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Old
07-16-2017, 12:52 AM
  #476
Festinator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
fun game to play:

Two defenders pace to similar shot, xgoals, and goal differentials, but one is higher event and the other is lower event.

Which one is the better player to have on a good team?
Which one is better to have on a weak team?
Is a and b different or the same?
Does the answer for a or b change if you are leading or trailing late?

I'll answer tomorrow.
a) high event dman
b) high event dman
c) same?
d) you'll want higher event if trailing and lower event when leading i would assume

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Old
07-16-2017, 01:49 AM
  #477
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
fun game to play:

Two defenders pace to similar shot, xgoals, and goal differentials, but one is higher event and the other is lower event.

Which one is the better player to have on a good team?
Which one is better to have on a weak team?
Is a and b different or the same?
Does the answer for a or b change if you are leading or trailing late?

I'll answer tomorrow.
I'll approach it as if we're talking poker.

1. Lower event. Minimize big swings while letting your skill move your game forward.
2. Higher event. If you're a weak player you want to make big plays to neutralize your superior opponent's advantage.
3. Different.
4. Yes - if you're behind you want the chance at a big swing that the higher event player gives. If you're leading you want to manage the avenue of probability so you want the lower event player.

I'm curious to see if this poker analogy is apt.





m.

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Old
07-16-2017, 02:58 AM
  #478
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Originally Posted by JetsFan815 View Post
I guess you have your talking point now for the next few months with the Girardi-Yzermann thing

Yzermann made a bad move but it's just one move. Chayka still remains unblemished though
One move? We're talking about the same guy who had a contender, traded away a starting goalie, and missed the playoffs by a point, right?

Not to mention the fact that he's reuniting Girardi with another lousy contract in Ryan Callahan.

And Chayka's record is spotless? If Cheveldayoff let Vrbata 'walk for NOTHING' I can think of at least one poster who'd be criticizing him for it for literally years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
fun game to play:

Two defenders pace to similar shot, xgoals, and goal differentials, but one is higher event and the other is lower event.

Which one is the better player to have on a good team?
Which one is better to have on a weak team?
Is a and b different or the same?
Does the answer for a or b change if you are leading or trailing late?

I'll answer tomorrow.
Low event on a good team, because you're likely playing with the lead more.
High event on a bad team because you're likely playing behind more.
Different.
See above.

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07-16-2017, 06:38 AM
  #479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
fun game to play:

Two defenders pace to similar shot, xgoals, and goal differentials, but one is higher event and the other is lower event.

Which one is the better player to have on a good team?
Which one is better to have on a weak team?
Is a and b different or the same?
Does the answer for a or b change if you are leading or trailing late?

I'll answer tomorrow.
High event all the way. Crush the SOBs.

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Old
07-16-2017, 06:42 AM
  #480
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Originally Posted by Board Bard View Post
High event all the way. Crush the SOBs.
Yep. It's much easier for a high event player to play a low event game when required than the other way around, IMO.

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Old
07-16-2017, 10:06 AM
  #481
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There must be a way to measure quality of event before you can compare. The high event player may push the pressure, resulting in numerous S/A. Then gives up a breakaway. You've just wasted 5:00 off the clock as a team was steady on defense, rolling with the punches then got a greater scoring chance due to lack of defensive awareness.

The 5 shots on net you'll generate will have less of an opportunity to go in through a 5 man unit defending than a breakaway.

One shot is more dangerous than the other and shouldn't be measured as equal

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07-16-2017, 10:08 AM
  #482
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Yep. It's much easier for a high event player to play a low event game when required than the other way around, IMO.
Yes, but will they make that choice in the heat of the moment, or will their instinct for risk taking always win out?

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Old
07-16-2017, 10:24 AM
  #483
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Yes, but will they make that choice in the heat of the moment, or will their instinct for risk taking always win out?
One skill can be taught/coached, the opposite can't. I'll take the high event player every time.

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Old
07-16-2017, 10:44 AM
  #484
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Originally Posted by HPsauce View Post
There must be a way to measure quality of event before you can compare. The high event player may push the pressure, resulting in numerous S/A. Then gives up a breakaway. You've just wasted 5:00 off the clock as a team was steady on defense, rolling with the punches then got a greater scoring chance due to lack of defensive awareness.

The 5 shots on net you'll generate will have less of an opportunity to go in through a 5 man unit defending than a breakaway.

One shot is more dangerous than the other and shouldn't be measured as equal
Nice job. This is so true and describes Buff's game perfectly.

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Old
07-16-2017, 11:57 AM
  #485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
fun game to play:

Two defenders pace to similar shot, xgoals, and goal differentials, but one is higher event and the other is lower event.

Which one is the better player to have on a good team?
Which one is better to have on a weak team?
Is a and b different or the same?
Does the answer for a or b change if you are leading or trailing late?


