 deal would still be reasonable. And that's on the pessimistic side of things.

8 years is a long time, and the cap will likely increase by a significant amount.

We're not banking on him being the next Malkin or whoever, we're banking on him not ******** the bed.... Which is a much safer bet than people realize IMO

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07-17-2017, 01:15 PM
  #992
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People were sure Johnny Ball Hockey was getting over 8 million as well but management waited him out and he signed for under 7.
He also couldn't sign an offer sheet.. Go to Arbitration.. He literally had no leverage except sit out.

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07-17-2017, 01:24 PM
  #993
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He also couldn't sign an offer sheet.. Go to Arbitration.. He literally had no leverage except sit out.
It seems the chance of an offer sheet dropped to about 0 once July 7th rolled around.
Not many teams out there that could offer more than 8 per, are there??

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07-17-2017, 01:45 PM
  #994
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Yeah, I did. Thanks
No worries. I've got your back. 😁

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07-17-2017, 02:03 PM
  #995
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It seems the chance of an offer sheet dropped to about 0 once July 7th rolled around.
Not many teams out there that could offer more than 8 per, are there??
Who's to say that an offer sheet hasn't been made and Leon and his agent are sitting, but not signing, and waiting for Chiarelli's move?

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07-17-2017, 02:26 PM
  #996
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Who's to say that an offer sheet hasn't been made and Leon and his agent are sitting, but not signing, and waiting for Chiarelli's move?
If that was true the agent would've leaked it to the press IMO to exert more pressure. I don't see it. If it was going to happen it would've happened already and likely would've leaked out. Also I mean what is the team sending out the OS supposed to do? Just sit around and wait all summer uncertain of whether or not they have 9-10 million in salary coming onto their books?

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07-17-2017, 02:43 PM
  #997
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If that was true the agent would've leaked it to the press IMO to exert more pressure. I don't see it. If it was going to happen it would've happened already and likely would've leaked out. Also I mean what is the team sending out the OS supposed to do? Just sit around and wait all summer uncertain of whether or not they have 9-10 million in salary coming onto their books?
Well, we look at a team like Montreal who is potentially able to send an offer sheet (say 7.8 x 8), perhaps on the player's behalf nothing has been leaked.

The last thing Marc Bergevin would want would be the Montreal media circus to see a failed offer sheet so he can be further ripped apart by his media and fans.

Pure speculation of course but I don't know what the purpose of Draisaitl's agent going public would do if Leon in fact truly wants to be here. If he signed it to apply pressure to Edmonton our fan base would be up in arms saying that he doesn't want to be here. McDavid is Draisaitl's best friend in hockey, I can't see him wanting to leave. He too wants to win and I think he knows he has a good shot with the Oilers.

It's a business, we won't always get to see the entire story unfold. Unless Oil Change is brought back to life

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07-17-2017, 02:44 PM
  #998
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Well, we look at a team like Montreal who is potentially able to send an offer sheet (say 7.8 x 8), perhaps on the player's behalf nothing has been leaked.

The last thing Marc Bergevin would want would be the Montreal media circus to see a failed offer sheet so he can be further ripped apart by his media and fans.

Pure speculation of course but I don't know what the purpose of Draisaitl's agent going public would do if Leon in fact truly wants to be here. Our fan base would be up in arms saying that he doesn't want to be here. McDavid is Draisaitl's best friend in hockey, I can't see him wanting to leave. He too wants to win and I think he knows he has a good shot with the Oilers.
If Montreal offered 7.8x8 great .... I'd tell Leon to sign it and it's matched and we move on.

Montreal apparently has offers sitting on the table for Markov and Streit, I don't think they can wait all summer.

The *agent* would leak it to the press by the way. Nothing a team can really do about that.

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07-17-2017, 02:55 PM
  #999
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If Montreal offered 7.8x8 great .... I'd tell Leon to sign it and it's matched and we move on.

Montreal apparently has offers sitting on the table for Markov and Streit, I don't think they can wait all summer.

The *agent* would leak it to the press by the way. Nothing a team can really do about that.
I disagree, if a player asks their agent to keep their mouth shut and their agent decides to blab, there would be about 100 player agents looking to represent Draisaitl the way he wants to be represented.

I don't think Mike Liut is the type of guy to spill the beans. He has a lot to lose and word travels quickly.

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07-17-2017, 02:58 PM
  #1000
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Originally Posted by EakinsMVP View Post
The golden boys signed for 6x6 when the cap was 64.3M, roughly 9.33% each for 6 years. The equivalent today would be 7.18x6.

8x8 is far from overpayment IMO, considering we would be buying 2 more years. And I would take Drai over RNH/Ebs any day, and arguably Hall as well.

I don't know why everyone is so worked up over 8M AAV, I would be happy to pay that. 9M AAV is pushing it, but 8M is not unreasonable IMO.

The first few years might be slight overpayment, but that's the whole point of long contacts for young players.
Only Eberle signed for 6 years. Hall and RNH signed for 7.

To your point though, I want Draisaitl signed as long as possible so if its 8*8 I will be happy. Anything more will be too much IMO anything less will be a bargain.

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