I'll answer tomorrow.
Good team = High event
Weak team = Low event

A and B are different because a weak team would rather play low event hockey making goals more rare for both sides.... A weak team will have a harder time scoring goals themselves so they are better off limiting the total number of goals period.

You'd want high event hockey trailing late and low event hockey leading late.

That's my guess.

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Old
07-16-2017, 01:08 PM
  #486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayofthedogs View Post
Good team = High event
Weak team = Low event

A and B are different because a weak team would rather play low event hockey making goals more rare for both sides.... A weak team will have a harder time scoring goals themselves so they are better off limiting the total number of goals period.

You'd want high event hockey trailing late and low event hockey leading late.

That's my guess.
I figure Garret's giving us a trick question. He's thrown in the low-event info as a seemingly logical option for close situations, but it's really a red herring meant to sucker us away from the plot twist, which is that the high-event option is best in all situations.

Even if that's not the case, I still like the high-event option. To me, crushing is the name of the game. I'd be totally chuffed with a season full of 8-1 games, with a few 6-5 come-from-behind victories tossed in for variety.

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Old
07-16-2017, 01:26 PM
  #487
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The correct answer....

Fire Maurice

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Old
07-16-2017, 05:56 PM
  #488
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Originally Posted by Aavco Cup View Post
The correct answer....

Fire Maurice
And bring back Stempniak!!!

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Old
07-16-2017, 06:10 PM
  #489
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Good teams want higher event players. More events = less chance of variance (or 'luck') taking over.

Bad teams want lower event players. Fewer events = more chance of variance taking over, so weaker teams can ride luck.

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Old
07-16-2017, 07:09 PM
  #490
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Your edit partially corrected your post. You seem to be using puck moving D interchangeably with offensive D. I may be in the minority, IDK but I use the term differently. PMD are good at getting the puck out of the D zone. That inevitably gets them a few more A's but they may not be particularly good offensively.

All offensive Dmen are good PMD but not all good PMD are good offensively. That ability to get possession and then move the puck out of the D zone is something I think you want in all of your Dmen. That is in contrast to the straight up defensive Dmen who block a lot of shots, clear the front of the net and win battles in the corners. Not that doing any of those things is bad just that they are not the primary goals. More Morrisseys or Troubas, fewer Stus or Chiarots. Not necessarily more Buffs.
Yup, I noticed that after I posted. I misread what ps241 was saying and then went on a rant

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07-16-2017, 07:15 PM
  #491
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Yep. It's much easier for a high event player to play a low event game when required than the other way around, IMO.
LOL don't twist it Gin

You can't say hi event player and then want him to be all low event and junk.

You think Buff could be a low event player?

I think on a weak team you want a high event player, but on a good team you want a low event player.

I think the question can be expanded this way:

If you had 2 defensemen yadda yadda yadda (garret talk ) which would you rather have:

On a team with low forward skill, weak scoring ability
A team with high forward skill, top 10 team in scoring from the forwards

High event
Low event

As for Aavco, high event might be more entertaining (and I know that's why many people watch) but to win, win consistently, and win playoff games and championships I want 6 low event PMD's on my team

Of course, I want my top 6 forwards to be high event.

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Old
07-16-2017, 07:17 PM
  #492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HPsauce View Post
There must be a way to measure quality of event before you can compare. The high event player may push the pressure, resulting in numerous S/A. Then gives up a breakaway. You've just wasted 5:00 off the clock as a team was steady on defense, rolling with the punches then got a greater scoring chance due to lack of defensive awareness.

The 5 shots on net you'll generate will have less of an opportunity to go in through a 5 man unit defending than a breakaway.

One shot is more dangerous than the other and shouldn't be measured as equal
Very good point.

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Old
07-16-2017, 07:29 PM
  #493
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jet View Post
LOL don't twist it Gin

You can't say hi event player and then want him to be all low event and junk.

You think Buff could be a low event player?
I'm not twisting anything. I'm giving my honest opinion.

And yes: I do think he can, under the right circumstances.


Quote:
I think on a weak team you want a high event player, but on a good team you want a low event player.
I think it's exactly the opposite. As a weak team, you want to bide your time, and wait for mistakes in order to pounce. As a strong team, you want to take it to the other team.

Witness what some coaches have been able to do with playing the NZ trap game to a tee. Boring as ****, but can work even when you're lacking talent.

Quote:
As for Aavco, high event might be more entertaining (and I know that's why many people watch) but to win, win consistently, and win playoff games and championships I want 6 low event PMD's on my team

Of course, I want my top 6 forwards to be high event.
Like PK or Letang? Weren't those teams both vying for the SC recently? Didn't EK help push Ottawa into the PO's? Etc.

We won't agree on Buff, and I doubt we'll agree on low vs. high event stuff either. I respect your opinion - I just don't agree with it. I'll agree with wanting every last defenseman to be able to move the puck though, even if they're not putting it in the net or racking up assists. It's one of the reasons I liked Postma and Redmond (and even Clitsome) as 3rd pairing guys.

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Old
07-16-2017, 07:52 PM
  #494
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Originally Posted by Jet View Post
Yup, I noticed that after I posted. I misread what ps241 was saying and then went on a rant
Always my favorite reason for a rant. It's usually cause for a real cracker and when the error is pointed out, you just say...




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Old
07-17-2017, 01:39 AM
  #495
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Conventional wisdom says that a weak team would want to minimize the events in order to get 1-0, 2-1 wins as they can't expect 7-5 wins etc. I don't think that wisdom always carries though and depends on definition of a weak team: I assume we are talking about a team with material that's weak on paper?

This is a bit of hyperbole, but you can't win any games with low event guys that finish with goal 0 goals made and 10 let in. You could win some games with 10 goals made and 20 let in. For a weak low-event team, getting someone with 20 made and 30 let in should result in more wins, especially if you can adjust minutes depending on trailing/leading.

We could strictly add the player's impact on goal differential of the team and see which one impacts the ratio more. A team at 100-100 goals adding 0-10 player will go from 1:1 to 1:1.10. Same team adding 20-30 player goes to 1:1.08. Which player has more of a positive impact on the goal ratio depends on how many goals and which ratio we start at. I'm not sure this ratio is particularly relevant, though?

Last year in FEL we saw a team that was by far weakest on paper play very active hockey. They were slotted 15/15 in pretty much all non-homer predictions but made it to 11/15 in the end.

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Old
07-17-2017, 03:28 AM
  #496
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
Good teams want higher event players. More events = less chance of variance (or 'luck') taking over.

Bad teams want lower event players. Fewer events = more chance of variance taking over, so weaker teams can ride luck.
This is the correct answer, with the correct reasoning.

And, to which you didn't answer, you would not want things to be different leading or trailing. If you are good and trailing or leading, you want high event to reduce the extent of luck score. If you are bad and trailing or leading, you want low event to increase the chance of luck impacting the final score.


Last edited by garret9: 07-17-2017 at 03:41 AM.
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Old
07-17-2017, 03:31 AM
  #497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HPsauce View Post
There must be a way to measure quality of event before you can compare. The high event player may push the pressure, resulting in numerous S/A. Then gives up a breakaway. You've just wasted 5:00 off the clock as a team was steady on defense, rolling with the punches then got a greater scoring chance due to lack of defensive awareness.

The 5 shots on net you'll generate will have less of an opportunity to go in through a 5 man unit defending than a breakaway.

One shot is more dangerous than the other and shouldn't be measured as equal
Actually, if you read the post I said:

Quote:
Two defenders pace to similar shot, xgoals, and goal differentials, but one is higher event and the other is lower event.
The fact that shot, xgoals, and goals are all the same, would mean that the measure of quality is the same for both defenders.
The question was asking with two players equal in shot quantity, shot quality, and goal differentials, but only differ in the rate of which events happen relative to ice time.


Last edited by garret9: 07-17-2017 at 03:42 AM.
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Old
07-17-2017, 05:04 AM
  #498
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This is the correct answer, with the correct reasoning.
Do you think the loser point changes this logic during regular season? Are both (high or low event) equally likely to result in a tie?

During playoffs we are dealing with a different scenario as the average level of competition is constantly increasing and the definitions of weak/strong team would shift?

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07-17-2017, 08:04 AM
  #499
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
fun game to play:

Two defenders pace to similar shot, xgoals, and goal differentials, but one is higher event and the other is lower event.

Which one is the better player to have on a good team?
Which one is better to have on a weak team?
Is a and b different or the same?
Does the answer for a or b change if you are leading or trailing late?

I'll answer tomorrow.
The answer seems pretty easy. Basically it's the difference between the Jets and Leafs. 8 OT losses. That's what you get with consistency. Those OT losses Vs the Jets blowing up and getting zero points was the difference between the Leafs making the playoffs and the Jets missing.

But we always seems to disagree.

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07-17-2017, 10:25 AM
  #500
garret9
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Originally Posted by Calendal View Post
Do you think the loser point changes this logic during regular season? Are both (high or low event) equally likely to result in a tie?

During playoffs we are dealing with a different scenario as the average level of competition is constantly increasing and the definitions of weak/strong team would shift?
The better team you are, the higher pace you want the game to be, so that more events occur, so that less luck is involved in the final score.

Weak and strong doesn't shift, but the gap in talent decreases, further increasing variance/luck's impact. The increase in it being a series helps counteract that somewhat, though.

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